Predicting the Blue Jays' Roster for the ALDS

October is fast approaching, and while the Blue Jays own the American League's best record, playoff baseball is a different beast. One swing, one error, or one wild inning can decide everything in a five-game series. This makes the decision of who the Blue Jays put on their ALDS roster so much more critical.

All season, the Blue Jays have relied on getting small contributions from everyone on their roster. With active rosters shrinking from 28 players back down to 26 for the postseason, and with two injured players potentially coming back from the IL in time for the playoffs, the Blue Jays will have to make the tough decision to cut some players they have relied on this year.

Some of this is going to depend on which team the Blue Jays play and the pitchers they are projected to face, but until we know that, here is our best prediction of who the Blue Jays will have, and ultimately not have, on their playoff roster this October.

The Locks
C - Alejandro Kirk
C - Tyler Heineman
1B - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
INF - Ernie Clement
INF - Andrés Giménez
3B/RF - Addison Barger
OF - Daulton Varsho
DH/OF - George Springer
SP - Kevin Gausman
SP - Shane Bieber
RHP - Jeff Hoffman
RHP - Seranthony Domínguez
RHP - Yariel Rodríguez
LHP - Brendon Little

No real surprises on this list here. Kirk and Heineman have been the catching tandem all season. Guerrero, Springer and Varsho have been everyday regulars when they’ve been healthy. The infield has a bit of a logjam, but Clement, Giménez and Barger have been up almost all season and have played significantly for the team.

In a short series, starting pitching depth isn’t as necessary, but Gausman has been terrific in the second half, and you don't make the deadline trade for Bieber not to start him in a playoff game. There are some question marks in the bullpen, but Hoffman, Domínguez, Rodríguez, and Little have all had big moments this season, and assuming they are all healthy, they’ll be a part of the roster.

Should Be on the Roster
OF - Nathan Lukes
OF - Myles Straw
2B/LF - Davis Schneider
SP - Max Scherzer
SP - Chris Bassitt
RHP - Braydon Fisher
RHP - Louis Varland
RHP - Tommy Nance

There is a chance one of these players is left off the roster, but odds are all of them will be there. Lukes has been used in a platoon to hit at the top of the order against right-handers and is good defensively. Straw will be there mostly because of the elite defense and ability to pinch-run and steal a bag if needed. Schneider has now started in eight straight games against both right-handers and left-handers. He’s almost a lock at this point.

As for the pitchers, it seems like Scherzer and Bassitt will both be on the roster. Whether they start or pitch out of the bullpen remains to be seen, but they’re safe assumptions. Fisher has been so good since his recall (two hits, one run, 10 strikeouts in 8.0 IP), and unless he falls apart down the stretch, he’ll be on the roster. Varland was a key deadline acquisition. He has had his ups and downs with Toronto, but he's looked better as of late, and a 100-mph fastball will always play in the postseason.

Finally, Nance has had some big moments this year. You could argue he deserves to be higher than Fisher on the bullpen depth chart, and I wouldn't bat an eye. He’ll likely find his way onto the roster.

The Injured Tier
OF/DH - Anthony Santander
SS - Bo Bichette

These two players are the biggest question marks going into the final stretch. If Bichette is healthy come October, he’s playing every day, no question about it. The latest reports suggest that his regular season is over, and while he is working hard to get back as soon as possible, it's no guarantee he'll be available for the ALDS. If he’s unable to play, that makes Toronto's decision easier, but the Blue Jays are a better team when Bo is healthy and productive.

The second is Santander, who has been out since May 29 with a shoulder injury. He’s currently on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo, and he has two home runs during that time. My colleague Bryan Jaeger wrote a piece about how Santander's return to the lineup could make things complicated. John Schneider said on Wednesday that “[Santander] knows he needs to feel 100% and feel like himself physically, feel like himself performance-wise.”

