2014 prediction thread

[Olerud363]

running thread to state your view on the blue jays record in 2014. Place to update your predictions based on moves that are made.

 

Based on AAs comments today I see - lf Melky, cf Colby, rf Bautista, 3b Lawrie, ss Reyes, 2b Goins, 1b EE, DH Lind, C Arencibia, Pitching 1. Dickey, 2. Beurhle, 3. Mr. X 4. Morrow, 5. Happ. Bullpen, roughly the same.

 

Mr. X. is a 12-10 4.00 guy.

 

2014 - Blue Jays score 661 runs, allow 691, record is 76-86

 

Offense is down because nothing will be done to address weaknesses/regressions (dynamic bats!!), Goins/Arencibia are better then 2b/c 2013 (because anybody would be) but not players that can be regulars on a playoff team. Lind/Rasmus regress to career averages, Reyes/Bautista/EE lose a bit as they continue into their 30s (just a bit but it adds up), more importantly one of those 3 suffers major injury which reduces value to near 0.

 

Defense isn't good, despite AAs "promise" to concentrate on defense. Defense isn't good because Bautista, EE, Reyes are 30 somethings, Arencibia is Arencibia.

 

Pitching is improved... not really because of the acquisition of Mr. X. (12-10 4.00) but because Nolin, Stroman, even Sanchez and others are good depth for the injuries, Dickey, Morrow bounce back a bit.

 

Blue Jays 11th runs scored, 8th runs against, tiny bit of pythagoran bad luck gives 76-86.

 

Will update based on any moves that are made.

[Olerud363]

Going into 2014 Jays are the worst team in the division. All other teams have better talent

 

So far...

 

Olerud363 - Jays go 76-86, don't know if they will be last, People tell me Yanks will be incredibly bad, believe when I see it.

MohYou - Jays will be last. Does not specify a record.

 

Opinions may be updated based on offseason moves.

[GD]

I'm going to wait until I see everything unfold in the offseason, but as of right now, I think I'll pull at number out of my ass and say this team is probably a 79-82 win true talent team.

[DH12]

Whatever they do in the off season won't affect the Jays. They will be in last place again

[GD]

Whatever they do in the off season won't affect the Jays. They will be in last place again

 

Three team trade that ends up as Kershaw + Trout + Harper for Arencibia and Izturis and I think you'd still say this and mean it

[DH12]

running thread to state your view on the blue jays record in 2014. Place to update your predictions based on moves that are made.

 

Based on AAs comments today I see - lf Melky, cf Colby, rf Bautista, 3b Lawrie, ss Reyes, 2b Goins, 1b EE, DH Lind, C Arencibia, Pitching 1. Dickey, 2. Beurhle, 3. Mr. X 4. Morrow, 5. Happ. Bullpen, roughly the same.

 

Mr. X. is a 12-10 4.00 guy.

 

2014 - Blue Jays score 661 runs, allow 691, record is 76-86

 

Offense is down because nothing will be done to address weaknesses/regressions (dynamic bats!!), Goins/Arencibia are better then 2b/c 2013 (because anybody would be) but not players that can be regulars on a playoff team. Lind/Rasmus regress to career averages, Reyes/Bautista/EE lose a bit as they continue into their 30s (just a bit but it adds up), more importantly one of those 3 suffers major injury which reduces value to near 0.

 

Defense isn't good, despite AAs "promise" to concentrate on defense. Defense isn't good because Bautista, EE, Reyes are 30 somethings, Arencibia is Arencibia.

 

Pitching is improved... not really because of the acquisition of Mr. X. (12-10 4.00) but because Nolin, Stroman, even Sanchez and others are good depth for the injuries, Dickey, Morrow bounce back a bit.

 

Blue Jays 11th runs scored, 8th runs against, tiny bit of pythagoran bad luck gives 76-86.

 

 

 

Will update based on any moves that are made.

 

I agree with your analysis. They will trade Rasmus likely but all they will get back is a .500 or so pitcher. Defense will only be slightly improved. Every team in the East will be better again.

[GD]

Mr. X. is a 12-10 4.00 guy.

 

Can Jeff Samardzija be this guy? Pretty please?

[Olerud363]

So far the concensus for anyone who has given number is 77 or so

 

I think there are 10 wins to be gained by choosing the right outfielder, second basemen, and catcher. I base this on the fact the C, LF, 2B were -5. They won't be -5 again next year but something else will go wrong. Maybe Bautista will miss a lot of time, or Reyes injured again, or Rasmus will go back to 2012 style. I don't know.

 

But by acquiring an outfielder, a second basemen and catcher, things are more robust... I think major playing time will be available for Melky even if another outfielder is aquired. Melky starts year as 4th outfielder (we can have a nice story, Melky given more off for tumor recovery) then when things go wrong Melky just steps in and if he's healthy gets 135 games anyway.

 

I think there are only 5 wins to be gained on the pitching side... Based on what I expect for the pitchers in 2014, not what they did in 2013. Dickey/Buerhle/Morrow/Happ/Hutch/Drabek/Nolin/Stroman projected 2014 is not as bad as Dickey/Buerhle/Morrow/Johnson etc. 2013.

 

If AA learned one thing from this year, is that he can't go by last years stats, just cold hard next year projections... and allready I bet he's underestimating what the pitching is likely to do 2014

[Abomination]

I think there's a good chance we'll see what we expected to see when this year began. Something in the 87 to 93 win area. Hopefully that gets us a playoff spot.

[kgm1]

With minimal roster moves, I'll say a 75-87 record.

 

Obviously moves will be made .Still with the pitching depth we have this year and better defense at 2nd and LF this team alone is close to 500 say 80-82 .

