Eric Lauer Loses Arbitration Hearing

[Leo Morgenstern]

Last week, Eric Lauer and the Blue Jays argued their cases in front of an arbitration panel. Earlier today, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith reported that the Jays won the hearing. That means Lauer will earn $4.4 million for the 2026 season instead of the $5.75 million figure he filed at.

Ultimately, $1.35MM in savings is pocket change for the Blue Jays, as is the $1.215 million this will save them on their 2026 luxury tax bill. 

However, this result is interesting because of the precedent it sets. As I wrote last week:

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Lauer's case is an unusual one. The lefty earned $5.075 million from the Brewers in 2023, his second year of arbitration eligibility. He did not pitch in the majors in 2024, splitting his time between the Pirates' and Astros' Triple-A affiliates and the KBO's Kia Tigers, and he joined the Blue Jays on a minor league contract in 2025. As a result, he was still eligible for one more year of arbitration entering 2026. 

Typically, salaries do not decrease in arbitration. If a team isn't willing to give a player a raise, they simply won't tender him a contract. Lauer is also coming off what was arguably just as strong a season as his last campaign prior to arbitration; according to fWAR, bWAR, and WARP, he was more valuable in 2025 than he was in 2022. With that in mind, it would seem to be a given that Lauer would win his hearing, since he asked for $675,000 more than $5.075 million, while the Blue Jays countered with $675,000 less. 

The fact that Lauer will make less money in 2026 (his third year in the arbitration system) than he earned in 2023 (his second year in the system) is bad news not just for Lauer, but for future players who find themselves in a similar position.

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[John_Havok]

Yeah, but when your 2nd and 3rb arb years are 3 seasons apart... its not that common of a scenario.

It's odd, but its not gonna break the system.

Whats more odd is why the Jays felt it was necessary to be combative about just over 1 million dollars when they've signed Vlad and Cease to mega deals, and tried to sign multiple others to them as well. Why nickle and dime this guy?