Article: Is Daulton Varsho’s Power Surge Sustainable?

[Bryan Jaeger]

During the first half of this season, Daulton Varsho played in only 24 games due to a hamstring injury, missing most of April and all of June and July. In 100 plate appearances, he scored 14 runs, hit eight home runs, and drove in 20, but struggled to get on base, posting a .207/.240/.543 slash line and a 102 wRC+. However, since returning from his second IL stint of the year, Varsho's performance has changed dramatically — he's reaching base more often and hitting for even more power than before.

Since returning on August 1, Varsho has taken 107 trips to the plate and has scored 18 times, hit 10 home runs, and knocked in 18. He's been a reliable on-base guy in the lineup too, slashing .269/.346/.645, and has increased his wRC+ to 165. His full-season 135 wRC+ would easily be a career best if the season ended today. The continued power has been a massive part of his game in the second half. The center fielder is nine home runs shy of his career high (27 in 2022), but is also 385 plate appearances short of his 2022 total (592).

The Toronto Blue Jays are reaping the rewards of Varsho's recent uptick in power production, and there are reasons to believe the increase isn't a fluke. According to Baseball Savant, Varsho has set career highs in several key metrics this season, including hard-hit percentage (42.0%), average exit velocity (90.1 mph), launch angle sweet spot percentage (35.9%), and barrel percentage (17.6%). Excelling in each of these areas helps batters hit the ball over the fence. The increase in barrel percentage is a significant contributor to Varsho's improved on-base and power performance. His current barrel percentage is 11.4 percentage points higher than last season. This is the first time in his career that he's improved in this statistic by more than 2.9 percentage points from one season to the next.

Another significant improvement Varsho has made has been hitting offspeed pitches more successfully. The outfielder's batting average has increased to .343 against these pitches, which is higher than his previous career high from 2022 (.260). His .316 expected batting average against offspeed stuff is also a career high. In particular, the 29-year-old's slugging percentage (1.086) and expected slugging percentage (.885) off offspeed pitches have drastically improved this season. Previously, Varsho had never slugged higher than .456 against offspeed pitches. The sample is small, but the results are impossible to ignore.

To that point, offspeed pitches have accounted for only 13.8% of pitches he has seen, likely because he's been so effective against them. For context, his 1.086 slugging on offspeed pitches exceeds his slugging on fastballs (.505) and breaking balls (.422) by a wide margin. Being able to eliminate a pitch type can assist a hitter in ending at-bats successfully. 

Varsho, in the second half, has only been swinging even harder and making better swing decisions. His average bat speed is higher than it was in 2023 and '24, and his fast swing rate (the percentage of his swings about 75 mph) has significantly increased since he returned from his second IL stint. What's more, he is striking out just 26.2% of the time, compared to his 31.0% strikeout rate earlier in the season. That's still higher than his career average, but an increased strikeout rate is a common occurrence for a hitter tapping into more power. Blue Jays fans can rest easy knowing his current power surge should be largely sustainable.

Varsho's impressive production in just 54 games raises what-ifs about his missed time, but that time off also may have allowed him to refine his approach. Most importantly, if he continues these trends, he will remain a major contributor to the lineup for the rest of the season.  

Stats updated prior to games on September 9.

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