Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series Game Seven: Everything on the Line, All Hands on Deck

[Mike LeSage]

Pre-game - Win Probability: 50%
Max Scherzer gets the ball in what is likely the final start of his career. Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho swap places in the batting order, but otherwise it’s the same lineup as Game 6. The Dodgers' lineup is unchanged. Shohei Ohtani gets the start for the Dodgers, going on three days' rest. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. arrived wearing a Marie-Philip Poulin Team Canada jersey, and if he can channel half of the power of Captain Clutch, we’re in for a good night. All the cliches are in effect, every player is available - to pitch, to bat, to run - whatever is asked of them. The first time the MLB season has started and ended outside of the United States of America. Let’s keep the trophy up here!

First inning - Win Probability: 50%
Ohtani leads things off with a single and makes it as far as third. Guerrero makes a diving stop on a Will Smith grounder and flips it to Scherzer for the first out. Freddie Freeman flies out, and Mookie Betts grounds out to leave the top half scoreless.
George Springer gets things started for the home side with a single. Nathan Lukes strikes out, and then Guerrero strikes out (looking) on a full count and with Springer running. Springer held up on his run (thinking it was a walk? Forgetting where he was?) and was thrown out in the weakest strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play I’ve seen since little league.

Second inning - Win Probability: 50%
Scherzer has an efficient inning, striking out Max Muncy and getting fly outs from Teoscar Hernández and (a deep one from) Tommy Edman. Mad Max is through two innings with 20 pitches.
Bo Bichette walks to start the inning, and Barger singles behind him. Two on, none out. Alejandro Kirk pops out, and Daulton Varsho flies out to Teoscar. Ernie Clement hits a single to right field that might have scored anyone else in the lineup, but the hobbled Bichette is (correctly) held at third. Bases loaded. Andrés Giménez goes down on strikes to leave the bases full. Ohtani is up to 43 pitches, so that’s something at least.

Third inning - Win Probability: 82.1%
Scherzer gets the Dodgers to go three up, three down again with Kiké Hernández flying out, a Miguel Rojas strikeout, and Ohtani with a lineout that Nathan Lukes made a terrific catch on.

Springer leads off with a single, and Luke's sacrifice bunt moves him up to second for Guerrero. The Dodgers elect to pitch to Vladdy, but after Ohtani's wild pitch allows Springer to take third, they decide to walk Guerrero and take their chances with Bichette. Bo responded by hitting his first career postseason home run (+20.5% WPA)! 3-0 Jays! That would be Ohtani’s last pitch of the game as the Dodgers turn to Justin Wrobleski to keep the game in reach. Barger would get a single, but outs by Kirk and Varsho end the inning.

Fourth inning - Win Probability: 75.8%
The Dodgers would load the bases, but get only one back in the fourth. Varsho would make an incredible diving catch on a ball hit by Teoscar, and Guerrero made a diving catch of his own into foul territory to retire Edman and limit the damage to one run. 3-1 Jays.

Clement grounds out to the inning, and Giménez, after three pitches up and in, takes one off the hands for an HBP. Giménez used some choice words to question Wrobleski’s ability to throw strikes. Wrobleski, in turn, used some choice words of his own to let Giménez know that he was interested in escalating the matter. Tensions might already have been elevated around the diamond, but this was enough to empty the benches. *Everybody* came running. The bullpens emptied. It was a brief interlude of chaos in the midst of an already historic game. Springer would single, and Lukes would strike out. That brought Guerrero to the plate and Tyler Glasnow into the game to pitch to him. Guerrero would line out to end the inning.

Fifth inning - Win Probability: 78.6%
Scherzer would start the fifth and get a strikeout of Kiké Hernández. A single to the #9 hitter (Rojas) would bring Louis Varland out of the ‘pen to face Ohtani. Pre-game, I mused about how Mad Max would pitch in his potential final career start. After watching him through four and a third tonight, I think he might pitch in 2026. Shohei would be single, but Varland induced flyouts from Smith and Freeman to end the frame.

Glasnow gave up a single to Kirk, but otherwise worked an efficient inning. Glasnow, at one time slated to be the starter in this game, is looking like he might go a few innings.

Sixth inning - Win Probability: 82.2%
Chris Bassitt came in for the sixth and issued a walk to Betts to open the frame. Betts would come around to score on an Edman sac fly, but again, the damage was limited to one run. 3-2 Jays.

