2014 MLB Draft: An Early Look

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You the man King!

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Perfect Game scouting reports on the guys we've been connected to.

 

Trea Turner

Position: SS

Height: 6-1 Weight: 171

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: June 30, 1993

College: NC State

Hometown: Lake Worth, Fla.

Previously Drafted: Pirates '11 (20)

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

If you’d like to get an idea of just how highly valued shortstops are, just take a look at Deven Marrero in the 2012 draft. By most accounts, Marrero had a disappointing junior season at Arizona State University, but the Red Sox still took him with the 24th overall pick in the first round. There were very serious doubts about his ability to swing the bat at the next level, but the fact that none of those doubts existed about his ability at shortstop was the reason he was still a first round draft pick. So, let’s this serve as a preface to discussing Trea Turner, who has more mild questions about his bat, and is a plus defender at the position.The questions about Turner’s bat are somewhat new. Until last summer, he made a name for himself at N.C. State primarily on the strength of his gaudy and surprisingly potent offensive numbers for the Wolfpack. Turner was a late bloomer coming out high school, as he had some catching up to do at least physically. He did, however, get some late attention – the Pittsburgh Pirates made an under the radar run at signing him as a 20th round draft pick in 2011.

 

The first two years of college baseball were stellar ones from Turner. The 6-foot-1, Lake Worth, Florida native was an instant triple threat his freshman season, making a name for himself in the field, at the plate, and on the base paths. Turner led the nation with 57 stolen bases in 61 attempts, a truly staggering statistic especially when you consider that he at one point swiped 29 bags in a row. And, for a player mostly known for his speed and slick fielding – he played third base as a freshman – Turner had a dynamic spring at the plate. He hit .336 in 63 games, and also swatted five home runs and 13 doubles along the way.

 

Things only got better for Turner during his sophomore season, as he slid over to his natural position at shortstop. He led the team with his .368 batting average and swiped 30 bases despite missing 11 games due to injury. And, with these gaudy numbers accumulated over two seasons, it seemed only natural that Turner would continue to flourish when he was selected to play for the Collegiate National Team that summer.

 

That success did not continue, though, as Turner had his share of struggles at the plate with Team USA, and some scouts speculated that his spring ankle injury was still looming over his performance and hindering him in some ways. Whatever the reason was, it led to some questions about Turner’s long-term offensive upside that have followed him into this spring.

 

Numbers wise, Turner is doing his thing so far this year. He’s hit four home runs through his first 27 games and has stolen nine bases. Yet, questions still persist from scouts. And, before seeing him over the last two weeks, my natural question was why? I’ve had very little doubt about Turner’s bat in past viewings of him. He’s a superb off-speed hitter, and he keeps his hands back on breaking pitches exceptionally well. There have always been ways to get him out inside, but he stays within the zone well and has a flat, compact line drive swing. But, make a mistake and he has enough bat speed and life in his barrel to take a pitch out of the park.

 

To make that whole approach work, however, takes good balance and a steady lower half. That lower half has looked just a little bit different this spring. Turner has gotten on his front foot at times and gotten a little spread out during his stride.

 

If this spring is your longest and most prominent view of Turner, or most of your looks were at a potentially hampered Turner with Team USA, it’s only natural to have some doubts about his offensive upside. For now, however, this has the feel of a temporary problem. The issue is mechanical in nature, and his physical tools, including his bat speed, look just fine.

 

Turner is a 65 or 70 runner on the 20-80 scale, although some have graded him as high as an 80. He has a tick above average throwing arm at shortstop, and his hands and range appear to be a constant in his game.

 

Look around the country. Can you find another player you can be fairly confident can play shortstop at the big league level and provide something offensively? You’d be hard pressed to find a good one outside of Trea Turner, and that’s the case in most draft classes. And, that’s also the reason why it’s going to be very difficult for Turner to slide beyond the top 20 picks, regardless of what issues scouts may have with his bat for the remainder of this spring.

