Hutch and FIP

[metafour]

Wow, metafour is an awful poster.

 

I remember my first time reading Moneyball....

[Atothe]

It's weird how overlooked IP gets, it might be one of the more important stats.

 

why is it more important then the other stats? I think good results always leads to more innings pitched so really its irrelevant in this conservation

[saskjayfan]

For the last time, xFIP/FIP/SIERA are not "indicators", they are not predictive. They are an objective measure of performance.

 

 

 

Quote me.

 

 

 

Having a basic level of awareness when it comes to player evaluation is not "so smart". You continually show that you don't really understand anything in this regard.

 

 

 

How is looking at a guy's ERA and making snap judgments thinking outside the box? That's as in the box as you can get, along with everything else you post.

 

Did you really need to say xFIP/FIP/SIERRA are objective measure of performance after I said you believe they are infallible. Firstly, they all differ so which one is the most objective..lol. You keep putting words in my mouth. Where did I make a snap judgement and point to ERA? I said FIP doesn't distinguish between the type of contact and xfip doesn't take into account the number of line drives a pitcher gives up.

 

I then went through the macro statistics outlining how much more damaging line drive hits are relative to ground balls and flyballs. I then compared Hutch and Sanchez to show that Hutch had given up far more line drives and far more hard hit balls than Sanchez. I indicated you believe this to be random bad luck. I disagree with that supposition. I believe that when hutch and Sanchez both throw a pitch that lands in the heart of the plate that Sanchez' is harder to hit. He throws harder, and his ball movement takes the ball off the barrel of the bat. I've heard the mlb experts who were former pitchers talk about Sanchez and articulate this point. I witnessed Martin call 40 straight fastballs, because Sanchez on the night had great movement and was keeping the ball in the zone. Even with players knowing what was coming they weren't hitting it. Why would Martin call the game this way if Sanchez was simply getting "LUCKY" as you like to point out.

 

Sanchez has only struck out 5.9 batter per 9 yet even with that low strike out rate has only given up 7.4 hits per 9. Hutch has given up 10.8 hits per 9 despite the fact that he has struck out 7.9 batters per 9. You're saying fip is objective and infallible. Hutch is the most unlucky man alive. You think Sanchez is the luckiest man alive and should just quit baseball and start buying lottery tickets because he'd win for sure. I dispute this. I don't think Hutch has been better than Sanchez because his FIP is lower. I am not suggesting he is better because his ERA is lower. So quit spouting off that I'm using ERA to judge the two for fawk sakes..lol

[IronLadle]

why is it more important then the other stats? I think good results always leads to more innings pitched so really its irrelevant in this conservation

 

Hutch has a better FIP and Sierra than both Buehrle and Dickey, yet Hutch has easily been outperformed by both pitchers.

 

Hutch has only thrown 118 Innings and Buehrle and Dickey close to a 150 each, there is only about 30 - 40 pitchers each year who pitch over 200 innings. It just seems weird that these advanced stats can't accurately evaluate performance between the 3 - when it's pretty simple.

[Boxcar]

So quit spouting off that I'm using ERA to judge the two for fawk sakes..lol

 

And after all that gibberish, this is still exactly what you're doing. But what do I know, I'm not 100 so my opinion on anything is invalid.

[Atothe]

Hutch has a better FIP and Sierra than both Buehrle and Dickey, yet Hutch has easily been outperformed by both pitchers.

 

Hutch has only thrown 118 Innings and Buehrle and Dickey close to a 150 each, there is only about 30 - 40 pitchers each year who pitch over 200 innings. It just seems weird that these advanced stats can't accurately evaluate performance between the 3 - when it's pretty simple.

 

Playing defense and shutting down the run game are two things Dickey and Buehrle excel at. Hutch does neither well

[BTS]

Hector Santiago is an ace. Discuss.

[IronLadle]

Playing defense and shutting down the run game are two things Dickey and Buehrle excel at. Hutch does neither well

 

Martin throws out about 40% and I'm sure Dickey leads the team in wild pitches and passed balls. Shutting the running game doesn't account for why Buehrle and Dickey have both pitched 20 more innings in the same amount of starts.

[GD]

Hector Santiago is an ace. Discuss.

 

Jaysblue just dealt a first for him in FC so he must be.

