2014 MLB Draft: An Early Look

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-chat-with-john-manuel/

 

2014 Draft Update Chat With John Manuel

 

Jimmy (Florida): What are you guys hearing on Gatewood? Is he still likely to go in the 1st round or could he drop a bit?

 

John Manuel: We’re still hearing him as a first-rounder, because of the body, the power potential, the fact he’s an infielder … those are all still in his favor. Just not hearing as much about Gatewood as one of the top HS bats anymore. Certainly could see a team still banking on the track record early; he does seem to fit the bill of what the Phillies do, and they pick No. 7 overall. Philly likes prep athletes and banks on upside. He has top 10 picks upside. But I think the industry consensus is he’ll go out later in the first round.

 

Mary Ramirez (Humboldt County, California): Given the Giants penchant for spending their first pick on players often perceived as non-first rounders (e.g., Panik, Brown, and Arroyo), is it safe to say, given their draft position this year, the Giants are likely to pick a player widely recognized as a "worthy" first round guy? Thanks!

 

John Manuel: John Barr and I have shared a few laughs over the Christian Arroyo business last year, and I would agree with you that Panik is similar, but Gary Brown had first-round tools and doesn’t fit into that same comparison. That said, the Giants draft the way they draft. They aren’t looking at consensus picks, they are looking at their board, and picking 14th, there probably will be some value there in a high school arm. Everything we’re hearing is, college pitching is pretty strong this year, and college pitchers are going to be stuffed up a lot of teams’ boards. That might leave a Grant Holmes or Touki Toussaint or Sean Reid-Foley at 14 for the Ninja, Dick Tidrow, and Barr to select and shape into another future Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner.

 

Andrew VU '04 (Baton Rouge, LA): With his recent spate of bad starts, how far has Tyler Beede's draft stock fallen? Or are MLB evaluators focusing largely on his arm talent and viewing this as a blip on the radar?

 

John Manuel: We do hear Beede was probably a shade high at No. 6 in our Midseason Update. He seems to be in a bad groove right now; when he throws strikes, he gets hit, or he has one of those 5-walk outings. His command lags behind his control. The pitch that has really caught scouts’ attention is the improvement in his changeup, but it feels like he’s more of a 6-10 pick overall rather than a threat to go in the first five selections. I don’t believe he’ll fall into the second half, barring injury, just because there is so much to work with there.

 

Will (San Francisco): Luke Weaver has been showing well recently. With a plus fastball with life, a plus changeup, plus command, how high could weaver go, and do you have a good comp for him?

 

John Manuel: First, I’m a big fan of @DreamWeava7, and we had a good video of him from his latest start, at Wake Forest, that is under the video tab on BaseballAmerica.com if you want to see it. Our reports on him are not as sanguine. The fastball does have life, but I think it’s tough to call it a plus fastball. His walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down. I believe he will go out higher than where we had him, which was in the supplemental range. But he’s a smallish RHP with the breaking ball as his third-best pitch. That’s just not a tremendous profile. You’re betting on the athleticism and pitchability if you’re taking him in the first round. Maybe he’s a Mike Leake type but I don’t quite see him as being at that level.

 

Dino (Chi-town, NORTH side.): Hey John, thanks for the chat! Jedi (really Theo) is gonna take a pitcher at No. 4 right? Given this draft is pitcher-heavy, and the relative lack of arms in our system compared with our positional depth, this seems pretty obvious. One of Hoffman, Beede, Rodon, Aiken, Kolek is gonna be there.

 

John Manuel: We thought the same thing last year, when the Cubs picked No. 2 overall, but they wound up going with a hitter in Kris Bryant. That said, there is not a Bryant in this draft, and this pitcher class is stronger than it was last year. Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod were all in town last week to see both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Rodon, so both are in play, as potentially are Aiken and Kolek as you said. I can see Aaron Nola being in that mix, though he’s more in the Mike Leake mold, and I believe Kyle Freeland, Erick Fedde and Brandon Finnegan also could be in that mix at No. 4. None of those guys would stun me at No. 4, though I would at this point be a bit surprised by Beede at that spot.

 

Maryanna (San Francisco): Grant Holmes has been thought of highly for a long time. reports have started showing him listed at 6-2, did he recently grow? If so, wouldnt that shoot him into the top 5 picks or so? i thought the only knock on him was his height, as his arsenal is complete....