 

He’s a defensively capable big league shortstop right now, and if he can get his lower half more consistently back underneath him, he still has more than enough offensive firepower to put himself back into the picture in the top seven to 10 picks. Turner seems to have a knack for outplaying people’s expectations of him, and that stems from a well noted work ethic. As for the swing issues he’s run into this spring, you can be quite sure he’s already in the midst of trying to address them.

[ace3113]

Continued...

 

Jeff Hoffman

Position: RHP

Height: 6-4 Weight: 192

Bats/Throws: B-R

Birthdate: Jan. 8, 1993

College: East Carolina

Hometown: Latham, N.Y.

Previously Drafted: Never drafted

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

While Carlos Rodon has been the name everyone seemingly has known since he arrived on campus at NC State, and he’s been the player most have dubbed the future No. 1 pick in the 2014 class, a new contender in that race emerged in a big way last summer. In fact, he’s the only player in the 2014 draft class that can currently and legitimately challenge Rodon for that lofty title of “best prospect in the class.” And, while Hoffman has ground to make up, and a breakout summer he has to follow up on, make no mistake that he will be under the same microscope as the highly touted Wolfpack southpaw throughout this spring.

 

If you had to plot a graph of Jeff Hoffman’s career in the last three years, you might notice a very steep slope in the upward direction. Hoffman defines the term late bloomer, as he was not noted as a draftable talent until very late in his high school career. There were scouts and teams laying in the weeds on his blossoming talent at that time, but it’s hard to think that many could have projected what he’d become less than three years later.

 

When first we saw Hoffman on a major stage, he was lighting up radar guns at the 2012 Cape Cod League All-Star game in Harwich. Known mainly as a power armed freshman out of ECU for scouts to keep an eye on, he introduced himself in a big way, touching 96 mph and flashing that sharp breaking ball for which he’s come to be known. It was a turning point of summer, as Hoffman posted a 2.40 ERA in 30 innings of work for Hyannis.

 

The native of Latham, New York had that big summer as well as a strong freshman season at East Carolina to build off of headed into his 2013 season. And, he wasted no time to ascending to the role of staff ace for the Pirates. The 6-foot-4, 192 pound righthander logged 109 2/3 innings, posting a 3.20 ERA in that span, while striking out 84 and walking 39.A little stronger, a little more mature, and whole lot more experienced, Hoffman returned to the Hyannis Harbor Hawks in 2013 for another go around in the Cape League. His stint would be a very scheduled one, as there was a wise plan to control his innings. Hoffman opted against a stint with Team USA, and his strategy to showcase his talents on the Cape appear to have paid off. Hoffman made a coincidentally extravagant and highly anticipated 2013 Cape Cod debut on the Fourth of July for Hyannis in front of an enormous holiday crowd and a packed house of scouting directors and cross-checkers. Six dominant innings later, it was clear how much the big righthander had progressed from just the year before.

 

After a hiccup in which his command betrayed him, and a talented Falmouth lineup made him pay for it, Hoffman finished off his summer with two electric outings against Orleans and Chatham, with his stuff seemingly to improving with each outing. In those final two outings, Hoffman lived consistently between 94-97 mph, topping routinely at 98, showing big late two-seam action when down in the zone. It’s difficult to peg one pitch as Hoffman’s best, but it would be difficult to argue with his curveball, which is a 65 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale, and has hard, late 11-to-5 action at 80-84 mph. There have been some early reports of inconsistency with this pitch in the early going this spring, however, and that did happen from time to time on the Cape as well. But, when it’s right, it’s a knockout big league breaking ball.

 

Perhaps the biggest difference for him, though, was the changeup, which now flashed above average potential. Thrown between 85-88 mph, Hoffman drops his arm action ever so slightly on this pitch, but it shows good fading action and he located it very well against lefty batters. He proved willing to throw first pitch changeups, or even go back to back, and then finish hitters with his explosive fastball.

 

In terms of his delivery and arm action, there’s nothing to worry about there for Hoffman. It’s a clean, repeatable, athletic delivery with possibly unmatched arm speed in the draft class. He’ll need to be careful of tipping his changeup, but other than simply being consistent, you’d be hard pressed to find physical glaring weaknesses in Hoffman’s game. And, his thin, young build also leads many scouts to believe that he is still just scratching the surface of his front of the rotation potential.

