Cody Ponce: A Deep Dive, With Comparables

There is still so much to be determined about the Toronto Blue Jays' offseason. With the annual Winter Meetings having just wrapped up, plenty of time remains to see what paths the club will take to prepare for its defense of the AL pennant. 

However, it's very likely they have already made their biggest value move of the winter. Right-handed pitcher Cody Ponce is coming back across the Pacific for his second stint in the big leagues on a three-year, $30M deal, following a standout season in the KBO that won him their MVP award. DiamondCentric's own Brock Beauchamp and Owen Hill have already done some preliminary analysis on Ponce; you should read their articles if you aren't caught up on his profile (here and here). 

Ponce is coming off one of the best seasons a pitcher has ever had in the KBO. Across 29 starts that spanned 180 innings, he recorded a 1.89 ERA, striking out 36.2% of batters, walking just 5.9%, and allowing only 10 home runs. FanGraphs' batted ball pages show that he induced groundballs at a 45.7% clip, a notable increase from his 40.4% career mark in MLB. His rate of flyballs on the infield also increased. His hard contact rate fell off the table.

Thanks to pitching analyst Lance Brozdowski, we have some information on how Ponce went from being a castaway with a career MLB ERA of 5.86 to a KBO MVP. His average fastball velocity rose up a couple ticks, sitting at 95.5 mph and maxing out at 98. He added a new high-80s kick changeup. He makes use of five pitches in total, and could tinker with his arsenal to reacclimate to the big league level next year. The fact that he possesses plus velocity, intriguing off-speed shape, and arsenal diversity makes him projectable in both starting and relief roles. 

The changeup could prove to be Ponce's most consequential adjustment. When he was pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates, lefty hitters slashed .297/.336/.703 against him, striking out only 14.4% of the time. A better weapon to neutralize the handedness disadvantage would go a long way toward making him a serviceable pitcher in MLB, so the news of his revamped changeup is a big deal because his struggles against lefties were a primary reason why it didn't work out for him the first time.

Brozdowski mentions in his newsletter that his data shows Ponce's changeup averaged around 1300 rpm, but multiple big league teams that have access to other proprietary KBO pitch-tracking information have it closer to 800. Eno Sarris, analytics guru for The Athletic, has a separate data source that had the spin on Ponce's changeup even lower, down into 600 rpm territory. 

As such, I'm going to assume with reasonable confidence that the spin rate on this pitch is less than 1000 rpm. There are no public-facing pitch quality models for the KBO, but we have enough shape metrics here to draw comparisons. Using the past two seasons as my sample, I looked for off-speed pitches in MLB with profiles that closely align with Ponce's: velocity between 85 and 91 mph, induced vertical break between -1" and 5", arm-side break between 5" and 11", and less than 1000 rpm. I also focused my search on pitchers with similar deliveries to Ponce, only looking for arms that went 3" in either direction of Ponce's 6.3' release height and 6.5' extension. Only two pitchers met these criteria, and both throw splitters. Take a look: 

Blue Jays fans should be ecstatic about this. Martinez could release a feature film with the number of times he has been posted by Pitching Ninja, and Waldrep ran a 48.3 K% with his splitter in 2025. Both comps' off-speed pitches score as some of the sharpest in the game according to stuff models, which generates some intrigue about Ponce's ceiling.

The jump in fastball velocity is another reason why he's coming back to the highest level. His four-seamer averaged 93.2 when he was last here, so it's encouraging to have seen it closer to the upper 90s in Korea. Seventeen inches of carry with 95-96 on the radar gun is a recipe for a good fastball, except, as Brozdowski notes, the KBO ball is slightly different from the one MLB uses. That means Ponce should expect to achieve less rise on the pitch in North America, all else equal. Brozdowski projects 16 inches of carry and 9.5 inches of arm-side movement. While that's still an upgrade over the heater Ponce was using with the Pirates, it's not exactly inspiring. In terms of stuff, it compares well with a couple of pitchers in the Giants organization:

This is where I believe most of the grunt work lies for the Blue Jays' pitching department: How will they compensate for decreased four-seam usage? Push the cutter? Introduce a new slider shape? If the fastball touches 98, then it will still be useful on certain occasions, but sequencing is something that Ponce will have to think about differently than he did in Korea, especially if he's going to be a starter. On the other hand, could the Jays opt to worry less about arsenal diversity and plug him into a leverage role in the bullpen? The flexibility he comes with is part of what makes Ponce such a low-risk, high-reward signing.

The final aspect of his repertoire data I want to delve into further is the zone rate on his four-seam fastball. According to Brozdowski's data source, it was 47%. This looks low for someone who had an overall 5.9% walk rate, and Brozdowski has conceded that the KBO zone rates he has access to are likely inaccurate due to conflicting reports from other sources. Ponce's four-seamer had a zone rate between 54% and 55% in his time in the big leagues, making those inaccuracies seem feasible. In any case, it's worth evaluating how his ability to throw strikes will translate to the tougher competition of the big leagues. His career walk rate is a considerably-better-than-average 6.9% in 55.1 IP. In three seasons in Japan's NPB from 2022-2024, his walk rate sat firmly between 5% and 7%. Pretty solid and pretty consistent!

These hold up well when evaluating Ponce against other Americans who left to reinvent themselves in Korea before coming back stateside. Veteran starter Merrill Kelly, known for his strike-throwing ability, has been solid through seven MLB seasons since his return from the KBO. Erick Fedde and Kyle Hart reached similar heights to Ponce in 2023 and 2024, respectively, before coming back to MLB. Each pitcher had solid walk rates in Korea, and each one of them maintained a similar level of control after making the jump:

If those who came before him are any indication, Ponce's walk rate is not likely to suddenly balloon in Toronto next year.

With his imposing swing-and-miss pitch best used against opposite-handed hitters, increased fastball velocity, a solid pitch mix, and a consistent track record of avoiding walks, it's easy to see why the Blue Jays' brass was excited about the opportunity to bring Cody Ponce into the fold.

Rogers has money to spend, especially in the wake of the team's run to the 2025 World Series, but their ability to compete with the biggest spenders in the free agent market did not stop them from pursuing a cheaper arm that comes with serious upside.

The transition from Korea or Japan to MLB can be tough to size up, and it's not always linear, but there is enough information available about the physical profile of Ponce's weapons, as well as the pitchers whose careers have followed similar trajectories, to be confident in the heights he could reach with the Blue Jays. As this past year showed, supplementary additions can be the difference between being a competitive team and making a run towards a championship, and Ponce has the tools to play an instrumental role on a club with aspirations as high as Toronto's.