2014 MLB Draft: An Early Look

[ace3113]

Kiley Minogue's Mock Draft:

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1403161.html

 

1. Houston - Carlos Rodon, LHP

 

ANALYSIS: The Astros decision has been narrowed down to Rodon and Aiken, but it's far from decided right now. We didn't learn who the Astros chose with their last two #1 overall picks until they announced it and, in both cases, the final decision wasn't made until the last few days before the draft, if not draft day itself. The Astros know the track record of #1 overall picks (read: top talent) is better than every other pick, but also aren't afraid to go below slot for the guy they want and won't shy from bucking industry consensus. The interesting decision here is to take the high school arm that checks every box and is the slight industry preference as the top talent or take the college arm with a high upside but lots yellow flags that are starting to add up. The industry perceives that Houston is feeling some heat about getting some results at the big league level soon and that will drive this decision with the talent basically a coin flip. GM Jeff Luhnow has seen Rodon pitch well a couple times down the stretch as his stuff has been better than it was early in the season. I would take Aiken here, in part because he'll likely be cheaper than Rodon (who is advised by Scott Boras), but this isn't a vacuum for Houston. Even those like me who are low on Rodon still think that, in a bad scenario, he's a league average starter and quickly, so it's hard to knock the decision.

 

2. Miami - Brady Aiken, LHP

3. Chicago W - Tyler Kolek - RHP

4. Chicago C - Aaron Nola, RHP

5. Minnesota - Nick Gordon, SS

6. Seattle - Jeff Hoffman, RHP

7. Philadelphia - Bradley Zimmer, OF

8. Colorado - Kyle Freeland, LHP

 

9. Toronto - Trea Turner, SS

 

ANALYSIS: The Jays have been tied to a number of players. I linked them to Florida prep talents Touki Toussaint, Sean Reid-Foley and Nick Gordon months ago and two of those are still on the board here. Hoffman shouldn't get past their 2nd pick at #11 if he makes it that far. Turner, Jackson, Holmes, Newcomb and Pentecost have all been mentioned as well and Finnegan could be a fit if his velo bounces back. The thinking here is to take whoever you're worried the Mets might take at #10, which narrows it down to Turner and Jackson. The Jays are in on both but I've got them opting to take the late-surging Turner, as the Jays tend to prefer up the middle athletes.

 

10. New York M - Alex Jackson, OF

 

11. Toronto - Grant Holmes, RHP

 

ANALYSIS: Toussaint, Reid-Foley and Holmes are the likely targets here, keeping with the Jays preference for high ceiling prep arms. I've got Holmes as the choice, but it could be any of the three, with the Jays particularly high on Toussaint.

[Frenchsoup]

I wonder what happened to Trenton Kemp. There's virtually no buzz about him this spring. He's a really athletic five tool guy who just switched from football to baseball a year ago. Had a really good showing at the PG National. Reminds me a little of Hunter Pence. I could see someone taking him in a signable round. Just surprised he hasn't been mentioned much.

 

he's got a sweet little swing

[GD]

If we pass on Alex Jackson I swear to god.

[Angrioter]

If we pass on Alex Jackson I swear to god.

 

Jackson isn't Bryce Harper. Nick Gordon is the best offensive player.

 

Schwaber > Conforto?

[z3r0s]

Jackson isn't Bryce Harper. Nick Gordon is the best offensive player.

 

Schwaber > Conforto?

 

I've been interested in Gordon from early on, but I think he's going too high now for us to worry about him.

[SpeedyGose]

KLaw second mock draft today

 

Sigh...two more pitchers. I was really hoping Conforto would fall to us, looking unlikely at this point

[GD]

Jackson isn't Bryce Harper. Nick Gordon is the best offensive player.

 

Schwaber > Conforto?

 

Disagree and disagree.

[imsorry4beatinU]

Who would be your ideal #9 and #11 picks that'll get you flapping?

[Frenchsoup]

i would love Nola/Gordon at 9 and Hoffman under slot at 11

[TwistedLogic]

If we pass on Alex Jackson I swear to god.

 

Baseball America now has him going 2nd overall. Don't see a scenario in which he falls to the Jays.

 

Who would be your ideal #9 and #11 picks that'll get you flapping?

