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Posted

BA updated their mock top 10

 

___

 

1. Orioles — Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State

 

Surprised to see Rutschman’s name here? We didn’t think so. Through four games with the Beavers, the top prospect in the country is hitting .333/.579/.833 with seven walks to four strikeouts and two home runs. Rutschman has been safely entrenched in the No. 1 spot for months now, and there’s no reason to think that he’s anything but the favorite to go 1-1 this June.

 

2. Royals — Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville (Texas) Heritage

 

The top high school prospect in the country started his season yesterday, with many Texas schools opening up play this week. Witt still has arguably the best overall profile in the class when it comes to playing a premium position at a high level, with plus power and speed. If he hits at a high level this spring, he should be the pick here behind Rutschman.

 

3. White Sox — Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California

 

Vaughn is doing Golden Spikes sort of things early this season. After four games in the Angels College Classic in Arizona, Vaughn is hitting a whopping .455/.700/1.000 with a pair of home runs and an unseemly 1:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The short, right-right first base profile is a tough one that hasn’t historically been borne out with a lot of success, but Vaughn is such a complete hitter that he could become the highest-drafted college first baseman since 1998, when Pat Burrell was taken with the No. 1 overall pick by the Phillies. Brendan McKay’s No. 4 selection in 2017 is the mark to beat, though. If you don’t want to count McKay given his two-way nature, the next-best mark is No. 7. Virginia's Pavin Smith (D-backs, 2017), Miami's Yonder Alonso (Reds, 2008) and Florida's Matt LaPorta (Brewers, 2007) were all selected with the seventh pick in their respective drafts. It would be surprising if Vaughn wasn’t selected before that.

 

4. Marlins — C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS, Roswell, Ga.

 

Abrams could go higher than this, and it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see him selected as the first non-Rutschman player off the board given the way some scouts have been talking about him this spring. He’s a faster runner than Witt, and he hits from the left side with better bat-to-ball skills. If a team believes he’ll become a premium defender at either shortstop or centerfield and develop more power down the line, then it’s easy to dream on him. Even if he goes after Witt, it would be surprising for him to not get selected among the top five to six picks at this point. He’s gone 4-for-10 through three games, with three doubles and has yet to strikeout.

 

5. Tigers — Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS, Oviedo, Fla.

 

Witt and Abrams will likely both be off the board before Greene, given a huge edge in supplemental tools and position, but there are scouts who put 70-future grades on Green’s hit tool and that means he’s going off the board quickly, regardless of where he has to play defensively. The Tigers last four first-round picks have been righthanded pitchers, but given the way the class is shaping up and what we have in front of them in this mock, Greene makes plenty of sense here.

 

JJ_Bleday_JohnByrumGetty.jpg

Baseball America College Podcast: Preseason All-Americans

Teddy Cahill and Carlos Collazo break down the Preseason All-America teams and Vanderbilt outfielder JJ Bleday joins the show.

 

6. Padres — Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy, Statesboro, Ga.

 

This is where things get tricky, not necessarily because it’s the Padres picking, but because the first five players are the easiest and most obvious to get off the board. This is the range where college hitters who perform could start to become more of a factor, though with San Diego it’s tempting to pair them with both a high school player and a pitcher. Lefthander Hunter Barco has taken huge strides with his body composition this spring and the early reports from scouts are exciting. It’s tempting to put a prep lefthander here, but we’ll hold off on Barco this high for now and instead lean towards the prep arm with the best pure stuff in the class.

 

7. Reds — Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

 

Jung hasn’t tapped into his power through three games this season (a fourth against Oregon was canceled), but he is the best college hitter on the board at this point and has posted a .333/.429/.417 slash line with two walks and two strikeouts. The power will come. More interestingly for the Reds here, they have taken college third baseman in first round in two of the last three years (Nick Senzel in 2016 and Jonathan India in 2018).

 

8. Rangers — Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS, Seattle

 

Carroll doesn’t start playing games until early March, but the Rangers have taken a high school player with 11 of their last 13 first-round picks, dating back to 2009. Carroll isn’t as tooled-up as fellow prep outfielder Jerrion Ealy, but he challenges Greene for the title of best pure hitter in the prep class while also being among the best defenders in center field as well.

