2015 MLB / MiLB Predictions Thread

[TwistedLogic]

I've noticed that a lot of people in the baseball world like to make predictions for the upcoming season each year, and they like to look back and see how they did a year later. I think this can be a fun little activity of our own, where we can make our own annual predictions thread and see how everyone did when the year is done. Your predictions can be as bold and stupid as you want them to be (I once predicted that Jacob Anderson would have a .400 BA season in the MLB some day) or boring and obvious (the Padres won't make the post season in 2015), or focused on a specific facet of the game (predicting the end of season standings; predicting where certain prospects will end up)

 

2014 Predictions:

 

Looking back on the last year, I was correct in predicting that Ubaldo Jimenez would be an atrocious signing, that Adam Lind was a better player than Billy Butler going forward, that the Jays should have pursued Headley and McCarthy as hard as they could during trade season, and that as long as the Jays were unable to sign Tanaka or Garza, they were better served going into the season with no new starting pitchers, so that young guys like Stroman and Hutchison got a chance to show how good they were.

 

Conversely, I struck out hideously in predicting that Ervin Santana would be as bad as Jimenez, that Rasmus was a perfect extension candidate, and that Infante was as close to a sure thing in the free agent market as you could find.

 

2015 Predictions:

 

For the upcoming season, I'm simply going to stick to the predictions I've already made in various threads over the past few weeks.

 

* The Rays won't win more than 77 games.

* Marcus Stroman will be a better pitcher in 2015 than he was in 2014.

* Rowdy Tellez will be a better prospect at this time next year than Mitch Nay.

* Predicting the Top 15 prospects for 2016: http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/4372-Basebal-Pprospectus-Top-101-prospects-2015?p=512352#post512352

* Sleepers, Busts and Breakouts: http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/261-Blue-Jays-prospects-Sleeper-bust-and-new-legit-guy?p=512798&viewfull=1#post512798

 

Bold long-term prediction: Jeff Hoffman and Max Pentecost will be the two absolute best players to come out of the first round in the 2014 First Year Player Draft.

[SAAviour]

Tolleson hits .321 playing 140 games.

Norris gets tommy john.

Stroman/hutch/Sanchez form the most desired 1-2-3 in all of baseball. ( for about 1.5 mil combined)

Jays make the playoffs.

Reyes gets injured.

Arod gets cut by Yankees.

Padres suck and finish below .500.

Detroit crashes and burns.

Bryce Harper wins the MVP turning into an absolute beast.

[GD]

Jacob Anderson is the #1 prospect in baseball by the end of the season- oh wait, you said bold, not obvious.

 

Orioles lose 85+

Twins challenge for AL Central

 

I'll do more tomorrow idk

[Orgfiller]

Tolleson hits .321 playing 140 games.

Norris gets tommy john.

Stroman/hutch/Sanchez form the most desired 1-2-3 in all of baseball. ( for about 1.5 mil combined)

Jays make the playoffs.

Reyes gets injured.

Arod gets cut by Yankees.

Padres suck and finish below .500.

Detroit crashes and burns.

Bryce Harper wins the MVP turning into an absolute beast.

 

Really went out on a limb there.

[SAAviour]

Really went out on a limb there.

 

But spankbank said I was all wrong.

[TheHurl]

Blue Jays related

Ryan Goins gets over 200 PA's and is playing in September

The Jays will trade for one or both of Chase Utley and Cliff Lee...but Chase blocks the deal.

Stroman starts the All Star game

 

Overall

Alex Cobb comes second to King Felix in AL Cy voting...Tyson Ross 2nd to Kershaw in the NL

MLB suspends a player for the entire season for an off field incident

Cubs have the best record in baseball on June 15th, but don't make the playoffs.

Royals, White Sox, Tigers are among the most disappointing in baseball and the Indians walk away with the Central.