 

John Manuel: That’s a funny one. The listed heights and weights of these players is the subject of much discussion here at BA. He’s listed at 6-2, 210 pounds in what we have as his “official” list. We have him in our database as 6-0, 216 pounds, and we use measurements from Area Code Games, East Coast Pro or Team USA where applicable. That has been disputed, and I even got a picture of Grant sent to me the other day sent to me contending he’s taller than 6-0. I’d say he’s likely 6-1, 6-3 if we game him credit for the hair. More important than joking around about his hair, he throws downhill, he has big-time stuff … I don’t think the difference between 6-0 and 6-2 is why he’s lower. If he were 6-4 vs. 6-0, that’s a bigger deal. He’s not 6-4 even with the mini-fro. But he’s in the mix to be the third prep pitcher drafted and could go in the first 10 picks overall, and I think he’s a lock to go top 15-20.

 

Will (St Louis): Touki Toussaint has huge potential with a plus plus fastball and a hammer curve, but he has a tendency to be erratic. Some have him as a top ten pick while others see him slipping out of the frist round. Where does he end up?

 

John Manuel: Sums him up fairly well, though I wouldn’t put 70 on his fastball, and the changeup was quite good at NHSI. The body, with long arms and big hands, and athleticism are other plusses for Touki. There is a difference of opinion on him because he hasn’t been consistent with his strike-throwing and with the quality of his secondary stuff. But we have him slightly ahead of Holmes as the No. 3 prep pitcher right now because of the upside potential. There could be a fit or two in the first 10 picks; his upside fits what teams like the Phillies and also Blue Jays are looking for.

 

G.G. (New York): John, what is Alex Jackson's ceiling/floor in terms of when he'll be selected? Seems like Houston and Miami need pitching more than hitting, but CWS could use everything. On the pessimistic side, could he fall out of the top 10?

 

John Manuel: In this draft class, Jackson’s power and offensive ability stand out. I don’t see him falling out of the first 10 picks. I think he’s in play anywhere in the first 10 selections, frankly. He can hit, he’s athletic, he has a lengthy track record (particularly for a high school player) and he could remain at a premium position.

 

Justin (Missouri): Are Carlos Rodon's "struggles" a serious concern? Given his past success, wouldn't he be the safe #1 in this class? Is he still considered a potential ace?

 

John Manuel: We discussed Carlos at some length in the recent Draft podcast, which I would recommend (seeing as how I co-hosted it). The short version is that he is still considered a potential ace, I believe he is not as safe as Brady Aiken, who has better fastball command and is as polished even though he’s a high school player. I talked to an evaluator yesterday who compared Rodon to Jeremy Affeldt, which was a first. The lack of fastball command, the consistent struggle with that, is a concern. But at his best, Rodon is the best player in this class. He just hasn’t been at his best this year; he throws a lot of sliders; and he’s physically mature. So those are issues for the teams evaluating him.

 

Andrew (St Louis): How good is Nick Gordon? Dee is finally hitting enough to be productive at the major league level but Nick is supposed to be a more polished hitter and with some pop. Is this an upton like situation where the younger brother ends up being the far more complete and productive player?

 

John Manuel: It feels like a lot of teams and scouts are asking themselves that question. Some scouts question how much Nick will impact the baseball at the plate, while others see a guy who uses the whole field, runs well, can play a premium position and can learn how to pull the ball as he gains strength and matures physically. It certainly does not hurt that his older brother is playing better than ever at the big league level at this point. I’m not going to put the Gordons in an Upton category, those guys were picked No. 2 and No. 1 overall … just not the same.

 

Lance (Charlottesville): Could Derek Fisher be the "steal" of this draft if teams are low on him due to the hamate surgery recovery? It seems a little narrow-minded to drop a guy a few rounds because of his immediate potential when teams should be thinking long-term.

 

John Manuel: I don’t know that he’ll fall that far; hamate surgery isn’t a long-term concern. We dropped him down our list mostly due to the fact that he was out of sight, out of mind for a few weeks, but we kept him in the top 50 and I can still see him as a first-round pick. Just comparing him to Michael Conforto, the other LH-hitting corner bat in this draft, Conforto has contributed more and produced more over the course of his career and has been a bit better hitter. But I can see scouts liking Fisher more; he’s a bit more athletic, and he plays in a very favorable pitcher’s park. I like Fisher; I can’t shake the home run I saw him hit to LCF off Rodon as a freshman, it was a very good look. Fisher’s going to be scrutinized down the stretch as much as anyone now that he’s back, having returned Sunday against North Carolina.

Brandon (San Diego): Will Alex Jackson folllow the likes of Will Meyers and Bryce Harper and move from behind the plate due to the advanced bat? Is he at that level where it warrants moving him from behind the dish?