Bottom half, and Ernie Clement leads off with a single, tying the major league record for hits in a postseason at 29. Giménez would hit a double into the right-centre gap for a double. Clement would ditch his helmet and perform one of the most beautiful and unnecessary slides into home I’ve ever seen. The Jays had their two-run cushion back. 4-2 Jays.

Seventh inning - Win Probability: 86.9%
Another record holder, Trey Yesavage, would enter the game to face the top of the Dodgers' order. A walk to Ohtani and a fly out by Smith brought Freeman to the plate. He would hit a ball up the first baseline that Guerrero fielded cleanly and executed a textbook 3-6-3 GIDP. Vladdy’s second great defensive play of the game.

Emmet Sheehan would be next out of the ‘pen for LA, and he worked a quick bottom of the inning. Kirk got a single, but the others around him retired.

Eighth inning - Win Probability: 84%
Yesavage would stay in for the eighth and got groundouts of Betts and Teoscar, but between them, Max Muncy would homer (-9.9% WPA) to bring the Dodgers back within one. Jeff Hoffman entered the game to get the last out of the inning - a groundout by Edman.

Ernie Clement led off the inning with a double, putting him at second base and giving him sole possession of the record for hits in a postseason with 30. That would bring Blake Snell out of the Dodgers' bullpen. Giménez hit a ball hard at the third baseman, Muncy, who was playing in to protect against the bunt. The ball had an xBA of .590, but Muncy got his glove up and made the catch. Snell then struck out Springer and pinch-hitting Davis Schneider to end the inning and leave Clement stranded at second.

Ninth inning - Win Probability: 50%
Hoffman stays in, and the Jays are three outs away from becoming champions. He gets Kiké Hernández to strike out. He gets the #9 hitter, Rojas, to a full count and on the seventh pitch of the at-bat, hangs a slider that ends up 387 feet away for a home run (-35.4% WPA). Tie game. 4-4. An Ohtani flyout and a Smith strikeout keep the game tied and send the Jays to the bottom of the ninth with a chance to walk it off.

Guerrero hit a ball deep, but Edman was there to make the play. Bichette would single, Barger would walk, and then Yoshinobu Yamamoto came into the game, and Kirk would be hit by a pitch. Bases loaded, one out, tie game. Daulton Varsho hit a ball to Rojas at second. The throw came home, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who was in as a pinch runner for Bichette) was called out. The Jays challenged the call—it was certainly close, and it appeared that LA catcher Smith may have lifted his foot as the throw came in, breaking the connection with the plate. The call was upheld, the runner out. Bases were still loaded, but now two out, and the hit machine, Clement, was at the plate. The ErnDog put a charge into the ball, but Andy Pages, who was in the game as a defensive substitution, literally ran over left fielder Kiké Hernández to make the catch on the warning track, end the inning, and send game 7 to extra innings.

Tenth inning - Win Probability: 50%
Seranthony Domínguez came in for the first of the extra frames and started with a deep flyout from Freeman. He would then load the bases with a Muncy single (-8% WPA) sandwiched between walks for Betts (-5.9% WPA) and Teoscar (-13.5% WPA). Pages, who had only just come into the game, hit a grounder to Giménez, who came home with the throw for the force out and kept the score tied (+18.1% WPA). Then an incredibly tight play at first ended the inning (+17% WPA). The game was still tied.
Yamamoto stayed in the game and retired Giménez, Springer, and Myles Straw in order. 

Eleventh inning - Win Probability: 0%
Shane Bieber got the call for the eleventh and quickly got two weak groundouts to retire Rojas and Ohtani. Then Will Smith came to the plate. After two balls well out of the zone, Bieber put a slider right in the middle and Smith hit it out (-41.5% WPA) to give the Dodgers the lead with their third homer of the game. 

The Jays' bats would come up needing one to tie and two to win. Yamamoto stayed in to face them. Guerrero doubled to left field (+24.4% WPA) with his 29th hit of the postseason, moving him into a tie for the second most all-time. IKF executed a perfect sacrifice bunt to move Vladdy to third and bring Barger to the plate. He would draw a walk and put the winning run on first base. Alejandro Kirk then came to the plate. He would then become the final batter of the season, hitting a ground ball to Betts at short, who turned two and ended the game.

This was a magical season. The Jays had chances in both Games 6 and 7 to have it end differently—just one more hit with runners in scoring position would've done it. We will celebrate this team and analyze these series, but for now, it just hurts. The appreciation will come, but until then, we just sit in the pain of the loss. Pitchers and catchers report in just over 100 days - there’s always next season.

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