Brewers (Priester) vs Blue Jays (Gausman): 8/30/25, 3:07pm

[max silver]

52 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

We had the 10th and 11th highest payroll in 2015 and 2016, and we have the 5th highest payroll now, and need to spend like this to be competitive. They have received more help from ownership than any front office in my memory. 

I also don't see how this is THAT much better outlook wise going forward than the 2015 team. Vlad and Kirk are the only two in their prime pieces locked down long term that anyone would really strongly believe in. We will need to add free agent pitching and again hope for excellent injury luck to be good.

We MIGHT have good pitching coming. But anyone who looks at the last ten years and doesn't want to wait and see on that.. and even then i'd rather have more competent people further develop that.  

You seemed to have either missed or ignored the existence of all of Barger, Gimenez and Santander in your long term Blue Jays prognosis as they are all long term assets. Both of Santander and Gimenez had rough first seasons as Blue Jays but I believe each of them were adversely affected by injuries to a large degree and with better health I expect each of them to perform better in future seasons. I'd like to believe that a Varsho extension could be a possibility but as a Boras client that is likely a tough hill to climb.

I think that aside from the wayward 2024 season that regular season performances have largely been in line with payroll allowances, with the lack of post season success being the major failure of this group. I can agree that pitching development has been the major deficiency that's led to a very expensive pitching staff, and with all of Bieber, Bassitt and Scherzer scheduled to depart in free agency it will continue to be a necessity for a large chunk of payroll to go towards the rotation. 

The Blue Jays actually featured MLB's highest payrolls in their world series years so this years team isn't the best supported team in the club's history. The team did recently fire the minor league pitching coordinator and head of scouting, and the large number of pitching breakouts this season has me hopeful that the team is finally cracking the pitching code. 

[jmomcc]

41 minutes ago, max silver said:

You seemed to have either missed or ignored the existence of all of Barger, Gimenez and Santander in your long term Blue Jays prognosis as they are all long term assets. Both of Santander and Gimenez had rough first seasons as Blue Jays but I believe each of them were adversely affected by injuries to a large degree and with better health I expect each of them to perform better in future seasons. I'd like to believe that a Varsho extension could be a possibility but as a Boras client that is likely a tough hill to climb.

I think that aside from the wayward 2024 season that regular season performances have largely been in line with payroll allowances, with the lack of post season success being the major failure of this group. I can agree that pitching development has been the major deficiency that's led to a very expensive pitching staff, and with all of Bieber, Bassitt and Scherzer scheduled to depart in free agency it will continue to be a necessity for a large chunk of payroll to go towards the rotation. 

The Blue Jays actually featured MLB's highest payrolls in their world series years so this years team isn't the best supported team in the club's history. The team did recently fire the minor league pitching coordinator and head of scouting, and the large number of pitching breakouts this season has me hopeful that the team is finally cracking the pitching code. 

Barger has been good for a short enough amount of time that its unclear if he is a long term piece. He might be a strong side platoon guy. Its too early to tell. Gimenez needs to hit. No one actually values defensive WAR that much if he is an 80 wrc+ player. I hated the santander signing and still do. Seemed like desperation more than anything. 

If we were in a different division slightly to moderately underperforming payroll will work. We are in a division with two teams who have regularly run higher payroll than us (and the yankees at least have a top tier front office) and two other teams where one obviously has a much better front office than us, and the other has an excellent core of young hitters. 

We need to outperform payroll. We need to develop pitching. And ten years is a reasonable amount of time to expect that to happen. And it hasn't happened. So, if they don't win the division... fire them. This is more than enough time for results to matter. 

AA got essentially no grace compared to these guys. He just seemed not as good at asking for more money. That's about it. 
 

edit: to me the goal of ownership seems to be wild cards or at least good enough to fill the stadium and get tv ratings into august/september. What i would say to that, is you could get a better front office and do that for 190m instead.

