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Statcast Introduces New Metrics: Catch Probability and Hit Probability

TwistedLogic

By TwistedLogic
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TwistedLogic Cooperstown

TwistedLogic

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Statcast introduces Catch Probability for 2017

By Mike Petriello, MLB.com Columnist

 

Perhaps more than any other area of baseball, measuring outfield defense has always been made more difficult simply because perception, in so many cases, is not reality. Which outfielder made the better play -- the one who made a flying grab to catch the ball, or the one who made the exact same play look easy because he was faster or took a better route?

 

You know which one of those plays made it onto nightly highlight reels for the last three decades, and for so much of that time, it was the eye test that ruled the day. But in the back of your mind, you always knew that there's no such thing as style points when grading defense. You knew that sometimes the play that didn't look like anything special was actually extremely special.

Of course, sometimes the plays that look great are exactly that, but we'll get to that in a second. Today, we're going to take what we hope is a step forward by introducing one of several new Statcast™ metrics we'll roll out in 2017: Catch Probability. (See also: Hit Probability.) It's a simple number that can be applied to every tracked batted ball to the outfield, and it's on a scale of 0-100 percent, where a zero percent Catch Probability is "that ball is never, ever caught" and a 100 percent Catch Probability is "caught by everyone, always."

 

Read the Rest: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/217802340/statcast-introduces-catch-probability-for-2017/

 

Statcast introduces Hit Probability for 2017

By Mike Petriello, MLB.com Columnist

 

If the 2016 title-winning Cubs taught us anything, it's that untangling pitching skill from defensive talent is more difficult than ever. Did Chicago have a best-in-baseball 3.15 ERA because starters like Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks were so talented and avoided hard contact? Or because a defense led by Jason Heyward, Addison Russell and Javier Baez was historically good and simply converted those balls into outs better than anyone?

 

The answer, then and now, was likely "both." We know that defense functions as a unit that includes both pitcher and fielders, and we know that in order to put up the lowest Batting Average on Balls in Play in more than three decades, as the Cubs did with their .255 mark, both pitchers and fielders have to be doing something right. But how much of each?

Today, let's take a step towards trying to answer that question, by introducing one of our new Statcast™ metrics for 2017: Hit Probability. (See also: Catch Probability.) While there's a lot of complicated math that goes into it, it attempts to answer a very simple question: Based on the exit velocity and launch angle of the batted ball, how likely was the ball to land for a hit? That's trying to get to the heart of what a pitcher and hitter control while attempting to take out the effects of defense and ballpark.

 

Read the Rest: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/217705412/statcast-introduces-hit-probability-for-2017/

 

TwistedLogic Cooperstown

TwistedLogic

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For anyone wondering how this information can be accessed:

 

Where can I get it?

 

By Opening Day, 2015-16 Catch Probability numbers for all tracked outfield batted balls will be added to BaseballSavant.com searches, which will also allow custom leaderboards to be created. Once the new season starts, you'll be able to see Catch Probability in near-real time on BaseballSavant, MLB Gameday and selected broadcasts on MLB Network and other outlets.

 

Beat me by seconds.

 

Really? I've had these pages open on my iPad for a day or two now, I was going to post it last night but I fell asleep lol.

P2F Toronto Blue Jays

P2F

Old-Timey Member
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Really? I've had these pages open on my iPad for a day or two now, I was going to post it last night but I fell asleep lol.

 

Yeah, Fangraphs just posted an article about this, and it links to both of those articles.

Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
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Ah, didn't know about the FanGraphs thing. Gonna check that out now.

 

I guess this means Reddit > FanGraphs confirmed.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/statcast-and-the-future-of-war/

 

I'm not sure why Dave is being all wishy washy. Why is it necessary to decide how much context to remove? Why can't you make more than one version of WAR? So maybe context free, 50% context and current WAR.

 

I love how he writes like there's some great dilemma. It's a f***ing stat. You can have more than one.

Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
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That's what I thought while reading it. I want to know both things, not just one.

 

His writing annoys the s*** out of me.

TwistedLogic Cooperstown

TwistedLogic

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His writing annoys the s*** out of me.

 

I don't like his writing either. His s***** piece where he rates all the good and bad offseason moves really irritated me. How do you call the Red Sox trade for Thornburg a bad move? Apparently because they signed Mitch Moreland at some point afterwards. Cameron sucks.

Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

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I don't like his writing either. His s***** piece where he rates all the good and bad offseason moves really irritated me. How do you call the Red Sox trade for Thornburg a bad move? Apparently because they signed Mitch Moreland at some point afterwards. Cameron sucks.

 

I'd be more ok with him if he was humble but he's basically a rich man's Bret Sayre.

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
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I wish it was easier to gather all the data ourselves for our own databases, which is something I want to play around with. The only way I know of is to get the pitchfx data from the MLB Gameday xml files, and they try to match it with the batted ball info for things like exit velocity from baseballsavant. Anyone know of a better way?
Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I wish it was easier to gather all the data ourselves for our own databases, which is something I want to play around with. The only way I know of is to get the pitchfx data from the MLB Gameday xml files, and they try to match it with the batted ball info for things like exit velocity from baseballsavant. Anyone know of a better way?

 

You can't, you can only do it as BS releases the info.

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I wish it was easier to gather all the data ourselves for our own databases, which is something I want to play around with. The only way I know of is to get the pitchfx data from the MLB Gameday xml files, and they try to match it with the batted ball info for things like exit velocity from baseballsavant. Anyone know of a better way?

 

Actually, you might just be able to use BS. I thought it wasn't recording all the pitches, but I think I misunderstood how their pitch id's are generated.

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
You can't, you can only do it as BS releases the info.

 

I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I want to create my own database that I can have fun exploring, and want to know the best source of populating it.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I want to create my own database that I can have fun exploring, and want to know the best source of populating it.

 

Well then... I'm sorry!

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The Minor League Bloggers Facebook group had this 2 days ago.

 

Whoa... this has been posted many times on this forum, bro.

 

Again Kev...

 

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img911/724/K02O1z.gif

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