 

That build is another big check mark in Hoffman’s favor. People like to talk about how scouts weigh athleticism with position players in their evaluation, but they also like to see it in pitchers as well. Long and lanky doesn’t always equal projectable, sometimes it just equates to awkward and gawky. And, that lends itself to an inability to repeat a delivery or improve. Hoffman lives at the opposite end of that spectrum. He’s a plus athlete who could have excelled in a number of sports and is only going to get stronger with maturity. In fact, we’ve seen proof of this on the basketball court (VIDEO).Hoffman will live in the pressure cooker throughout this spring. What he has going for him right now is a lack of a significant injury history and that he’s remained active through the last two summers. The key for him, given that he was not a widely renowned commodity coming to campus us a freshman, is exposure, and showing scouts he can accumulate the track record that warrants a first overall selection.

 

Last year, entering the favorite to go No. 1 overall was Mark Appel, and his main challenger was shaping up to be Indiana State’s Sean Manaea. But, Manaea failed to reproduce his electrifying summer performance from the Cape and injuries also contributed to his eventual inability to challenge Appel for that mantle. So far, there seems to be no such issues for Hoffman – as two starts into his spring season he’s shown the exact level of dominant, front of the rotation stuff he showcased last summer for Hyannis. If anything, early word indicates that his changeup has continued to develop and now flashes true plus potential.

 

The reality, however, is that whether Hoffman has a chance to unseat Carlos Rodon is the only question about his draft status. Barring an injury, it’s difficult to fathom a scenario in which the flame throwing righty ends up beyond the top three to five picks of the draft.

[ace3113]

And on...

 

Touki Toussaint

Position: RHP

Height: 6-2 Weight: 195

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: June 20, 1996

High School: Coral Springs Christian Academy

City, State: Coral Springs, Fla.

Travel Team: Atlanta Blue Jays

Commitment: Vanderbilt

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

If players were ranked on a combination of their colorful and unique backgrounds along with their own outgoing personalities, Touki Toussaint would probably rank No. 1 in the 2014 class. Much has already been written about him being from Haiti and not taking up baseball, and that on a dare from a friend, until his early teens. There are more stories to be written as well, perhaps by enterprising journalists when he reaches the big leagues.

 

Suffice to say that Toussaint is alone in the 2014 class in that he has ascended to one name status, like a Brazilian soccer star. He is known everywhere in the baseball community simply as “Touki.”Of course, the reason why Toussaint will likely be drafted in the first round in June, maybe very high in the first round, is not because he’s Touki but because he has some of the nastiest raw stuff thrown by a high school pitcher in the last generation.

 

Toussaint’s fastball has touched as high as 97 mph at Perfect Game events, and reportedly peaked at 98 mph at other venues, but has settled in consistently in the 92-94 range topping regularly at 96 over the last year, including in his first appearance this spring. Toussaint’s fastball velocity plays up because of its hard and often unpredictable life at the plate, and he gets an exceptional number of swing and misses on the pitch, even for someone throwing in that velocity range.

 

But for as good as Toussaint’s fastball is, it’s his secondary pitches that set him apart. The scariest part for hitters is that Toussaint appears to be modifying and adding to his repertoire, as befits someone who is still relatively new to the game.

 

Toussaint’s signature pitch has always been his curveball. His original deuce was a low- to mid-70s pitch that was almost unique in that it was thrown 18-20 mph slower than his fastball. Most quality curveballs are 12-14 mph slower than a pitcher’s fastball and sometimes even less. The vast majority of curveballs thrown 18-20 mph slower are bad to mediocre pitches, with the difference in velocity accounted for by a slower arm or a poor release.