 

#9 will depend heavily on what has already been taken off the board, but expect a lot of decent options at that pick. Hoffman at #11, and it's not close (barring any ridiculous unforeseen drops).

[TwistedLogic]

i would love Nola/Gordon at 9 and Hoffman under slot at 11

 

I really like what I've read about Nola, but Gordon is not making it past the 5th pick unless someone drops. Still don't see him making it to #9, regardless.

[imsorry4beatinU]

Imagine the MLB lets you trade your draft picks inside the 5 rounds.

[TwistedLogic]

Imagine the MLB lets you trade your draft picks inside the 5 rounds.

 

I'm very happy that they don't. Teams like the Rays and Cardinals would win every world series.

[ace3113]

Pefect Game draft chat:

 

Comment From Bret

Are teams concerned about the health of Luis Ortiz and Scott Blewett?

 

Jheremy Brown:

Teams are involved with looking at any player they draft, especially when it's a premium pick with where Blewett and Ortiz could land. I was told Blewett is back now and was up to 95 with the fastball

 

Comment From Andy

What are you hearing about Mac Marshall and where he may end up getting drafted?

 

Frankie Piliere:

I think he's a real nice fit in the first compensation round. Someone could step up in the back of the first though. He's really developed his secondaries to an advanced level this spring.

 

Comment From Aaron Greenfield

Where do you think Marcus Wilson from Serra (California) will go? Which round specifically?

 

Todd Gold:

Hey Aaron, his upside and the lack of potential impact position prospects in the 2014 class gives him a chance to sneak into the back of the first round. Though I would expect the compensation first or early second round to be his most likely range.

 

Comment From Ringo

Do you think Jacob Gatewood suffers from prospect fatigue already? He has been under a spotlight for a long time. Are experts just looking for his flaws at this point?

 

Frankie Piliere:

No i think the process has been very fair to him. We were introduced to him, were blown away by some of the raw tools, then saw some of his struggles in game action. Those struggles were significant, not nitpicking. But, to his credit, he has made some small adjustments this spring. He still has to make more adjustments, but I feel like scouts finally have a handle on what to make of him.

 

Comment From Ringo

The pitching in this draft class seems impeccable. Do you think that influences decision making? (i.e.- Grab a bat early then stack pitching later?) or do teams generally see the good pitching early and grab what they can?

 

Todd Gold:

Good question. It depends on just how highly each individual organization values the top remaining arm on their board at the time of their pick. The quality of options that a club expects to be available at the next pick will be taken into consideration for nearly every club when they weight their options in the first round, it may sway a decision or two.

 

Comment From Rich

Do you think Max Pentacost's skills are solid enough to easily translate to Big League play?

 

Frankie Piliere:

I'm not sure there's a player in the whole class that I'm more confident can do that. He's going to catch, he can run, and he has a simple, line drive approach. He's going to translate just fine.

 

Comment From John

What's you take on Tyler Beede?

 

Patrick Ebert:

Great upside, as he has 3 plus pitches in his fastball, curveball and changeup. However, he hasn't put the entire package together yet and still struggles with command. If the right coach at the pro level is able to get him to do just that, he has a pretty high upside, but that command thing does remain a big if.

 

Comment From Oren

What's your opinion on Gareth Morgan? The power is intriguing, but I've read a lot of questions about the hit tool.

 

Jheremy Brown:

The hit tool was a question but he began to answer this spring against some pretty good competition when he was in Arizona with the Langley Blaze playing against minor league competition. The power of course is undeniable and it has started to play more in game, along with the hit tool, due to better pitch recognition and keeping himself in hitter's counts. He's highly athletic and has begun to make the adjustments in the box you'd be hoping to see.

 

Comment From Rob

Are people focusing too much on Grant Holmes' size?

 

Frankie Piliere:

I think it has to be brought up. But, if he was 6-4 we'd be talking about where he'd go in the top 5. The lack of the prototype frame is about the only knock on him. He does everything else well. If you watch him enough and watch how he works an AB and turns over a lineup you start overlooking the size. And, it's not like he's 5-10, he's over 6 feet.

 

Comment From Bret

Is Tyler Beede in jeopardy of falling out of the first round?

