Article: Max Scherzer Is Back in the Blue Jays Rotation

[Leo Morgenstern]

Once, the game's preeminent workhorse, Max Scherzer has developed an injury-prone reputation late in his career. The 40-year-old has spent time on the injured list in each of the past five seasons. He has been hamstrung by shoulder injuries and shouldered by hamstring injuries. Most recently, he has been nursing inflammation in his thumb, an issue that forced him out of his Blue Jays debut after just three innings and has kept him on the IL ever since. Well, until today. Toronto will reinstate the future Hall of Famer from the 60-day IL before tonight's game against the Guardians. Scherzer is finally back with a healthy thumb. (Or is he thumb with a healthy back? No, I had it right the first time.)

I don't need to tell you how dominant Scherzer was at the height of his powers. The man has made eight All-Star teams, won three Cy Young Awards, and pitched a pair of no-hitters. As recently as 2021, he was a serious Cy Young contender. While three separate IL stints limited him to nine starts last year, he was still effective in those outings, pitching to a 3.95 ERA and 3.86 xERA in 43.1 innings. He wasn't striking batters out like he used to (he averaged slightly less than one strikeout per inning), but his 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio was impressive, and his 7.9% barrel rate was his best in five years. He did a particularly excellent job generating swings outside of the strike zone, helping him induce pop-ups and limit hard contact. In short, the Blue Jays had no reason not to think they were getting a capable back-end starter when they signed him to a one-year, $15.5 million deal over the offseason – presuming he could stay on the field.

Of course, he wasn't able to contribute much over the first three months of the season. Indeed, as Jays Centre's Jesse Burrill pointed out earlier today, this team hasn't gotten what it was hoping for from any of its big offseason additions, namely Scherzer, Anthony Santander, Andrés Giménez, and Jeff Hoffman. But there is still time to turn things around. 

The Blue Jays have not had a proper five-man rotation since Scherzer hit the IL. In addition to Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Bowden Francis, eight pitchers have started a game for Toronto. First it was Scherzer. Then it was Easton Lucas, who looked like he might just be the answer after his first two scoreless starts, until he imploded in outings three and four. Since then, the Jays have tried openers and bullpen games. They've tried José Ureña and Spencer Turnbull. One of their depth arms, Eric Lauer, has actually pitched quite well, but just as Lauer started to establish himself as a real option for the rotation, Francis landed on the injured list. So, even if Lauer continues to exceed expectations, the Blue Jays still need Scherzer to stay healthy if they're finally going to have a complete five-man rotation again.

Considering their lack of rotation depth, the Jays will have to be happy with whatever kind of production Scherzer can offer. Still, it's impossible not to dream about him turning back the clock and gifting Toronto a star-caliber performance. In his second and final rehab start last week, he struck out eight of the 17 batters he faced, generating 11 whiffs on 36 swings. Sure, he was facing Triple-A competition, but five of the hitters in the Worcester Red Sox lineup were recent major leaguers: a rehabbing Wilyer Abreu, as well as Nick Sogard, Vaughn Grissom, Trayce Thompson, and Blake Sabol. What's more, Scherzer's average fastball velocity was up to 92.5 mph, compared to 91.9 mph in his lone Blue Jays start in March. He also topped 94 mph four times last week. He wasn't able to hit 94 mph at all in March, and in 2024, he only topped 94 mph 17 times all season. 

In Scherzer's start on March 29, he clearly didn't have his best stuff. He gave up two runs in three innings while striking out only one. However, his control was on point. According to Location+ (defined by FanGraphs as "a count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher’s ability to put pitches in the right place"), Scherzer's first start for the Blue Jays was his best since at least 2020 – that's as far back as the numbers go. PitchingBot Command, a similar metric, grades Scherzer's outing on March 29 as his third-best since 2020, and the only two that have it beat were absolute gems. He might have been throwing heat or missing bats, but he was locating his pitches with remarkable precision. 

Take those numbers with an ocean's worth of salt. A single 45-pitch start is a tiny sample. Having said that, if Scherzer can combine that elite command with the slightly better stuff he showed in his last rehab game, perhaps he can be more than just a back-end starter. I know it's not a likely outcome, but if there's any player who can rediscover greatness in his forties, Scherzer is the one to do it. 

So, I'm preparing to watch his start tonight with a glass-half-full mentality. I'm genuinely hopeful that Scherzer can bring some much-needed stability to the back of Toronto's rotation, and I'm not willing to give up on the possibility that he could be more than a back-end arm. Call me naive, call me a hopeless dreamer, call me anything you want, but it's a lot more fun to be an optimist. We can go back to worrying about Scherzer's health if another issue arises, but until then, I'm going to enjoy watching an all-time great pitcher suit up for the Jays.

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