Assuming Santander is ready to go, the Blue Jays will get a look at him down the stretch, and they can use that to assess whether or not he’ll be on the ALDS roster. The Blue Jays are 61-36 since Santander went down, showing they can win without him, but in the postseason, where one swing of the bat can change everything, having a power bat like Santander can be a difference maker, especially if he has the option to play some first base.

On the Bubble
1B - Ty France
INF - Isiah Kiner-Falefa
OF - Joey Loperfido
SP - Jose Berrios
RHP - Trey Yesavage
LHP - Eric Lauer

The Blue Jays are going to have to make some real difficult decisions here. Assuming Santander and Bichette are on the roster, then it becomes harder to carry Frane and Kiner-Falefa.

France has been solid since coming over at the deadline (.724 OPS) and has filled in admirably as a backup at first base. However, if the Blue Jays decide they can fill his spot with someone who can hit against left-handed pitching, you can see a scenario in which France is cut, especially as he’s started just once in the last six games.

Kiner-Falefa is in a similar boat. If Bichette is not on the roster, then IKF likely will be. The Blue Jays like his ability to handle the bat, and his ability to hit higher velocity fastballs may help him stay on the roster even if Bichette returns.

Loperfido deserves to be a big leaguer, but he’s been a victim of the roster crunch before and likely will again.

Lauer, who was relied on as a starter for much of the season, is now looking like the Blue Jays' second lefty out of the pen. If he can settle into that role over the next nine games, he likely has the lead over fellow southpaws Mason Fluharty and Justin Bruihl.

The really interesting question is what to do with Berríos and Trey Yesavage. Leo Morgenstern wrote a great piece about what the past week did to the Blue Jays' potential playoff rotation, and in it, he talked about how Berríos just may be the odd man out in a short series. With his 4.96 ERA since the trade deadline, and underlying numbers to support that, it's hard to imagine putting him in there, though it will be a hard conversation for the Blue Jays and Berríos to have.

Yesavage had an electric debut on Monday, and John Schneider said he’s going to get another start on Sunday against the Royals. If he has another strong performance to complement his first one, it's going to be almost impossible for the Jays not to put him on the roster, whether that's in the bullpen or the rotation. The team will have to get an exemption from Major League Baseball to include him on the playoff roster, but it has happened in the past, and Schneider said it's “very likely” they would get one.

Odds Aren't High
RHP - Bowden Francis
RHP - Nick Sandlin
RHP - Alek Manoah
LHP - Mason Fluharty
LHP - Justin Bruihl
RHP - Lazaro Estrada

Francis and Sandlin may have run out of time in their rehab and recovery programs and likely won't be ready to perform at an elite level. Manoah and Estrada are just too far down the depth chart. Fluharty may have a chance, especially if the Jays end up facing a team with a lot of left-handed hitters (the Yankees?), but he’s behind Lauer on the depth chart for now. Bruihl is presumably even further down the depth chart.

The Final Roster Prediction
Hitters
C - Alejandro Kirk
1B - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2B - Andrés Giménez
SS - Bo Bichette
3B - Ernie Clement
RF - Addison Barger
CF - Daulton Varsho
LF - George Springer
DH - Anthony Santander
BN - Davis Schneider
BN - Myles Straw
BN - Nathan Lukes
BN - Tyler Heineman

Pitchers
SP - Kevin Gausman
SP - Shane Bieber
SP - Chris Bassitt
SP - Max Scherzer
RHP - Jeff Hoffman
RHP - Seranthony Domínguez
RHP - Yariel Rodríguez
LHP - Brendon Little
RHP - Louis Varland
LHP - Eric Lauer
RHP - Trey Yesavage
RHP - Braydon Fisher
RHP - Tommy Nance

Notable Names Left Off the Roster
SP - José Berríos
INF - Isiah Kiner-Falefa
1B - Ty France
OF - Joey Loperfido

No matter which way the Blue Jays decide to go, some tough cuts are going to be inevitable. October baseball is a whole different ball game, and the choices the Blue Jays make over the next two weeks could be the difference between their season ending in heartbreak or ending with a fall parade in downtown Toronto.