Official Fantasy Baseball Advice Thread

[Abomination]

In a salary dynasty league, who do you like better: Drew Smyly or Jose Quintana?

 

I personally would prefer Smyly even if the salaries were equal. I might be the only one though.

[Laika]

Quintana absolutely

[The Cats Ass]

Quintana

[The Cats Ass]

Is the inverted W a real thing? And should it be a concern for pitchers?

[KingKat]

Is the inverted W a real thing?

 

The inverted W is the biggest load of hogwash since the Verducci effect.

[Laika]

Is the inverted W a real thing? And should it be a concern for pitchers?

 

Yes; probably not.

 

http://ojs.sagepub.com/content/3/4/2325967115581594.full

 

Results: Consensus between investigators was achieved for 99% of players for inverted-W positioning (248 players) and in 97% of players for early trunk rotation (243 players) for videos reviewed independently. Rate of surgery with and without inverted-W position was 28 of 93 (30%) and 42 of 155 (27%), respectively. Rate of surgery with and without early trunk rotation was 37 of 111 (33%) and 30 of 132 (23%), respectively. Using a Cox proportional hazards model for risk analysis using the measured number of innings pitched at time of surgery as an approximate index of exposure and adjusting for age and fastball speed at time of surgery, early trunk rotation was associated with significantly increased risk of shoulder and/or elbow surgery with hazard ratio estimate of 1.69 (95% CI, 1.02-2.80). Presence of the inverted-W position was not associated with significantly increased risk (hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.79-2.14).

 

The timing of the arm and body is important, but it's not as simple as looking for the inverted W. What "early trunk rotation" means, essentially, is that the shoulders are turning before the arm is 'cocked'. Imagine the whole body firing to deliver a pitch, but the arm is a bit late, so it drags behind. This increases stress on the arm (and also, probably, velocity).

 

There are physical things you can look for up and down the body to get a sense of timing. Look for where the arm is at foot plant. Look for where the arm is when the front shoulder is in the process of turning. Look at whether or not the hips turn before the shoulders. Look at how stiff the plant leg is through the pitching motion. Look at the path of the arm after releasing the ball. All of these things can influence injury risk - but the inverted W probably doesn't on it's own.

 

Note that the study linked may not be perfect. At a glance, there might be sample size concerns.

[L54]

Quintana

[jaysblue]

I like Smyly's skills but would definitely go Quintana. He's really good, has a fantastic contract, and has already established workhorse-hood at the age of 26.

 

Yeah I love Smyly's skillset as well, though I don't think he'll ever reach the high ceiling that me or others have him pegged at. Doesn't seem durable and injuries could play a role down the road. I'm a huge fan of Quintana (extremely underrated in baseball) and he's a workhorse on a fantastic contract like you said.

[jaysblue]

I personally would prefer Smyly even if the salaries were equal. I might be the only one though.

 

Yeah I think Smyly has a higher ceiling and better stuff, though the chances of him reaching it I think are slim. I don't think he'll be a consistent 200 + inning workhorse like Quintana. I think a similar career comp for Smyly could be Ted Lilly. Nothing more than a solid mid-rotation starter.

[P2F]

Dynasty League:

 

Cueto and Alex Meyer

for

Giolito and Bundy

 

Meyer is most likely irrelevant, but is that too much future to give up for Cueto?

[GD]

Too much imo

[crazy47larry]

Dynasty League:

 

Cueto and Alex Meyer

for

Giolito and Bundy

 

Meyer is most likely irrelevant, but is that too much future to give up for Cueto?

 

Giolito side wins

[Boxcar]

Bundy and Meyer are probably a wash. I think you're pretty happy if Giolito turns out as good as Cueto.

 

Tough call for me, would really depend where you are on the win curve. If you're an easy playoff team, I'd probably do it.

[P2F]

Bundy and Meyer are probably a wash. I think you're pretty happy if Giolito turns out as good as Cueto.

 

Tough call for me, would really depend where you are on the win curve. If you're an easy playoff team, I'd probably do it.

 

See, this is more in line with MY thoughts.

 

I'm first place at the moment.

[GD]

I would think you could get a better pitcher than Cueto for Giolito+, thinking in terms of market value.

[crazy47larry]

I would think you could get a better pitcher than Cueto for Giolito+, thinking in terms of market value.

 

i agree with this. plus i think giolito will be better than cueto in only a couple years. i also think cueto only has a couple truly good years left.

[Boxcar]

I would think you could get a better pitcher than Cueto for Giolito+, thinking in terms of market value.

 

Like who? You're not getting a Cole, Syndergaard, Fernandez. Maybe Kluber? Doubtful though. Carrasco? Lester has a couple years on Cueto. Idk if you know this but Johnny Cueto is pretty damn good. You're just typically averse to even trades, not everyone is.

