Article: It’s Nice To Have a Superstar

[Leo Morgenstern]

Editor's Note: I wrote this article before Guerrero exited early on Monday with left hamstring tightness. Let's hope we don't have to find out just how important he is to this team by watching them play without him. 

Old friend Matthew Boyd was brilliant last Thursday afternoon. It’s been a decade since the Blue Jays dealt him to the Tigers in the David Price trade. He’s faced his fair share of ups and downs in that time, but the southpaw has finally blossomed into an ace in his mid-thirties. That was easy to see as he dominated his former team last week at the Rogers Centre.

Boyd faced the minimum through six, with the only hit he allowed – a single to Tyler Heineman – erased on a double play two pitches later. He entered the seventh with a pitch count under 60 and a chance to pick up a much-needed win. The last time the Cubs won one of Boyd’s starts, they were still in first place in the NL Central. They had since fallen 7.5 games back. 

They would drop another half game back of the Brewers that afternoon.

Boyd only slipped up once all game, in the seventh inning. Luckily for the Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was at the plate when he did. No one punishes slip-ups like Vladdy.

Ahead 0-2, Boyd tried to make Guerrero chase a curveball in the dirt. It didn’t work. The Cubs’ ace missed his spot, and the Blue Jays’ three-hole hitter took advantage, crushing the ball to the seats in centre field. Boyd’s 77.2-mph curve was the slowest pitch (by a real pitcher, not a position player) that Guerrero has ever hit more than 400 feet.

There’s no doubt the pitch was a mistake. Boyd admitted as much after the game. At the same time, it's not like it was a jumbo meatball. Right-handed hitters have a .216 wOBA and .052 ISO against curveballs over the lower outside corner of the plate this year. As for Boyd, he’s only given up 11 home runs on his curveball in his career. Before Guerrero’s home run, Boyd had thrown 323 curveballs (between the regular season and the playoffs) without letting one leave the yard. 

So yes, Boyd made a mistake. But it was the kind of mistake he could usually get away with. Not against Vlad.

Guerrero’s home run scored Davis Schneider, who walked two batters earlier, and gave Toronto a 2-1 lead. The Jays would hold on to win the game by the same score. Their offense couldn’t muster much against Boyd and the Cubs, but that day, Guerrero was all they needed.

When no one else could quite get it done, Guerrero stepped up. He's been doing that a lot lately. 

As I watched Guerrero round the bases to collect the home run jacket he’s worn more often than any other Blue Jays hitter, I thought to myself, “Wow, it’s nice to have a superstar.”

Then I thought that would make for a pretty great title for an article. 

It’s not that Guerrero was ever slumping this year, at least not for a prolonged period of time. Yet, since the All-Star break, he’s turned the dial up to 11. The Blue Jays' superstar is reminding us why he deserves that label – and the $500 million mega-deal that came with it.

In 29 games since the break, Guerrero is batting .368/.442/.702 with nine home runs and a 215 wRC+. He’s been the best hitter in baseball outside of Sacramento, and no one, not even the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz or Shea Langeliers, has a higher Win Probability Added (WPA).

Mason Fluharty ranks second on the Blue Jays with a 0.83 WPA in the second half. Davis Schneider is second among position players at 0.61. Guerrero's WPA is 1.91. That's more than half of the entire team's total. 

Similarly, since the All-Star break, Guerrero has produced 17.4 weighted runs above average (wRAA) according to FanGraphs. The rest of Toronto's hitters have a combined 41.7 wRAA. Excluding the Rockies series, however, Guerrero still has a 13.6 wRAA, but the rest of the lineup has combined for just a 15.1 mark. Outside of that series, he's been almost as productive as all the rest of his teammates put together.

The Blue Jays are good. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is really good. 

This team isn't leading the AL East because of any one player alone. George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Bo Bichette have played huge roles this year, as have less expected contributors like Addison Barger, Tyler Heineman, and Ernie Clement. The starting rotation is loaded with proven, reliable arms, while the bullpen has no shortage of stuff or talent. You might not have believed this four months ago, but the Toronto Blue Jays are one of the more complete clubs in the American League. 

Even so, one player on this team stands above the rest. As nice as it is to root for a team of underdogs, comeback kids, and breakout stories, and as nice as it is to root for a team where all the little guys do their part, it's just as nice to have a true superstar to rally around. 

If anyone needed a reminder that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the Blue Jays' very own superstar, he's offering one up on a silver platter right now. And this article is your reminder to enjoy it for as long as it lasts.

Stats updated prior to games on Monday, August 18.

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[mphenhef]

So it's your fault if he is out for an extended period then?