 

Frankie Piliere:

I've heard people say it's possible but I just do not buy it. Ryne Stanek stayed in the first round last year. So Beede is staying too. I know that's not a scientific reasoning, but his stuff is just too good to go outside of the first round.

 

Jheremy Brown:

The command was the concern, which in retrospect leads back to the delivery. Although this spring the command has really been much less a concern, limiting his walked in every outing. So the answer to your question would be no

 

Comment From Jasper

What's the word on Touki's command? Has it improved enough for him to go top 10?

 

Frankie Piliere:

It's definitely improved. Anyone expecting him to be a guy who ever has excellent command is probably going to be disappointed though. It's improved to an acceptable, effectively wild type level this spring though. I could consider him in the top 10

Comment From Ringo

Question for all writers who want to answer... Who is your favorite prospect in this class? not necessarily the one you think is best, but the one you like the most.

 

Patrick Ebert:

I think both Medeiros and Ortiz are among the PG staff's collective favorites. I'm going with Kyle Scwarber. The guy's a beast, and also think Michael Chavis is going to hit in the big leagues for a long time.

 

Comment From Ringo

Who are some of the biggest risk/reward players outside of the top 30?

 

Patrick Ebert:

Jacob Bukauskas is probably the biggest such player, ranked at 36. Kodi Medeiros at 32, only because he hasn't thrown a ton of innings, or at least is one of the more difficult players to see pitch. Michael Cederoth has one of the biggest arms in this year's draft, but may profile as a one-inning bullpen guy. Bryce Montes de Oca is another obvious one for his stuff and stuff, but it's hard to know what you're getting with him since he missed all of last year due to injury.

 

Comment From kevin

Thoughts on Arkansas 2b Brian Anderson? Where could he end up?

 

Frankie Piliere:

I'm the resident Brian Anderson fan here so I'm glad someone asked about him. One of the quickest bats in the country, has positional flexibility, plus runner, plus athlete. I think he goes in the second round area. I think we could look back and see that as a steal though. I think here's more power coming as well.

 

Comment From Douglas

Any first-risers jumping up draft boards and into first-50 pick consideration we should hear about?

 

Patrick Ebert:

Most of our rankings have been adjusted to reflect these late risers, but Garrett Fulenchek, Cody Reed, Justin Steele and Mitch Keller from the prep ranks, as well as Jacob Lindgren and Jake Stinnett from college, are among some of the more notable late risers this spring.

 

Comment From Ryan, O-town

Does catcher Jakson Reetz have a chance to be the highest drafted Nebraska HS player ever?

 

Patrick Ebert:

Ryan, Reetz definitely has a chance to be the highest drafted prep player from Nebraska, although it probably will be close as he's expected to go in the top 2-3 rounds, and I believe the highest NE prep player went in round 3.

 

Comment From Danny

Player that in your mind should be drafted in the first round, but likely won't be ?

 

Patrick Ebert:

That's a tough question Danny just because we often joke internally that we've had people outside the organization tell us about 60-90 players that are likely first-rounders. I think the top 20 picks are fairly settled, but after that there are roughly 30-40 players in play for the next 10-15 picks. I will say that I think Justus Sheffield has some of the best pitchability I've seen at the HS level and think he could be a guy we all wonder how he didn't go int the first round 2-3 years down the road.

 

Comment From Louis

Sean Reid Foley is boringly consistent and you've mocked him at 18 to Nationals, what's the chance that his boring consistency increases the chance of getting drafted higher?

 

Patrick Ebert:

I think the chances are very high Louis. We've heard of teams in the 8-15 range that have him on their radar.

 

Comment From Josh

What do you think of Michael Chavis' bat going forward? And where will he end up defensively? Any truth to the catching rumors?

 

Todd Gold:

Good question Josh. It is an intriguing idea to put a player with that kind of offensive upside at a premium position. While I've never seen him catch, he does have the physical ability to potentially make that transition, though it would be a long process.

 

The bat would make the time commitment necessary to learn a difficult new position a tough one to make, though the potential payoff is quite high. In my opinion he's the best present hitter in this HS class and I wouldn't be surprised if he moves quickly as a 3B/2B prospect.

