General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Spanky99]

[tercet]

tercet, thoughts on Gurribabip doubling his BB%?

 

2018: 3.4% BB%

2019: 6.8% BB%

 

His swing% has gone from 53.1% last season to 46.9% this season, so he's literally being more selective. Not any smoke and mirrors.

 

It's almost as if younger players can improve the more they play.

 

Yea he does look a bit more selective, but his bb% over the last 3 weeks probably wont keep up long term. It is near impossible to double your walk rate after 1000~ PA of 4%, maybe he can get to 5.5-6%, but nothing above that.

 

But nothing has really changed imo with my thoughts about him, he's still striking out too much, his bb% will regress to the mean soon enough, and babip wont stay above 400 forever(lol Gurribabip).

 

He is a hitter with major flaws, and like pretty much every flawed hitter will fail long term in the majors versus good pitchers. He is still a worse hitter then 'The Mirage' imo. Looked what happened to 'The Mirage' when all of you thought he was good this time last year and all gave me s***, and I stuck to my guns despite random small samples where he hit well.

 

Remember few years ago when everyone thought Ryan Goins changed bc of a 6 week sample where he doubled his bb rate?

 

Stop cherry picking small samples, process > results long term, Gurribabip is still terrible at baseball

[tercet]

It's also like if you try to sound smart by predicting that every prospect is going to fail, you're going to be wrong eventually...

 

I don't say every prospect will fail come on.

 

Most sports fans are results oriented as opposed to being process oriented which I am mostly due to 15~ years of poker.

[tercet]

Biggio process is decent, but results are meh so far.

 

If he can BB 12-16%, K 28-32% and put up a 115~ wrc that will be sick which seems like a realistic forecast. He will be a 2.5~ war player with average at best defense in 2B/LF?

[tercet]

Oh gee golly lets look at the history of players similar to Gurribabip over a decent sample, oh wait they all suck except for Javier Baez, Marylon Byrd and CJ Cron over the last 10 years~

 

As variance catches up to him over a larger sample, his poor process will end with him in the middle of that chart like every other hacker.

 

[tercet]

.

 

but gurribabip is teh exception he is 1337!

Buck, tabby, shill davidi, arden shilling, benjamin shillson-smith, arashill madani said he is good at beisboll!!!

[Abomination]

but gurribabip is teh exception he is 1337!

Buck, tabby, shill davidi, arden shilling, benjamin shillson-smith, arashill madani said he is good at beisboll!!!

 

What exactly did you filter your list on, because there definitely appears to be people missing off it if it's just walk and k rate (not the least of which is Baez, who you reference above but doesn't appear on your list).

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Would you guys do this trade?

 

The Atlanta Braves get Stroman, Giles and reliever Joe Biagini and the Jays get centre fielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Kyle Wright, lefty Sean Newcomb and reliever Touki Toussaint.

[Captain Adama]

Would you guys do this trade?

 

The Atlanta Braves get Stroman, Giles and reliever Joe Biagini and the Jays get centre fielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Kyle Wright, lefty Sean Newcomb and reliever Touki Toussaint.

 

No.

[BlueRocky]

If they’re getting both Stroman and Giles we better be hauling in some real blue chip guys in return.

 

Newcomb has less years of control and history of command issues. We want a guy with a bit more to dream on, we don’t really have a shortage of backend guys.

 

Also not a huge fan of Ender Inciarte. It would be an upgrade because our OF is bad, but upgrading on 2019 season shouldn’t be the goal in a Stroman/Giles package. It should be 2021++. Dude is also having a bad year while also dealing with back issues.

 

All this fantasy trade talk is a moot point but if the Jays for some reason do talk to the Braves they need to be careful. A lot of those arms have either been fast tracked like crazy, have injury risk, or having disappointing seasons. Trying to find the diamond in the rough is like sweeping through a minefield, can easily land on a dud. There’s a lot of upside there and young prospects so they really need to do the homework to pick out the right guys.

 

Also Atlanta is less likely to do a trade like this now with Keuchel signed

Edited June 16, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Abomination]

Would you guys do this trade?

 

The Atlanta Braves get Stroman, Giles and reliever Joe Biagini and the Jays get centre fielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Kyle Wright, lefty Sean Newcomb and reliever Touki Toussaint.

 

I'd do Giles and Biagini for Newcomb (who they're basically using as a reliever anyway). I'd want a separate deal somewhere else for Stroman though.

[tercet]

What exactly did you filter your list on, because there definitely appears to be people missing off it if it's just walk and k rate (not the least of which is Baez, who you reference above but doesn't appear on your list).

 

4-6bb, 22-26k, >250pa

Baez is above the K filter though

[Daniel Labude]

Would you guys do this trade?

