How To Get the Power Back in Toronto

The Blue Jays are currently in fourth place in the AL East and have the 11th-best record in the American League (prior to games on April 30). The difference between the Yankees in first place and the Blue Jays is four and a half games. Both teams have gone about the season in completely different fashions, though.

The Yankees have smashed and bashed their way to the top, with their offense performing at a record pace. The Blue Jays have been more methodical and tedious in their push to victories this year, with pitching taking the podium and shining more often in the team's victories. The Blue Jays rank 29th in baseball in home runs with only 16 on the season. Meanwhile, the Yankees have 51 home runs and are tied in first place in the category. That is a big and substantial difference between the two offenses, and for the Blue Jays to keep pace with the top of the American League, they will need to find ways to hit more home runs. What options are out there to improve the team's home run prowess?

Editor's note: This piece was written prior to the Blue Jays' power outburst against the Red Sox on April 30.

Lineup Improvements
The first place to look to find ways the Blue Jays can increase their home run total is the lineup. Currently, the main lineup for much of the year has consisted of: 

Bo Bichette - 0 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3 HR 
Anthony Santander - 3 HR
Andrés Giménez - 3 HR 
George Springer - 2 HR
Alejandro Kirk - 1 HR
Will Wagner - 0 HR 
Alan Roden - 1 HR
Ernie Clement/Nathan Lukes - 1 HR

*Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho have entered the lineup more recently, and both have 0 HR.

The lineup will get longer and more powerful now that Daulton Varsho is back; the center fielder returned from the injured list on Tuesday, April 29. The 28-year-old has a powerful bat (79 career home runs), which will give the lineup roughly six hitters who consistently have a chance to hit a home run. Varsho made some changes to his swing over the offseason and launched four home runs across 33 at-bats in spring training. If that carries over into the regular season, it will be a beautiful sight for the power-strapped Blue Jays. 

Exit Velocities and Swing Speed
The best way to hit a home run starts with exit velocity. The most important driving factor for high exit velocities is swing speed, and the Toronto Blue Jays are awful at that. We are talking about the absolute worst in the league right now (as of April 30). 

(Image via Baseball Savant)

(Image via Baseball Savant)

Only one Blue Jays hitter who has been in the lineup regularly is substantially better than league average (72 MPH) in swing speed: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He is sitting at an average swing speed of 75.9 MPH. The team as a whole is at 70.4 MPH. To add to this, only four teams are worse than the Blue Jays in their fast swing rate: the San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, and the Chicago White Sox.

This has to change, and it could change with an influx of some hitters who have their own flaws, but swing speed and power potential aren't included in them. Addison Barger (75.1 MPH this year), Orelvis Martinez (76.2 MPH last year), and Joey Loperfido (72.7 MPH last year), as well as Varsho (73.7 MPH last year) can all help improve the home run power on the field for the Blue Jays. Barger is now back with the Blue Jays. However, Martinez and Loperfido are off to slow starts at Triple A and need a lot more time right now to get back to their best selves.

Pull the Ball 
Another area that needs improvement for the Blue Jays to see a power surge is their pull rate on balls hit in the air. The Blue Jays rank 27th in baseball in pull rate at 37.3% (per FanGraphs). They rank 25th in flyball rate at a scary 35.2%. To cap it off, the Blue Jays have only hit 38.5% of their balls in play at what is considered a hard exit velocity (95+ mph). Add this all together with the low swing speeds, and it paints a troubling picture of the Blue Jays at the moment.

Players Normalizing to their Career Averages
Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Anthony Santander have combined for just six home runs on the season across 380 plate appearances. This isn't to be expected to continue over the course of the season for the trio, who the team was counting on to hit closer to 80 home runs as a group coming into the year. Last season, though, the trio hit just five home runs combined from April 1 to April 30. It could just be a slow start again this season. After April 30 last year, Guerrero Jr. and Santander alone combined for roughly 70 home runs. Hopefully, as the weather warms up, the bats will do so again as well. 

Change in Hitting Philosophy 
Different year, new hitting coach, same results. No power, but fewer strikeouts. It isn't working and must change. For one thing, the Blue Jays need to start swinging at more middle-middle offerings. As of April 30, they rank tied for last place in swing rate on such pitches, according to Joshua Rodrigues.

Hitting mistake pitches is a thing of the past with this front office in charge, and the problem has remained across hitting coaches. The fact that the Jays have only swung at 69.1% of pitches over the middle of the plate is atrocious. They have to swing the bat and make pitchers pay for mistakes over the heart of the plate. 

What's Next?
The Toronto Blue Jays have played well at times despite their lack of home runs. They are still only 2.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race. If they can finally start to improve in this area, they could take the leap to become a top-of-the-AL team. To do this, they need to think about making some lineup changes; Varsho will help, but he alone is not enough. Beyond that, the Blue Jays need to increase their swing speeds across much of the major league roster. This will be easier said than done with the season already in full swing, but given how low their swing speed is as a group, something needs to happen now and in the future.

A center field and opposite field approach at the plate has led the Blue Jays to post a fine team batting average, but they need to pull the ball more to do damage on pitches and put more runs on the scoreboard. The stringing singles together approach hasn’t worked well for more than a season. They need to swing the bat on mistakes over the plate as well. Lastly, be patient with the big hitters. Guerrero Jr. and Santander started slow in the power department last season and then took off with a flurry of home runs. The same thing looks to be probable this season.