A different take on the old Carter/Alomar trade

[TilsonBritoFan]

I'm posting this because I have a different point of view than your average Blue Jays fan in regards to the trade, yet after reading this board for a while, I think (hope) some of you will agree with me.

 

Unlike most who feel Gillick made a steal on this deal, I feel it wasn't the slam dunk we're lead to believe. And I think this is important since many Jays fans point to that trade as the turning point of this organization.

 

Obviously I love Roberto Alomar, he was one of my heroes growing up and an unbelievable hall of fame second baseman - a massive part of our world series teams, take nothing away from that. With the benefit of hindsight I obviously wouldn't undo the deal based on what ended up happening next (winning in 92/93). However I think if that same deal was made tomorrow, in this day and age with our advanced stats, this board would not be in favour of the deal.

 

Remember we traded our own a hall of fame caliber first baseman and all around class act McGriff (its a crime the Crime Dog isn't in the hall) as well as Fernandez, and received Joe Carter, easily the most over-rated Blue Jay of all time. (god bless him for 93' vs Mitch but he really wasn't a good hitter)

 

Most people, including myself when it happened saw it as Alomar for Fernandez and McGriff for Carter. As a boy at the time, I was all about HR and RBI's and looking at those stats thought Carter was pretty much as good as McGriff. Knowing what I know today, I am embarrassed to have thought that. Getting Alomar for Fernandez worked out great for us as Fernandez slipped a bit in San Diego and Alomar took off with us. But McGriff for Carter was brutal in every way imaginable.

 

At the time Fernandez had a better resume than Alomar and was only 28 years old. Fernandez had won 4 straight gold gloves from 86' to 89' and was essentially our "Alomar" at that time - a top of the order hitter, best glove at his position, plus speed (he averaged 4.6 WAR his last 5 seasons with us, made 6 All-Star games, 5 of them as a Blue Jay)

 

Whether Gillick really thought Alomar would turn into a superstar 2B no one really knows, but I think I recall reading somewhere his original target in the deal was Carter for McGriff but San Diego wanted to include Alomar for Fernandez.

 

McGriff for Carter? Thats a bad joke. We traded a guy with a career OPS just over .900 at the time for a guy with a career OPS at the time somewhere around .750.

 

The reason the Jays won the world series is not because we got Alomar and Carter to put us over the top. That trade wasn't the turning point for the team. We already had a team that had averaged 90.1 wins per season the last 8 years from 1983 - 1990, despite a middling payroll. We won in 92/93 because they opened the purse strings and started to spend to fill holes and put us over the top.

 

I was surprised to learn that in 1990 the Jays had a payroll of $18 million, 12th in a 26 team league. By 1991 they spent $31 million (9th in the league) and 1992 rocketed up to #1 with a $49 million payroll.

 

I think if we kept McGriff/Fernandez and then basically tripled our payroll over the next 2 seasons as they ended up doing, we could have still won the 2 world series and maybe even more. But who knows. Don't get me wrong, now that we know how it all turned out, I wouldn't go back and undo the deal. But knowing what we do know, if that deal was made today, we would be FREAKING on this board with all our advanced stats.

 

I just think that Gillick gets too much credit for this deal. I think he accidentally stumbled across Alomar, and this deal would have been a nightmare for us if Alomar hadn't worked out as well as he did.

[LTR]

^CHP

 

cf

[TilsonBritoFan]

what does CHP mean?

[awsomest]

It was a bad trade that worked out, it happens just look at KC Doesn't matter that the went to game 7 of the world series and tampa moved meyers it was still stupid.

[King]

Whos Carter?

[IronLadle]

I'm sure having Olerud in waiting played a part as well

[TilsonBritoFan]

I'm sure having Olerud in waiting played a part as well

 

One of Olerud/McGriff could have DH'd. We had a hole at DH.

[IronLadle]

We signed Winfield though

[TilsonBritoFan]

We signed Winfield though

 

 

The trade was made after the 1990 season. We signed Winfield for 1992, because we needed a DH - a big hole we had in the 1991 season (Rance Mulliniks!!!). We wouldn't have needed Winfield if we had both McGriff/Olerud. That money could have spent elsewhere.