 

The catcher idea is intriguing, I think it probably makes more sense to keep him at a more natural position with the idea that his bat will dictate his pace and be the focal point of his development through the minors. But it's sure fun to think about what kind of value that bat would provide as a catcher.

 

Comment From Mark

Thoughts on where Tyler Beede will go? 10-15 range?

 

Kendall Rogers:

Patrick Ebert: That's probably a pretty safe bet, maybe 15-20. The thing about Tyler is the upside for him is off the charts, but there's no doubt his lack of command concerns me. Saw him last weekend in the SEC tournament and he just couldn't consistently command his offerings. When he does, though, he's ridiculously good. I will say, I think there's a much better chance of TB figuring it out than there is of him continuing to have command issues.

 

Comment From Danny

I know you guys don't like player comps, however, are there any obvious ones that make sense to you all ?

 

Patrick Ebert:

I don't think we don't like player comps, we just always warn about expectations when using them. Prince Fielder to Kyle Schwarber, Marcus Wilson to Erik Davis, Michael Conforto to Geoff Jenkins and Touki Toussaint to Dwight Gooden are three obvious ones that stand out to me.

 

Comment From Louis

Is the Hit Tool the only thing keeping Michael Gettys from being drafted in the top 10-15? Is there any chance whatsoever that a team would seriously draft him as a pitcher?

 

Todd Gold:

Yes, everything else toolswise is elite. He could still go that high too. I think orgs view him a a pitching prospect also, but whoever pulls the trigger on him in the 1st round is doing so as a position prospect.

 

Comment From Danny

Karsten Whitson looked fantastic the other day against LSU, any idea where that puts his draft stock ?

 

Frankie Piliere:

I think he may have put himself back in the top 3 round picture. You can bet he'll be watched closely in the Gainesville regional

 

Kendall Rogers:

To add to what Frankie said, Whitson was consistently 92-95 in that game, a lot of 94-95s in the first four frames. SL was hard at 87-88, and good. I was blown away at how good he looked.

 

Comment From Mark Ryans

Milton Ramos round projection? What do you see in him tools wise?

 

Patrick Ebert:

There are a couple of Milton Ramos questions in the hopper, so I'll take this one and attempt to answer both questions. Ramos stands out for his silky-smooth defense at shortstop, obviously a premium position. He played alongside Nick Gordon on the travel ball circuit for FTB, and the two would frequently flip-flop between SS and 2B, with some debating who was the better defender. I think he goes in the 2nd round for his defense alone, as he would be discussed more for the late 1st if team's believed in his bat more. The bat could come as he's pretty lean and wiry right now, but who knows what will happen with added strength?

 

Comment From Ringo

Which draft prospects look like the best fantasy baseball hitters?

 

Patrick Ebert:

I'm guessing you're looking at the group of guys with the safest bet to hit at the next level Ringo. That includes Brad Zimmer, Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber and Casey Gillaspie among the college guys and Michael Chavis, Braxton Davidson and Forrest Wall among the prep guys.

 

Comment From Oren

Is Trea Turner going to hit in the big leagues?

 

Frankie Piliere:

Yes. I wavered a little on this early spring, but I've seen him adjust to how pitchers were attacking him inside. He's an adaptable player who gets what pitchers are doing to him. Those guys usually end up hitting.

 

Comment From Guest

what position do you see for jack flaherty?

 

Todd Gold:

Right handed starting pitcher. If he goes to college he'll play 3B as well but as a 2014 draft prospect he's a pitcher all the way.

 

Comment From Frank

thoughts on Luke Bonfield after this spring? where do you see him going?

 

Todd Gold:

It's a very good hit tool. If he doesn't go in the early rounds this year and gets to Arkansas I could see him tearing it up in the SEC which is a good way to become a high pick in 2017. Will be interesting to see if someone jumps up and prevents that from happening this year on day 2.

 

Comment From Guest

thanks todd. what round do you see flaherty going in?

 

Todd Gold:

That's a tough one since there are some moving parts to his profile. For one thing he'll have to be bought out of a highly attractive opportunity to come in and make a big contribution right away at UNC. Also, there are a ton of power arms in this draft class, and while he has (in my opinion) the best command of any HS arm, he lacks the power stuff that most teams look for in a first round pick, so it comes down to projection. My guess is he's a second rounder, though if he's not interested in signing for second round money then he will slide to the late rounds or go undrafted.