 

9. Braves — Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State

 

Let’s get a bit weird. With Brian Bridges no longer calling the shots as scouting director for Atlanta, maybe this will be the first year since 2014 that they don’t take a pitcher in the first round. Nine of the Braves' last 10 first-round pick have been pitchers, with Braxton Davidson in 2014 being the only exception. In this scenario, the Braves are going back to North Carolina, but to the college side with one of the best pure hitters in the college class in Wolfpack shortstop Will Wilson. Wilson has started the year strong through four games with a .333/.444/.867 slash line, a pair of home runs, a pair of doubles and two walks to two strikeouts. He also has a tremendous track record of hitting in college, and while teams don’t and shouldn’t draft for organizational need, he happens to fill that as a middle infielder, whether that’s at shortstop or second. A rising college bat makes sense in this 6-10 range, and so far in this young college season Wilson fits that profile better than many.

 

10. Giants — Graeme Stinson, LHP, Duke

 

San Francisco has a terrific track record of developing pitchers, so let’s give them the pitcher with the best pure stuff still on the board here at No. 10. Stinson was good in his debut against Lehigh, though he threw just three innings and will need to work deeper into games throughout the season as he gets stretched out. He struck out six batters and walked none, allowing just three hits while showcasing his typical stuff. A Graeme Stinson/Joey Bart battery would be exciting to watch throughout the minors, and in this scenario that becomes a possibility.

 

RELATED STORIES

Posted
I know his profile sucks, but Andrew Vaughn may very well end up being the safest pick in this draft. He's trending towards having a better season than Kris Bryant did in his Jr. season, in a far better college division as well. Also hit well in the Cape Cod league.
Posted
I know his profile sucks, but Andrew Vaughn may very well end up being the safest pick in this draft. He's trending towards having a better season than Kris Bryant did in his Jr. season, in a far better college division as well. Also hit well in the Cape Cod league.

 

Why does his profile suck?

Posted
Why does his profile suck?

 

Fangraphs: Dreaded R/R first baseman without physical projection or plus-plus raw power, but he had a cartoonish sophomore year (.400/.530/.820) and no one doubts he'll hit.

Posted
Fangraphs: Dreaded R/R first baseman without physical projection or plus-plus raw power, but he had a cartoonish sophomore year (.400/.530/.820) and no one doubts he'll hit.

 

Seems to be a really good profile but then scouts love their toolsy outfielders that can't hit.

Posted

Alek Manoah (Photo by John Williamson)

By Carlos Collazo on February 26, 2019

 

With two weekends in the books in college baseball, there’s been plenty of movement across the country as it relates to the 2019 draft.

Here at Baseball America, we regularly track how the top players in the country are doing by watching games and talking to scouts around the nation as we update our draft rankings which eventually turns into the BA 500 in May.

However, as we take note of interesting players who are climbing up draft boards or sliding down them, we figured it would be worth checking into why certain players are moving up and why others are trending in the wrong direction.

Today, we’ll take a look at the college class specifically, though if you need to get some high school draft nuggets in your life, a number of high-profile prep prospects took the field last week at PBR’s Florida Preseason Classic and we also released a 1-10 Mock Draft last Friday.

Here's a list of previous stock watches:

Jan. 18 | Feb. 8 | Feb. 19

Let’s dive right in, with the caveat that small sample sizes absolutely apply to every player listed below:

 

Rising

 

Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia

 

Manoah has impressed in both of his first two starts this season, starting with a 13-strikeout game against Kennesaw State on Feb. 15 and followed up with a second strong outing against Georgia Southern last Friday, when he went 6.1 innings and fanned eight batters, while walking just two. On the season, Manoah has 21 strikeouts to just two walks, with a 0.78 ERA over 12.1 innings. One of the big items for Manoah to check off his to-do list this spring was to cut down on his walks and work deeper into games. It’s just two starts, but he’s started off on the right track, working at least six innings in both outings with a 1.46 BB/9 compared to a 5.34 BB/9 mark in 2017 and 4.67 BB/9 in 2018. Through Sunday’s games, Manoah is tied for fourth in the country in strikeouts, along with Elon righthander George Kirby (who we touched on last week), Texas A&M lefthander Asa Lacy, and Sam Houston State righthander Hayden Wesneski.

Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri

Misner is off to a hot start, hitting .440/.588/.760 through his first seven games against North Florida, Florida A&M, Northeastern and Rhode Island. After injuries limited Misner to just 34 games last season, scouts will look for him to showcase his hit tool over a full season and cut down his strikeouts. The important games in the SEC have yet to come, but so far Misner has more than held his own, with nine walks to five strikeouts and a pair of home runs—both of which came in a 5-4 win over North Florida on Feb. 16.

 

Erik Miller, LHP, Stanford

College lefthanders are always a coveted demographic in the draft, and Miller has boosted his stock with a pair of impressive starts to begin the season. On Feb. 17 against Wichita State, Miller went five innings and struck out nine batters, then followed that up with a Feb. 24 start against Nevada-Las Vegas in which he fanned six more in six innings of work. He faced UNLV shortstop Bryson Stott (No. 27) in that matchup and struck him out in his first at-bat before surrendering a home run in the fourth and then walking him intentionally in the fifth. Miller’s big question with scouts entering the season was in regards to his control and mechanics. His current 3.27 BB/9 is a big improvement from the 4.25 mark he posted in 13 starts a year ago and will see him rise on boards if he keeps that kind of strike-throwing ability up.

 

Josh Smith, SS, Louisiana State

Smith entered the season outside of the top-tier group of college shortstops, ranked No. 76 in the country, but is making his case to join that group with a torrid start to the season. He has multi-hit games in five of his first seven games, including a four-hit game with two doubles against Air Force on Feb. 17, good for a .522/.577/.652 slash line through games before Tuesday. He’s been the catalyst at the top of 7-0 LSU’s lineup, and he leads the team with 11 runs. We’ll check back once Smith gets a taste of conference play, because an SEC shortstop hitting at a high level goes quickly on draft day.

 

Ivan Johnson, SS/2B, Chipola JC

Johnson’s 2018 SEC numbers are going to allow teams plenty of room to criticize his hit tool—he posted a .239/.314/.283 line in 46 at-bats with Georgia before transferring out of the program—but he’s doing a lot to prove he’s better than that with a loud start this season. The switch-hitting middle infielder has loosened up his body since last year and is currently hitting .456/.530/.719 with three home runs and as many walks (9) as strikeouts (9) through 17 games this season. Johnson has been one of the few early bright spots for a Chipola team that has struggled out of the gate, and he showcased his impressive raw power from both sides of the plate at a heavily scouted PBR Florida Preseason Classic game last week, with multiple national crosscheckers in attendance. Against State JC of Florida, Johnson went 4-for-6 with a double and a massive home run that almost cleared the batter’s eye in dead-center field at IMG Academy. You can check out Johnson’s home run, a pair of his singles as well as batting practice and infield footage in the video below.

 

 

Shea Langeliers Propels Baylor Back Into The National Conversation

Baylor enters the 2019 NCAA baseball season ranked No. 15 -- its highest preseason ranking since 2009. The rise of Shea Langeliers is a big reason why.

 

Falling

 

Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson

One of the more polarizing players in the class, Davidson needs to show a more consistent hit tool and cut down his strikeouts this spring. Scouts are still waiting for both of those to happen, as the tooled-up shortstop has gone 6-for-23 with a team-high nine strikeouts and five walks over his first seven games against South Alabama, Charlotte and VMI. When he has hit, Davidson has managed to hit for power, with a pair of home runs and two doubles already on the resume, but his power has never been questioned, only how frequently he might be able to get to that power against higher-quality pitching. It’s early, but there’s still a lot to prove if the First-Team Preseason All-American is going to actually be the first college shortstop off the board.