 

The Atlanta Braves get Stroman, Giles and reliever Joe Biagini and the Jays get centre fielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Kyle Wright, lefty Sean Newcomb and reliever Touki Toussaint.

 

No, do not want Inciarte for any of that and we can do way better if we trade all that to 1 team

[Jimcanuck]

Upton and Simmons coming back, add the Halos to the potential suitors for Stroman and Giles. Some interesting pieces in their farm.

[King]

4-6bb, 22-26k, >250pa

Baez is above the K filter though

I mean, the present Gurriel probably sucks with his terrible BB:K ratio, but the idea is that you hope he can develop enough to post K rates like he did in the minors (12-18%).

[tercet]

I mean, the present Gurriel probably sucks with his terrible BB:K ratio, but the idea is that you hope he can develop enough to post K rates like he did in the minors (12-18%).

 

But the odds are 1~% that he will cut his K by 33%, it is near impossible to do that. I can't think of anyone who has anything similar to it.

 

Gurribabips brother is who your hoping for King, and despite godly numbers in Cuba/Japan, he can't do s*** vs good pitchers like every other hacker.

 

Gurribabip can randomly look good in small samples when pitchers give him cookies, but long term he is f***ed, bc he wont constantly get cookies, and major league pitchers will pwn his flaws. It is hilarious people who think that he is anything besides a trainwreck,

 

The most wtfbbq change Jays related in the last 10~ yrs that I can think of is when Ryan Goins during August 1st - Oct 1st 2015 he had a 13.1 BB% and hit 284/376/402 over 198PA.

 

process >> results

[King]

But the odds are 1~% that he will cut his K by 33%, it is near impossible to do that. I can't think of anyone who has anything similar to it.

 

Gurribabips brother is who your hoping for King, and despite godly numbers in Cuba/Japan, he can't do s*** vs good pitchers like every other hacker.

 

The most wtfbbq change Jays related in the last 10~ yrs that I can think of is when Ryan Goins during August 1st - Oct 1st 2015 he had a 13.1 BB% and hit 284/376/402 over 198PA.

 

Took me 30 seconds to find Marcus Semien, who put up a k rate of 31% and 27% in his first 2 seasons, then 22% in his next 3, and now he's cut it to 14% this season

[BTS]

Took me 30 seconds to find Marcus Semien, who put up a k rate of 31% and 27% in his first 2 seasons, then 22% in his next 3, and now he's cut it to 14% this season

 

Cody Bellinger also cut his k-rate by like 10% this year.

[tercet]

Took me 30 seconds to find Marcus Semien, who put up a k rate of 31% and 27% in his first 2 seasons, then 22% in his next 3, and now he's cut it to 14% this season

 

Well gulp I guess I'm wrong, but he had a 9~%BB over a decent sample so its possible to cut K% 33%, but hackers gonna hack and get destroyed in the mlb.

[Ex Player]

I'm getting really worried aboot Jansen

[King]

Cody Bellinger also cut his k-rate by like 10% this year.

Tim Anderson: 27, 26, 24, 19

Kris Bryant: 30% in his rookie year, 18% this year

[Ex Player]

He's safe!!!!!!

[jmomcc]

I'm getting really worried aboot Jansen

 

I thought his approach at the plate was starting to look a lot better like a month ago but results are not coming.

 

The silver lining is that he looks like he play his position at an above average level.

[tercet]

Tim Anderson: 27, 26, 24, 19

Kris Bryant: 30% in his rookie year, 18% this year

 

Hmm well its possible, but still very unlikely imo....

 

But variance is weird, Gurribabip could put up 125wrc randomly over a 500PA sample, and still have a career wrc 80~ which is his 90% likely outcome.

 

I made 120k~ last year in poker, and making like 2/hr so far this year while pretty much even over my last 200k hands, lol

 

lol variance

[DigitalRock]

I'm getting really worried aboot Jansen

 

His swing looks woefully slow. Can't remember it looking like that last year

[Ex Player]

I thought his approach at the plate was starting to look a lot better like a month ago but results are not coming.

 

The silver lining is that he looks like he play his position at an above average level

While I agree with your positive attitude, please explain to us how exactly he plays his position at an above average level

[jmomcc]

While I agree with your positive attitude, please explain to us how exactly he plays his position at an above average level

 

 

I thought his framing numbers were above average? If that isn’t true, I take it back.

[Ex Player]

His swing looks woefully slow. Can't remember it looking like that last year

Thats the part that worries me, his batspeed

[Ex Player]

LOL @ AstJays

 

Thats awesome!!

[Orgfiller]

While I agree with your positive attitude, please explain to us how exactly he plays his position at an above average level

 

He's been an elite defensive catcher, so I'd like you to explain to us how he hasn't been playing his position at an above average level.