[Daniel Labude]

I would do that trade 100 times out of 100.

[GD]

I probably would've freaked the f*** out.

 

If I'd been alive and s***

[Atothe]

I probably would've freaked the f*** out.

 

If I'd been alive and s***

 

Assuming you knew s*** all about advance stats

[Ehjays]

So .....whats your take on the Babe Ruth trade??

[TheHurl]

So .....whats your take on the Babe Ruth trade??

 

well Ruth is gone now...and that $100K is now worth $1.5M. Easy win for the Red Sox

[GD]

Assuming you knew s*** all about advance stats

 

wat

[Dick_Pole]

Alomar was the cheapest player with the most control of the four. Basically the 1990 version of Josh Donaldson. Even if Encarnacion had to go the other way in that deal, I think the consensus would be that was the right move.

 

Also, Alomar had already averaged close to 4 WAR in three seasons with SD by the age of 22. Chances are things would have worked out. He would have had to unexpectedly regress coming up to an age where his contemporaries are just making their MLB debuts.

[TheHurl]

McGriff and Fernandez both had two years of control. Alomar had 3 and Carter 1. Guarantee people would have s***.

[RealAccountant]

When the mets win the world series in a few years will they be reviewing the Dickey trade?

[RealAccountant]

Here is one for horrible trades. A prime Shannon Stewart who should have been moved for prospects traded for Bobby Kielty

[TilsonBritoFan]

Alomar was the cheapest player with the most control of the four. Basically the 1990 version of Josh Donaldson. Even if Encarnacion had to go the other way in that deal, I think the consensus would be that was the right move.

 

Also, Alomar had already averaged close to 4 WAR in three seasons with SD by the age of 22. Chances are things would have worked out. He would have had to unexpectedly regress coming up to an age where his contemporaries are just making their MLB debuts.

 

Alomar was no more the equivalent of Josh Donaldson than Fernandez was.

 

Fernandez was probably 2nd or 3rd best SS in the AL at 28 was more like the value of Desmond if he still had 2 years control. Alomar maybe Dee Gordon, Kolten Wong or Mookie Betts (or Brett Lawrie before this year?)

 

And Joe Carter was basically Chris Carter or Mark Trumbo.

 

McGriff was basically Goldschmidt. 2 time HR champ, young, stud.

 

If u want to compare to today it would be kinda like us trading Goldschmidt + a younger Desmond for Betts and Chris Carter. Then Betts goes on to a HOF career.

 

Anyone got a better comparison?

[IronLadle]

1992 War for each player:

 

Fernandez: 1.5

McGriff: 5.5

Carter: 2.9

Alomar : 6.1

 

It was pretty even

[TilsonBritoFan]

1992 War for each player:

 

Fernandez: 1.5

McGriff: 5.5

Carter: 2.9

Alomar : 6.1

 

It was pretty even

 

You are looking at their war 2 years after the deal?

 

You're missing the point. You should be looking at pre trade values. Alomar ended up a HOF player. The deal worked out well for us in the end. But at the time, using today's advanced stats, we got raped. Gillick should have got more for Tony & Fred.

[Daniel Labude]

You are looking at their war 2 years after the deal?

 

You're missing the point. You should be looking at pre trade values. Alomar ended up a HOF player. The deal worked out well for us in the end. But at the time, using today's advanced stats, we got raped. Gillick should have got more for Tony & Fred.

 

Your under the assumption the deal was made to make us better the second after it went through. Never assume why a deal is made.

[TilsonBritoFan]

Your under the assumption the deal was made to make us better the second after it went through. Never assume why a deal is made.

 

You aren't getting it.

[IronLadle]

You are looking at their war 2 years after the deal?

 

You're missing the point. You should be looking at pre trade values. Alomar ended up a HOF player. The deal worked out well for us in the end. But at the time, using today's advanced stats, we got raped. Gillick should have got more for Tony & Fred.

 

I think the point is, there is more to player evaluation than just advanced stats.