 

Tyler Dyson, RHP, Florida

Florida’s Friday starter will always have lofty expectations to live up to, and while the degree of fairness that entails is up for debate, Dyson has missed the mark after two starts to begin the season. He debuted with a 3.1-inning outing against Long Beach State Feb. 15, when he struck out four batters and walked four and followed it up with a four-inning start last Friday against Miami in a 5-2 loss to the Hurricanes. In his second outing, Dyson reigned in the walks—issuing just one free pass—but surrendered six hits and needed 92 pitches to record 12 outs.

 

Will Holland, SS, Auburn

Holland entered the season as the top-ranked college shortstop in the class (No. 17 overall), but has gone just 3-for-21 through his first six games this season against Georgia Southern, Alabama A&M and Central Florida. A proclivity for drawing walks has salvaged his offensive line, as he’s drawn eight free passes to help boost an otherwise underwhelming line of .143/.379/.190 with four strikeouts. Holland impressed in both the spring and summer in 2018, hitting 12 home runs with Auburn and posting a career-high .936 OPS and posting an .863 OPS in 13 games in the Cape Cod League. The 2019 season hasn’t started as smoothly with the bat.

 

Pat DeMarco, OF, Vanderbilt

Demarco has struggled out of the gate for Vanderbilt, going 3-for-25 (.120) with nine strikeouts and just two walks in his first six games. Among Vanderbilt’s regular hitters, DeMarco is at the bottom of the table with a .120/.179/.160 slash line. That’s not going to cut it, regardless of whether or not a team thinks he’s going to stick in center field at the next level. He’s shown a proclivity for the bat previously, both as a freshman in the SEC and as a high school hitter, but he’ll need to get things rolling to standout in a deep Vanderbilt lineup in his draft-eligible sophomore season.

 

Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor

This is more a product of not playing than poor performance, but that’s still factored into the rising/falling calculations, especially for a player like Langeliers who had something to prove this season with the bat. Last year an injury to Oregon State second baseman Nick Madrigal didn’t affect his stock in the slightest because of his well-established track record of hitting at an exceptional level, but Langeliers entered 2019 needing to bounce back from a .252/.351/.496 line to go within the top-10 picks. His toolset is still well-rounded and college catchers with his talent go quickly, but he now has fewer at-bats to convince crosscheckers and scouting directors that his talent is more in line with the 2017 hitter who posted a .313/.388/.540 slash line as a freshman in the Big 12.

Posted

Blue jays need to go 6 or 7 rounds pitching heavy. In the first eight rounds.

Here's a example of the jays first 8 rounds.

Carter Stewart P

Kendall Williams p

Gianluca Dalatri P

Jimmy Lewis P

Zach Zubia P

Mason Cole P

Austin Plante OF

Alex Helmin 1B

And some real pitching horses.

Posted
Blue jays need to go 6 or 7 rounds pitching heavy. In the first eight rounds.

Here's a example of the jays first 8 rounds.

Carter Stewart P

Kendall Williams p

Gianluca Dalatri P

Jimmy Lewis P

Zach Zubia P

Mason Cole P

Austin Plante OF

Alex Helmin 1B

And some real pitching horses.

 

Personally I'd rather draft bats and buy pitchers.

Posted
Blue jays need to go 6 or 7 rounds pitching heavy. In the first eight rounds.

Here's a example of the jays first 8 rounds.

Carter Stewart P

Kendall Williams p

Gianluca Dalatri P

Jimmy Lewis P

Zach Zubia P

Mason Cole P

Austin Plante OF

Alex Helmin 1B

And some real pitching horses.

 

There's no rule that says a horse can't play baseball.

Verified Member
Posted
Andrew Vaughn slash line update through 50 PA's.

 

529/680/1.176

 

5K's, 15 BB's, 7 HR's

 

Just give him the Golden Spikes now.

 

Also of note, Jordan Groshans' brother Jaxx is having a good start to his season: .406/.556/1.000, 8K's, 12BB, 6HR in 45 PA's. He's a catcher and draft eligible this year.

Posted
Just give him the Golden Spikes now.

 

Also of note, Jordan Groshans' brother Jaxx is having a good start to his season: .406/.556/1.000, 8K's, 12BB, 6HR in 45 PA's. He's a catcher and draft eligible this year.