 

The only top level curveball I can remember personally that resembled Toussaint’s was thrown by the late Darryl Kile. Kile, who was a converted first baseman and not originally a pitcher in a different way than the soccer playing Toussaint wasn’t a pitcher, threw a soft curveball that came at the hitter like a helicopter, then turned into an F-18 and dove hard at the catcher. The visual effect from the stands is profound – from the right hand batter’s box it must be scary. It really looks like the pitch picks up speed when it bites.

 

Late last summer and fall, Toussaint began to throw a different curveball in the 79-81 mph range, more what one would call a regular curveball, except most regular pitchers can't throw a curveball that hard or with that much spin and depth.

 

Toussaint’s other addition last summer was a pitch that’s been variously described as both a cutter and a changeup and probably even a slider by others. The pitch comes in at 85-87 mph and acts effectively as a changeup, only with occasional big life running away from righthanded hitters.

 

A nit-picking scout or coach might point out that Toussaint has no pitch that moves away from lefthanded hitters at the moment and managers are going to stack line-ups with lefties at the higher levels against him to avoid the unlikelihood of a righthander squaring up his curveballs. But with the high level aptitude that Toussaint has shown in developing his other off-speed pitches, it’s only a matter of time and coaching before he has that pitch as well.All of Toussaint’s strengths and all of his flaws have been on display at the WWBA World Championships for the Atlanta Blue Jays the past two Octobers. In 2012 he started two games, throwing three innings in each outing and topping out at 97 mph with just his slower curveball as a secondary pitch. He struck out the full complement of 18 hitters in those six innings.Last October Toussaint only started one game, as the Blue Jays did not advance in the playoffs as they had the year before. He was only able to go two innings, as his pitch count reached the mid-50s quickly. In those two innings, Toussaint walked five hitters and struck out seven.

 

In eight innings over two years facing some of the best players in the country, throwing in a pressure packed environment in front of hundreds of scouts, Toussaint allowed one hit and struck out 25 hitters.The obvious present issue with Toussaint is that his command comes and goes from batter to batter. Part of his walk issues are simply that his stuff is too difficult to hit in fair territory. Toussaint is a well above average athlete and his delivery contains no major flaws or excessive effort that would easily explain his command issues. They seem to be as much a product of his inexperience, as he will be cruising along in dominant mode, then unravel quickly, seemingly unable to make a quick mental or mechanical adjustment to get back into the strike zone until he’s thrown 8-12 errant pitches.

 

A veteran scouting director, with over 20 years of cross checking and directing experience, took me aside in Jupiter and shared the following with me:“As a scouting director you have to account for what your General Manager and your player development staff are looking for in prospects, especially first rounders. My team wants high ceiling players, players with superstar potential. If I was able to draft Touki, the staff would go crazy thinking about his potential. He’s exactly what my organization is looking for. I could care less about the command issues. I just want that athlete, that arm and those pitches.”

[ace3113]

GD's guy...

 

Max Pentecost

Position: C

Height: 6-1 Weight: 190

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: March 10, 1993

College: Kennesaw State

Hometown: Winder, Ga.

Previously Drafted: Rangers '11 (7)

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

There are too many stories to count of players who were highly touted out of high school, opted against lucrative professional offers and attended college. There are even more stories of players who were less than household names in the scouting world coming out of the high school ranks who blossomed into top draft picks in college. Kennesaw State’s Max Pentecost falls somewhere in between those two categories. Thought to be a sleeper of sorts coming out the prep ranks, there were teams out there thinking of Pentecost as a potential steal beyond the top five rounds of the draft.

 

One of those clubs that came away particularly intrigued by Pentecost’s skill-set and upside back in 2011 was the Texas Rangers, who ended up drafting him in the seventh round. The athletic backstop had progressed significantly in his senior season from the summer before, when he had shown tools but not the polish of an elite draft selection. The Winder, Georgia native attended the 2010 Perfect Game National Showcase and ended up receiving a grade of 9.5 in his official scouting report. It was pointed out the while he possessed the requisite arm strength and agility behind the plate, many of his fundamentals needed further development.

