Top 3 Reasons for 2014 Failure

[Jimcanuck]

What a stupid post. They were 10th in baseball in positional fWAR (worse if you account for Navarro's framing). Guys like Bautista, Edwin, Melky, Lind, and Reyes delivered this year. They were mostly healthy, and extremely productive as a group. To top it off, the rotation was better than anyone could have expected.

 

Now consider that a quarter of the playing time was wasted on replacement-level talent that was clearly replacement level before the games were played, and I don't know how you can see this season as anything other than an opportunity wasted by incompetence and inattention to detail. There were wins to be added there. Easy wins. They didn't add them.

 

10th in baseball, 5th in AL?

 

where did the bullpen and defense rank

[GD]

I just looked at the all mighty fangraphs and they have Navarro at a 2.0 WAR for the season.

 

Framing

 

whoever is in charge next year should order less injuries..lol

 

Or maybe cover for injuries better?

[saskjayfan]

Navarro is one of the worst pitch-framers in baseball. He's literally bad enough to eliminate virtually all the value his bat provides.

 

that's just voodoo science you speak of..

[BTS]

10th in baseball, 5th in AL?

 

where did the bullpen and defense rank

 

The bullpen is irrelevant to a discussion about things that could have been done to prevent the wasted season. Defense is accounted for in the fWAR. The fact is that you're going to have a hard time ever making the playoffs if you don't understand where wins come from and waste huge amounts of playing time on bad players.

 

And it's not even surprising. Before the season a lot of posters had reservations about the back half of the 25-man this season. The depth was never there, and it's been a problem here for awhile.

[GD]

that's just voodoo science you speak of..

 

I'm sorry, do you not watch Navarro give away strikes every single game? This doesn't even have to be quantified to be relevant.

[BTS]

that's just voodoo science you speak of..

 

Jesus Christ

[Jimcanuck]

Jays hitting 5/15 in AL

 

Jays starting pitching 6/15 in AL

 

Jays relief pitching 12/15 in AL

 

Jays defence 10/15 in AL

 

1. Delabar

2. Rasmus (hitting AND defense)

3. Lawrie (his absence hurt defense)

[saskjayfan]

Framing

 

 

 

Or maybe cover for injuries better?

 

It's difficult to cover for injuries better going into a season. You have organizational depth. If you get significant injuries you do one of 3 things. You bring up your young unproven talent from the minors. You pull experienced guys off the scrap heap or you do what the Yankees do and overpay for players on other teams like the Yankees do. The Jays talent that was close to major league ready wasn't that good. They didn't pick up any Jesse Chavez type guys off the scrap heap. You either have to trade away experience to get young players, or hope the next wave is better. At least Pompey hit a dinger tonight!

[Jimcanuck]

The bullpen is irrelevant to a discussion about things that could have been done to prevent the wasted season. Defense is accounted for in the fWAR. The fact is that you're going to have a hard time ever making the playoffs if you don't understand where wins come from and waste huge amounts of playing time on bad players.

 

And it's not even surprising. Before the season a lot of posters had reservations about the back half of the 25-man this season. The depth was never there, and it's been a problem here for awhile.

 

You aren't understanding the thread then. The thread is top 3 reasons jays failed in 2014.

 

On April 1, the strength of this team was considered to be the offense followed closely by the bullpen.

 

It's clear as f***ing glass why the jays failed to reach the PS

[BTS]

I'm sorry, do you not watch Navarro give away strikes every single game? This doesn't even have to be quantified to be relevant.

 

It's crazy because old-school baseball guys have been talking about pitch framing since the dawn of time. Now that we can actually throw a number on it, those same guys are suddenly afraid of the concept.

 

saskjaysfan has been watching baseball for a long time. If there were no pitch framing data he'd probably pick up on Navarro's poor framing just by watching him receive every night.

[saskjayfan]

Jesus Christ

 

How can you even reference framing without mentioning the statistics for calling a great game.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Jays hitting 5/15 in AL

 

Jays starting pitching 6/15 in AL

 

Jays relief pitching 12/15 in AL

 

Jays defence 10/15 in AL

 

1. Delabar

2. Rasmus (hitting AND defense)

3. Lawrie (his absence hurt defense)

 

I see what you're saying those were big blows, but the things you listed weren't entirely unlikely. The problem with the Jays was that their offseason was unsuccessful. We all knew this in April and despite a couple of hot streaks we now know we were right the whole time.

[Jimcanuck]

It's crazy because old-school baseball guys have been talking about pitch framing since the dawn of time. Now that we can actually throw a number on it, those same guys are suddenly afraid of the concept.

 

saskjaysfan has been watching baseball for a long time. If there were no pitch framing data he'd probably pick up on Navarro's poor framing just by watching him receive every night.

