Where ZiPS and Steamer Differ the Most on the Blue Jays’ Hitters

[Leo Morgenstern]

Projection season continues! ZiPS is now available on FanGraphs player pages and the 2026 projections leaderboard, which means I can start one of my favourite pre-season exercises: comparing the ZiPS and Steamer projections to see where they differ. 

ZiPS and Steamer, both housed at FanGraphs, are two of the most well-known, widely used, and consistently accurate projection systems available. They’re also the two systems FanGraphs averages to calculate their Depth Charts projections. At first thought, it might seem strange to mash two projection systems together, but as it turns out, projection systems are stronger together than they are apart. 

We’ve been citing Steamer here at Jays Centre throughout the offseason. Earlier this month, Matthew Creally took a close look at the recently published Blue Jays’ ZiPS. Today, I’m going to identify the hitters for whom these two projection systems offer notably different outlooks. 

Before I dive into that, however, I’d like to acknowledge a couple of general trends I noticed in my research. For one thing, Steamer is a pessimist when it comes to defense. It also projects much wider platoon splits than ZiPS, particularly regarding numbers against left-handed pitchers. I think this is because Steamer plays things safer than ZiPS. Defensive stats are famously volatile, and the fact that right-handed hitters tend to be more effective than left-handed hitters against left-handed pitchers is backed by more than a century of evidence. When faced with uncertainty, it’s less risky to project defensive metrics closer to zero, and it’s easier to presume righties will thrive with the platoon advantage and lefties will struggle without it. Yet, ironically enough, there can be danger in playing things too safe. 

The Steamer projections are an important reminder that regression to the mean comes for everyone. ZiPS offers what look like more nuanced and individualized prognostications. With all that said, let’s dive in.

RJ Schreck

Even the best projection systems have wide error bars for prospects. Simply put, neither Steamer nor ZiPS has much data to work with here. 

That’s precisely why Schreck’s projections jump off the page. Most minor leaguers have very similar (and very mediocre) ZiPS and Steamer projections. Schreck, however, has a 12-point difference in his projected wRC+ figures. Steamer sees him putting up an unremarkable 96 wRC+, but ZiPS envisions an impressive 108 wRC+. 

That’s because ZiPS buys into the big power he’s shown off at Double and Triple A, projecting him for 17 home runs and a .189 ISO in 104 games. 

Of course, a lot would have to go wrong for Schreck to get to play 104 games for the Blue Jays, but it’s nice to think that if a lot does go wrong, the Jays will have a talented lefty slugger in Buffalo they can call upon.

That is, if you trust ZiPS more than Steamer. Unfortunately, I’m worried ZiPS is too optimistic about Schreck’s skills against same-handed pitching. ZiPS and Steamer project relatively similar numbers for Schreck against righties: a .744 OPS and a .715 OPS, respectively. However, ZiPS projects him for a .700 OPS against southpaws, while Steamer has him struggling to a .597 OPS. Considering Schreck has posted wide platoon splits so far in the minors (.862 OPS vs. RHP, .757 OPS vs. LHP), I’m not confident he could close that gap in his first season at the game’s highest level.

Joey Loperfido

ZiPS sees Loperfido as a league-average hitter. Combine that with good speed and solid outfield defense, and we’re looking at a player who deserves regular major league playing time. Steamer, on the other hand, projects Loperfido for an 85 wRC+. Unless you can field like Andrés Giménez, that’s unplayable.  

Once again, it’s mostly a matter of platoon splits. ZiPS is higher on Loperfido in general, but Steamer really doesn’t have any confidence that the young lefty bat can hit same-handed pitching. Only time will tell which projection is more accurate, but the good news is that he has reverse platoon splits in his minor league career (.834 OPS vs. RHP, .883 OPS vs. LHP).

It’s hard to see a path to playing time for Loperfido on the 2026 Blue Jays, but he’ll help his case if he keeps mashing lefties in the minors.

