Article: Potential Blue Jays Trade Target: Edward Cabrera

[Jim Scott]

The top three pitchers in the Blue Jays' 2025 rotation have done everything expected of them. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos all have ERAs under 4.00 and are averaging close to six innings per start. But the team has not been as fortunate with their #4 and #5 starters.

Bowden Francis was expected (hoped?) to be a strong #4 in 2025. But he has underperformed, with a 6.12 ERA (5.76 xERA) and a negative WAR. And the Jays' luck with the #5 starter position – where they hoped to have some depth, entering 2025 – has not been much better. Max Scherzer has been hurt, Jake Bloss had UCL surgery on his right (pitching) elbow, Yariel Rodríguez seems better suited to a relief role, and other potential options like Alek Manoah, Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko and Spencer Turnbull all have injury, durability or bullpen questions. This means that acquiring another strong starting pitcher, either at the trade deadline or earlier, could be a Blue Jays priority.

There are several kinds of options available. Some writers have suggested that the Jays try for an expensive rental – someone like Chris Sale of Atlanta. Others have suggested that Toronto trade for an ace who is currently struggling, looking for a rebound – someone like Sandy Alcantara of Miami or Germán Márquez of Colorado. All are valid options and would be worth a phone call if the Jays were looking to upgrade at the very top end. But what if Toronto were looking for something different, like a strong, solid #3-4 starter, someone not too expensive, with multiple years of team control and ideally some upside?

Someone like Edward Cabrera.

Cabrera was signed as a 17-year-old international free agent by the Marlins in 2015. He made his MLB debut in 2021 and made 20 starts for Miami in 2023 and 2024 with an ERA in the mid-4.00s. Cabrera has an unusually strong five-pitch mix. But, surprisingly, his 96-mph four-seam fastball has the lowest rating of the five (see the chart below) with a Stuff+ of 90 in 2024 (89 so far in 2025) and an opponents' batting average of .316 in 2024 (.382 so far in 2025). Yet, from 2023-24, he was using it roughly 30% of the time.

Data from FanGraphs

Starting in 2025, Cabrera has significantly reduced the use of the four-seamer, from 30.12% in 2024 to only 14.64% in 2025. In its place, he has increased usage of his sinker (two-seam fastball) from 8% to 24% and his slider from 10% to 17%. This increased emphasis on his better pitches, along with improvements in command, has increased his overall Stuff+ and Location+, with the result that his Pitching+ is now a very good 106. For comparison, so far in 2025, Gausman has a 108 Pitching+, which is considered excellent (18th among qualified pitchers in MLB). Neither Bassitt nor Berríos has a Pitching+ over 100.

So far in 2025, Cabrera has four pitches with a Stuff+ of 100 or better. That is very rare, and very valuable. Only a handful of players can say the same so far in 2025, and they have names like Skenes, Skubal, and Fried.

So why is Cabrera still flying somewhat under the radar? There are a few reasons. First, his innings. He has never started more than 20 games in a season in his MLB career, and he has never pitched more than 100 MLB innings. So, he may not be seen as having the stamina to perform as a full-time starter at the MLB level. Second, when he has pitched, he has averaged just under five innings per start. This is possibly due to his performance the third time through (“TTT”) the order. The chart below shows his opponents' batting average the first, second and third+ times through the order:

From Brooks Baseball

But this TTT performance might be less of an issue going forward. First, his decreased use of his four-seam fastball makes the jump in batting average for that pitch less problematic – and it is significant that the two-seamer (sinker) with which he has replaced it does not show as significant a TTT jump. Second, most pitchers have some degree of difficulty the third time through, so Cabrera’s TTT decline might not be that unusual.

Third, Cabrera is not an ace. Even with his major step forward in 2025, he still has a 3.99 ERA and a 4.30 xERA. Which would make him a solid #3 starter. So, if the Jays choose to prioritize 2025, a Sale or Alcantara with #1 starter upside might be a more logical priority target. But Cabrera’s ERA was 7.23 in March/April, 2.00 in May and is 2.25 so far in June. The usual small sample size caveat applies, but if the Jays believe that May and June are more epiphany than statistical blip, perhaps Cabrera does have #1 starter upside.

Even if Cabrera’s long-term potential is only as a #3-ish starter, he might still be very attractive. Despite his being 27 years old, he had only 2.147 years of service as of the start of 2025 and is only making $1.95 million. He will be arbitration-eligible again in 2026 and will not be a free agent until after the 2028 season. So while he is arguably not a Sale or even a Márquez-level talent, he would be a cheaper and longer-term solution.

With many teams looking for starting pitching this year, it is difficult to predict what it would cost the Jays to acquire Cabrera. Baseball Trade Values estimates his trade value at $14.4 million. So they estimate that he would be worth a Tiedemann or Josh Kasevich, even up. Or if the Marlins wanted multiple prospects or young MLB-ers (as is probable), something like three of Bloss / Davis Schneider / Landen Maroudis / Leo Jiménez / Khal Stephen / Joey Loperfido could get it done.

The Bottom Line
If the Jays are looking for a solid #4-3 starter with some success in MLB and some real upside, Edward Cabrera should be a very attractive target. But if they are looking to capitalize on the last year of Bassitt, Scherzer, Chad Green and Bo Bichette, they might have their eyes on a more immediate and significant pitching upgrade – one that Cabrera is less likely to provide, at least in 2025.

Stats updated prior to games on June 12. 

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[Brownie19]

Schneider, Jimenez, Loperfido - done deal!