Will Any Blue Jays Join the Hall of Fame Ballot for 2027?

[Leo Morgenstern]

Tomorrow, the results of the BBWAA Hall of Fame election will be announced on MLB Network. Carlos Beltrán will be a Hall of Famer. Andruw Jones is likely to join him. Meanwhile, most of this year’s newcomers to the process will officially fall off the ballot and out of consideration. That includes former Blue Jays All-Star Edwin Encarnación.

Of course, next year will bring a whole new crop of first-timers to the ballot. So, I set out to find which of them, if any, suited up for our Toronto Blue Jays. Limiting my search to those who actually played an MLB game for the Blue Jays, I found three names that could appear on the next BBWAA ballot. If all three of them make the ballot, they’ll join Mark Buehrle and Omar Vizquel as the former Jays under consideration for the Hall of Fame class of 2027. 

Before I tell you who they are, I’ll make things clear: None of them is going to be inducted into the Hall. I doubt any of them will stick on the ballot for more than one year. Yet, as I laid out in a piece about Buehrle last week, just appearing on the ballot is an honour.

Without further ado, those three players are Joakim Soria, J.A. Happ, and John Axford – listed in order of likelihood to appear on the ballot, at least in my opinion. If I were ranking in terms of their impact on the Blue Jays, there’s no doubt Happ would be first. I couldn’t blame you if you forgot Soria and Axford played for the Jays at all.

Soria, one of the greatest Rule 5 draft success stories, played for nine teams over 14 MLB seasons and recorded saves for seven of them. His 229 career saves put him in the top 50 all-time (44th), while his 20.82 Win Probability Added (per FanGraphs) places him among the top 20 relief pitchers dating back to 1974. His 15.4 fWAR and 18.6 bWAR both rank 10th among 21st century relievers. His time with the Jays was brief and forgettable; Toronto acquired him at the trade deadline in 2021, and he pitched to a 7.88 ERA in 10 appearances down the stretch. He announced his retirement after the season.

Happ finished as the runner-up for the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009, earned a handful of down-ballot votes for the AL Cy Young in 2016, and finally made his first All-Star team in 2018. From his first full season until his last in 2021, he ranked eighth in the majors in starts and 10th in wins. All told, the lefty pitched in 354 games (328 starts) for eight different teams, but he spent far longer in Toronto than anywhere else. 

First acquired in a mid-season 10-player trade with the Astros in 2012, Happ pitched for the Blue Jays through the 2014 season. They traded him to the Mariners for Michael Saunders the following offseason but re-signed him a year later. He then suited up for Toronto until the deadline in 2018, when the Jays sent him to the Yankees. In 135 total games with the Blue Jays, Happ collected 59 wins and 691 strikeouts, pitching to a 3.88 ERA.

Last is Axford. The Brewers saw something in the Ontario native that no one else did. They signed him off the trash heap in 2008, and two years later, he was a star closer. In 2010, Axford succeeded the great Trevor Hoffman as Milwaukee’s ninth-inning arm, and in 2011, he led the Senior Circuit with 46 saves. He was named the NL’s Rolaids Relief Man and also earned down-ballot Cy Young and MVP votes.

Axford finished his career with an ERA under 4.00 and 144 saves in 544 appearances. Yet, he really only had those two great seasons. He recorded almost half his career saves from 2010-11; over the next eight years, he pitched to a 4.50 ERA with a neutral WAR and a negative WPA. His time with the Blue Jays was almost as brief as Soria’s. He gave the club 45 outings with a 4.41 ERA in 2018, collecting four wins and six holds before he was traded to the Dodgers at the deadline.

In the table below, I’ve listed each of Soria, Happ, and Axford's career Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball Reference) as well as their scores in three Hall of Fame metrics: JAWS, Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFm), and Hall of Fame Standards (HOFs). Then, for comparison, I’ve listed the lowest score in each of those metrics by a player to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in each of the last 10 years. 

For instance, Rick Porcello has the lowest bWAR (18.8) and JAWS (18.6) on this year’s ballot, while Howie Kendrick has the lowest HOFm (12) and Alex Gordon has the lowest HOFs (14). You’ll see each of those numbers listed in the “2026” row.

The final row lists the average of the lowest bWAR, JAWS, HOFm, and HOFs scores on the ballot for the last decade. 

Player	bWAR	JAWS	HOFm	HOFs
Joakim Soria	18.6	17.4	47	16
J.A. Happ	21.1	20.8	23	18
John Axford	4.0	4.9	17	7
Year	bWAR	JAWS	HOFm	HOFs
2026	18.8	18.6	12	14
2025	7.5	7.9	22	7
2024	24.2	20.9	28	16
2023	14.5	13.3	15	11
2022	14.5	16.9	52	17
2021	17.8	16.6	14	4
2020	7.1	8.0	18	11
2019	5.5	6.0	0	5
2018	7.9	10.0	21	7
2017	14.1	13.5	6	11
Average	13.2	13.2	18.8	10.3

From these numbers, Soria and Happ both look like realistic contenders to make the ballot, while Axford is more of a long shot. 

That said, it’s not always easy to predict the Hall of Fame ballot.

The number of players on the ballot changes every year, but for what it’s worth, 14 players are likely to exit after this year: Beltrán and Jones are on track for induction, Manny Ramirez will fall off after his 10th year of consideration, and 11 of the 12 newcomers (all except Cole Hamels) are unlikely to receive enough support to earn another year in the conversation. 

So again, that’s 14 spots opening up. Baseball Reference lists 31 contenders for a slot on the potential ballot for 2027. The BBWAA could choose more than 14 of them, but they certainly aren’t picking all 31. 

Only one of next year’s newbies has a legitimate Hall of Fame case, Buster Posey, though several more are locks for a spot on the ballot, including Jon Lester, Ryan Zimmerman, and Brett Gardner. I think Kyle Seager, Ervin Santana, Jake Arrieta, Jay Bruce, Asdrúbal Cabrera, and Pablo Sandoval are safe bets too. After those 10, I’d say Soria and Happ have as good a case as anyone. Here’s where all three former Jays rank among newcomer candidates in the stats I listed above:

Player	bWAR	JAWS	HOFm	HOFs
Joakim Soria	18th	19th	3rd	14th
J.A. Happ	13th	13th	11th	11th
John Axford	31st	31st	16th	26th

Once more, Soria and Happ strike me as likely ballot candidates but not locks. Then again, I might be too low on Soria, considering he was a closer. If guys like Fernando Rodney, Huston Street, Heath Bell, and former Blue Jay LaTroy Hawkins appeared on the ballot in recent years, Soria should have a spot. And if Axford even has a case, maybe Soria is a lock after all.

Two years from now, we’ll see David Price on the ballot. In three years, Josh Donaldson will have his turn. But before then, it could be Soria, Happ, and possibly Axford representing the Blue Jays on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. While they won't ever be Hall of Famers, it will be nice to remember and celebrate their MLB careers.

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