Eight Bold Predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025: Part Three

Blue Jays fans! The time has finally come to stop reflecting on the disappointment that was 2024 and to turn the page (or throw the old calendar in the trash and replace it with a new one). Let's start looking ahead to what 2025 has in store for our Blue Jays. Will it be a year of making deals with long-time friends, fresh faces carving out their space on the team, and exceeding expectations? Or will the sequel be worse than the original? Only time will tell, but as 2025 is such a pivotal year for the Blue Jays — imminent free agents, young players stepping into bigger roles, and veterans looking to play key roles — I figured I’d take a stab at coming up with some bold predictions for what lies ahead in the next calendar year. This is the third of a four-part series that will run all week. You can read part one here and part two here. Let's keep it going.

5. Andrés Giménez swipes 30 bases.

“But Owen, 30 stolen bases isn’t even that many! I thought these were supposed to be BOLD predictions!”

Well reader, that statement would be completely correct! While stealing 30 bags in a season is nothing to sneeze at, it’s not by any means a feat that gets remembered for generations. Since 2014, there have been 115 total 30-steal seasons. For reference, there have nearly 200 more 30-homer seasons over the same timeframe (thanks, Stathead). So what’s so bold about predicting 30 steals for Giménez? 

The last time a Blue Jay stole 30 bases was in 2014, when José Reyes stole exactly 30. Since then it has been nine full seasons (nobody in stole 30 in 2020) in which the Jays have not had a player steal 30 bases. Only two teams in baseball, the Chicago White Sox and the San Francisco Giants are in the midst of longer droughts. But is stealing bases really that important? 

I’m glad you asked! Since Major League Baseball made the bases larger in 2023, 22 of 60 team seasons (30 teams x 2 seasons) have resulted in at least 750 runs scored. In 18 of those 22 seasons, that team stole at least 100 bases. A two-year sample size is hardly enough to call it a trend, but nearly 82% of teams that scored at a rate well above the average team are also placing an emphasis on the stolen base. 

The Blue Jays have entered spring training the last couple of seasons saying that they were going to look to find ways to be more aggressive on the bases, but haven’t reached the 100 stolen bases since 2013 (112), although they did get close in 2023 (99). The question marks on the offensive side of the ball are very apparent, and the team is starving for power hitters, but with serious questions about the budget to spend on free agents, and a very lackluster offseason so far, stealing more bases could be a way for the Jays to improve their offensive production. 

By bringing in Giménez, who has swiped exactly 30 in each of the last two seasons, the Jays will almost certainly improve on their stolen base total from a year ago. If the Jays place as much of an emphasis on baserunning and stealing as I think they should, Giménez should be a lock to steal 30 bases. And that’s a good thing! The stolen base is one of the more entertaining plays in the game and it leads directly to runs!

6. Yimi García does NOT lead the Blue Jays in saves.

[Editor's Note: Owen wrote and filed this prediction mere hours before the Blue Jays signed Jeff Hoffman to be their new closer on Saturday night. It's no longer a particularly bold prediction, but on the bright side, Owen may actually be capable of seeing the future.]

It’s always tough to be positive about one of the two bullpens in baseball worth negative fWAR in 2024, so bear with me here.

Among all of the things that led to the Blue Jays being the seventh-worst team in baseball in 2024, the league-worst bullpen was certainly one of the more concerning pieces of the puzzle. In their dedication to putting a winning product on the field, Ross Atkins and the Jays simply can’t afford to head into 2025 with their bullpen looking anything like it looked at the end of 2024. 

Seven different Blue Jays combined for just 36 saves last year, with Chad Green picking up the bulk of them with 17. While Green’s results weren’t bad, he outperformed his expected stats by a fair bit and struggled towards the end of the season. He’s much better suited for a seventh-inning setup role than the closer spot. With the departure of longtime closer Jordan Romano (who hardly factored in last season due to injury), John Schneider and Pete Walker will need a permanent solution at closer if the bullpen is going to be a strength. To the credit of the front office, the team has made moves made to address the bullpen. Right-handed reliever Nick Sandlin was acquired for Spencer Horwitz as part of the Giménez trade, and even though you may have to squint a little bit to see it, he might have the stuff to get some important outs in the middle innings. I wrote up my thoughts on Sandlin in my breakdown of the trade.

The Jays have also signed Josh Walker, a left-handed reliever with limited big-league experience but impressive peripherals at Triple A. In a victory for nominative determinism, Walker rarely hit the strike zone and walked an alarming 13.4% of the batters he faced. However, he allowed a minuscule 26.7% hard-hit rate while running an extremely high 34.7% whiff rate. If he can figure out some semblance of command, he's more than a lottery ticket.

But by far the highest profile addition to the bullpen so far this winter has been the return of old friend Yimi García, who inked a two-year deal in December after spending the second half of the season with the Seattle Mariners. García was nothing but great in his time with Jays, especially in the first half of last year. However, he battled injuries and struggled to a 6.00 ERA across nine innings in 10 appearances with the Mariners. When García is feeling good, there aren't many pitchers with a more electric fastball-slider combo, and there’s not a whole lot of concern that he won't return to that form to start the 2025 season. It’s important to note that he’ll turn 35 in August and he has a lot of miles on his arm, so I’ll be interested to see how he holds up as the season goes on. Consensus at this point is that García will slot into that closer role, but to me, he’s clearly at his best when he can be used in a stopper’role. He’s the guy I want coming out of the pen against the heart of the order in the seventh or eighth inning.

So here’s where the prediction comes in: it might be wishful thinking, but I think the Blue Jays think about García in a similar way that I do and intend to either find another reliever with big stuff via trade, free agency, or internal options. There are still a bunch of relievers with closer experience available on the free agent market: Kenley Jansen, Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, David Robertson, and Carlos Estévez, to name a few. Guys like Ryan Helsley and Camilo Doval have had trade rumours swirling around them all winter.

I have to admit that I tried pretty hard to find something I really liked about an internal option, but definitely couldn’t find anyone I would prefer to close over García. If Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Zach Pop, or Brendan Little wanted to show up to spring training and run away with the closing job, I’d throw a party, but I expect if I’m going to hit on the bet that García doesn’t lead the team in saves, I suspect it’ll end up being because an external option is added to the mix.