 

The key words in that report were “projects well.” A young player in need of strength and maturity, Pentecost’s bat was also not nearly at the advanced point back in 2011 that we’ve seen it reach today. But, by the spring of 2011, scouts were beginning to see strong hints of Pentecost evolving into a high level player – and, that’s what led to his seventh round selection. Ultimately, talks broke down between the Rangers and Pentecost, and he of course would end up at Kennesaw State. But, make no mistake, Texas and many other clubs saw the very clear beginnings of Pentecost becoming the elite player he is today.

 

The 6-foot-1, 190-pound backstop held his own as a freshman for the Owls, putting up a .277 batting average in 191 at-bats. His emergence truly began, however, when he arrived in the NECBL to suit up for the Holyoke Blue Sox that summer. There, he hit .303 and began to show more power potential, as he swatted three home runs in 37 games.

 

Doing a good job of building off that performance, Pentecost returned to Kennesaw State in 2013 and put together a solid sophomore season. He hit .302 in 57 games, slugging three home runs and 14 doubles in the process. Perhaps more importantly, he caught 46 percent of the base runners who attempted to steal against him.It’s usually impossible to pinpoint moments in a players’ career as to when they “arrived.” Sometimes though, and this is rare, you can look back at one particular game and say that’s when it all culminated. On July 10th of 2013, Max Pentecost arrived as a first round draft prospect. Sure, he’d been busy obliterating the Cape Cod League for weeks prior, but if you were selling Pentecost as a product, this is the game footage you would want to be shown. He went on to win the league’s MVP honors for the Bourne Braves – as well as PG's summer collegiate Player of the Year – in what was an obvious choice. Pentecost hit .346 with a .424 on-base percentage and six home runs. Couple that with his consistent play behind the plate and he was clearly the league’s most impactful and dynamic talent.

 

But, going back to his signature night, It was a 5-for-5 night at the plate for Pentecost, so even at first glance it was a highly impressive evening. But, the closer you look the more impressed you’ll be. He reached base seven times that night in Orleans, via a hit by pitch, a home run, a single, a walk, another single, a drag bunt single, and a go-ahead home run in the top of the 12th inning to cap it off. Try to find a catcher spending 12 innings behind the dish that has had a better night at the plate than that at any level.

 

July 10th was essentially the perfect Max Pentecost showcase. Everything you need to know to fill out his evaluation card was on display in that game. My two recorded home-to-first times for him that night were 4.18 and 4.25 seconds respectively, showing that he is a different breed when it comes to speed and athleticism for catchers. He gets out of the box exceptionally well and shows undoubted, present 55 speed on the 20-80 scale. As with most catchers, you have to project backwards somewhat on that, but catchers with big league average speed are more than a little difficult to come by. Worth noting that Pentecost has eight stolen bases in his first two years of college baseball, and has never been caught. He stole five bases on the Cape and was caught just twice.

 

Then there are the two home runs Pentecost launched that night. Both shots were directly to his pull side and that’s where you should expect his power to be for the most part. It may be the biggest difference between his present and high school tool set. He’s very quick inside and shows as much trust in his hands as any player in the country. He handles the good fastball, but also proved to be a superb mistake hitter in Cape Cod. A breaking ball with less than perfect location is likely going to turn into a line drive off his bat.

 

Working from a very quiet setup, Pentecost has developed great strength in his wrists, and what results is a low effort looking swing that produces major life off his bat. And, his ability to handle off-speed pitches isn’t all the surprising if you watch the way Pentecost takes batting practice. Despite his game action power, you’ll rarely see Pentecost clear the fence in BP, and instead he’ll focus almost exclusively on hitting line drives to the middle of the field and the other way.

 

When you talk to scouts who saw a lot of Pentecost in high school, they comment as just as much about the progression of his receiving skills as they do his offense. He clearly has the athleticism and arm strength – he consistently produced 1.85 to 1.92 pop times all summer on the Cape – but his hands and side-to-side movement have become a strength in his game as well.