 

i agree with this. plus i think giolito will be better than cueto in only a couple years. i also think cueto only has a couple truly good years left.

 

You can think whatever you like, but the odds are that Giolito won't be as good as Cueto is. Nothing that you're saying here is built on anything near tangible. He's looking for advice based on measurable factors.

[TheHurl]

Better fantasy prospect

 

Gallo or Moncada?

[KingKat]

Better fantasy prospect

 

Gallo or Moncada?

 

Moncada for me.

[crazy47larry]

Like who? You're not getting a Cole, Syndergaard, Fernandez. Maybe Kluber? Doubtful though. Carrasco? Lester has a couple years on Cueto. Idk if you know this but Johnny Cueto is pretty damn good. You're just typically averse to even trades, not everyone is.

 

 

 

You can think whatever you like, but the odds are that Giolito won't be as good as Cueto is. Nothing that you're saying here is built on anything near tangible. He's looking for advice based on measurable factors.

 

measurable factor = giolito is a better pitching prospect than cueto ever was

 

measurable factor = giolito is one of, if not the single best, top pitching prospects right now

 

measurable factor = giolito is younger than cueto

 

measurable factor = all of this stuff http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-aging-curves-starters-and-relievers/

 

measurable factor = johnny cueto is ranked #25 out of all SP eligible players when accounting for ERA, WHIP, SO. thats barely a #1 starter in a 30 team league. he gets bumped up to #16 if you include WINs but everyone knows wins are fluky as hell for pitchers so they arent very reliable.

[Cyborg]

Better fantasy prospect

 

Gallo or Moncada?

 

If the league is 5x5 then Moncada. If its 7x7 then its much closer.

[crazy47larry]

Better fantasy prospect

 

Gallo or Moncada?

 

absolutely moncada. gallo scares the hell out of me. moncada had like 2 years off and raked immediately.

[Dr. Dinger]

Who knew Moancada would turn into Rickey Henderson? 69 SB in 112 MiLB games.

[Cyborg]

Cueto is more than fair for Giolito. Giolito isnt the top guy anymore. He has been brutal this year. Urias, Glasnow, and De Leon ahead of him for sure plus maybe a few more now such as Hader, Espinoza, Bickford, Honeywell and the DBacks Cody Reed?

[AdamGreenwood]

Finally. Someone talking sense. I really don't see the love for Giolito. Stats are terrible, and it's not like he's way underage.

Meanwhile Urias is 19, and not just in AAA, but in the PCL - the league where Arencibia and Thames have a 1.000 OPS and he's kicking ass.

[crazy47larry]

Cueto is more than fair for Giolito. Giolito isnt the top guy anymore. He has been brutal this year. Urias, Glasnow, and De Leon ahead of him for sure plus maybe a few more now such as Hader, Espinoza, Bickford, Honeywell and the DBacks Cody Reed?

 

dont just scout the statline. urias okay i can concede that cuz urias is a unicorn (i still dont think he has the ceiling giolito has but his floor is heavenly). glasnow is on par with giolito though. none of those other guys have the talent giolito has.

[Cyborg]

dont just scout the statline. urias okay i can concede that cuz urias is a unicorn (i still dont think he has the ceiling giolito has but his floor is heavenly). glasnow is on par with giolito though. none of those other guys have the talent giolito has.

 

They all have the velo. Secondary pitches are hard to scout, as is future command. Stats certainly matter and prospects can make huge jumps either up or down.

[crazy47larry]

They all have the velo. Secondary pitches are hard to scout, as is future command. Stats certainly matter and prospects can make huge jumps either up or down.

 

well you could scout this >>> http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/educational-film-lucas-giolitos-bowel-locking-curveball/

... or literally every other scouting report that gives him like an 80 fastball + 80 curveball + above average changeup already.

 

and oh yeah u could put alex reyes in that glasnow/giolito tier too. those guys could all be true #1 pitchers.

[Cyborg]

well you could scout this >>> http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/educational-film-lucas-giolitos-bowel-locking-curveball/

... or literally every other scouting report that gives him like an 80 fastball + 80 curveball + above average changeup already.

 

and oh yeah u could put alex reyes in that glasnow/giolito tier too. those guys could all be true #1 pitchers.

 

Forgot Reyes since he hasnt pitched yet but yes hes good. It sounds like youre talking more about ceiling though. Kind of a expected outcome and stats vs. ceiling and scouting argument.

[Cyborg]

Id rather have the great stat guy with good stuff than the mediocre stat guy with excellent stuff.

 

For example Id rather have Stroman than Sanchez when they were both in AA.