[max silver]

32 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Barger has been good for a short enough amount of time that its unclear if he is a long term piece. He might be a strong side platoon guy. Its too early to tell. Gimenez needs to hit. No one actually values defensive WAR that much if he is an 80 wrc+ player. I hated the santander signing and still do. Seemed like desperation more than anything. 

If we were in a different division slightly to moderately underperforming payroll will work. We are in a division with two teams who have regularly run higher payroll than us (and the yankees at least have a top tier front office) and two other teams where one obviously has a much better front office than us, and the other has an excellent core of young hitters. 

We need to outperform payroll. We need to develop pitching. And ten years is a reasonable amount of time to expect that to happen. And it hasn't happened. So, if they don't win the division... fire them. This is more than enough time for results to matter. 

AA got essentially no grace compared to these guys. He just seemed not as good at asking for more money. That's about it. 
 

edit: to me the goal of ownership seems to be wild cards or at least good enough to fill the stadium and get tv ratings into october. What i would say to that, is you could get a better front office and do that for 190m instead.

I think the Barger breakout is completely for real. Even if he's a strong side platoon player in the end that's still a really valuable piece as he'll received 500+ PA per season. Gimenez has been really unlucky with the bat this season. He's matched his best ever .326 xwOBA up to this point of the season, and it appears as though the primary reason he's underwater in terms of expected performance is due to stellar defense on his batted balls in play. Gimenez is tied for the major league lead with 9 fielding runs saved on his batted balls despite receiving 150+ PA less than the other guys he's tied with. I don't think the Santander signing was desperate in the slightest. The team waited him out for a large portion of the offseason and once you factor in the deferrals he's essentially being paid as a 2 win DH.

It seems silly to me to fire an entire front office for not winning a division title regardless of what happens in the playoffs. Let's say in a perfect world that the team makes the world series this season, but as a "reward" you would fire the lot of them? That's just illogical in nature. I think it's high time for Atkins to show that he can get his team over the playoff hump and failing this he should fully be on the hot seat, but at the same time I think Shapiro has accomplished more than enough to justify a contract extension.

I don't see how AA is relevant to this discussion. His primary failing in my view was that he never properly built the bones of the team from the ground up as he largely built his team by acquiring veteran players and was downright terrible at developing his own core from within. Literally the only home grown position player of any note was Kevin Pillar. He had a touch of success on the pitching side, but once MLB closed the draft pick loopholes for qualified free agents he had no success in the draft and that led to a sadsack farm system when he decided to depart the organization. 

[jmomcc]

16 minutes ago, max silver said:

I think the Barger breakout is completely for real. Even if he's a strong side platoon player in the end that's still a really valuable piece as he'll received 500+ PA per season. Gimenez has been really unlucky with the bat this season. He's matched his best ever .326 xwOBA up to this point of the season, and it appears as though the primary reason he's underwater in terms of expected performance is due to stellar defense on his batted balls in play. Gimenez is tied for the major league lead with 9 fielding runs saved on his batted balls despite receiving 150+ PA less than the other guys he's tied with. I don't think the Santander signing was desperate in the slightest. The team waited him out for a large portion of the offseason and once you factor in the deferrals he's essentially being paid as a 2 win DH.

It seems silly to me to fire an entire front office for not winning a division title regardless of what happens in the playoffs. Let's say in a perfect world that the team makes the world series this season, but as a "reward" you would fire the lot of them? That's just illogical in nature. I think it's high time for Atkins to show that he can get his team over the playoff hump and failing this he should fully be on the hot seat, but at the same time I think Shapiro has accomplished more than enough to justify a contract extension.

I don't see how AA is relevant to this discussion. His primary failing in my view was that he never properly built the bones of the team from the ground up as he largely built his team by acquiring veteran players and was downright terrible at developing his own core from within. Literally the only home grown position player of any note was Kevin Pillar. He had a touch of success on the pitching side, but once MLB closed the draft pick loopholes for qualified free agents he had no success in the draft and that led to a sadsack farm system when he decided to depart the organization. 