 

In other words, what scouts have for their consideration this spring is a player with the defensive tools and body to be an everyday big league catcher, with present above average speed, the potential for a plus hit tool and 55 power potential. A lot of this hinges on, like many players, his ability to duplicate the type of offensive performance he put together on the Cape. He has to show his power stroke is here to stay and that he is indeed the ultra-consistent line drive hitter that he appeared to be with the Bourne Braves. If that indeed happens, Pentecost will find himself going off the board in the first 20 picks in June.

[ace3113]

Second round types...

 

Mitch Keller

Position: RHP

Height: 6-3 Weight: 200

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: April 4, 1996

High School: Xavier

City, State: Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Travel Team: PG Iowa Select

Commitment: North Carolina

Projected Draft Round: 2-3

 

If you cup your hands behind your ears you can just barely hear the scouting buzz starting to come from Iowa righthander Mitch Keller’s early performances.

 

If Keller happened to go to high school in Orlando, Fla., or Long Beach, Calif., that buzz would be reaching a crescendo now only five weeks before the draft. However, due to the nature of high school baseball in Iowa and Keller’s rapid improvement over the last six months, teams are just now starting to realize that the Cedar Rapids native might be the best high school pitching prospect in the Midwest.

 

Keller has always been a well-known prospect regionally and his early commitment to North Carolina certainly indicates that others were noticing, too. His older brother, Jon, was an 11thround pick out of high school when he was topping out at 95 mph and is now pitching in the South Atlantic League with the Baltimore Orioles after college stints at Nebraska and Tampa. So the family baseball name was well established beforehand.

 

But unlike his early maturing fellow Iowa pitching prospect Keaton McKinney or even his brother, Keller’s physical growth and raw stuff on the mound took a more gradual path to where it is now. Here is his report from almost exactly two years ago at the 2012 PG Spring Top Showcase.

 

Slender athletic build, very young look. Low effort smooth delivery, high 3/4's slot, throws downhill, arm works very well, loose and easy out front. Fastball velocity up since February, topped out at 86 mph, nice run/tail when down in zone. Big breaking 11/5 curveball with good spin, just developing change up, tends to slow arm on off speed at times. May throw so easily that he lacks deception, especially to left hand hitters. High ceiling potential.

 

In the 18 months following that event Keller continued to improve gradually. The Perfect Game database notes that he topped out at 90 mph in his 10th PG event during the spring of 2013 and by last summer had settled into a very consistent pattern of throwing in the 86-89 mph range and topping out at 90-91. Keller maintained the same very easy mechanics and clean arm action, which undoubtedly contributed to the consistency in his raw stuff.

 

Another consistent aspect of Keller’s early development was that while his curveball was released properly and had good 11-to-5 shape to it at times, he tended to slow his arm coming up to release and didn’t seem to have conviction in throwing the pitch. It was impossible not to note that his brother had also had issues with throwing a breaking ball with conviction despite trying many variations during his high school days.

 

When the 2014 Iowa Spring League opened play in late March, McKinney, Indiana righthander Jonah Patten and shortstop Ryan Lilliard made up the trio of prospects that scouts knew they had to account for. Keller was on the radar but clearly a step behind those three.

 

That lasted about two pitches into Keller’s first game on a blustery Sunday morning in Glenwood, Iowa. Those warm up pitches came in at 92 and 93 mph and Keller had the rapt attention of the 30-35 scouts in attendance. He went on to throw two innings in the 90-94 mph range, showing the same easy delivery and arm action as he always has shown, along with a firm command of the strike zone.

 

Along with the increased velocity on his fastball came a marked improvement in Keller’s curveball. Not only was he throwing it harder at 74-75 mph, he was throwing it with real conviction and getting hard spin and s serious biting action, giving him two potential future plus pitches.

 

Keller has built on that first outing every opportunity since, opportunities which have unfortunately been few and far between due to weather in the Upper Midwest that has been even worse than usual for the time of year. He topped out at 95 mph at the recently completed 2014 PG Spring Top Showcase, a nine mile per hour increase over his performance two years ago, and has continued to show a potential plus curveball.