[StroShow]

Kluber repeats/Tribe have best pitching staff of 2015

Mookie becomes a top 3 CF

Syndergaard, Glasnow, Hunter Harvey undergo tommy john surgery

Saunders has an Alex Gordon ascent

O's finish last in the division

Abreu underachieves, has a 120 wRC+

Tulo plays 140+ games

Osuna becomes a consensus top 30 prospect

[TwistedLogic]

Hutch, Stroman, and Estrada combine for 8 WAR.

 

I like this one. I'm gonna raise you one here and say that while Estrada will post a positive WAR, Hutch (3-4) and Stroman (4-5) will combine for 8 WAR on their own.

 

Tolleson hits .321 playing 140 games.

Norris gets tommy john.

Stroman/hutch/Sanchez form the most desired 1-2-3 in all of baseball. ( for about 1.5 mil combined)

Jays make the playoffs.

Reyes gets injured.

Arod gets cut by Yankees.

Padres suck and finish below .500.

Detroit crashes and burns.

Bryce Harper wins the MVP turning into an absolute beast.

 

While wildly unlikely to begin with, I think it is a bit more realistic to assume that Norris is among the 1-2-3 and Sanchez is the one that gets Tommy John. At least that's how I'd put it.

[Angrioter]

Spanky quit to the alcohol, JFaS got a cute girlfriend and I quit hookers and goats

[Jimcanuck]

jfas got a cute girlfriend

 

lmao

[Atothe]

Hutch, Stroman, and Estrada combine for 8 WAR.

 

What a stretch there buddy, does that mean Estrada with 1.5 war?

[Deadpool]

What a stretch there buddy, does that mean Estrada with 1.5 war?

 

-6.0

[Deadpool]

He's 5 years late on that one.

 

Build her from spare parts, or order her directly from the factory in Japan?

[AdamGreenwood]

He's 5 years late on that one.

 

You're saying she was cute five years ago, but age took it's toll? Ouch.

[Boxcar]

Build her from spare parts, or order her directly from the factory in Japan?

 

http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/archer/images/7/74/VirtualGirlfriend.png/revision/latest?cb=20110405023448

[KingKat]

Did you guys know that Maicer Izturis was the worst player in baseball in 2013 (and actually by a fair margin)?

 

 

Yes.

[HERPDERP]

2015 Predictions

 

-The Jays will have 2 pitchers with +15 wins (Hutch & Stroman)

-Sanchez will get demoted from the closer role

-Bautista will not hit more than 30 HR, but he will have an .OBP around 370-400

-Donaldson will hit 40 bombs

-The Jays infield will have the most infield errors in the AL (did you know that despite Donaldson being known as a top fielder, he had the 3rd most errors in the majors?)

-Pompey won't hit better than .250 and will end up in a platoon

[Angrioter]

He's 5 years late on that one.

 

Pic please.

[TheHurl]

My MiLB predictions.

Jays related

 

Osuna has a career best 44 innings pitched

Dwight Smith makes a mid season list

One or more of the 2014 Draftees are traded at the deadline

 

Non-Jays

Buxton rebounds huge and re-establishes himself as Trout Lite

Giolito has another surgery

Kyle Schwarber threatens Tim Laudner's Southern League HR record. They keep him in AA to continue to work on his catching

Clint Coulter moves into almost all mid-season lists...but they all still refuse to list him at catcher.

Miguel Sano returns to over 30% K rates, dropping him out of the top 20 on most lists.

[reedjohnsonfan]

2014 Predictions:

 

Looking back on the last year, I was correct in predicting that Ubaldo Jimenez would be an atrocious signing, that Adam Lind was a better player than Billy Butler going forward, that the Jays should have pursued Headley and McCarthy as hard as they could during trade season, and that as long as the Jays were unable to sign Tanaka or Garza, they were better served going into the season with no new starting pitchers, so that young guys like Stroman and Hutchison got a chance to show how good they were.

