The Contact Hitter Who Discovered His Power Stroke

[Simon Li]

The Jays' 2023 draft class included a pair of high schoolers they selected with two of their first three picks who generated a lot of buzz: current number one prospect Arjun Nimmala and fourth-round pick Landen Maroudis, who was highlighted by many as a breakout candidate the season prior before unfortunately losing the year to Tommy John surgery. Yet, there's a third high school selection from that draft who seems to have fallen under the radar, and it’s a 5-foot-10 second baseman hailing from Victoria, BC. He’s third amongst all qualified hitters in wRC+ in the Florida State League at only 20 years old, which is over a full year younger than league average. 

As relayed by Dunedin broadcaster Eli Fishman on the Around the Nest podcast, Sam Shaw grew up a diehard Blue Jays fan. He would go to Vancouver Canadians games regularly and often spent his summers down in Dunedin watching the Jays at their spring training complex. At one point in time, he ended up getting thrown a ball from former Jays outfielder Jonathan Davis, who’s now one of his coaches.

Ahead of the draft, Shaw had committed to Xavier University, but the Jays convinced their ninth-round selection to sign with an overslot $282,500 signing bonus. He was one of two Canadians drafted by the Jays that year, with Mississauga's Connor O’Halloran being taken in the fifth round.

Shaw started off his career in the Florida Complex League in 2023 and '24, where he showcased strong plate discipline, walking 18.1% of the time and striking out just 10.9% of the time. Scouts liked his strong feel for contact and feel for the barrel. He ran an 87.9% contact rate last season in the FCL and ran very low swinging strike rates despite only hitting .218, mostly due to a lack of power that led to weaker fly balls when he did make contact. Shaw’s bat was notable enough to get him ranked as the 29th-best Jays prospect by Baseball America and the 40th by FanGraphs. One thing that limited his ceiling in their eyes was his lack of power, with FanGraphs giving him a 20/30 game power and a 30/35 raw power grade, and Baseball America saying this:

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“His power is below-average and his best-struck balls come in the form of line drives. Due to his build, he’s unlikely to push below-average power totals.”

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This season, things have changed for Shaw. He spent the offseason putting on weight, and it has resulted in a very different offensive profile. After previously only hitting two homers in his pro career, he’s now more than tripled his homer total, with five on the season, in addition to five doubles and a triple. His ISO is nearly .100 points higher than it was in the FCL last season, against more advanced pitching.

Shaw’s swing has always been tailor-made for line drives, but he’s been hitting them at an absurd rate, with a 29.3% line drive rate, which is the seventh highest in the Florida State League. The more interesting wrinkle to his current approach is his pull rate, as he’s hitting balls to the pull side about half of the time, and 23.4% of his tracked batted balls have been pulled in the air (per Statcast). This helps explain some of the power increase, as his max EV of 106.8 MPH is only average, and his 90th percentile EV of 101.2 mph is only slightly above average. What stands out about Shaw’s profile, though, despite strong but not spectacular power metrics, is a knack for getting barrels, as he’s running one of the highest barrel rates in the league (11.7%). The combination of decent exit velocities, an elite pull rate, and an elite barrel rate has made the smaller second baseman/left fielder into a bigger power threat than one would expect. 

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The ability to barrel the ball is not the only outlier about his game, as he also has strong plate discipline, with an absurd 17.8% walk rate, which is the fourth highest in the FSL. This may come from some passivity in his approach, as he only has a swing rate of 36.5%. As his competition becomes more advanced, Shaw may need to make adjustments to his approach, as more advanced pitchers could take advantage of his passivity as he moves up. His excellent knowledge of the strike zone results in very little chase, and he also has one of the lowest swinging strike rates in the Florida State League at only 6.7%. Shaw’s newfound power stroke may have coincided with a slightly elevated K%, as he is striking out a little more than the average Low-A hitter, and his zone-contact rate is also similarly below average. Still, considering his overall offensive production, it’s a trade-off that seems to be working out for him. 

(Graphic via @TJStats, Stats as of 5/31)

Shaw’s overall defensive value is limited, as he’s only an average fielder at second base, and while he does have experience playing the outfield, most of that time has been spent in left. His speed is considered average to below average, so the main carrying tool will be his bat as he advances through the minors. Shaw’s optimization of launch angles and his ability to pull the ball have transformed him from being a strong contact hitter into a legitimate power threat and, if he continues to progress, will see him launch up prospect rankings. 

Stats updated prior to games on Wednesday, June 4.

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[Spanky__99]

Canadian Fella!