 

I had no idea that Jordan had a draft eligible bro! Thanks. His numbers were alright last year and he's already doubled his HR totals. Doesn't appear on BA top 200 draft prospects though.

 

Seems like a pretty solid dude too.

Posted
I had no idea that Jordan had a draft eligible bro! Thanks. His numbers were alright last year and he's already doubled his HR totals. Doesn't appear on BA top 200 draft prospects though.

 

Seems like a pretty solid dude too.

 

Just posted today

 

 

____

 

 

 

oregon_state.jpg

Adley Rutschman

Oregon State C

Notes:

Rutschman has established himself as the best player in the draft class thanks to a stellar sophomore year that saw him earn All-American honors, be named College World Series Most Outstanding Player after leading the Beavers to the national championship and then star for Team USA during the summer. He has a premium skillset and rates above-average in hitting, power, defense and arm strength.

 

2

Baylor_baseball.jpg

Shea Langeliers

Baylor C

Notes:

In most years, Langeliers would clearly be the best catcher in the class. He has a solid all-around skillset, though his offensive tools grade out more as average. He suffered a broken hamate on Opening Weekend and will be sidelined by the injury for a few weeks. It shouldn’t affect his draft stock much, however. Nick Madrigal had the same injury a year ago and still went fourth overall.

 

3

washington.jpg

Nick Kahle

Washington C

Notes:

The Huskies have had an impressive run of catchers in the last five years, with Austin Rei (2015) and Joey Morgan (2017) going out in the third round and Willie MacIver (2018) picked in the ninth round. Kahle is the next in line and stands out for his catch-and-throw skills. He’s off to a strong start offensively this spring and has good contact skills.

 

4

unc.jpg

Brandon Martorano

North Carolina C

Notes:

Martorano has been a solid presence behind the plate the last two seasons for North Carolina. He’s a steady defender with above-average arm strength. Offensively, he has above-average raw power, though it comes with some swing-and-miss.

 

5

kansas.jpg

Jaxx Groshans

Kansas C

Notes:

Groshans’ younger brother Jordan was the 12th overall pick in last year’s draft. Jaxx won’t match his brother’s lofty draft status but is a solid prospect in his own right. He has the athleticism to play third base and the outfield, but he’s most comfortable behind the plate. He is aggressive offensively but has a good overall feel for the game.

6

ole_miss.jpg

Cooper Johnson

Ole Miss C

Notes:

Johnson was a prominent player out of the Illinois prep ranks and was voted a first-team Preseason High School All-American by MLB scouting directors in 2016. Known for his premium defense, he hadn’t hit much in college before this year. But he’s started this season hot offensively and if he can maintain that to go with his above-average arm strength and defense, he would make a move up draft boards this spring.

 

7

Minnesota_Logo.png

Eli Wilson

Minnesota C

Notes:

The son of former Gophers star and All-Star catcher Dan Wilson, Eli Wilson is in his second season as Minnesota’s starter behind the plate. He is a steady all-around player with some power and good feel at the plate to go with solid defensive skills.

 

8

georgia-tech.png

Kyle McCann

Georgia Tech C

Notes:

With Joey Bart behind the plate for Georgia Tech, McCann mostly played first base the last two seasons. He’s taken over behind the plate this year, however, where his arm strength plays well. He also offers plenty of lefthanded power, making for an intriguing combination.

 

9

MISSOURI-STATE-UNIVERSITY-288x250.jpg

Drew Millas

Missouri State C

Notes:

The Bears have had an impressive run of producing hitters, with Jake Burger and Jeremy Eierman being drafted in the top two rounds in back-to-back years. Millas may not have that lofty of a ceiling, but as a switch hitter with good bat speed and above-average arm strength, he is an intriguing prospect.

 

10

vanderbilt.jpg

Phillip Clarke

Vanderbilt C

Notes:

A draft-eligible sophomore, Clarke has gotten off to a solid start at the plate this spring. The lefthanded hitter has above-average raw power and makes a lot of hard contact. Defensively, Clarke isn’t as advanced, but he has made some strides in the last year.