 

John Manuel: That’s possible but I don’t believe he has the explosiveness offensively those two guys have. I do see him moving to RF as a possibility because the bat is advanced, but I haven’t talked to a scout who puts him in the same power category as those two.

 

Tom (Central Illinois): The Cardinals have few holes...BUT, once Molina is done they seem to have no plan. Is this the draft they take his replacement? Carson Kelly can't be the answer, can it?

 

John Manuel: I don’t know who the answer is but finding another Yadier Molina, I’m sure the Cardinals know, will be very, very difficult. I do believe the Cardinals are aware of this, however, and have been trying to address it, and will try again. But you can’t skew your draft board just to force a guy into the “need” your organization has. But if, say, Max Pentecost is there at 27 … yeah, that would make sense.

 

Steve (LA): John, thanks for the chat. Hypothetically speaking, what is your opinion of draft pick trading? Seems like it would make more sense in a non-salary cap sport. Surely some of the "wealthier" teams would consider giving a good MLB piece for a top 5 pick, especially in a deep draft like this one. In turn it would help squads like the Marlins become more competitive. Or do you not see it as a good idea given the bottom-feeders probably would not be able to retain the MLB studs when their contracts are up? (No 1. pick - 6+ years of control, MLB player - ?)

 

John Manuel: I’ve never been a huge fan of trading draft picks; other leagues trade draft picks because they do not have minor league systems. To me, minor league players are better assets than draft picks. But with the current system, we see how much teams value their draft selections because of the bonus pools that come with those slots. I do think the current system setup would make sense to allow trades of draft spots, which already happens in the comp round and with international bonus pools. We’ve seen that those have value, and we see how much teams value those with regard to free agents. In fact, they’re probably over-valued. I think we’re headed in the direction of draft picks being traded.

 

Michael S. (Evansville, IN): What range do you see LHP Kyle Freeland going around? Is he picking up momentum around scouts, assistant GMs, and GMs?

 

John Manuel: Freeland does have momentum, and I could see him going very high. For me, he’d have to be in play at any spot in the first 10 selections. I don’t think he’s the right fit at No. 1 overall, but it’s not outlandish. He has stuff, command and a good pro body, plus he’s from Colorado, and I have an irrational fetish for tall pitchers from Colorado (I blame Roy Halladay, Brad Lidge, Kevin Gausman, Mark Melancon … I could go on). And no college pitcher has performed like Freeland this season when you look at his K-BB ratio.

 

Teddy (Orlando): Hey John -- Florida has some interesting junior hitters with Taylor Gushue, Casey Turgeon, Justin Shafer and Braden Mattson. Which of that group do you see getting drafted high enough to leave and which come back?

 

John Manuel: Gushue’s power potential and the fact he’s a catcher makes him the top guy out of that crew. The rest of those guys don’t stand out in the same way and feel more like senior signs.

 

Greg (ohio): How are Twins gonna resist temptation of Aaron Nola at pick #5?

 

John Manuel: Ha, they do love strike-throwers. That said, Freeland throws as many strikes, is lefthanded and has more stuff. The Twins have prioritized velocity in recent drafts and that points them away from Nola, but I don’t think Nola would be out of place at No. 5 either. He does more with his fastball than the majority of college pitchers. Erick Fedde would not be totally out of place there either, and is another guy with the combination of velocity and fastball command to interested Deron Johnson, Mike Radcliff & Co.

 

Mick (Chicago): Has Trea Turner fell to the 20's in the 1st round w/ his poor offense and reduced 80 to 60 speed?

 

John Manuel: He’s not a 60 runner. He may not be a consistent 80 runner anymore, but he’s not a 60 runner. He’s not falling that far. Too few college bats, his defense at SS has improved, and he still has impact speed. His SBs are down in part because he batted third for much of the first half of the season and often was clogged on the bases. I could not see him falling below Cincinnati at No. 19.

 

Steve (Michigan): Thanks for the chat. In a draft that seems to be lacking in college bats could you see guys like Jimmy Pickens and Blase Salter from Michigan State move up draft boards? How high could you see them going? Salter seems like he is a hitting machine with good power and Pickens seems like a toolsy prospect.

 

John Manuel: I was just talking to an evaluator about Michigan State, and got good reports on Pickens especially. Salter is raking but also is primarily a DH, rarely catching, and I think his 6-5, 240-pound body just lacks the athleticism to have him go out too high. Pickens can run some, he could fit on an outfield corner; he sounds like the best draft prospect on the Spartans’ roster.

