Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays in Buffalo (Game 4/4)

[Ray]

The whole 100 pitch count max pisses me off. They will let a SP throw 70-90 pitches, put a reliever in there that will go 1-2 innings possibly throwing 40 pitches and go back out there in a day or 2. If the Jays didn't have a great pen the team would be f***ed.

 

90 pitches is literally just as arbitrary of a number as 100.....

 

100 pitches = wow amazing!!!!!?!?#!!

 

90 pitches with the same results = wow that sucks

 

The fact that there's a wide variance in how many pitches are thrown before starters are pulled should tell you that they're primarily worried about the 3rd time through the order above anything else, which is where OPS against historically skyrockets. The one pitcher this doesn't seem to apply to is Ryu, who either runs his pitch count too high before going through the order a 3rd time, or has actually been blown up when he does.

 

Either way, this front office employs incredibly smart analysts to come up with the best and and most efficient way to deploy the pitching staff they have who then communicate this to Pete Walker and Montoyo. I would tend to trust them over anyone here's analysis.

[KevinGregg]

I would bet my nuts that most of them are. Maybe not the bunting.

 

keep in mind that the person who revealed the "RA Dickey Effect" to the world is an analyst with the team. If he figured that out in his free time seven years ago while in college, what kind of smart s*** is he figuring out when he's getting paid to do it?

They also have an analyst who was at the forefront of using pitch level data to estimate ERA talent. As in, if you had data from a couple of games and knew a pitcher's whiff rate, etc., you could get a better ERA estimator in a small sample than FIP or xFIP or SIERA.

 

Aren't both of these the same person? http://www.breakingblue.ca/author/chris-carruthers/

 

I didn't know he works for the Jays now, was this common knowledge?

[Laika]

Aren't both of these the same person? http://www.breakingblue.ca/author/chris-carruthers/

 

I didn't know he works for the Jays now, was this common knowledge?

 

For the second point I was talking about the fabled FRIAS, not TIPS.

 

It's publicly available knowledge. Probably not common knowledge because who would really care!

[KevinGregg]

What's FRIAS? I love the idea of TIPS and I wish we saw more analysis using it. Seems like a massive breakthrough that no one ever talks about