Daulton Varsho

ZiPS will tell you Varsho is a borderline All-Star. According to Steamer, he’s bordering on mediocre. That’s largely due to the latter underestimating his defense; the Gold Glove center fielder somehow has a negative defensive projection from Steamer. However, ZiPS is also much more optimistic that Varsho can maintain the huge power he flashed in 2025. His ZiPS projected ISO (.232) is the highest on the team, while his Steamer projected ISO (.205) is 27 points lower. 

I hate to sound like a broken record, but once again, it comes down to platoon splits. Varsho has long struggled against southpaws, particularly in the power department. ZiPS is confident he can change that in 2026, projecting an ISO well above his previous career high. Steamer is far less optimistic. 

Alejandro Kirk

Finally, a player with better offensive projections from Steamer than ZiPS! Why might that be? Well, because Kirk bats right-handed. 

Okay, there’s more to it than that. Steamer just really likes Kirk’s bat, projecting him for a 122 wRC+. That’s nine points higher than his ZiPS wRC+ projection. However, as has consistently been the case, Steamer projects a much wider platoon split than ZiPS. Steamer expects Kirk to crush lefties for an .813 OPS. That’s well above his career average, and it would be his highest since 2021 – when he only faced a lefty 60 times. 

Overall, ZiPS still projects Kirk for more WAR than Steamer does, but that goes back to Steamer undervaluing defense. If Kirk can match his Steamer projection at the plate and his ZiPS projection behind it, he’ll have the best season of his career.

Kazuma Okamoto

Toronto’s lone addition to the lineup is a major wild card. Okamoto was a superstar in Japan, but translating NPB stats to MLB is never easy. So, it isn’t surprising that the righty slugger has an eight-point gap between his Steamer and ZiPS wRC+ projections. ZiPS thinks he’ll strike out a bit more, but it sees him making up for that with a higher walk rate and a little more power. 

While Okamoto's ZiPS stats are more impressive, this one doesn't have anything to do with varying platoon projections. The projected magnitude of the difference between his OPS against righties and lefties is almost identical in both systems. Each suggests his OPS will be about 40 points higher when he has the platoon advantage.

Anthony Santander

Santander’s platoon split projections are particularly interesting, given that he’s a switch-hitter. There’s only a one-point difference between his projected OPS against right-handers according to Steamer and ZiPS. However, his ZiPS projection against left-handers is 71 points higher than his Steamer projection. To put that another way, ZiPS sees him as a slightly better hitter from the right side, while Steamer sees him as a significantly better hitter from the left side. 

To make things more confusing, Santander has been a roughly equally productive hitter against righties and lefties throughout his career. He strikes out a lot more against southpaws, but he also draws more walks and has seen much better results on balls in play. So, I’m inclined to trust the more balanced ZiPS projections.

Andrés Giménez

Giménez is a fun one because his overall offensive projections from ZiPS and Steamer are almost identical. Yet, ZiPS sees him as a similarly poor hitter against righties and lefties alike, while Steamer suggests he’ll be roughly league average against righties but really quite ineffective against lefties. Those are two very different offensive profiles. 

In 2024 and ‘25, Giménez matched the latter profile. However, in the two seasons prior, he was actually slightly better against left-handers. On the one hand, it would be great if Giménez could hold his own against lefty pitchers. On the other hand, I wouldn't be mad to see Ernie Clement slide over to shortstop against southpaw starters if it meant Giménez was a genuinely productive bat against righties.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It almost seems silly to include Guerrero in this piece when both projection systems think he’ll be one of the best hitters in baseball. However, his Steamer wRC+ (153) is eight points higher than his ZiPS wRC+ (145). That difference is enough to make him one of Steamer’s top five projected hitters, trailing only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, and Shohei Ohtani.

Once again, it comes back to platoon splits. Steamer projects Guerrero's OPS against righties to be 14 points higher than ZiPS. That’s not a huge difference. However, Steamer projects his OPS against lefties to be 82 points higher than ZiPS. Only one hitter, Judge, has better Steamer projections against southpaws. 

Guerrero doesn’t have wide platoon splits in his career. He’s actually been slightly better against right-handed pitchers. With that said, he absolutely destroyed lefties in 2025, and Steamer seems to think that trend will continue. 

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