 

Hammer (draft nerd): What are the chances Michael Chavis ends up being this year's Addison Russell?

 

John Manuel: I would not make that comparison in any way. Chavis can really hit, and both are righthanded bats. That’s about it.

 

Edgar (Chandler, AZ): Drafting 1st round pitchers, what do you believe is more important: velocity or location?

 

John Manuel: JJ Cooper is doing some research, and we can’t find a first-round pick for, I’m just thinking off the top of my head, I think JJ had gone back through the entire 21st Century, and every first-round pick pitcher had a fastball that at least reached 93 mph. So there’s a baseline of velocity necessary to be in the mix for the first round.

 

Chris (Virgina): I know UNC is having a tough year but where do you see some of their draft picks going....Russell, Lassiter, Moss, Cherry, Paula?

 

John Manuel: Moss is the top prospect out of that group, as long as scouts look past the full academic scholarship. Our information is that Moss is very interested in professional baseball, and at his best, he pitches off an average fastball with a plus curve and solid feel. Michael Russell feels like more of a senior sign but he’s hitting the heck out of the ball and keeps on performing, so I could see someone drafting him. I’m just not sure what his pro position will be; it won’t be shortstop. Cherry and Paula, well, neither has been very good the last two years. Cherry has a nice arm but his lack of athleticism is fairly jarring. I am a Landon Lassiter fan but he hasn’t hit great this season, and he is playing out of position at 3B, which works for him makeup-wise, because he’s doing what the team needs, but also hurts because it exposes his defensive shortcomings. Landon hits like an up the middle guy (and I am a fan of his swing), but he fields like a corner guy. Tough combo for an eligible sophomore.

 

Michael (Louisville): John, can AJ Reed from UK be the "pop-up" guy this year that goes in the 1st round?

 

John Manuel: He could hit his way into the first round. He leads the county in home runs, and he’s improved his body significantly this season. There are scouts who don’t love the swing or bat speed, but the bat-to-ball skills and strength are clearly enough for him to dominate at this level. I don’t see him in the first round yet but he certainly could continue to hit his way up draft boards.

 

Fonz (Milwaukee): There has been little buzz on Joey Pankake, which surprises me because (1) he has had 2.5 years of solid results, (2) he was reasonably well thought of entering this year, (3) he plays for a highly regarded program that is playing well this year, and (4) his name is "Pankake", and everyone loves pancakes. Where do you see Joey going in the draft, and does the glove/bat profile at SS or 3B to you?

 

John Manuel: I do love pancakes, but Pankake (1) played some LF this year, (2) hasn’t hit for much power this year and (3) has tremendous arm strength that some scouts want to see on the mound. Think of him as a less athletic Matt Chapman, and that lack of athleticism appears to be an issue. I think he’s more of a 3rd-rounder than a top pick.

[ace3113]

Jacob Bukauskas has scouts raving. Seems to be a late bloomer.

 

Definitely has the scouts drooling, but he's not really a late bloomer. He was well known for a while for the 2015 draft. He advanced his courses and reclassified this year so he ended up being eligible for the 2014 draft instead. I'm think he's the youngest player in the draft now.

[ace3113]

So I used Matt Garrioch's age spectrum based on Rany Jazayerli's earlier work:

 

2013-mlb-draft-draft-age-of-high-school-prospects

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15306

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

 

To rank the high school players in 2014 from "very young" to "very old" for their draft classes. Studies have shown that relative draft age has more bearing on position players than on pitchers. Unpolished position players who are old for their class are usually red flags now, however there are a few exceptions. Byron Buxton for one, was old for his class, although he ended up being more polished than people realized.

 

Anyway, here's the list of the top players based on ages.

 

Very Old

 

Cameron Varga, RHP: Aug. 19, 1994

Greg Deichmann, 2B/3B: May 31, 1995

Joseph Gatto, RHP: Jun. 14, 1995

Foster Griffin, LHP: July 27, 1995

Monte Harrison, OF: Aug. 10, 1995

Michael Chavis, 3B: Aug. 11, 1995

Jon Littell, OF: Aug. 16, 1995

Sean Reid-Foley, RHP: Aug. 30, 1995

Jacob Gatewood, 3B: Sept. 25, 1995

Jack Flaherty, OF/RHP: Oct. 15, 1995

Michael Gettys, OF: Oct. 22, 1995

Nick Gordon, SS: Oct. 24, 1995

Cobi Johnson, RHP: Nov. 6, 1995

Josh Morgan, SS: Nov. 16, 1995

 