[BTS]

Martin throws out about 40% and I'm sure Dickey leads the team in wild pitches and passed balls. Shutting the running game doesn't account for why Buehrle and Dickey have both pitched 20 more innings in the same amount of starts.

 

He was referring to the fact that they're two of the best defensive pitchers in the game, and this enables them to prevent runs more effectively than their DIPS suggests that they should. This helps them pitch deeper into games.

[BTS]

Jaysblue just dealt a first for him in FC so he must be.

 

Oh wow, that's gross.

[GD]

Catching baserunners is a lot to do with pitchers, not just catchers

 

Oh wow, that's gross.

 

I lol'd

[IronLadle]

He was referring to the fact that they're two of the best defensive pitchers in the game, and this enables them to prevent runs more effectively than their DIPS suggests that they should. This helps them pitch deeper into games.

 

Are you saying that the extra 20 innings are coming from the amount of balls in play Dickey and Buehrle field?

[BTS]

Are you saying that the extra 20 innings are coming from the amount of balls in play Dickey and Buehrle field?

 

Is the discussion about what has made Buehrle and Dickey more effective than Hutchison despite Hutch not having worse DIPS? Because the answer to that is that it's a combination of a lot of things. Buehrle is an elite defender (which isn't just fielding balls - he's almost impossible to steal on). Dickey is an elite defender, and throws a knuckleball which tends to help pitchers outperform their DIPS. These skills have allowed them to give up fewer runs, which allows them to go deeper into games. Throw in poor luck for Hutch, and defense that as far as we know is average at best, and it's not a mystery why he's thrown fewer innings.

[Atothe]

Are you saying that the extra 20 innings are coming from the amount of balls in play Dickey and Buehrle field?

 

That number is very arbitrary. You have to have the actual data in order to come up with the specific number of innings

[IronLadle]

Is the discussion about what has made Buehrle and Dickey more effective than Hutchison despite Hutch not having worse DIPS? Because the answer to that is that it's a combination of a lot of things. Buehrle is an elite defender (which isn't just fielding balls - he's almost impossible to steal on). Dickey is an elite defender, and throws a knuckleball which tends to help pitchers outperform their DIPS. These skills have allowed them to give up fewer runs, which allows them to go deeper into games. Throw in poor luck for Hutch, and defense that as far as we know is average at best, and it's not a mystery why he's thrown fewer innings.

 

I agree it's no mystery to why Hutch has pitched less innings, he struggles to get through the lineup 3 times. I'd say the infield defense is above average considering Martin, Donaldson and Tulo have all won a gold glove.

 

You make it sound as if Dickey and Buehrle are making 5 or 6 outs a game with there defense. Like I said before Dickey probably has the most wild pitches and passed balls so I'd hardly say Hutch is the unlucky one.

[BTS]

I agree it's no mystery to why Hutch has pitched less innings, he struggles to get through the lineup 3 times. I'd say the infield defense is above average considering Martin, Donaldson and Tulo have all won a gold glove.

 

You make it sound as if Dickey and Buehrle are making 5 or 6 outs a game with there defense. Like I said before Dickey probably has the most wild pitches and passed balls so I'd hardly say Hutch is the unlucky one.

 

This is incoherent.

[Atothe]

I agree it's no mystery to why Hutch has pitched less innings, he struggles to get through the lineup 3 times. I'd say the infield defense is above average considering Martin, Donaldson and Tulo have all won a gold glove.

 

You make it sound as if Dickey and Buehrle are making 5 or 6 outs a game with there defense. Like I said before Dickey probably has the most wild pitches and passed balls so I'd hardly say Hutch is the unlucky one.

 

None of those points relate to each other. What are you trying to say?

[IronLadle]

None of those points relate to each other. What are you trying to say?

 

I didn't think it was that hard to understand, but you can't attribute poor defense because all three pitch for the same team - so the defence is the same for everyone. Claiming both Dickey and Buehrle are elite defenders is also a stretch considering they're pitchers and don't field many balls.

[BTS]

Hutch is a good defender. He was a SS in high school.

 

Maybe in terms of fielding, but shutting down the running game is a huge part of pitcher defense, and he's probably below average at that.

[Atothe]

Hutch is a good defender. He was a SS in high school.

 

So because he's athletic he's a good fielder? In that case Reyes would be a perennial bible fielding award contender. No one said he's bad, I just don't think he's anywhere as good as Dickey and Buehrle are.

