Eight Bold Predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025: Part Two

Blue Jays fans! The time has finally come to stop reflecting on the disappointment that was 2024 and to turn the page (or throw the old calendar in the trash and replace it with a new one). Let's start looking ahead to what 2025 has in store for our Blue Jays. Will it be a year of making deals with long-time friends, fresh faces carving out their space on the team, and exceeding expectations? Or will the sequel be worse than the original? Only time will tell, but as 2025 is such a pivotal year for the Blue Jays — imminent free agents, young players stepping into bigger roles, and veterans looking to play key roles — I figured I’d take a stab at coming up with some bold predictions for what lies ahead in the next calendar year. This is the second part of a four-part series that will run all week. You can read part one here. Let's keep it going.

3. Bo Bichette finishes the 2025 season with the Blue Jays.

Predicting the future of pending free agents is always difficult, because the circumstances surrounding both the player and their potential suitors is constantly changing up until the moment a contract is signed. In Bo Bichette’s case, I think it’s as complex as any free agent in recent years. Here's a list of seven ways that you could finish a sentence that starts with, "Bo Bichette..." and still be telling the truth:

• ...has been the subject of rumours saying he’d welcome a trade away from Toronto.
• ...was also quoted just months ago saying his goal is to stay with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and win a World Series in Toronto.
• ...will be eligible for free agency at just 27 years old.
• ...isn't an absurd comp for Willy Adames, who is three years older and just signed seven-year, $182-million deal with the Giants.
• ...has been an elite offensive shortstop in five of his six seasons.
• ...is coming off of the only poor season of his career (but it was really poor).
• ...is  likely not going to be able to stick at shortstop very deep into his next contract.

WOOF, that’s a lot to consider.

Luckily for Bo and the Blue Jays, there’s no need for an immediate solution. Also working in the favour of both parties: Bichette’s success directly leads to the Blue Jays’ success. This is why I think Bichette is going to survive at least one more transaction window as a Blue Jay. He will enter spring training of his walk year healthy and looking to prove he’s same guy was in his first five seasons. The Blue Jays will enter spring training looking to add between 14 and 18 wins to their 2024 total of (yikes) 74. The success of one directly depends on the success of the other. 

The way the roster is currently constructed, if the Jays are going to compete, they need a productive, healthy Bichette. A productive, healthy Bichette result in wins, and if the team is winning, there’s no WAY it can trade its star shortstop even if he’s on an expiring contract. In-fact, if the team shows even the slightest amount of competence, I have no doubt that Ross Atkins, knowing this is probably his last chance to build a team in Toronto, will be uber-aggressive to supplement the roster via trade mid-season. 

Now, there’s another possible outcome that’s definitely a lot less fun: If Bo Bichette puts up even just a mediocre season, I have a hard time seeing the Jays' being good enough to compete, even for a wildcard spot. Is there a chance that a scenario like this leads to roster Armageddon and everyone with less than three years of control and a pulse gets traded? Absolutely. But if Bichette fails to recoup his value, the return he'd command half of a season of play is probably worth less than the chance to attach him to a qualifying offer, try and retain him on a 1+1 contract, and receive a compensation pick if he declines. This would give him a chance to put together a performance worth the massive contract he thinks he’s worth. Either way, Bichette finishes the season with the team.

A final thought: The Jays haven’t been shy about letting important players walk in free agency; see Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, and Matt Chapman. Danny Jansen would likely also have been allowed to walk as a free agent if he weren’t traded at the 2024 trade deadline because the team was out of contention. If you’re in the Make Bo a Blue Jay For Life camp, it doesn’t bode well that the Jays haven’t re-signed any of the guys above, but my prediction is that he finishes the season with the Jays, not that he’s on the Opening Day roster in 2026!

4. Alan Roden starts more games in the outfield than Joey Loperfido.

I want to make this as much as possible about buying Alan Roden stock, rather than selling Joey Loperfido stock, so I’ll start by saying this: I am in LOVE with Joey Loperfido’s tools. I think the defensive skills have elite potential, and the power potential is extremely exciting. Last year, Loperfido mashed throughout the minor leagues and earned a promotion to the bigs with 13 homers and a .933 OPS over 39 games in Triple A. But for all his minor-league numbers offer us to dream on, his big league-performance represents a startling wake up call. He really struggled with the leap, striking out in 36.3% of his plate appearances, and hitting for almost no power. It's dangerous to put too much stock in the Baseaball Savant sliders, but that's a lot of blue in a lot of extremely important categories.

Loperfido chased too much, didn't make enough contact, and didn't hit the ball hard enough. On the other hand, no one should be writing off the tooled-up 25 year old after 81 games in the show, and I certainly am not. He did show solid bat speed, and that's important because in small sample sizes, it's very predictive of future performance. Still, if Loperfido flounders in a similar way to start 2025, I think the leash will be short on a team desperate for a playoff appearance.

As for Roden, I think he was the reason the Jays were comfortable with moving on from Spencer Horwitz, and his profile is going to immediately translate to the Major Leagues. Speaking of guys that have mashed at every level of the minor leagues, Roden’s high-contact approach has led to consistent production across all levels of the minor leagues. In three seasons across four minor-league levels, Roden owns a .298 batting average and .860 OPS. When he was drafted in the third round in 2022, there were some serious doubts that he’d ever be able to hit for enough power to be a productive major leaguer, but I think you’d be hard-pressed to find an expert who doesn’t think Roden can stick in the bigs right now. He hit 16 homers across 125 games in the upper minors last season without sacrificing much in the way of contact or on-base skills. He walked nearly as much as he struck out, and Steamer projects that he'll run a 110 wRC+ in the majors this season.

Roden is not expected to be a particularly good defender, but with Varsho and Springer in center and right and a really solid infield, I’m okay with trading some defence for offence in left field. I doubt Roden will make the club out of spring training. He’d need a spot on the 40-man roster, and other are several outfielders in the mix who will continue to factor in the team's decisions throughout the 2025 season, such as Jonatan Clase, Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Steward Berroa, and of course Loperfido, Springer and Varsho. However, with Varsho expected to miss the first month of the season, and the offence in desperate need of some dudes who can swing the bat, it's possible that the Jays could push the agenda and give Roden some run. On the other hand, they could sign Anthony Santander and completely change the outlook of the outfield and team as a whole, but I believe Roden could earn a spot on this team even with Santander in the mix. 

If Loperfido gets off to a slow start, and Roden has a strong spring training, I think Alan Roden will find himself on the Rogers Centre turf a lot this summer.