 

The Midwest does have a healthy number of top level 2014 pitching prospects. Along with McKinney, who has been very solid this spring, Sam Hentges in Minnesota, Bryce Montes de Oca in Kansas and Jake Godfrey in Illinois are all national level prospects who have been heavily crosschecked. But none of them combines the velocity, the breaking ball potential, the consistency and the hint of further projection more than Keller at this point.

 

The challenge will continue to be getting Keller enough innings and the national level scouts enough looks before June 5 to feel comfortable in their evaluations. If that happens, as it should, that buzz will indeed reach a crescendo before the draft.

[ace3113]

One more...

 

Michael Kopech

Position: RHP

Height: 6-4 Weight: 190

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: April 30, 1996

High School: Mount Pleasant

City, State: Mount Pleasant, Texas

Travel Team: Dallas Tigers

Commitment: Arizona

Projected Draft Round: 1-2

 

2013 Perfect Game All-American Michael Kopech embodies everything that scouts love to see in a top young pitching prospect. He also embodies many of the things that make the veteran decision makers wary of getting too excited about 18-year old pitchers.

 

The plus side starts with a prototype righthanded pitcher’s build. Kopech has a narrow, low waist with a long torso and long arms to go with a high degree of flexibility throughout his body. He has plenty of room to get stronger without even gaining much weight, and is regarded as an above average athlete for a primary pitching prospect.

 

Kopech’s arm action, looseness and arm speed is also something that any scout can admire and project from. He has a full takeaway in back that shows the ball to the hitter somewhat, something that may be adjusted at the professional level, but he gets his hand up above his back shoulder at the right time and his arm is extremely fast coming through. He’s loose and natural out front decelerating his arm after release.

 

The body, athleticism and lightning fast arm all translate into velocity, of course, and in Kopech’s case, the steady upward curve of velocity gains that scouts like to see. Kopech made his Perfect Game debut pitching for the Dallas Tigers at the PG/East Cobb invitational in early June, 2012 coming off his sophomore year. He was invited to the PG National Junior Showcase immediately afterwards and shot to near the top of the 2014 class rankings after topping out at 91 mph.

 

He pitched steadily in the 89-92 range at a variety of events last summer, topping out at 94 mph on a couple of occasions. Reports this spring out of East Texas indicate that Kopech has continued his upward progression, pitching more in the 92-94 mph area while topping out at 96 mph, with some reports saying that he’s even touched 98.Kopech’s fastball also gets lots of late running life and is heavy down in the zone. He’s shown over the past two years that he can throw his fastball for strikes and has only walked nine hitters in 38 2/3 innings this spring, to go with 16 hits allowed and 80 strikeouts.

 

Where scouts get wary of pitchers of Kopech’s undeniable talent is in recognizing all the changes and adjustments that they will have to make over the coming 3-5 years in order for him to reach his potential in the upper reaches of professional baseball.

 

Kopech’s delivery is one of the more unique in the prospect ranks, and is a testament to his high level of athleticism and flexibility that he is able to repeat it as well as he does. But in order to evolve his control into command and to gain consistency and quality to his secondary pitches, especially his breaking ball, he will have to simplify his mechanics and become more directional.Kopech’s delivery starts with a huge side step and big back turn and high leg raise, accompanied by a large drift out to his front side with a bend in his back leg as his arm starts forward. His delivery and athletic actions have some Tim Lincecum to them, although his release point is lower and arm action is more horizontally based than the former two-time Cy Young Award winner. Kopech also tends to land closed on his front side and throws cross-body, although reports this spring indicate that he’s become more directional.

 

The clichés in the scouting industry range from “there’s a lot going on there” to simply “busy.” All those variables create inconsistency in release points and balance and thus inconsistency in the quality of pitches, especially over a starter’s longer pitch count.

 

The biggest inconsistency for Kopech has always been on his curveball. He’ll flash tight spin and good 11-to-5 depth at 75-78 mph when he’s staying on top of the pitch, but he has a strong tendency to drop his release slot and get under the pitch, leaving it flatter with a sweeping soft slider shape. Upper level hitters feast on that type of pitch in the middle of the zone and up. Kopech’s changeup is also still a work in progress.Notably, there are references in the Perfect Game notes to how well Kopech simplifies his delivery from the stretch and how his command and overall stuff improves with runners on base. That is a good lesson for every young pitcher – if your stuff and command are better from the stretch, you are doing something counterproductive in your delivery from the full windup.

