Article: Bounce Back Blues: More on the Blue Jays’ ZiPS Projections

[Davy Andrews]

The Blue Jays could make it into the playoffs, but only if a whole lot of things go right.

Last week, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs released the 2025 ZiPS projection for the Blue Jays, and on Sunday, my colleague Mike LeSage broke down some of his takeaways from the projections. But here’s the thing about projections systems: They’re a “best guess” machine, providing a range of possible outcomes, and we’re allowed to have a range of opinions about them. It’s easy to get mad when the projections don’t like your favourite player, but short of finding a real fortune teller, they’re as close as we get to predicting the future. 

In 2024, ZiPS was pretty high on the Jays and they underperformed wildly in several areas. This year ZiPS still finds a lot to like on the roster, so let’s dive in to some quick reactions. As Dan writes, ZiPS sees the Jays as around an 84- to 85-win team this season. He calls it “a really awkward spot” and I’d say it’s just not good enough for a team in this position. They have an aging supporting cast, and their expected stars are approaching free agency. They need to perform at or near their ceiling, or they’ll be looking at a busy sell off at the deadline. 

On the hitting side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in a class by himself, but below him, regression to the mean is doing some heavy lifting. ZiPS predicts bounce-back seasons Andrés Giménez, Alejandro Kirk, and Bo Bichette. ZiPs doesn’t expect much out of the outfield or third base (the less said about the DH situation the better). It’s reasonable to expect Giménez and Guerrero to land towards the top of their projected offensive numbers. While Vladdy has some recent lean years, he had an excellent season and could certainly replicate that in a walk year. ZiPS see’s him as the team’s only batter with a high floor; he’s the only one whose 20th percentile projection is above a 100 OPS+. It’s harder to get a read on the rest of the lineup. As much as ZiPS likes Kirk and Bichette, it’s fair to feel more comfortable with their 20th percentile projections (88 and 86 OPS+) than the high ceiling 80th percentile marks (126 and 133 OPS+). Every other batter is likely to be average or worse this season. Last year’s projections gave the team a high floor, which theoretically should have insulated them from the kind of season they had. ZiPS is not so optimistic this year, especially for the batters. As we’ve written elsewhere, there aren’t a lot of great, high-ceiling prospects to roll the dice on. Could Will Wagner, Addison Barger, or Leo Jimenez break out? It’s possible, but ZiPS doesn’t see any of them as more than an above-average player in even the most optimistic projections. 

The pitching staff was an overall disappointment last season. The team hasn’t done much to improve the rotation, and it projects out around league average overall.  Still a season full of league-average pitching is encouraging. The projections for Bowden Francis are not as rosy as some fans may like. His 80th percentile WAR is 1.8, and his ERA+ is projected to be 107 both in 2025 and over the next three seasons. An ERA that’s 7% better than league-average would still put him firmly in the top half of the rotation, but not quite the kind of dominance we saw last season. It wouldn’t be surprising if he blew through his ceiling, and threw more than the 103 1/3 innings ZiPS predicts at a much higher level.

ZiPS sees the bullpen as a potential strength, and that's from before the team added relief ace Jeff Hoffman. T hat’s a sharp contrast from the reality of last season, but there are enough new faces to think it’s possible. Reliever performance is so variable from year to year, it’s hard to feel confident in any projection system. 

Overall, ZiPS sees the Blue Jays the way many fans and media do: they have some talent, a lot of average players, and some glaring questions. Their success depends on multiple players bouncing back from dismal performances at the same time. Things don’t normally work that way, but for all the faults, if you squint just right you can see the makings of a fringe Wild Card team. Will that be enough to keep Vlad interested in a long-term deal? Opening day can’t come soon enough. 

Some additional thoughts:

There’s something a little nostalgic about Daulton Varsho having Jose Cruz Jr. as a hitting comp. 

ZiPS thinks Andrés Giménez might steal 26 bases this year. That was Whit Merrifield’s total in 2023. As Owen Hill predicted this morning, perhaps we will see the team’s first 30-steal season since Jose Réyes in 2014.

Alek Manoah’s projected stats put him at slightly above replacement level. It’s not surprising, but it’s sad to see how low his stock remains. 

A couple of dark horse break through candidates: RJ Schreck and Orelvis Martinez have solid 80th percentile projections. 

 

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