Old

 

Forest Wall, 2B/OF: Nov. 20, 1995

Keith Weisenberg, RHP: Dec. 6, 1995

Tyler Kolek, RHP: Dec. 15, 1995

Alex Jackson, C/OF: Dec. 25, 1995

Dylan Cease, RHP: Dec. 28, 1995

Mac Marshall, LHP: Dec. 28, 1995

Derek Hill, OF: Dec. 30, 1995

Luis Ortiz, RHP: Dec. 30, 1995

Jakson Reetz, C/OF: Jan. 3, 1996

Keaton McKinney, RHP: Jan. 3, 1996

Jacob Nix, OF: Jan. 9, 1996

Alexis Pantojas, SS: Jan. 18, 1996

Jeren Kendall, OF: Feb. 4, 1996

Justin Smith, OF: Feb. 29, 1996

 

Average

 

Grant Holmes, RHP: March 22, 1996

Scott Blewet, RHP: Apr. 10, 1996

Gareth Morgan, OF: Apr. 12, 1996

Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP: Apr. 25 1996

Michael Kopech, RHP: Apr. 30, 1996

 

Young

 

Devon Fisher, C: May. 1, 1996

Justus Sheffield, LHP: May 13, 1996

Alex Verdugo, LHP/OF: May 15, 1996

Kodi Medeiros, LHP: May 25, 1996

Braxton Davidson, 1B/OF: June 18, 1996

Touki Toussaint, RHP: June 20, 1996

 

Very Young

 

Marcus Wilson, OF: Aug. 15, 1996

Brady Aiken, LHP: Aug. 16, 1996

Chase Vallot, C: Aug. 21, 1996

Ti'Quan Forbes, SS: Aug. 26, 1996

Jacob Bukauskas, RHP: Oct 11, 1996

[ace3113]

This guy fail grade 12 several times or what? '94s were the class of 2012 lol

 

Could be wrong, but that's what Perfect Game has on his scouting report. Some parents hold their kids back from entering school a year or two late in the States. Happens a lot especially in football hotbeds.

[ace3113]

Yeah for sure but damn..that's REALLY old.

 

Oldest guy in the draft I think. Three things he has going for him though are 1) He's a pitcher 2) He's pretty polished 3) He has now stuff that doesn't need a ton of projection.

 

Is it just me or does his stuff and delivery kind of remind you of Rich Harden?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq1_NDj3PDg

[ace3113]

He's going to absolutely destroy the lower levels of the minors. Damn I wish we picked higher

 

Hey King, do you think you can cover two more teams for the mock draft? You know pretty much all of the players in the top 50-100 so it should be a breeze for you.

 

 

Also Caper, you haven't chosen any teams to represent yet, we're not going 30 rounds but we need more GMs and scouting directors for the draft in May.

[ace3113]

Sigh...I look back nostalgically at when he was still projected around our pick.

So Cal lefty projects at No. 1

 

As the moment unwrapped in front of him at Petco Park in downtown San Diego during the early evening of August 11, Brady Aiken could not have imagined a more perfect place to be.

 

A star left-handed pitcher from nearby Cardiff by the Sea, Calif., Aiken had been selected to be the starting pitcher for the West team at the 11th annual Perfect Game All-American Classic presented by Rawlings. A crowd of more than 7,000 was on hand and television cameras from the MLB Network zoomed in on the action.

“That was definitely one of the highlights of my life,” Aiken told Perfect Game during a telephone conversation this week. “Just getting picked to play in that game is a complete honor, and then getting the start in my hometown in front of a bunch of family and friends meant a whole lot to me.

 

“It was really cool and I appreciate Perfect Game for everything they’ve done. Getting chosen for that game was an honor and getting to pitch in that game was an honor; it was a great experience.”

 

Getting the start at the All-American Classic in front of his hometown family, friends and fans was indeed an honor for the 6-foot-4, 210-pound senior at Cathedral Catholic High School in San Diego. But it will pale in comparison to a distinction Aiken could potentially earn on June 5 as the No. 1 overall pick in the first round at the 2014 MLB June Amateur First-Year Player Draft.

 

When Aiken last threw in front of radar guns in late summer, his fastball generally ranged from 88-92 miles-per-hour and topped out 93 mph; he hit 92 at both the All-American Classic and the Perfect Game National Showcase in mid-June.

 

He was generally included in the same conversations with the other top 2014 high school left-handers, including Hawaii’s Kodi Medeiros, Florida’s Foster Griffin, Georgia’s Mac Marshall, Arizona’s Alex Verdugo, and Tennessee’s Justus Sheffield.