I wouldn't fire them because they lost the division. I'd fire them because I believe that you can't be consistently good without cost controlled pitching and they haven't developed almost any for ten years. I'd let him keep his job for one more year if they win the division. And then i'd fire him next year if there is still no cost controlled pitching and we don't win the division. 

Its a god damm excellent reason on its own to fire him. I also have no idea why i'm supposed to be so impressed by their drafting. Bichette has been their best pick in ten years and word at the time was they left largely the team that scouted the draft for AA in place for that draft. Even the guy who originally found kirk was a holdover who went on to work for atlanta. 

I think you are being a bit much talking about good defensive infielders and possible platoon players as the 'bones' of a team. Look at boston or baltimore if you want to see what the bones of a team looks like. 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, jmomcc said:

I wouldn't fire them because they lost the division. I'd fire them because I believe that you can't be consistently good without cost controlled pitching and they haven't developed almost any for ten years. I'd let him keep his job for one more year if they win the division. And then i'd fire him next year if there is still no cost controlled pitching and we don't win the division. 

Its a god damm excellent reason on its own to fire him. I also have no idea why i'm supposed to be so impressed by their drafting. Bichette has been their best pick in ten years and word at the time was they left largely the team that scouted the draft for AA in place for that draft. Even the guy who originally found kirk was a holdover who went on to work for atlanta. 

I think you are being a bit much talking about good defensive infielders and possible platoon players as the 'bones' of a team. Look at boston or baltimore if you want to see what the bones of a team looks like. 

I don't recall anyone saying the drafting has been exemplary so there's no reason to go there. The current front office group built a solid core largely on their own so they can receive credit for that. You are jumping between him and them in your discussion of firing people, so I don't really know if you are referring to completely cleaning house, or replacing only Atkins etc. Once again I don't see why the deciding factor between keeping jobs or not is winning the division regardless of post season results unless you are the type who gets sentimental about division title banners hanging in the stadium.

It's a pretty weaksauce critique to not give full credit to the current front office pick for the Bichette pick simply because there wasn't 100% consensus in the draft room. This wasn't a J.P. Ricciardi situation where he overruled the scouting staff and drafted Ricky Romero instead of Tulo so it's pretty dumb to send out criticism towards anyone in this situation. Literally the only thing that matters was that Bichette was picked, everything else is essentially meaningless. If you examine the Blue Jays draft picks in AA's last few seasons with the club they are legitimately awful so let's not pretend like the team had a top notch scouting department and draft process at that point. With regards to the guy who signed Kirk I don't see why we should care if the person that banged the drum for this has since moved on. There is a lot of movement in baseball circles over time so I don't see how this is relevant to any kind of meaningful discussion. 

Both of Boston and Baltimore are on different portions of their respective win curves so comparing their current cores in terms of long term value is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. The Blue Jays were largely in a similar position in 2021 or so if we are to compare front office quality in terms of long term core potential. 

[jmomcc]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I don't recall anyone saying the drafting has been exemplary so there's no reason to go there. The current front office group built a solid core largely on their own so they can receive credit for that. You are jumping between him and them in your discussion of firing people, so I don't really know if you are referring to completely cleaning house, or replacing only Atkins etc. Once again I don't see why the deciding factor between keeping jobs or not is winning the division regardless of post season results unless you are the type who gets sentimental about division title banners hanging in the stadium.

It's a pretty weaksauce critique to not give full credit to the current front office pick for the Bichette pick simply because there wasn't 100% consensus in the draft room. This wasn't a J.P. Ricciardi situation where he overruled the scouting staff and drafted Ricky Romero instead of Tulo so it's pretty dumb to send out criticism towards anyone in this situation. Literally the only thing that matters was that Bichette was picked, everything else is essentially meaningless. If you examine the Blue Jays draft picks in AA's last few seasons with the club they are legitimately awful so let's not pretend like the team had a top notch scouting department and draft process at that point. With regards to the guy who signed Kirk I don't see why we should care if the person that banged the drum for this has since moved on. There is a lot of movement in baseball circles over time so I don't see how this is relevant to any kind of meaningful discussion. 

