Article: A Franchise-Altering Decision Looms for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And the Blue Jays

[Jesse Burrill]

As the Februray 18 deadline approaches, breaking down some possible reasons for the lack of a deal.

With pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training this week and the NFL season officially behind us, the sports world turns its eyes to baseball. With every new season, we get new hopes of what the summer might bring, long nights at the ballpark, the crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, and the dream of chasing a pennant. The Blue Jays and their fans have every reason to be excited too. The team has added notable free agents and major trades, and before long we will be seeing photos and videos of bullpen and batting practice sessions in Dunedin. No matter what happens this summer, one question will surround the Blue Jays: will Vladimir Guerrero Jr., entering what could be his final year before he becomes a free agent, get a long-term extension done?

The case for retaining Guerrero is pretty clear. Entering his age 26 season, he has already had a phenomenal career: he's a four-time All-Star, an All-Star Game MVP, a Home Run Derby champ, a Gold Glove winner, and a two-time Silver Slugger winner. You could argue that he is just now entering the prime of his career, and he has said on multiple occasions that he loves the city of Toronto and would like to stay here long-term. The best time to sign Guerrero to a long-term deal was four years ago, and the second best time to sign him is today, but as every day brings us closer to his self-imposed deadline of February 18, it is worth considering the possible reasons for the hold-up?

1) Maybe the Blue Jays are trying to get a contract-year bump in performance.
In theory, this could make a lot of sense, the Blue Jays know that in order to reach the postseason and make a serious run, they know they need to maximize the potential of the players they have on this roster, and no one has more high-end potential on this team than Guerrero. There is some proof that hitters see a boost in performance during their final year before free agency. We don't have to look too far. Aaron Judge was a pending free agent going into the 2022 season and notably put up a 62-homer, 10.5-WAR season on his way to an AL MVP. This strategy could easily backfire, but the Blue Jays may be placing a bet that a highly-motivated Guerrero may put together the best performance of his career so far, and the team as a whole will certainly benefit from that.

2) Maybe the Front Office is genuinely worried about his long-term performance.
This might seem wild, as Guerrero has done things in his early career that almost no one in baseball can do, but consider this. Since his debut in 2019, Guerrero's -23 Fielding Run Value made him the 16th-worst defender in all of baseball. Likewise, his -14.8 baserunning runs above average make him the 11th-worst baserunner. Every bit of value he provides to the ball club comes solely from his bat. There isn't a perfect comp for Guerrero, but we can look at other big-bodied first basemen and see how they performed throughout their careers.

• Albert Pujols went from being a routine .900+ OPS bat right through his age 31 season, before averaging a .774 OPS from 2011-2021
• Miguel Cabrera averaged a .961 OPS for his first 13 years, before posting just a .710 OPS from his age 33 season onwards.
• Prince Fielder averaged a .916 OPS from 2005 to 2013 until injuries caught up to him at the age of 30 and he was out of Major League baseball just three years later.

There are exceptions to every rule and Guerrero is certainly different than these players. But the Blue Jays may not be sure they are going to get good production late into Guerrero's career.

3) Maybe the Blue Jays want to leave the decision to the next GM.
This one might just be wishful thinking, as the Ross Atkins-Mark Shapiro era has had some positive moments, but the Blue Jays have yet to come close to winning a World Series with this] group in charge. As things currently stand, Atkins is under contract through the 2026 season and Shapiro is under contract for just the 2025 season. There is more to the job than putting a competitive team on the field, but I am reminded of when Alex Anthopolouls took over from J.P. Ricciardi in October 2009, and his first order of business was trading franchise icon Roy Halladay.

This contract is one of the biggest decisions in franchise history, and if Atkins and Shapiro aren't certain about their long-term future, there could be some hesitancy to attach themselves to a player and to leave that decision to the next decision-maker. Ultimately, the Blue Jays have shown that they have the money and are willing to spend it on the top free agents. It seems logical that they would be interested in signing next offseason's biggest free agent (apologies to Kyle Tucker). Getting a deal done before the season so you have some certainty about 2025 and beyond can only be a good thing, and we will see if the Jays can get a deal done before the first full spring training workout.

No matter what happens, this will be a very big year both for Guerrero and the franchise as a whole. Guerrero will go a long way toward determining how much success the Blue Jays have in 2025 and the many years going forward. 

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