 

This spring after six starts for Cathedral Catholic in which that same fastball was reportedly sitting 93-95 and topping out at 97, Aiken has risen to the lead role in that conversation, while his draft stock skyrocketed.

 

Perfect Game director of crosschecker Allan Simpson projects the Houston Astros will select Aiken with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft in front of Texas prep right-hander Tyler Kolek, North Carolina State left-hander Carlos Rodon and East Carolina right-hander Jeff Hoffman.

 

Simpson wrote he was told by an American League crosschecker that said, “Aiken really separated himself with the way he performed in a couple of outings (this spring). He had great stuff with his fastball touching 96-97 to go with an even more dominant breaking ball. He really stood out with his ability to command all his pitches, along with his excellent feel for pitching. Right now, he’s a pretty clear No. 1 for me.”

 

When Perfect Game scouting supervisor/director of high school coverage Todd Gold crafted his 2014 Draft Focus analysis of Aiken, he wrote: “Aiken checks every box that evaluators look for in a pitching prospect with a clean arm action, a well controlled delivery, ideal size, advanced command, prospect-grade velocity, the ability to manipulate spin on the baseball, a consistently improving changeup and a feel for pitching.”

 

All the additional attention and scrutiny can sometimes be overwhelming for a high school prospect, but Aiken exudes a unique maturity and understanding of the situation – especially considering that the UCLA signee won’t celebrate his 18th birthday until mid-August, or two months after the draft takes place.

 

“I try not to focus on what’s going on outside of the field,” he said this week. “I’ve talked to my advisor and I know there have been a couple of (scouts) at the games, but it really doesn’t affect me. I just try to go out there and do what I do and focus on the task at hand.”

 

It might seem like the spike in velocity Aiken has experienced this spring happened in the blink of eye, but in reality nothing could be further from the truth. The young southpaw has spent months developing a proper workout regimen while also learning to pace himself.

 

Aiken was a dominant performer on the Team USA 18u National Team that won the 2013 IBAF ‘AAA’/18u World Cup Championship last September in Taiwan. He went 2-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 16 innings over three appearances, including allowing only one run on five hits and striking out 10 in seven innings of work in a 3-2, nine-inning win over Japan in the championship game.

 

When Aiken returned home from that thrilling but exhausting, once-in-a-lifetime experience, he basically shut himself down.

 

“When I came back from Taiwan I took a long break; I didn’t throw at all until December,” he said. “I then started getting back into throwing and working my way back onto the mound, and when I got out on the field for the first time I was very impressed with my results. It was a lot of hard work and I’m just glad that everything is going well this spring.”

 

During the three-plus months Aiken went without picking up a baseball, he wasn’t just sitting on the beach watching the tide roll in. He has been working with trainer Paul Flores at CrossFit East County in La Mesa, Calif., since he was 12 years old and simply intensified his workouts with Flores.

 

From September into December, he visited CrossFit East County three times a week and worked on developing strength in his core and the lower half of his body while “fine tuning” the upper body strength in his shoulders.

 

“We were focusing on hips, core and all lower body,” Aiken said. “We worked on basically that for three or four months, strictly trying to get bigger and stronger … and it’s paying off right now; it’s been a big help.” So where, exactly, does that increased velocity really come from?

 

“Honestly, I think it’s just maturity and strength; I really haven’t done anything different with my mechanics,” he said. “I’m just trying to focus a little more on tuning my mechanics up, getting them a little better, but I’m not making any major changes. I think what’s helped my velocity has been the (added) strength and everything I’ve done in the offseason.”

 

Or, perhaps more accurately, everything Aiken didn’t do during the offseason, like throwing a baseball. It’s been his experience that teenage pitchers are doing too much, foolishly trying to throw 12 months a year. By taking a little time off a pitcher is able to come back stronger and more refreshed, or as he put it, “really ready to get after it.”

 

Aiken pointed to the summer of 2011 – before the start of his sophomore year in high school that fall – when he moved to Georgia and played in five PG WWBA National Championship tournaments with the East Cobb Astros and his hometown San Diego Show. He was at two other PG tournaments that year and also participated in the PG National Games Showcase – Class of 2013.

 

“I could feel toward the end of that summer that I was definitely getting very tired and my arm was getting fatigued,” he recalled. “I learned from that and I started taking time off last summer and two summers ago, and that time off helped, as well.”