 

I,m confident AA gets a catcher, a left fielder , and a starter . That puts us at 85 wins . Then it all comes down to guys like Morrow and health .

 

I,ll say 86 and 76 and in 3rd place .

 

What is ugly about that is with a management desperate to win that means moves at the trade deadline costing us valuable talent .

[Olerud363]

I hate Melky as a 4th OF. The guy looks like a 45-year old out there and can't even defend left. He really doesn't seem to fit in at all next year.

 

I am taking AAs comments today at face value... the tumour was very big and the training staff were amazed he was even moving around at all. After tumour removal he will be much better.

 

I can understand why you are skeptical.

 

I am projecting Melky at, I don't know, .290 .350 .420 or so with decent defense... 135 games. Platoon with Lind at DH, and fill in for Bautista, Colby, Mr. X injuries where Mr. X is another mashing outfielder we acquire.

 

But if AA is just bullshitting us about Melky or he's delusional... which he could be... well where f***ed anyway if the fat greek is that out to lunch,.

[Olerud363]

Obviously moves will be made .Still with the pitching depth we have this year and better defense at 2nd and LF this team alone is close to 500 say 80-82 .

 

I,m confident AA gets a catcher, a left fielder , and a starter . That puts us at 85 wins . Then it all comes down to guys like Morrow and health .

 

I,ll say 86 and 76 and in 3rd place .

 

What is ugly about that is with a management desperate to win that means moves at the trade deadline costing us valuable talent .

 

Sounds similiar to 2008. There were no crazy player moves made, the desparate act was hiring Cito again.

 

Not sure if Cito was not the right guy to introduce JP Arencibia and Snider to the majors or the right guy to convince Halladay to stay a couple more years.

[havok24]

77-85

[SAAviour]

Linds option picked up, then sent to NL for a low level prospect with decent upside. 2 million sent to nil team in the deal. Lind goes on to have an injury free career year.

Melky is full time DH and lights the world on fire in his walk year, offered qualifying offer at end of season.

Left field is platoon between Gose and Sierra with pillar in AAA.

Reyes has a typical year and gets injured in the 2nd half with about 40 games to play.

Ervin Santana is signed for 5 years $75 million and is a semi bust.

Dickey turns into a very solid #2, has a very good year.

Morrow pitches in 15 games.

Hutchison is one of our best pitchers. As is stroman who is called up in 2nd half.

Redmond is given a spot out of spring as #5 and 6-8 starts are wasted on his shittyness before he heads to buffalo.

Lawrie is an all star.

Arencebia is traded and turns into a top 10 catcher for a NL team, becomes public enemy #1 for every jays fan....except for 15 year old girls who continually talk on twitter about how a true jays fan would never have wanted him off the team.

Jays are decent, not good enough for playoffs, not bad enough to trade vets at deadline. Finish 7 games out of wildcard but are never close enough to be interesting.

Sanchez has tommy john surgery in the 2nd half effectively ending his 2015 season as well.

[Olerud363]

Linds option picked up, then sent to NL for a low level prospect with decent upside. 2 million sent to nil team in the deal. Lind goes on to have an injury free career year.

Melky is full time DH and lights the world on fire in his walk year, offered qualifying offer at end of season.

Left field is platoon between Gose and Sierra with pillar in AAA.

Reyes has a typical year and gets injured in the 2nd half with about 40 games to play.

Ervin Santana is signed for 5 years $75 million and is a semi bust.

Dickey turns into a very solid #2, has a very good year.

Morrow pitches in 15 games.

Hutchison is one of our best pitchers. As is stroman who is called up in 2nd half.

Redmond is given a spot out of spring as #5 and 6-8 starts are wasted on his shittyness before he heads to buffalo.

Lawrie is an all star.

Arencebia is traded and turns into a top 10 catcher for a NL team, becomes public enemy #1 for every jays fan....except for 15 year old girls who continually talk on twitter about how a true jays fan would never have wanted him off the team.

Jays are decent, not good enough for playoffs, not bad enough to trade vets at deadline. Finish 7 games out of wildcard but are never close enough to be interesting.

Sanchez has tommy john surgery in the 2nd half effectively ending his 2015 season as well.

 

Let me just play around with some stats to help me think through your scenario...

 

Melky -- world on fire .320 15 90 -- that sound about right??

Reyes 120 games .290 10 45, really not that different then this year, 20 more games maybe

Santana - 9-13 4.75

Dickey 16-11 3.70

Morrow .... 15 good games or 15 horrible games... I'll put him somewhere in between 5-5 4.30 I will say

Hutch 15-10 3.70

Lawrie .290 20 90

Stroman 6-4 3.44

 

Jays 84-78 --

 

This scenario would please me. Hutch, Lawrie established atleast Dickey on track to have a decent 40s (he's a knuckle baller). So at this point they would have to raise the payroll again but with Lawrie, Hutch, Stroman, Dickey, good Melky, Reyes a 3 WAR short stop and other pieces.... dang... this is like a best case scenario

 

You don't really say what happens to Bautista and EE. But again, Lawrie - career on track... Melky "dynamic bat", Dickey rebound, Hutch/Stroman penned in for 2015. In this scenario people atleast get excited for 2015.

[SAAviour]

That's about it olerud....EE does his thing and Bautista is about the same as this year, misses a month somewhere with injury.

[o2cui2i]

Current roster?

77 wins

 

Are there a set of moves that can be made to get us to the playoffs?

Yes

 

Will this happen?

No

 

have to agree. as long as it's the same people making the decisions and the same people running the jays minor league system we are doomed to watch baseball that is somewhere between dismal and very average.