 

Comment From Victor Rivera

Best prospect from Puerto Rico?

 

Todd Gold:

In my mind it's SS Alexis Pantojas (outstanding defender) by a mile. Sounds like Roy Morales has a shot to usurp him as the first PR player drafted though, we'll see.

Edited May 29, 2014 by ace3113

[GD]

I would be okay with Max Pentacost. He's not my #1 option, or even #2, but I would be perfectly fine if we ended up with him somehow. I think he's going to be successful.

[Frenchsoup]

well..s***

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/morrows-progress-vital-for-jays-future-success/

 

What does that WAR chest mean?

[Frenchsoup]

Pretty sure he's referring to the amount of money we have to spend.

 

Meaning, this year we won't have as much money to spend at he draft, because "money is tight".

 

Jesus Christ

 

That is dumb, ROGERS money guy is an idiot

[Angrioter]

Comment From Danny

I know you guys don't like player comps, however, are there any obvious ones that make sense to you all ?

 

Patrick Ebert:

I don't think we don't like player comps, we just always warn about expectations when using them. Prince Fielder to Kyle Schwarber, Marcus Wilson to Erik Davis, Michael Conforto to Geoff Jenkins and Touki Toussaint to Dwight Gooden are three obvious ones that stand out to me.

 

What?

[43211234]

All I really care about is getting Hoffman. If the Jays pick him up, they could do anything else for the rest of the draft and I'll be happy -- which is pretty much how I felt about Giolito as well. In the perfect world, they'll pick Hoffman, and do so with the 11th pick. There's a lot of guys that I like at 9, so I'm hoping that they go with BPA instead of tunneling on a player and over-reaching, something that they haven't been unfamiliar with in recent years.

 

I melted when Giolito got taken by the Nationals. He had been falling and falling and it was cruel for him to go one pick before the Blue Jays

[TwistedLogic]

I melted when Giolito got taken by the Nationals. He had been falling and falling and it was cruel for him to go one pick before the Blue Jays

 

Exactly. Was crushing to see Giolito fall that far and then get picked right before the Jays selection. Felt the same way when, after weeks of rumors tying the Jays with Meadows, once again, he got picked by the Pirates just one selection before the Jays. Seems like a running theme (happened in 2008 when the Brewers took Lawrie right before the Jays and Toronto ended up with Cooper), so I'm hoping that trend somehow gets bucked. If we can walk away with Hoffman with the 11th (compensation for Bickford), I'll feel a lot better about losing Meadows.

[TwistedLogic]

Come to think of it, there might just be some sort of drafting curse on the Blue Jays. Since the Jays drafted Aaron Hill in 2003, every single year outside of 2011 (where we failed to sign Beede), the team drafting right before the Jays has gotten an MLB-regular or a player currently considered to be a great prospect, while every single one of the Jays picks over that time (through 2010) have either flamed out, or been a complete bust. It's a very random, strange and unfortunate trend, but check it out...

 

2003 - The Toronto Blue Jays select future All-Star, Aaron Hill

2004 - The Diamondbacks select Stephen Drew (15), right before the Blue Jays select David Purcey (16).

2005 - The Brewers select Ryan Braun (5), right before the Blue Jays select Ricky Romero (6)

2006 - The Cubs select Tyler Colvin (13), right before the Blue Jays select Travis Snider (14)

2007 - The Reds select Devin Mesoraco (15), right before the Blue Jays select Kevin Ahrens (16)

2008 - The Brewers select Brett Lawrie (16), right before the Blue Jays select David Cooper (17)

2009 - The Cardinals select Shelby Miller (19), right before the Blue Jays select Chad Jenkins (20)

2010 - The Athletics select Michael Choice (10), right before the Blue Jays select Deck McGuire (11)

2011 - The Toronto Blue Jays select and fail to sign Tyler Beede

2012 - The Nationals select Lucas Giolito (16), right before the Blue Jays select DJ Davis (17)

2013 - The Pirates select Austin Meadows (09), right before the Blue Jays select Phil Bickford (10)

[KingKat]

Come to think of it, there might just be some sort of drafting curse on the Blue Jays. Since the Jays drafted Aaron Hill in 2003, every single year outside of 2011 (where we failed to sign Beede), the team drafting right before the Jays has gotten an MLB-regular or a player currently considered to be a great prospect, while every single one of the Jays picks over that time (through 2010) have either flamed out, or been a complete bust. It's a very random, strange and unfortunate trend, but check it out...

