Jeff Hoffman and the Ninth Inning Question

A little more movement on the fastball, a little more break on the slider, and Jeff Hoffman’s 2025 season would have been very different. Instead of uncertainty and frustration, there would be a fair share of joy and anticipation heading into 2026.

While the organization and, in particular, John Schneider and Ross Atkins have voiced confidence in Hoffman, he isn’t locked into the closer role as we approach pitchers and catchers reporting to Dunedin for spring training.

Few roles in professional sports carry as much symbolic weight as baseball's closer. The ninth inning is both a stage and a psychological test, and in 2025, Hoffman became the embodiment of that stress for a team that reached Game 7 of the World Series, only to see the outcome turn with one pitch.

Heading into 2026, Hoffman's status straddles high-leverage trust and the on-field inconsistency that is forcing the Jays to keep their options open.

Atkins and his front office have publicly hedged their bets. They’ve been praising Hoffman’s team-first flexibility while making clear he is not “married” to the closer role. That nuanced approach highlights modern bullpen philosophies.

Every team, not just the Jays, focuses on matchups, redundancy, and contingency when it comes to its bullpen. Similarly to why we don’t see as many complete games in modern-day baseball, dominant closers don’t rack up more than 50 saves in a season like they used to.

The all-time, single-season record for saves is 62, set by Francisco Rodríguez in 2008 while pitching for the Los Angeles Angels.

In 2025, Carlos Estévez led the majors with 42 saves for the Royals. By comparison, Hoffman had 33.

Hoffman has two years remaining on his three-year, $33 million deal with the Jays.

His contract was both a reunion and a bet on a late-career reinvention. Drafted ninth overall by Toronto in 2014, traded to the Rockies in 2015, and then rebuilt as a high-leverage reliever with the Phillies from 2023–24, Hoffman arrived back in Toronto to close.

For two years in Philadelphia, his numbers were elite. His ERA, strikeout rate and control earned him his first All-Star nod in 2024.

His arrival in Toronto wasn’t without a bit of controversy. There were reports that he had agreed to a three-year, $40 million contract with Baltimore. However, the Orioles apparently backed out after the physical.

Throughout his career, Hoffman has been known for his stuff. His splitter, slider and fastball, when on-time and well-located, miss bats at a high clip. That sort of arsenal is precisely what teams look for when they crown a closer.

Hoffman’s 2025 season was a roller coaster. The highlight was his 33 saves, but his 4.37 ERA across 68 innings with a 1.19 WHIP indicated some potential cracks in the armour. He gave up 15 home runs, second-most among all MLB relievers and the most among closers of similar save volume. He blew seven saves, tied for fourth-most in MLB, underscoring a season marked by peaks and valleys rather than steady state performance.

When things worked, they worked well. Hoffman carried a respectable strikeouts per nine innings of 11.12. That number was consistent with what he’d done with the Phillies, but the relinquished home run numbers last year were closing in on some of the challenges he’d had in that department when he played for the Rockies.

In the thin air of Denver in 2019, Hoffman gave up 2.70 home runs every nine innings and only managed 8.74 strikeouts per nine.

Across baseball, it is hard to find primary closers with more than 30 saves who allow double-digital homers, let alone 15.

Observers thought maybe Hoffman's shoulder was giving him trouble as the season wore on, but then came the playoffs, where he was lights out. He appeared in 10 games, picked up two saves, struck out 18 batters and had an ERA of 1.46.

Yet, one really bad pitch to Miguel Rojas basically wiped out that playoff dominance. As Hoffman put it himself, “I cost everybody in here a World Series ring.”

One pitch can change a career. There was another closer who gave up a big home run in a pivotal game that took place in Toronto. Phillies’ closer Mitch Williams gave up Joe Carter’s clinching home run in the 1993 World Series.

Williams didn’t fade right away – he pitched for the Astros (1994), Angels ('95), and Royals ('97) – but he was never able to regain his All-Star form.

To suggest the Jays aren’t mulling over their options when it comes to their 2026 closer is simply not realistic. Internal and external options are on the table.

Louis Varland took the ball in every situation possible during the playoffs (he pitched an MLB-record 15 times in one postseason), and there is no question that the coaching staff trusts him. He might be the team’s plan B option for the closer role.

This offseason has seen the Jays focus on bullpen redundancy. By signing Tyler Rogers to a multi-year deal, Toronto acquired an ultra-durable, submarine right-hander whose profile of groundball dominance, walk suppression, and late-inning inning-eating makes him a stabilizer in leverage.

Rogers projects as the top setup option and might be another possible closer if Hoffman’s home run problem persists.

Before Edwin Díaz signed with the Dodgers, there had been rumours that the Jays were interested in signing him. They had also been in discussions for the services of Ryan Helsley, Pete Fairbanks and Robert Suarez.

Unless a trade occurs prior to spring training, one would assume that Hoffman is the closer. However, he’ll have a short leash if he isn’t able to regain his command and cut down on the home runs.

A closer has a swagger and confidence that is often on full display. While Hoffman’s accountability was admirable following Game 7, it is crucial that he reestablishes himself heading into 2026; otherwise, he won’t be the closer for long.

The Jays have a short list of fill-ins should he falter. Schneider and Pete Walker will no doubt consider load management for Hoffman during the season to try to keep his arm as fresh as possible with the possibility of another long run in the playoffs ahead.

The 2026 season offers Hoffman a chance to recalibrate. It offers an opportunity to turn the memory of a poorly delivered pitch into the preface of a redemption arc built on precise command, smarter usage, and resilient psychology.

The closer title may rest with Hoffman on Opening Day, but the true story will be the collective late-inning machine the Blue Jays have engineered around him.

If he can cut the home run rate, lean into pitch-mix unpredictability and sustain playoff-level velocity and execution throughout the season, Hoffman’s 2026 could be a story of redemption.

Either way, Jeff Hoffman’s 2026 will be one of Major League Baseball’s most closely watched bullpen stories.