 

A veteran Texas based scout made an interesting comparison recently, likening Kopech to another hard throwing, tall East Texas righthander, Expos 1996 first rounder John Patterson. Patterson famously signed with the Diamondbacks for a $6.075 million bonus after being declared a free agent after the draft due to a technicality. He pitched in the big leagues for six seasons before multiple arm injuries prematurely ended his career at 29 years old.

 

It’s unlikely that Kopech will get that type of interest come June 5 either in terms of draft slot or signing bonus, but he’s certain to be discussed by teams late in the first round and into the compensation round and early second round.

[ace3113]

We are in on Michael Kopech?

 

s***...um...jsahfjkashdlkjfhsdlkgaslk...not no.

[GD]

Very interesting. New name we are "in on". GD will like this one.

 

Nice! Although he's not "my guy," I do like him. Zimmer/Conforto > Pentecost/Turner. But Hoffman > all.

 

We are in on Michael Kopech?

 

He's a Texan. It's a safe assumption on Ace's part.

[Angrioter]

Hoffman could come here (Dominican Republic) or Haiti, obtain citizenship and then sign as a free agent lol

 

or

 

Sign with the Jays for 2 millions (ALA Dan Norris)

[Angrioter]

Nice! Although he's not "my guy," I do like him. Zimmer/Conforto > Pentecost/Turner. But Hoffman > all.

 

Pentecost/Turner premium position >>> Conforto/Zimmer

[ace3113]

Doubt he's on our radar, but I like what I've seen from this guy. He could be interesting if he can stay behind the plate. The guy's a doubles machine, but he kind of suffers from Curtis Thigpen-itis.

 

MLB.com:

 

Rank: 110

Connor Joe

San Diego, Junior

Height: 6'0", Weight: 205

Position: C

DOB: 8/16/1992

Bats: R, Throws: R

Prev. drafted: Never

 

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 40 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

 

(2014 stats) 218ab .364/.462/.606 9hr 51rbi 21(2b) 2(3b) 32bb 24so

 

After spending his first two college seasons at first base, Joe made the move behind the plate during the summer in the Cape Cod League and was named an All-Star in the elite summer college circuit.

 

During his junior year, Joe saw some time behind the plate for the Toreros, while also playing first base and right field. He has the skills to stick as a backstop, with a solid average arm and quick release. He's very athletic and runs well for a catcher or first baseman. He doesn't get cheated at the plate, and his combination of bat speed and strength should mean he hits for average and some power at the next level.

 

Joe's value obviously is higher if he's behind the plate, and the team that believes he can develop there will take him in the first few rounds.

 

Baseball America:

 

102. Connor Joe, C/1B/OF, San Diego

 

Joe’s calling card is his flat, line-drive stroke, which makes him a doubles machine (he ranked fifth in Division I with 21 doubles through 12 weeks). He has a patient, all-fields approach and has walked more than he’s struck out in each of his last two seasons. Joe projects as a solid-average to above-average hitter with a chance for average righthanded power in his compact 6-foot, 205-pound frame. His bat won’t be special if he winds up at first base (where he has spent most of his college career), but he could provide serious value if he can stick behind the plate. Joe started catching last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he caught in the all-star game, and he has split time between catcher, first base and the outfield this spring. He’s learning the nuances of catching, from receiving to blocking to his footwork and transfer, and he needs plenty of refinement. But he has at least an average arm and a quick release. He was a middle infielder in high school, and he has good enough hands and agility to have a chance behind the plate.

 

[43211234]

Hoffman sounds like he just makes too much sense.

 

Potential top of the draft arm with a chance of an underslot deal? Definitely a risk worth to take.

[flafson]

Handsome Monica, haha. His parents are crazy that's for sure.

[Daniel Labude]

Hope we go with both Touki and Hoffman