[GD]

-4 DRS in 360 IP

[WillyWonka]

Hutch is a good defender. He was a SS in high school.

 

Lol

[IronLadle]

So because he's athletic he's a good fielder? In that case Reyes would be a perennial bible fielding award contender. No one said he's bad, I just don't think he's anywhere as good as Dickey and Buehrle are.

 

Reyes would field well enough for a pitcher

[metafour]

Sanchez has been missing his spots big time all year and all the "I judge with ma eyes" crowd loves him.

 

 

Sanchez can get away with it, because he's really really lucky....

 

 

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J/K, he can get away with it because the primary fastball comparison is as follows:

 

 

Sanchez:

95.32 mph, -9.51 inches horizontal movement (in towards RHB)

.233 BAA, .331 SLG, 0.098 ISO, .252 BABIP

 

Hutchison:

93.15 mph, -4.40 inches horizontal movement (in towards RHB)

.280 BAA, .466 SLG, .0.186 ISO, .329 BABIP

 

 

 

 

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SanchezApr22K.gif

[WillyWonka]

Sanchez can get away with it, because he's really really lucky....

 

 

...

...

...

...

...

 

J/K, he can get away with it because the primary fastball comparison is as follows:

 

 

Sanchez:

95.32 mph, -9.51 inches horizontal movement (in towards RHB)

.233 BAA, .331 SLG, 0.098 ISO, .252 BABIP

 

Hutchison:

93.15 mph, -4.40 inches horizontal movement (in towards RHB)

.280 BAA, .466 SLG, .0.186 ISO, .329 BABIP

 

 

 

 

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SanchezApr22K.gif

 

The numbers that you just gave support the argument that Sanchez has been lucky relative to Hutchison (especially that BABIP differential), so we can expect Hutchison's ERA to improve vs. Sanchez's in the future. Despite this magical fastball, Hutchison still has more K/9 and fewer BB/9.

[metafour]

The numbers that you just gave support the argument that Sanchez has been lucky relative to Hutchison (especially that BABIP differential), so we can expect Hutchison's ERA to improve vs. Sanchez's in the future. Despite this magical fastball, Hutchison still has more K/9 and fewer BB/9.

 

What my numbers support is the fact that Sanchez has a significantly better fastball, hence why for him "missing his spots" is nowhere near as detrimental as it would be to someone like Hutchison.

 

Its like having a 10-inch dick. Even if you have no idea WTF you're doing, you'll still impress.

[WillyWonka]

What my numbers support is the fact that Sanchez has a significantly better fastball, hence why for him "missing his spots" is nowhere near as detrimental as it would be to someone like Hutchison.

 

Its like having a 10-inch dick. Even if you have no idea WTF you're doing, you'll still impress.

 

Even if a batter is impressed by the fastball, it still has a decent chance of landing in play for a hit. A lot of Hutch's balls have been falling into play for hits, making him look worse than he really is. Sanchez's fastball hasn't exactly been striking out a lot of batters (5.9K/9 isn't amazing). Having an impressive dick helps, but you still need to know how to use it.

[IronLadle]

Even if a batter is impressed by the fastball, it still has a decent chance of landing in play for a hit. A lot of Hutch's balls have been falling into play for hits, making him look worse than he really is. Sanchez's fastball hasn't exactly been striking out a lot of batters (5.9K/9 isn't amazing). Having an impressive dick helps, but you still need to know how to use it.

 

Yeah but Sanchez has a ground ball rate over 50% where as Hutch has a ground ball rate under 40%. Sanchez will get more double plays and give up less extra base hits. You don't have to strike out everyone to be effective, inducing weak contact works just as well and keeps your pitch count down.

[WillyWonka]

Yeah but Sanchez has a ground ball rate over 50% where as Hutch has a ground ball rate under 40%. Sanchez will get more double plays and give up less extra base hits. You don't have to strike out everyone to be effective, inducing weak contact works just as well and keeps your pitch count down.

 

Ya but he walks so many batters that it negates the movement/velocity. Plus ground ball pitchers tend to get rocked hard when they miss up because they lead to line drives.....flyball pitchers get popups. At any rate, I'm not arguing that Hutch is more talented than Sanchez, I'm arguing that Hutch has been relatively unlucky while Sanchez has been relatively lucky. Hutch has been getting results below his capabilities while Sanchez has had a few breaks.