Toronto's In-House Options for the Back of the Starting Rotation

[Bryan Jaeger]

Shane Bieber's decision to opt in for the 2026 season with the Toronto Blue Jays strengthens the starting rotation. He'll rejoin Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos, although Berríos's 2026 status remains uncertain. The righty missed the postseason after being shut down in September due to an elbow issue, leaving his availability for next year's Opening Day in question. If Berríos will be sidelined at the start, the Blue Jays absolutely need to find a free agent arm. But if he's healthy, could Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, or Easton Lucas fit as the fifth starter?

Lauer spent 2024 in the Korea Baseball Organization but returned to MLB this past season. The Blue Jays relied on him heavily, especially after Francis struggled and sustained a shoulder injury. Lauer pitched in 28 games (15 starts), with a 9-2 record, a 3.18 ERA, and a 102:26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The lefty began the season as a long reliever before moving into the starting rotation to fill the gap left by Francis.

This move placed a heavier burden on Brendon Little, who saw his workload jump to a career-high 79 games as the bullpen's sole reliable left-hander. Mason Fluharty and Justin Bruihl stepped in as extra left-handed bullpen arms during the regular season, but struggled. Fluharty had a 4.44 ERA in 52 2/3 innings, though he rebounded with 5 1/3 scoreless September innings before struggling again in October. Bruihl posted a 5.27 ERA in 13 2/3 regular season innings and gave up another two runs in one outing in the playoffs. Currently, FanGraphs has Lauer as the fifth starter. If Fluharty continues to struggle, will the Blue Jays risk another career-high workload for Little, or return Lauer to the bullpen and hope for a bounce-back from Francis or Lucas?

Francis excelled in his 2023 debut (excluding his 2/3 innings in 2022). He pitched 36 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, posted a 1.73 ERA, and tallied a 35:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 2024, he added another impressive campaign, posting a 3.30 ERA over 103 2/3 innings and recording a 92:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He started his last 10 appearances of the season, producing a 2.92 ERA in 77 innings and holding opponents to a .166 average as a starter.

The Blue Jays rode this success into 2025, but Francis struggled. He posted a 6.05 ERA over 64 innings. Control caused significant issues for the 29-year-old, who produced a 54:27 strikeout-to-walk ratio and surrendered 19 home runs. Opponents hit .283 off him. The team placed Francis on the injured list on June 17 with a right shoulder impingement, causing him to miss the rest of the season.

Lucas, with only 42 2/3 MLB innings and an 8.02 ERA over three years, must impress in spring training to make the 26-man roster. So, the Blue Jays' best option could be to test Francis in spring training, evaluating the impact of his past shoulder injury. If Francis rebounds, Lauer can remain in the bullpen, where he posted a 1.76 ERA over 30 2/3 innings in 2025. This roster alignment would support both rotation stability and bullpen depth.

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[harvey16]

With the amount of depth we have within our organization, I don't think a top end Starter is necessarily a priority. If we can bring in a guy like Gallen or even Cease that would be great, but we don't need to break the bank to trade for Skubal.

[Joltin Joe]

Berrios and Lauer battle it out in spring training for 5/6th starter.