Who is the one player you think the jays will regret trading away the most this year?

[Nafro]

That's a team stat.

 

You can pitch 9 shutout innings and not get a win...it's the other stats that show that you still pitched an excellent game.

 

You can pitch 5 innings, give up 10 runs and still get the win if your team scored more than 10 and held on to the lead for the remainder of the game. But the win doesn't show that your pitcher was crap.

 

Okay that's a fair statement. My point is I think Happ is going to have a good year in Seattle, both in wins and in peripheral pitching statistics. It was easier to give a projected amount of wins in a quick post.

[Nafro]

Clearly I was referring to pitcher Wins and not team wins.

 

Do pitcher wins not count towards teams wins?

[Nafro]

Just give what you think his WAR will be then.

 

I think his WAR will be 1.6-1.8. His Steamer, Fans, and Zips predicts 1.2, 1.2 and 0.7, respectively.

[Spanky99]

Alomar signed as a FA with Baltimore.

 

Yeah, misremembered...

[BTS]

At some point 5+ years ago it became far less annoying to mention pitcher wins than to point out that it's dumn to mention pitcher wins.

[CrackerJack]

Dude said he thinks Happ can be a 15 game winner. While most know the deal about individual pitcher wins, i'm curious what percentage of 15 game winners (historically) have actually been below average pitchers that year? (Probably not very many.)

[BTS]

Shaddup

 

make me, ya bike!

[Larphraulen]

Picking up Estrada.

 

While I think Happ will do well in Seattle (mid/high-3 era), that's a trade worth doing for the cost, control and potential of Saunders.

[Deadpool]

Since the beginning of baseball history there have been 430 below average (by ERA) 15 game winners, or 12.25% of 15 game winners.

Since the beginning of baseball history there have been 812 below average (by FIP) 15 game winners, or 23.13% of 15 game winners.

Since 2002 there have been 59 below average (by xFIP) 15 game winners, or 18.67% of 15 game winners.

I should specify that this is 15 or more wins, not exactly 15.

 

Thanks, infobot!

[Nafro]

I can't/won't argue numbers like that. I gave a prediction for WAR, time will tell. If I were a betting man I would bet on fans/zips/steamer projections over my own. Lol, you have made your point regarding pitcher wins.

[Spanky99]

Adam "f***EN" Lind!

[Zaun of the Dead]

lawrie or nolin

[jays76]

He's already filling the lefty with back issues void.

 

Lol nice one.

[jays76]

I think the hope is Smoak provides similar value to Lind (better on defense/upside with the bat) and Estrada becomes a useful piece as a fifth starter/long man to replace Happ.

 

I don't think those are unreasonable projections, although a lot will depend on what Smoak does.

 

Yup Smoak & Estrada are real crapshoots, they could both be serviceable or absolute junk. It will be interesting to see how they perform this year, plus how long Lind lasts as an everyday player in Milwaukee and the numbers he puts up.