 

There has been much discussion this spring about a perceived “epidemic” of elbow ligament replacement surgeries (Tommy John surgery) particularly at the major league level. The injury issue has come to the fore with hard-throwing teenagers, as well, and has resulted in many top prospects like Aiken to take a proactive approach.

 

He has met in the past with a physical therapist and participated in a “pre-hab” program that works toward preventing arm injuries. The treatment, according to Aiken, involves a lot of forearm movement with a pulley system and the use of 3- and 4-pound weights to strengthen the forearm. The pre-hab alone, however, won’t prevent injuries from occurring.

 

“I think that helps a lot, but really taking time off (is the key),” Aiken said, returning to his favorite chorus. “… What I’ve been doing is taking time off after the summer is over and doing workouts with my arm, and then getting back into throwing at a nice and easy pace.”

 

Whatever it is he’s doing to keep his arm healthy and his fastballs buzzing along at 97 miles per hour, it is certainly working. Aiken and fellow 2013 Perfect Game All-American and UCLA recruit Sean Bouchard helped the Cathedral Catholic Dons to 16 wins in their first 19 games and a No. 19 Perfect Game National High School Top 50 ranking. The Dons’ roster also includes highly ranked juniors Jonathan Pendergast (Pepperdine) and John Cresto (uncommitted).

 

After six starts, Aiken was 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA, having allowed three earned runs on 13 hits while striking out 59 and walking six in 30 2/3 innings.

 

“This year has flown by but it’s been a blast,” Aiken said. “It’s been fun and I’ve been excited, and hopefully we can make it all the way and win a CIF title this year for the team and just go from there. It’s been a fun season and I know all of our guys are looking forward to closing it out in a good way, especially the seniors.”

 

The scouting community is all abuzz with the talk that Aiken could become the first high school left-handed pitcher selected No. 1 overall since the Yankees took North Carolina prep Brien Taylor with the top pick in 1991. Aiken takes a remarkably mature approach when answering any questions in regard to being the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

 

“It’s cool knowing there’s a possibility of that but the draft’s in June and we’re still only in April, so there’s still plenty of time left,” said. “It’s cool but I put it in the back of my mind and don’t really focus on it too much because I know there’s still a lot of time left and anything can happen.”

 

That starting assignment in the 2013 PG All-American Classic remains a lifetime achievement for now but, as Aiken so astutely points out, anything can happen.

[ace3113]

Haven't read your article posted yet, so I might be repeating stuff here but that is damn disappointing. Aikens in the conversation for 1st overall now, especially with Rodon not doing too good thus far.

 

I know, it's depressing. Why couldn't he wait until after the draft to spike in velo.

 

Also, I can't remember who it was in this thread that was comparing Aiken to Deck McGuire and saying he had low upside, that's pretty lols now.

 

Also King, read my previous post about the mock draft. We need you to take two more teams.

[ace3113]

I know it was a sore point with me last year that we didn't take Shipley and didn't sign Bickford, but apparently Shipley has been looking really good early this season. Small sample size, I know, but Keith Law said there's a good chance he makes it to AA by the end of the year. In any case, it's a good thing this draft is loaded with pitching. If we can get one of Kyle Freeland or Brandon Finnegan or even both I'll be a happy camper.

[ace3113]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/pipeline-inbox-high-school-hurlers-headline-draft?ymd=20140424&content_id=73193762&vkey=news_mlb

 

Whom do you see going to the Astros with the No. 1 overall pick in the Draft?

-- Michael V., Beaumont, Texas

 

I've been covering the Draft for more than two decades, and the Astros may be the most secretive team I've encountered in terms of tipping their hand with the top choice. They had the No. 1 selection in 2012 and 2013, and even the team picking second didn't find out who Houston was taking until Commissioner Bud Selig announced his name.

 

So my answer to this question is more educated guesswork than any premium scoop. I could see four players as potential No. 1 overall choices for the Astros: California high school left-hander Brady Aiken, East Carolina right-hander Jeff Hoffman, North Carolina State lefty Carlos Rodon and Texas prep righty Tyler Kolek. That's not necessarily the order in which we'll rank them when we unveil the updated Draft Top 100 list, but that's the order in which I imagine Houston would prioritize them if the Draft were today.

 

Though he's a high schooler, Aiken has been more consistent than the college arms and combines stuff and polish better than Kolek. If the Astros pick the best available player and don't consider demographics or try to save money for later picks, Aiken would be their man.

 

Are there any college or high school bats the Cubs might consider with the fourth overall pick in the Draft?

-- Jeff B., Madison, Wis.

