The 2027 Pitching Picture: Should the Blue Jays Say “Cheese”?

[Jim Scott]

The 2027 Blue Jays rotation should begin with Dylan Cease, José Soriano, Trey Yesavage and Cody Ponce.  But the fifth starter position is still up in the air.  Toronto could sign an aging veteran – think Max Scherzer, Sonny Gray or Robbie Ray.  Or they could try to sign a younger pitcher on a longer-term contract, like a Michael Soroka, or trade for a younger arm like Logan Gilbert or Shane McClanahan.  They could (but likely won’t) break the bank for Tarik Skubal.  Or they could try to fill the position internally, with Jake Bloss, Spencer Miles, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ricky Tiedemann the most frequently mentioned candidates.

But might there be another, under-the-radar option?

Start by describing what a fifth starter looks like.  It is not a Skubal.  An average fifth starter (hat tip to Bob Ritchie for his analysis) gives 100-120 innings at an ERA of 4.75-5.25.  Some teams will skip the No. 5 when there is an off day, so their top four starters can pitch on their normal days' rest.  If the No. 5 can give a consistent five innings and keep his team in the game, he is getting the job done.

So let’s talk about Chad “Cheese” Dallas.

First, the usual small sample size caveat.  Cheese pitched only 14 MLB innings in 2026, so without question he would have to prove himself in 2027 spring training.  But his 2026 statistics do merit a long look.

Start with Dallas’s stuff+.  He has five pitches, every one of which has a Stuff+ less than 100 (which means every one is below MLB average).  This sub-100 performance might seem a disqualifier.  But there are many pitchers who have survived (and in some cases, thrived) with variety and command without having a Misiorowski fastball or Skenes curve.  Consider the following example, from 2026 performance:

Kevin Gausman and José Soriano each had a Stuff+ of 97.3 in 2026 – exactly the same as Dallas.  Their overall Pitching+ was higher in both cases because their Location+ was higher (i.e., better command and control).  But Dallas’ 5.02 BB/9 in 2026 was an outlier.  In 2023 and 2024, in Double A and Triple A, his walk rate was consistently in the mid-threes.  So there is room for optimism that his Location+ will improve with more MLB experience.

Next, look at Dallas’ 2026 performance (with the SSS caveat).  His ERA of 5.02 was unimpressive, but it came with an xERA of 3.49, an xBA of .214, a chase rate of 35%, and a barrel rate of 5.1%.  Those are all good-to-excellent – far beyond expectations for a No. 5.

Statcast has a feature where, for any pitcher, it shows the pitcher (or pitchers) who are the most similar in terms of velocity, pitch arsenal, and pitch usage.  For Dallas, Statcast says that the closest match is Max Meyer of Miami.  The similarities are obvious. Meyer has a similar Stuff+, and in the first four years of his career, he had a 5.29 ERA with a 4.74 xERA.  But in 2026 – Meyer’s first year with 100+ innings – he put up a 2.68 ERA and a 3.88 xERA for a 2.3 fWAR.  If Cheese could produce anything close to those numbers, he would be one of the best No. 5 starters in baseball.

One more advantage is Dallas’ cost.  He is still pre-arbitration, and so will command far less than the $10-15 million that a Scherzer or Bieber might demand.  If the CBA negotiations place increased pressure on team payrolls, $10-15 million of savings might be significant in terms of other Blue Jays options.

Dallas does come with red flags.  He had Tommy John surgery in September 2024 and missed all of the 2025 season.  But in 2026 he pitched a total of 85 innings (Buffalo and Toronto combined), so it would not be unreasonable to expect 100-120 from him in 2027.  He also struggled against left-handed batters.  But the Jays will be looking for starts for Spencer Miles, who has a career (same SSS caveat) xERA of 3.67 against left-handers (and a 2.79 xERA against lefties at the Rogers Centre).  So if Dallas were set to face an elite left-handed batting lineup, Miles might be an option instead.

There are also wild cards to consider.  The elephant in the room is the potential lockout, which could delay the start of the season long enough for players like José Berríos and Bowden Francis to return.  Even if the season starts on time, the return of those players could limit Dallas’s second-half playing time.  That might not be an entirely bad thing, however, given his 2024 surgery and long recovery.

The Bottom Line

Some pitchers are dramatic.  Like a Tyler Rogers (who – trivia question time! – had the highest Stuff+ of any pitcher in MLB in 2026) or a Dylan Cease (likely the runner-up in 2026 Cy Young voting).  But there are also many pitchers who just quietly, calmly and consistently get the job done.  Think Mark Buehrle, for most of his career, or Marco Estrada, or R.A. Dickey.  Those workhorses bring significant value too, and if it is possible that Chad Dallas could become one of them, the Jays might well want to “say Cheese!”

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