 

Ya, Navarro is the reason Delabar couldn't find the strike zone, McGowan served up meatballs, and Janssen got sick

[BTS]

I give up. Jimcanuck and saskjayfan are two very stupid and stubborn men.

[BlueJayWay]

Here's mine:

 

1. Delabar

2. Rasmus

3. Lawrie

Delabar haha

[Jimcanuck]

I give up. Jimcanuck and saskjayfan are two very stupid and stubborn men.

 

You never used to be angry. Bad year?

[GD]

How can you even reference framing without mentioning the statistics for calling a great game.

 

We literally just got quality framing numbers this year how quickly do you want nerds to work jesus christ

[saskjayfan]

It's crazy because old-school baseball guys have been talking about pitch framing since the dawn of time. Now that we can actually throw a number on it, those same guys are suddenly afraid of the concept.

 

saskjaysfan has been watching baseball for a long time. If there were no pitch framing data he'd probably pick up on Navarro's poor framing just by watching him receive every night.

 

I don't have an issue with idea of framing. I have an issue with the accuracy and margin of error in the number, which is Gigantic. I watch umps call strikes that are 6 inches off the plate where the catcher noticeable moves his glove across his body because the pitcher missed his spot. I see umps call balls on strikes 3 inches inside the plate where the glove doesn't even move and the pitcher hits his spot dead on. Sometimes it's not the framing, it's the s***** ump. Offensive statistics are park adjusted. Are framing statistics ump adjusted? Anyone who has Hernandez behind the plate more often than most is probably going to have s***** framing statistics. Pitchers reputations go into calls. Working with pitchers who hit their spots more consistently than others would effect your framing statistics. All this without even getting into the errors associated with technology. It's voodoo science I say.

[saskjayfan]

We literally just got quality framing numbers this year how quickly do you want nerds to work jesus christ

 

yeah...exactly my point. You'll never get statistics on a catcher's ability to call a game, because it's subjective. It doesn't mean it's not a valuable skillset meaningful to a team.

[GD]

I don't have an issue with idea of framing. I have an issue with the accuracy and margin of error in the number, which is Gigantic.

 

The numbers are pretty f***ing reasonable.

 

Offensive statistics are park adjusted. Are framing statistics ump adjusted?

 

Wait so you're criticizing stats you don't even understand. Nice. Yes, they are. Christ.

 

It's voodoo science I say.

 

Ur dumn, I say.

[GD]

yeah...exactly my point. You'll never get statistics on a catcher's ability to call a game, because it's subjective.

 

I'll bet you $50 this isn't the case.

[Arkadium]

Fight! Fight! Fight!

[BTS]

WPA this season:

 

Steve Delabar = 0.86

Aaron Sanchez = 0.58

[Jimcanuck]

WPA this season:

 

Steve Delabar = 0.86

Aaron Sanchez = 0.58

 

WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. But it does give us a picture of which players helped their team the most during the course of a game. A fun way to think of WPA is as a storytelling statistic. It highlights the big (and most exciting) moments of a game as well as the players who contributed most to a win (or loss).

 

Like RBIs and HRs, WPA is a counting statistic, meaning that players with more playing time will have more opportunities to accrue a higher WPA.

 

Yer dumn

[reedjohnsonfan]

I'll bet you $50 this isn't the case.

 

I don't know. Give me a way you could come up with a useful stat to quantify game calling. I can't think of anything that would be useful, especially given the data they keep.

[saskjayfan]

I give up. Jimcanuck and saskjayfan are two very stupid and stubborn men.

 

k......

[reedjohnsonfan]

Like RBIs and HRs, WPA is a counting statistic, meaning that players with more playing time will have more opportunities to accrue a higher WPA.

 

Yer dumn

 

Delabar has pitched less than Sanchez...

[Jimcanuck]

Delabar has pitched less than Sanchez...

 

Good... that earned the Jays a couple of extra wins

[saskjayfan]

The numbers are pretty f***ing reasonable.

 

 

 

Wait so you're criticizing stats you don't even understand. Nice. Yes, they are. Christ.

 

 

 

Ur dumn, I say.

 

the numbers are pretty f***ing reasonable. You've taken high school math. You don't have a degree in mathematics or statistics from a university. You're not even qualified to give that opinion. The people quantifying these numbers would acknowledge the vast margin of error associated with them. I've passed calculus and stats courses at a post secondary level. Remember, I'm old. I don't spend my entire day reading baseball websites, but it doesn't mean I'm not aware of sabermetrics or entitled to give an opinion on them.

[GD]

I don't know. Give me a way you could come up with a useful stat to quantify game calling. I can't think of anything that would be useful, especially given the data they keep.

 

I've been trying to get my hands on some Catcher PITCH F/X data so that I could look at the ideal locations of pitches versus what the catchers actually call.