Would an 81-81 Season Be a Success for the Blue Jays?

[Sam Charles]

There are really two answers to the question of whether a .500 season would constitute success for the Toronto Blue Jays. The first is simple. No. This was not supposed to be an 81-win baseball team. At the same time, there are so many reasons that it could have been much worse.

Toronto entered 2026 as the defending American League champion after winning 94 games in 2025 and coming so close to a World Series title. Some players left or weren’t re-signed, while the team spent some money for the likes of Dylan Cease, Tyler Rogers and Kazuma Okamoto.

Judged against that standard, finishing 81-81 would be a disappointment.

Based on what actually happened to the Jays this season, including injuries and underperformance, getting back to .500 in a sense would be a success.

Toronto enters September 21 at 77-79, meaning it will need to go 4-2 over its final six games simply to reach 81-81. The Jays sit fourth in the AL East, 18.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and their playoff odds have nearly disappeared.

The front office built a roster that they expected would return the Jays to the postseason.

FanGraphs' ZiPS preview noted that the organization had committed $336 million in guaranteed money to new players during the winter, nearly $100 million more than the rest of the AL East's free agent spending combined at that point.

At this stage of Toronto's competitive cycle, it felt like success needed to involve postseason baseball.

Instead, the Blue Jays enter September 21 with a 77-79 record, 629 runs scored and 671 allowed, producing a minus-42 run differential. Based on these results, the analysis suggests the team should be an even worse 73-83.

At the 150-game mark, the Jays had only 147 home runs, placing the team 26th among MLB clubs, while its .698 OPS wasn't close to contender-level power.

Baseball Savant had Toronto at an 87.5 mph average exit velocity, compared with an MLB average of 88.8. Only 34.1 percent of batted balls by Jays hitters qualified as hard-hit, compared with 38.6 percent league-wide. Meanwhile, their 5.9 percent barrel rate trailed the MLB rate by nearly two percent.

Content was part of the secret sauce of last year’s team. The team continues to make contact. Its team whiff rate was only 22.4 percent, better than MLB's 25.0 percent rate.

Their actual team wOBA was .306, but their expected wOBA was even lower at .297. Their actual .385 slugging percentage exceeded their .366 expected slugging percentage.

At the centre of these challenging numbers is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Entering the weekend, Guerrero was hitting approximately .261/.334/.359, with nine home runs and a 96 wRC+. FanGraphs had him at just 1.1 WAR.

ZiPS had projected Guerrero for 32 home runs, 102 RBI, a 145 wRC+ and roughly 4.5 WAR in 2026.

There is at least evidence that Guerrero has hit better than the traditional results suggest.

Baseball Savant gives him a .284 expected batting average, .407 expected slugging percentage and .336 xwOBA. His 44.4 percent hard-hit rate and 90.5 mph average exit velocity remain better than Toronto's team averages.

Injuries have wreaked havoc on the 2026 season. Anthony Santander’s injury-plagued Jays tenure continued in 2026. José Berríos underwent Tommy John surgery in May after elbow problems and has missed the season. Bowden Francis also underwent Tommy John surgery and was lost for 2026.

Cody Ponce's year ended nearly before it started with an ACL injury. Mid-season addition Jameson Taillon has been lost because of elbow inflammation. Shane Bieber has been sidelined by teres major inflammation. Trey Yesavage required arthroscopic knee surgery and will be limited in his return.

And this weekend's news that Cease had undergone an MRI on his shoulder is yet another concerning piece of news.

Yimi García underwent thoracic outlet surgery earlier this season, after attempting a return, and is done for the season. Addison Barger required elbow surgery. Luis Urías has dealt with a quadriceps strain.

That isn’t even the full list. The coaching staff and front office have been juggling and adjusting throughout the season.

Perhaps the biggest reason this team has remained anywhere near .500 is that portions of the pitching staff have been excellent.

Despite some blips of late, Cease has had a monster of a season. Through 29 starts, Cease has thrown 169 innings with a 2.40 ERA, a 2.55 FIP and a staggering 34.9 percent strikeout rate. FanGraphs credits him with 5.5 WAR.

Louis Varland has been a shutdown closer, posting a 1.30 ERA and 1.81 FIP over 76 innings, worth approximately 3.0 fWAR. His 31.7 percent strikeout rate against a 7.3 percent walk rate was probably better than expected.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 95-60, with the New York Yankees at 89-66 and Boston Red Sox at 84-72. Toronto, at 77-79, sits fourth.

As the defending American League Champs, this season has been a painful fall.

Even if the team can sweep their remaining games, this season has come up short of expectations.

Measured against the injuries, underperformance and adversity the club endured, fighting back to .500 might be one of the few positive storylines.

The Jays' outlook for whenever MLB returns remains brighter than their 2026 record suggests. Much will depend on the health of the pitching staff and whether key offensive contributors rebound to expected levels. The organization still has a strong core under their control and a front office willing to invest.

If several injured players return healthy, Guerrero rediscovers his form and its younger core progresses, the 202? Jays should contend.

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