Article: Where There's a Whiff, There's a Way

[Leo Morgenstern]

You've probably heard that Blue Jays' hitters are the game's best at putting the bat on the ball. (You might have even heard it from me.) Their 17.9% strikeout rate and 21.4% whiff rate are both the lowest in the majors. When the Blue Jays swing, they rarely miss. 

The same can't be said of their opponents, however. Last year, Blue Jays pitchers ranked second-to-last in the majors in whiff rate. Their opponents swung and missed just 23.7% of the time (per Baseball Savant). This year, that rate has climbed up to 26.7%, bringing the Blue Jays from second worst to fourth best. A three-percentage-point increase represents a massive year-to-year improvement in whiff rate. No other team's pitching staff has improved by close to as much:

Team	2024	2025	Increase
Blue Jays	23.7%	26.8%	3.1
Astros	27.4%	29.1%	1.7
Red Sox	23.7%	24.9%	1.2
Yankees	27.0%	28.2%	1.2
Rockies	21.9%	23.0%	1.1
D-backs	24.0%	25.1%	1.1
Giants	25.5%	26.5%	1.0
Guardians	25.5%	26.0%	0.5
Phillies	25.2%	25.6%	0.4

How are the Blue Jays' pitchers earning all these extra whiffs? Their opponents' swing rate has only increased slightly, rising from 47.7% to 48.0%. However, those swings have been more likely to come on pitches outside the strike zone. Toronto's pitchers have induced chases on 29.2% of out-of-zone pitches this year. That's a 1.1-percentage-point increase from last year, which is the largest year-to-year increase of any team. Even better, those chases have resulted in a bounty of whiffs. Blue Jays pitchers have increased their whiff rate on swings outside the zone more than any other team, going from third worst (41.1%) to top 10 (46.4%).

As you might imagine, this has led to much better results for Toronto's pitching staff. Their 24.0% strikeout rate is the fifth-best in the league. So is their 15.9% K-BB%. Last year, they ranked among the bottom third of teams in both metrics.

None of this is to say the Blue Jays have suddenly become a pitching powerhouse. Their arms have a collective 4.11 ERA, slightly worse than league average, and that's in spite of the phenomenal defense they pitch in front of. The root of the problem is what happens when Toronto's opponents manage to put the ball in play. Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a .373 wOBA on balls in play, which puts them among the bottom 10 teams in the league. Their .396 xwOBA on balls in play is even worse, ranking third-worst in baseball and dead last in the American League.

This was an issue last year, too. The Jays ranked 23rd in opponents' wOBA and 27th in opponents' xwOBA on balls in play. Strong defense should help them maintain that gap between their wOBA and xwOBA, but there's only so much defenders can do when the opposing team is crushing the baseball – and often crushing it out of the yard:

Blue Jays Pitchers Are Still Getting Crushed

Home Runs	Barrels	Barrel Rate
97 (T-28th)	180 (29th)	10.4% (30th)

2025 data via FanGraphs, league rank in parentheses

So, if Blue Jays pitchers are going to get killed on contact, the best thing they can do is prevent their opponents from getting the bat on the ball. (Well, really, the best thing they can do is stop giving up so much hard contact, but that's a topic for another day.) That's exactly what they've done.

The Blue Jays' most notable bullpen additions from the offseason, Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, and Nick Sandlin, are all excellent at racking up whiffs. Rookie relievers Braydon Fisher and Mason Fluharty have also done excellent work inducing swing and miss. Best of all, Brendon Little has improved his already-excellent whiff rate to a league-leading (min. 30 IP) 47.5%.

As you might have guessed from the list of players I offered up, Toronto's whiff rate improvement has a lot more to do with the bullpen than the starting rotation. In 2024, Jays relievers and starters had identical 23.7% whiff rates. This year, their starters' whiff rate is almost identical to last year, but their relievers have improved their whiff rate to an incredible 30.7%. Needless to say, that's the biggest year-to-year improvement of any team. The Jays shot up from last place in reliever whiff rate into the top two. 

Yet, to only focus on the relievers wouldn't be fair. Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Bowden Francis have all upped their whiff rates this season, albeit marginally, collectively improving from 22.0% to 24.0%. The reason it seems like the starters' whiff hasn't improved is because of the arms they've lost – namely Yusei Kikuchi and his 28.1% whiff rate with the Jays last year – and the lack of good replacements. The Max Scherzer signing was supposed to help the rotation in the whiffs department; even in his age-39 season, he induced whiffs at an excellent 29.2% rate last year. Unfortunately, the crew of fifth starters that have filled in for Scherzer have combined for a mere 22.8% whiff rate. That low number is undercutting the improvements the rest of the rotation has made. 

Regardless, there is no doubt that the Blue Jays' pitching staff has been better this season, in large part because they're inducing more whiffs. It's still far from a perfect group, but it's a big step up from last year. As long as the whiffs keep coming, this pitching staff can work with a stellar defense and solid lineup to keep the Jays in the postseason race.

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As an addendum, I'll leave you with a compilation I put together of some of the Blue Jays' pitchers' most impressive whiffs this year:

Put that on repeat and inject it into my veins.

Stats and rankings in article updated prior to games on Sunday, June 15.

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