Posted

Andrew Vaughn Could Become The Highest Drafted College First Baseman Ever

 

California first baseman Andrew Vaughn is once again lighting the college baseball world on fire. A year after winning the 2018 Golden Spikes Award with a .402/.531/.819 season that included 23 home runs, Vaughn has upped the ante.

 

It’s still early, and conference play in the Pac-12 won’t get started until next weekend, but so far Vaughn is hitting a scorching .529/.680/1.176 with seven home runs and 15 walks to five strikeouts through games played through March 7. Vaughn has long been considered the top hitter in the 2019 draft class, but scouts are now saying that he is playing his way into being a viable candidate for the No. 1 overall pick, even if Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman is still the top prospect in the class.

 

While there’s still plenty of time for the No. 1 pick debate to pan out for itself, there’s also a legitimate shot that Vaughn will become the highest-drafted college first baseman of all time. If Vaughn goes first overall, he will be.

 

Only three college first basemen have been selected as high as No. 2 or No. 3, and each was taken in the 1980s or 1990s. Mississippi State's Will Clark was taken No. 2 by the Giants in 1985, Stanford's David McCarty was taken No. 3 by the Twins in 1991 and San Diego State's Travis Lee was taken No. 2 overall by the Twins in 1996.

 

 

While the first base profile is generally a difficult one for players to overcome, when teams select a player of that demographic at the top of the draft, they tend to work out well.

 

There have been 14 college first basemen drafted among the top-10 picks, including, most recently, Brendan McKay (who was also drafted as a lefthanded pitcher) and Pavin Smith in 2017. Putting those two aside, as they are still at the beginning of their professional career, the success rate among this group is impressive.

 

Here’s how the group looks statistically, ranked by Fangraphs WAR.

 

(insert graph)

 

ight of the 12 players went on to be above-average hitters at the major league level, while three of the four who are below-average fall in the 90-100 wRC+ range. Just two players of the group played fewer than 250 major league games and one of the two—Dan Thomas—showed plenty of offensive promise before his career was derailed because of addiction issues and a refusal to play baseball on Sabbath days.

 

Tim Wallach was a college first baseman who played third base almost exclusively in pro ball. Matt LaPorta was a college first baseman who was immediately moved to the outfield in pro ball. Pat Burrell, who played third base in college and primarily left field in pro ball, is not included, although the Phillies did consider moving him to first base when they drafted him.

 

So, generally speaking, college first basemen taken among the top 10 picks go on to produce at the big league level. The group as a whole combined to average just over 3.0 WAR per season when WAR totals were prorated for the total number of games played.

 

But how good a hitter do you have to be to be selected among the elite players of any given draft year? And, more importantly in the case of Vaughn, how good do you have to be to be taken among the top three picks of the draft, where Vaughn is currently projected to go? How good do you have to be to go among the elite of the elite in any given year?

 

Thanks to Baseball Cube, it’s fairly easy to figure that out. Below are the college statistics for the three players selected third or higher, with Vaughn’s career stats through games on March 7 also included as a comparison.

 

(insert another graph)

 

Vaughn fits well statistically with this group, although admittedly it’s hard to compare hitters over vastly different college eras and different hitting environments.

 

While Vaughn fits in well on a statistical basis, he does stand out for his size. As J.J. Cooper noted in our most recent issue of the Baseball America magazine, Vaughn’s 5-foot-11 listed height is very short for a first baseman—particularly a righthanded hitter. Each of the players above are at least 6-foot-2, while there have been just four, righthanded-hitting, righthanded-throwing first basemen under 6-foot to play more than 20 games in the integration era beginning in 1947.

 

Vaughn will be challenged this weekend against No. 10 Louisiana State in perhaps his toughest matchup this season, but he's opened plenty of eyes already and has put himself in a position to potentially make history in the draft. He would also be the first player to win back-to-back Golden Spikes Awards.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

Holy hell, Daniel Espino looks so, so good.

Posted
Those two pitches were nowhere near the strike zone. His first 10 pitches we're probably balls if he were facing batters with any sort of plate discipline.
Posted
Those two pitches were nowhere near the strike zone. His first 10 pitches we're probably balls if he were facing batters with any sort of plate discipline.

 

10 straight balls? Future bust.

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