Article: Spencer Turnbull Might Be More Than a Stopgap for the Blue Jays

[Jim Scott]

The Jays have needs in the rotation and the bullpen. The Spencer Turnbull acquisition could prove more beneficial to both than expected.

It is no secret that the Jays have been struggling to find a fifth starter. Max Scherzer is hurt, Yariel Rodríguez seems more suited to the bullpen, Jake Bloss is struggling in Buffalo, and Easton Lucas’ first two outstanding starts were not sustainable. Toronto’s signing of Spencer Turnbull has largely been seen as a stopgap measure, to provide support until a longer-term solution can be found.

But is it possible that the “Orange Bull” could prove more than a band-aid?

Consider what an ideal fifth starter would look like. He would need to pitch at an acceptable but not necessarily elite level. Paul Skenes would be ideal, but he would be just a bit overqualified. A colleague of mine performed an analysis some years ago (hat tip to Bob Ritchie) and determined that a sustainable ERA of 4.50-5.00 would be more than sufficient for an “r-scale” fifth starter. A fifth starter should ideally also be a swingman, able to move to the bullpen when not needed in the rotation (or when another rotation option emerges). He should be able to give a decent number of innings when he does start and have bullpen experience for when he pitches in relief.

Turnbull does not have an overpowering fastball. His velocity of 92-93 mph was below major league average (24th percentile) in 2024. Last season, his fastballs ranked in the 38th percentile in Baseball Savant run value, and his four-seamer has a career Stuff+ of 89. But his slider and curve are at a very different level. His breaking ball run value in 2024 was in the 95th percentile (!), and his offspeed run value was in the 68th, giving him an overall pitching run value in the 75th percentile. (For comparison, last year, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt had pitching run values in the 65th, 58th, and 7th percentiles.) And his 2024 Stuff+ of 122 on his slider (career 115) and 105 on his curve (career 108) were both solidly above-average. In fact, his 122 slider Stuff+ in 2024 ranked 41st in baseball (min. 50 IP).

Furthermore, 2024 Turnbull matched his overall 101 Stuff+ with a 101 Location+ for a Pitching+ of 103. That is the same Pitching+ as 2024 Gausman.

Looking at more conventional statistics, Turnbull’s career ERA of 4.26 positions him as a weak no. 3/strong no. 4 r-scale starter. His 2025 projections are consistent with his career, with the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems both projecting an ERA between 3.95-4.39. That's more than sufficient for a no. 5. What's more, Turnbull’s statistics are consistent across different roles. His career ERA as a starter is 4.28, which is quite similar to his career 4.05 ERA as a reliever.

Turnbull also provides a decent number of innings per start. In 67 career starts, he has pitched 337 innings, or just over five innings per start (he averaged the same 5.0 IP per start in 2024). That's not bad when you consider that the average full-time MLB starter averaged only 5.3 innings per start in 2024.

But can Turnbull be counted on in high-pressure situations? FanGraphs has a statistic they call “clutch.” It represents how well a pitcher performed in high-leverage situations as compared to regular or low-leverage ones. Turnbull’s 2024 clutch score was +0.72. Of 351 pitchers with fifty or more innings pitched, he ranked 38th – higher than any Blue Jay other than Génesis Cabrera.

The Bottom Line
There are plenty of caveats when it comes to projecting Spencer Turnbull’s future value to the Blue Jays. Past performance is no guarantee of future success, particularly when a player is coming off a major injury. And Turnbull only pitched 54 1/3 innings in Philadelphia in 2024 (with only 7 starts) before his injury, so the usual small sample size warnings are especially valid. Other reasons for concern include his 92-mph fastball, having only pitched more than 60 innings once in his career, and his age; he turns 33 in September. But the upside potential is also there. Sometimes, to succeed, a team needs to gamble. And the “Orange Bull” could be a gamble with a handsome payoff.

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