Both of Boston and Baltimore are on different portions of their respective win curves so comparing their current cores in terms of long term value is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. The Blue Jays were largely in a similar position in 2021 or so if we are to compare front office quality in terms of long term core potential. 

Boston are already bringing through homegrown pitching and have what looks like a possible superstar on a cheap long term deal. They also already acquired an ace and have tons of good hitting prospects coming, and a reputation as one of the best hitting dev teams. And a lot of room to add salary to their normal standard. That is already way ahead of us in 2021. 

Baltimore have hitters coming out of their ears. If i was their owner, i'd keep a close eye on their pitching and think about switching it up if guys don't start coming through. 

We had vlad, bo and kirk and essentially never added anything substantial to it. In fact, almost everything we did that was really big was in 2016. Which is what i meant by how close it was to the transition. As soon as they had full control all they can add are complementary pieces on the hitting side. They are good at that. And they are good at signing pitching free agents who stay healthy. That's it. 

In what universe is that enough in the al east? i would be fine keeping shapiro. He seems to only do the business side anyway. I'd fire Atkins no problem. 
 

The fact is if you absolutely suck at pitching, which it is clear we do, you need to be amazing elsewhere. We aren't .

 

[John_Havok]

4 hours ago, jmomcc said:

Boston are already bringing through homegrown pitching and have what looks like a possible superstar on a cheap long term deal. They also already acquired an ace and have tons of good hitting prospects coming, and a reputation as one of the best hitting dev teams. And a lot of room to add salary to their normal standard. That is already way ahead of us in 2021. 

Baltimore have hitters coming out of their ears. If i was their owner, i'd keep a close eye on their pitching and think about switching it up if guys don't start coming through. 

We had vlad, bo and kirk and essentially never added anything substantial to it. In fact, almost everything we did that was really big was in 2016. Which is what i meant by how close it was to the transition. As soon as they had full control all they can add are complementary pieces on the hitting side. They are good at that. And they are good at signing pitching free agents who stay healthy. That's it. 

In what universe is that enough in the al east? i would be fine keeping shapiro. He seems to only do the business side anyway. I'd fire Atkins no problem. 
 

The fact is if you absolutely suck at pitching, which it is clear we do, you need to be amazing elsewhere. We aren't .

 

Springer and Gausman signings weren't substantial additions?

[jmomcc]

7 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Springer and Gausman signings weren't substantial additions?

Any front office with money can and will sign free agents. Boston have a ton of capacity between now and the salaries they ran when they won the division. They will also sign more free agents. 

They never added an important piece to our core outside free agency or trades since 2016. 9 years of no difference makers in the draft or international free agency so far. Maybe Moreno is the only example.  

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, jmomcc said:

Any front office with money can and will sign free agents. Boston have a ton of capacity between now and the salaries they ran when they won the division. They will also sign more free agents. 

They never added an important piece to our core outside free agency or trades since 2016. 9 years of no difference makers in the draft or international free agency so far. Maybe Moreno is the only example.  

Ah okay, just clarifying what you meant then by no major additions, which you meant no internally developed ones.

Manoah was an almost but not quite...

[jmomcc]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

Ah okay, just clarifying what you meant then by no major additions, which you meant no internally developed ones.

Manoah was an almost but not quite...

Yea Manoah did actually produce a good bit of value even if he flamed out a bit. Have to give credit for that. 
 

I actually looked at the 'home produced pitching' and if you count prospects we traded for (but had yet to see the show), i think Biagini or Thornton is the second highest WAR of this regime. 
 

edit; my bad its jordan romano. most of the list is guys drafted before they came (borucki, Romano, mayza) or prospects they traded for early (biagini, thornton).