Article: With Max Scherzer in the Fold, Who Is the Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter?

[Peter Snow]

If the Blue Jays are going to find their way back into playoff contention, the back-end of the rotation will be every bit as important as the front.

The Blue Jays rotation is set at the top, with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and José Berríos all set to return. Future hall-of-famer Max Scherzer signed at the end of January, and while we will need to wait and see if the 40-year-old can stay healthy and productive, he is projected by most as the fourth starter. That leaves the fifth rotation spot, which the team has indicated is up for grabs, with Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez entering camp as the front runners.

Francis might be the obvious favourite. After an exceptional run in 2024, it’s easy for Jays fans to be excited about the possibilities. The projection systems foresee regression for Francis because of his probably unsustainable .211 BABIP in 2024. His FIP was a full run higher than his ERA. He was outperforming his peripherals, and given that he does not have a track record of success, it’s hard to err on the optimistic side. Age is one of Francis’ biggest challenges moving forward. Entering his age-29 season, and with only 48 major league appearances to his credit, he’s not exactly a hot, young prospect. If Francis can repeat last year’s performance, he fits right in with the Jays' reliable crew of starters. 

Rodríguez is widely projected as a swing arm who will spend time in the bullpen and make spot starts. In 86 2/3 innings in 2024, he pitched to a 4.47 ERA and a 4.34 FIP. Obviously, he is a below-average pitcher with a 112 ERA-, but his performance was more than adequate for a fifth starter. His biggest weakness is a 10.9% walk rate.  He turns 28 in March and offers an impressive slider and above-average fastball. While the Blue Jays clearly want to use him as a starter, his pitch mix probably plays better out of the bullpen. Ross Atkins has indicated that Rodríguez will have an opportunity at a regular spot in the rotation, and he appears up to the task.

Other Options?

The Blue Jays enter camp without any obvious prospects or invitees who can offer more than Francis and Rodríguez. 23-year-old Jake Bloss is the one prospect who should get an opportunity to prove himself this season. As the key return for Yusei Kikuchi, the organization has high expectations for the young pitcher. He blew through the minors with Houston, then put up eight less-than-stellar starts with the Astros before the trade to Toronto. Bloss was mediocre finishing out the season with the Bisons. With a strong fastball, standout slider, and useful curveball and changeup, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs gave Bloss a future value of 50 on the 20-80 scale, making him the team's top prospect. If he can translate his minor league performance to the big club, it will be hard to keep him out of the rotation. 

On Longenhagen's 2023 list, lefty Adam Macko ranked seventh in the organization. He ran an uninspiring 4.87 ERA in 16 starts at AA New Hampshire, but barring an outstanding spring training, should start the season in AAA. He has a plus curveball and a good fastball. It’s not clear if he fits better as a starter or reliever at this point. He may find his way to the majors this year as a reliever, but he is a long shot to have an impact. Ross Atkins has made it very clear that he considers Bloss and Macko as duel options for the number seven spot coming into camp.

The Darkest Horse

After having an internal brace procedure last June, Alek Manoah is expected to return by August. His story is well-known, and he may have worn out his welcome with Blue Jays fans. It’s easy to dismiss him as a complete bust after his otherworldly 2022 season. He was inconsistent prior to his injury, but in limited action, his strikeout rate improved over 2023, and he cut his walk rate from over 14% to 7.8%. His xFIP was also greatly improved from the previous year. He may not be a start anymore, but if everything breaks right, Manoah could be a useful starter or injury fill-in down the stretch.

The reality is that with the inevitable injuries, Francis and Rodríguez will get starts this year. The Blue Jays will need both to pitch well if they hope to compete. With some recent murmurs of a six-man rotation, it’s possible we will see even more starts from the pair. With Jake Bloss knocking on the door and the possible return of Alek Manoah, the Jays may find themselves with a surplus of options. That's a good problem to have.

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[SuperFuzzBigMuff]

Alek Manoah has a pretty sweet deal. $2.2M for this season and isn't expected to return until August. Even if he continues to suck and doesn't play ball again after this season he will be 27 years old and have made $13.5M. Set for life.