Around Baseball 2015

[Spanky99]

Appel is in the Giles trade! Wow.

 

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki 1m1 minute ago

Giles trade is official. Phillies receive RHPs Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz and LHP Brett Oberholtzer.

 

lol... that's flat out trape. *smh*

[Spanky99]

Put Cecil on the market right now.

 

lol... no s***!

[Spanky99]

Wasn''t he getting all these Clemens comps when he was drafted? He got drafted top 10 in 2012 then redrafted first overall in 2013 how could he fall off so badly?

 

Appel isn't junk, imo, they're trolling Boxy from the DDL.

[Spanky99]

Ray Searage should be a contract pitcher fixer and let teams contract him for 1 month for $1m. He's getting underpaid in Pittsburgh. Go free agent Ray!

 

I was his next door neighbour in Richmond BC when he was playing for the Vancouver Canadians - got a team signed ball from him and the team. Nice guy. I remember he told my dad he was hoping to get enough MLB games (service time) to get the pension knowing that he was a fringe MLB pitcher. Glad to see he got a good job and is being revered as a pitcher fixing guru.

 

That's a cool story. (no jokes)

[Atothe]

I am 1000% convinced Ruben Amaro Jr had no part in Cole Hamels negotiations. Macphail doing an excellent job of asset accumulation.

[Frag]

An interesting explanation for the rising price of relievers: Beyond The Box Score - The Ken Giles trade to the Astros shows the marginal value of closers is being re-evaluated

 

 

 

Always gotta keep in mind that counterfactual.

 

Of course it seems like one alternative explanation would be that the intended use of the relievers is changing - perhaps allowing more innings played to increase the value.

 

An alternative explanation - Teams saw the Royals success in the 2015 postseason and want to replicate their bullpen. Of course, there are savvy teams paying boatloads for relief pitchers, but that may play a role.

[Spanky99]

An alternative explanation - Teams saw the Royals success in the 2015 postseason and want to replicate their bullpen. Of course, there are savvy teams paying boatloads for relief pitchers, but that may play a role.

 

Three times through the order.

[Spanky99]

Funny thing is back in the 70's and early 80's, teams had two multiple 3 inning closers all the time, we're going full circle.

[Frag]

Three times through the order.

 

If teams are willing to implement the usage of relief pitchers after the SP went through the order twice, then these moves will make more sense.

[Spanky99]

If teams are willing to implement the usage of relief pitchers after the SP went through the order twice, then these moves will make more sense.

 

Absolutely, I mean it has to be their train of thought, right?

[Thomas Malthus]

It's all about the meta-game!

[Frag]

Absolutely, I mean it has to be their train of thought, right?

 

Speaking of this - Yank the win. It's a stupid stat that forces teams to make stupid decisions.

[Spanky99]

Speaking of this - Yank the win. It's a stupid stat that forces teams to make stupid decisions.

 

MLBPA at its finest bro.

[GD]

I agree with the point you're trying to make. Ken Giles is not as good as people are saying he is. But Putnam is not the comparable to use. He has big error bars and just a weird profile.

 

Giles is comparable to Chad Qualls, the reliever he's replacing.

 

I too agree with the point you're making but you can throw error bars out the damn window with relievers, lol.

[Spanky99]

Advanced stats need to be implemented in Arb, period. Or this change will see many upset SP.

[KingKat]

speaking of this - yank the win and the save. stupid stats that forces teams to make stupid decisions.

 

ftfy

[Spanky99]

ftfy

 

Yes, both need to go.

[Spanky99]

Award pitchers, for how good they are, period.

[Spanky99]

Erasing stats won't work and isn't necessary anyway. People are already starting to grasp RA9 and WPA, you just need to continue encouraging them in that direction.

 

That managers care about getting their players wins and saves is a reflection of them. If you removed those stats they would do other stupid stuff instead.

 

lol... never thought of it that way, yet these guys would need a good few years to posture these thoughts through there heads.

[Spanky99]

Erasing stats won't work and isn't necessary anyway. People are already starting to grasp RA9 and WPA, you just need to continue encouraging them in that direction.

 

That managers care about getting their players wins and saves is a reflection of them. If you removed those stats they would do other stupid stuff instead.

 

Regardless, it falls back on the MLBPA and MLB in the next CBA.

[Thomas Malthus]

Absolutely, I mean it has to be their train of thought, right?

 

Yeah, that's what I was trying to get at at the end to my earlier post. These guys could go from topping out at ~2 WAR to being worth potentially double since once through the order is like 2 innings (34 pitches) on average and they're throwing about 1 inning a game. Or at least that's what it appears with some quick napkin maths.

 

There's probably general equilibrium effects, there always are.

[Spanky99]

You mean measures in response to how some teams are considering using starters for less innings? I don't expect that to be addressed in the CBA.

 

It's possible if it trends that way? I don't know, my two cents, lol.

[Spanky99]

Yeah, that's what I was trying to get at at the end to my earlier post. These guys could go from topping out at ~2 WAR to being worth potentially double since once through the order is like 2 innings (34 pitches) on average and they're throwing about 1 inning a game. Or at least that's what it appears with some quick napkin maths.

 

There's probably general equilibrium effects, there always are.

 

Same.

[Spanky99]

When's the new CBA negotiations? Next year, or 18'?

[Thomas Malthus]

Since we're talking about this kind of thing right now, has this been linked recently?

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_three_man_starting_rotation/

 

Edit: Article is by Bill James outlining how a 3 man rotation would work - with a 5 inning or 80 pitch limit.

Edited December 13, 2015 by Thomas Malthus

[Spanky99]

Since we're talking about this kind of thing right now, has this been linked recently?

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_three_man_starting_rotation/

 

No, it hasn't.

[Spanky99]

Or I can't remember it being so.

[Thomas Malthus]

My concern was raised by somebody in the comments section - sure you're reducing the intensity of each start but you're dramatically reducing the time between games.

 

But such a hard limit on starters doesn't necessarily need to result in dropping two starters, right? And that's where the increased pitch counts for relievers comes in I suppose.

[Spanky99]

Since we're talking about this kind of thing right now, has this been linked recently?

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_three_man_starting_rotation/

 

Hah, like I said full circle besides the top 2 or 3 starters, from the 70's and early 80's.

 

Bill James and Cyborg have brought this up, truly a possibility moving forward, Thomas.

[Spanky99]

My concern was raised by somebody in the comments section - sure you're reducing the intensity of each start but you're dramatically reducing the time between games.

 

But such a hard limit on starters doesn't necessarily need to result in dropping two starters, right? And that's where the increased pitch counts for relievers comes in I suppose.

 

Hence fringe SP's, they'd likely excel ramping it up, just saying. Blanton amongst many others have shown this, hell, even Hendriks did.