Can Louis Varland Be Trusted in the Postseason?

Blue Jays fans were excited about the trade acquisition of Louis Varland. He brought a 2.02 ERA over 49 innings, 17 holds, and a 47:21 strikeout-to-walk ratio to Toronto's bullpen. The 27-year-old started his Jays tenure strong, allowing one earned run and only four hits over his first six outings. However, a rough mid-August stretch has left the team with many questions about their once-hyped trade acquisition as the postseason approaches.

Starting August 15, Varland went six straight outings with at least one earned run allowed, and his September hasn't been much better. Through 8 2/3 innings, the righty has a 5.19 ERA, a 9:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has allowed batters to hit .281 off of him. These struggles have pushed him further down the bullpen depth chart with the Blue Jays fighting to hold onto their AL East lead. He did not pitch from September 16-22, which is highly unusual for a relief pitcher, as they are usually utilized every couple of games. He finally pitched 1 1/3 innings on September 23, but the Blue Jays were down three runs when Varland entered.

In an MLB.com interview at the end of August, manager John Schneider addressed Varland's struggles. "He has the ability to [succeed], and he's done that before. The last thing you want when you acquire a guy is to go, 'Why aren't you doing what you did before you got here?' It comes down to where he's throwing his fastball. Hitters are geared to hit velocity. You have to put it in the right spot."

At the time, Schneider was still anticipating gearing Varland up for high-leverage situations in the postseason. So, Varland's lack of usage in the past two weeks is surprising. All the more surprising is the news that Varland will open a bullpen game this evening.

The Blue Jays bullpen has had a roller coaster of a season, although some relievers have seen an improved September, and that's part of the reason Varland hasn't been needed as often. Braydon Fisher has been a major unexpected producer. He's bounced between Triple-A Buffalo and Toronto a few times this season, but the rookie has excelled since being recalled on September 5. 

Fisher had a 3.03 ERA through August, although that number was heavily skewed by a June in which he threw 13 1/3 innings and allowed zero earned runs. Since his recall, he's posted a 0.93 ERA and is holding batters to a .100 batting average against him. The only flaw in the righty's game has been the six walks he's given up in the month. Fisher has made a case for being on the postseason roster, which means Varland's spot could be determined by how the Blue Jays handle José Berríos, Trey Yesavage and Eric Lauer.

Berríos and Lauer have solid full-season numbers, but each has had a rough second half. Berríos pitched to a 3.75 ERA, a 97:41 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and held batters to a .238 batting average in the first half. Included in this was a 1.97 ERA in June. However, the 31-year-old has struggled mightily since July, posting a 5.15 ERA in the second half of the season.

The veteran starter has since been relegated to the bullpen, despite his displeasure with the move, saying, "Honestly, I don't feel happy to talk about it" (per Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling). Berríos had not pitched since September 16 before he took the mound yesterday and gave up three runs in two frames of relief. All of this may be a sign that he won't make the postseason roster. In addition, with the emergence of Yesavage, Berríos may become an offseason trade candidate.

Lauer had a stellar first half, earning a starting role due to Bowden Francis's injury. In this span, the lefty posted a 2.78 ERA, a 58:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and held batters to a .204 batting average. Since then, Lauer has posted a 3.97 ERA. His 41:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio is still impressive, but his batting average against has risen to .269. His struggles were particularly pronounced in August (5.30 ERA in four starts) before he moved to the bullpen in September. He has since produced a 4.70 ERA but an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in seven appearances.

Whether or not Lauer makes the postseason roster will likely depend on the number of left-handed batters Toronto's opponent has. If the opposition only has a couple of lefties or fewer, then Brendon Little may be the only left-handed pitcher to make the roster.

Yesavage made his highly anticipated debut on September 15 against the Tampa Bay Rays. He struck out nine and allowed one earned run on three hits. His second outing wasn't as stellar. Against the Kansas City Royals, the rookie allowed four earned runs on five hits with two strikeouts and three walks. He has one last chance to impress, as he is projected to throw on Saturday against the Rays again.

Fellow Jays Centre writer Jesse Burrill recently predicted that Varland would make the postseason roster, but Berríos, Yesavage, and Lauer have each presented a strong case at times throughout the season. It's going to be a tough decision for the Blue Jays to make regarding the final bullpen spot, only further complicated by the fact that Yesavage could earn a starting role, bumping Max Scherzer or Chris Bassitt to the bullpen or off the roster. If Varland does make the postseason roster, don't expect any appearances in tight situations. He'll likely only be seen if there's a few runs difference between the teams.