Article: Who Can Be the Blue Jays’ Ace?

[Leo Morgenstern]

When it comes to the Blue Jays’ rotation, most of the talk this season has revolved around the fifth starter (or really, the lack thereof). Fair enough. Max Scherzer lasted just three innings on March 29. He hasn’t pitched since. The Jays have filled the gap with a rotating crew of fungible depth arms. 

However, while Blue Jays starters not named Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, and Bowden Francis have combined for a 6.53 ERA and 7.23 FIP in nine starts (prior to play on Friday), the team has gone 5-4 in those games. Meanwhile, they are 20-20 in games pitched by their top four starters. In other words, the lack of a true fifth starter hasn’t actually hurt the Jays, at least not yet. Perhaps they would have won more than five of those nine games with a more capable starter on the mound, but all things considered, you can’t complain about a .556 winning percentage in games started by your number five(s). 

What’s much more disappointing is that the Blue Jays are only .500 in games started by Gausman, Bassitt, Berríos, and Francis. 

I don’t expect either of these trends to continue. The Blue Jays should be better than they have been in games started by their top four arms. On the flip side, they can’t expect to continue winning so often when they start guys like José Ureña, Eric Lauer, and Easton Lucas. 

Ultimately, as I’ve said before, rotation depth could be what makes or breaks the Blue Jays' regular season. Whether or not they find a trustworthy fifth starter – be it Scherzer, Spencer Turnbull, Alek Manoah, or someone else – could be what makes the difference between the Jays earning a Wild Card berth or packing up their lockers come October. 

Yet, if the Blue Jays make the playoffs, their number five starter won’t matter anymore. Instead, the top of the rotation will be more important than ever. This makes me wonder if we’ve all spent too much time worrying about Toronto's lack of a fifth starter when we should be worrying that the Jays don’t have an ace. 

If Toronto is going to compete with the best of the best in the Wild Card race and into the playoffs, having a true stopper at the top of the rotation would go a long way. Which of this team’s three (healthy) veteran starters could best fill that role?

Chris Bassitt
Bassitt has pitched like an ace so far this season. He is 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA. The Blue Jays are 6-4 in his starts. Even better, his underlying numbers are similarly impressive. His FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA all put him among the top 10 qualified AL starters. So do his strikeout-to-walk ratio, strikeout rate minus walk rate, and groundball rate.

I wrote a piece earlier this month describing how Bassitt has improved his command, upped his chase rate, and decreased his walk rate to a career low. I’m not sure he has ever pitched this well in his career. But that’s just it. Bassitt has a long track record of pitching like a mid-rotation starter. He has a 3.57 ERA in just under 200 career starts. He’s also 36 years old and pitching with diminished velocity. He hasn’t dramatically changed his arsenal or any specific pitch within his arsenal. Everything we’ve seen so far has been terrific, but it’s just hard to believe that an aging Bassitt has really blossomed into an ace in his 11th big league season. In other words, it’s hard to believe he can maintain numbers like this throughout the summer, down the stretch, and into the playoffs. 

José Berríos
Berríos has been with the Blue Jays for four Opening Days. He has started on three of them, including this year’s opener against the Orioles. That’s not for nothing. It was only two months ago that John Schneider looked at all the pitchers on his staff – including Gausman and Bassitt, the highest-paid pitchers on the team; Francis, who was Toronto’s best arm over the final two months of 2024; and even Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young winner who had the best numbers of any Blue Jays starter in spring training – and the skipper picked Berríos to lead the team into 2025. 

Unfortunately, Berríos just hasn’t looked sharp this year. His 4.19 ERA is perfectly acceptable, but it’s a big step back from his mid-3.00s ERAs in 2023 and ‘24. His 5.11 xERA and 4.72 FIP are even worse. To his credit, Berríos outperformed his xERA and FIP in each of the past two years, and perhaps he can do so again. Regardless, the fact that all of his ERA estimators are higher than his ERA suggests he probably isn't due for some positive regression. Indeed, his velocity is down, his chase rate is down, his walk rate is the highest it's been since his rookie season, and opposing hitters are barreling him up more than ever. There’s very little about his profile that says “ace” right now.

Berríos was very effective from 2023-24, making 64 starts with a 3.63 ERA. He’s also significantly younger than Bassitt and Gausman. If I had to bet on a Blue Jays pitcher to make 32 starts this season, I’d pick Berríos in a heartbeat. Furthermore, it’s been less than two months since he made the third Opening Day start of his Blue Jays career. It’s clear the Blue Jays see his ace upside in Berríos. I’m just not sure I can say the same.

Kevin Gausman
As far as I’m concerned, Gausman is the no. 1 on this staff. I’ll be honest, I came up with the idea for this article last week, after Gausman gave up six runs on 10 hits (including three homers) against the Rays.

Following that performance, I genuinely had my doubts about who this team’s best starter might be. Then, Gausman made me realize I was putting too much stock in a small sample. He twirled seven beautiful innings against the Padres on Wednesday, striking out nine and walking one. The Blue Jays scored 14 that day, but they could have scored just once and still won the game. I’d argue this performance was one of only two truly ace-like outings we’ve seen from a Blue Jays pitcher all year. Gausman threw both of them. (The other was his eight-inning gem against the Red Sox in April.)

If you can overlook the wide gap between their ERAs, Gausman’s and Bassitt’s seasons don’t look all that different:

Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HBP	HR	FIP	SIERA	fWAR
Bassitt	57 1/3	61	11	2	6	2.99	3.15	1.4
Gausman	58	55	12	0	7	3.37	3.51	1.1

I can’t deny that Bassitt has been the better pitcher thus far in 2025. Still, if I’m presented with numbers this similar, I’m going to lean toward the pitcher who has been a bona fide ace in the recent past. I’m going to lean toward the pitcher who is two years younger and hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball. I’m going to lean toward the pitcher with the superior arsenal according to pitch models like PitchingBot, Pitching+, and PitchPro.

Am I confident that Gausman can still be the true ace he was at his peak from 2020-23? No. He wasn’t that pitcher last year, and he hasn’t been that pitcher this year either. However, if anyone is going to step up and be the ace the Blue Jays need this season, Gausman is the best bet.

Stats in article updated prior to games on May 23.

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