 

-It's only been 1 year for the Ubaldo signing, probably a bad contract but might not end up being "atrocious"

-Lind had a better year than Butler, but again it's not conclusive he's better

-If they pursued Headley and McCarthy they still would have missed the playoffs, so maybe the shouldn't have

-They didn't sign Tanaka or Garza, doesn't mean Santana wouldn't have helped

[TwistedLogic]

Suuuuuuuuure

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/1921-Omar-Infante-seeking-4-years-40M-Signs-with-KC-Royals?p=160285&viewfull=1#post160285

[KingKat]

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/1921-Omar-Infante-seeking-4-years-40M-Signs-with-KC-Royals?p=160285&viewfull=1#post160285

 

I like the part where I shut Moogy up:

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Moogy http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png

Adding 3-5 more wins may not get them out of 5th place in the division, regardless of Cleveland Steamer's completely meaningless projections.

 

No of course not but should the team just throw up its arms? There are ways to improve the product on the field without making long term sacrifices and that should be the first priority. If you're not in full-on rebuild mode (and clearly this team isn't) then you should at least be making whatever moves you can to round out your roster and improve your chances. Breakthrough seasons can always happen, even in the A.L. East.

[TwistedLogic]

I like the part where I shut Moogy up:

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Moogy http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png

Adding 3-5 more wins may not get them out of 5th place in the division, regardless of Cleveland Steamer's completely meaningless projections.

 

No of course not but should the team just throw up its arms? There are ways to improve the product on the field without making long term sacrifices and that should be the first priority. If you're not in full-on rebuild mode (and clearly this team isn't) then you should at least be making whatever moves you can to round out your roster and improve your chances. Breakthrough seasons can always happen, even in the A.L. East.

 

At this time last year, Moogy was arguing that the Jays fifth starter options (Happ, Hutchison, Stroman, Drabek, Redmond, etc) wouldn't combine for 1 win, and that Izturis posting 1 win was a better bet. Even partly through the past season he was s***ing on Stroman because of his creepy obsession with his "small hands".

 

Also speaking about bad predictions, I suggested that we sign Infante to a 4/40 contract, and as it turns out, I actually got my ass handed to me by Gruber:

 

How about i take that 4/40 that you would agree with and ram it down your throat followed by a nice hot diarrhea chaser. Little f***ing internet tough guy. Infante would be an upgrade at 2B, but $10M per x 4 ?

 

Holy f***.

[GD]

Idk, Infante's BABIP was pretty far below his career mean. I could see him being a useful player, still.

[Angrioter]

Idk, Infante's BABIP was pretty far below his career mean. I could see him being a useful player, still.

 

Infante isn't good anymore.

[jays4life19]

2015 predictions:

- Jays trade for Jeff Samardzija at the trade deadline and win the AL East.

- Mark Buehrle posts a 4.5+ FIP and then retires at the end of the year

- Marcus Stroman makes the allstar team.

- Josh Donaldson puts up less then 4.5 fWAR

- AA get's promoted to president after the Jays get eliminated in the ALCS.

- JfL19 wins the LOD in his first fantasy dynasty.

[GD]

2015 predictions:

 

Jays trade something kind of valuable but not really for Cliff Lee + a bit of cash and he performs pretty well, and throws a nice playoff game or two.

Buehrle continues to be an excellent workhorse, posting just as good numbers as last year.

Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion combine for 17 WAR.

Jose Reyes posts less than 2.5 WAR.

Devon Travis and Dalton Pompey are somewhat mediocre.

We see a Pillar/Pompey/??? OF at some point.

Two relievers break out, but three bust. Bullpen is erratic, sometimes shutdown, sometimes a landmine.

Jays win #1 wildcard and win the elimination game.

Dan Duquette does not end up as president.

Justin Smoak hits 20 home runs.

Miguel Castro and Jeff Hoffman are consensus top-45 prospects by the end of the year. Pentecost struggles with the bat.

Dioner Navarro is still on the roster until June.

Sergio Santos outperforms the majority of the Blue Jays bullpen.

The Rays win more games than the Orioles.

 

that's all I've got for now, lol