 

2003 - The Toronto Blue Jays draft Aaron Hill (All-Star)

2004 - The Diamondbacks select Stephen Drew (15), right before the Blue Jays select David Purcey (16).

2005 - The Brewers select Ryan Braun (5), right before the Blue Jays select Ricky Romero (6)

2006 - The Cubs select Tyler Colvin (13), right before the Blue Jays select Travis Snider (14)

2007 - The Reds select Devin Mesoraco (15), right before the Blue Jays select Kevin Ahrens (16)

2008 - The Brewers select Brett Lawrie (16), right before the Blue Jays select David Cooper (17)

2009 - The Cardinals select Shelby Miller (19), right before the Blue Jays select Chad Jenkins (20)

2010 - The Athletics select Michael Choice (10), right before the Blue Jays select Deck McGuire (11)

2011 - The Toronto Blue Jays select and fail to sign Tyler Beede

2012 - The Nationals select Lucas Giolito (16), right before the Blue Jays select DJ Davis (17)

2013 - The Pirates select Austin Meadows (09), right before the Blue Jays select Phil Bickford (10)

 

I wonder how many of those were on the Jays radar. In 2007, just about every mock had the Jays selecting Mesoraco and in 2008, it was thought the Jays would draft Wallace or Lawrie if either of them fell to them. I don't remember how closely linked they were to any of those other guys.

[z3r0s]

I wonder how many of those were on the Jays radar. In 2007, just about every mock had the Jays selecting Mesoraco and in 2008, it was thought the Jays would draft Wallace or Lawrie if either of them fell to them. I don't remember how closely linked they were to any of those other guys.

 

I also don't think you can complain about Snider over Colvin, despite how Lunchbox turned out.

[KingKat]

I also don't think you can complain about Snider over Colvin, despite how Lunchbox turned out.

 

Choice isn't really a big deal either. That still left Trout on the board which was the real issue with that draft.

[TwistedLogic]

I wonder how many of those were on the Jays radar. In 2007, just about every mock had the Jays selecting Mesoraco and in 2008, it was thought the Jays would draft Wallace or Lawrie if either of them fell to them. I don't remember how closely linked they were to any of those other guys.

 

I wasn't implying they were linked to them anyways, I doubt they were linked to all of them, was just pointing out the strangeness of the trend.

 

I also don't think you can complain about Snider over Colvin, despite how Lunchbox turned out.

 

I wouldn't complain about it, but Colvin has still been twice as good as Snider over his career, in 200 fewer PAs.

 

Choice isn't really a big deal either. That still left Trout on the board which was the real issue with that draft.

 

Choice has been bad so far this year, but he's still been a great prospect for a long time, and he can still end up a contributor. Can't imagine anyone would rather have McGuire over him.

[KingKat]

I wasn't implying they were linked to them anyways, I doubt they were linked to all of them, was just pointing out the strangeness of the trend.

 

 

 

I wouldn't complain about it, but Colvin has still been twice as good as Snider over his career, in 200 fewer PAs.

 

 

 

Choice has been bad so far this year, but he's still been a great prospect for a long time, and he can still end up a contributor. Can't imagine anyone would rather have McGuire over him.

 

I like Choice. He's definitely not a guy to write off and McGuire certainly is.

[ace3113]

Hey King, can you post Bowden's article?

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=9471

[Angrioter]

2005

Great s*** sandwich:

 

Bread with sesame <--------The Brewers select Ryan Braun (5)

s*** <--------The Blue Jays select Ricky Romero (6)

Bread <-------- The Colorado Rockies Troy Tulowitzki (7)

[ace3113]

Your boy Stone Garrett aka Phil Ervin 2.0, King:

 

 

 

This guy Justin Steele apparently has a lot of late buzz according to Perfect Game.

 

[GD]

Sounds about right. My money is on Turner/Hoffman.