 

If the Cubs drafted purely on need, they'd take a pitcher at No. 4. Their system may have more high-ceiling position players than any other, starting with shortstop Javier Baez, third baseman Kris Bryant and outfielders Albert Almora and Jorge Soler. Chicago did place two arms on MLBPipeline.com's Top 100 Prospects list in C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson, but it will need more help on the mound.

 

However, teams almost never draft purely on need at the top of the Draft. The Cubs certainly didn't in 2013 when they used the second overall choice on Bryant rather than flame-throwing right-hander Jon Gray.

 

In all likelihood, Chicago will take a pitcher with the fourth selection because that's the strength of this year's Draft. It's possible that seven of the first eight picks will be pitchers. The only hitter I could see the Cubs considering would be California high school catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson, but I bet they wind up with Aiken, Hoffman, Kolek or Rodon instead.

 

Where do you think Florida high school right-hander Touki Toussaint will go in the Draft? I haven't heard his name in a while.

-- Patrick H., Tuscaloosa, Ala.

 

There hasn't been a lot of buzz about Toussaint this spring, mainly because Aiken and Kolek have hogged the spotlight among high school arms. Toussaint, who ranked No. 9 on MLBPipeline.com's initial Draft Top 50 list, still figures to be the third or fourth prep pitcher drafted. He'll probably go in the 11-20 range, behind Aiken, Kolek and maybe South Carolina righty Grant Holmes.

 

Toussaint has one of the more electric arms and best fastball/curveball combos in the 2014 Draft. He's still figuring out how to repeat his delivery so he can have better control and command of his pitches. If he does so, he'll be a frontline starter.

[ace3113]

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-10-high-school-players-rise-eighth-edition/42675

2014 MLB draft: 10 high school players on the rise — eighth edition

 

The 2014 MLB draft is six weeks away with the first two rounds to be held on June 5. As unpredictable as the MLB draft already is — this year seems even more so with so much talent bunched up at the top — there are at least 50 players who could easily go in the first round. Here are 10 high school players who have been impressing as of late:

 

Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS (FL)

 

Gordon is displaying all the tools this season that will make him a top-10 pick come June — he is one of the most exciting players in the 2014 MLB draft. Already a gifted defender at shortstop with a strong arm, instincts and great glove, he has shown increased power while maintaining his speed and advanced approach at the plate. The left-handed batter is hitting .507/.620/.870 over 27 games with nine doubles, two triples, five home runs and 17 stolen bases. He has drawn 18 walks to just three strikeouts and has been plunked five times. With his bloodlines, athleticism and baseball instincts, he has as much upside as anyone in the 2014 MLB draft. Committed to Florida State.

 

Michael Chavis, 3B, Sprayberry HS (GA)

 

At this point, Chavis has proven he can flat-out hit a baseball as hard, and as often, as anyone in this class. Through 24 games, he is hitting .571/.659/1.129 with seven doubles, 10 home runs and 17 stolen bases, showing his above-average speed (6.68/60) and athleticism. At 5’-11” and 185 pounds, he packs a huge punch and his strong arm should allow him to stick at the hot corner where the bat would play very well. He has been in first-round talks all year and has done nothing to quiet those talks. Tremendous power upside, and if he is in a home run derby, stick around. Committed to Clemson.

 

Tommy Doyle, RHP, Flint Hill HS (VA)

 

Doyle is another one of those pitchers who is all about projection. Able to hit the low-90s now, his 6’-6”, 215 pound frame suggests a lot more to come. While he works mostly off his fastball now, he shows a good feel for an upper-70s curveball and his change-up is still developing. He has a fast arm and good command of his stuff. Through 28.1 innings, he has 50 K/15 BB, allowing one run on 11 hits. Committed to Virginia.

 

Scott Blewett, RHP, Baker HS (NY)

 

Playing in the Northeast, Blewett got a late start compared to his peers. He is making up for lost time, however, by simply striking everyone out. Through his first three starts, he has 35 K/2 BB over 16 shutout innings, allowing just five hits. He jumps on hitters early, throwing a first-pitch strike to 42/55 batters he has faced. The 6’-6”, 220 pound right-hander can touch 95 mph with his fastball, and he will only get better as the weather warms up — which is scary to think. He adds a potential plus curveball with great looping action, as well as a change-up and a circle-curve (change) he has been working on. With his size, stuff, and easy delivery, he won’t make it out of the first round. Committed to St. Johns.

 

Clay Casey, OF, DeSoto HS (MS)

 

Not sure if anyone in the country is seeing the baseball better than Casey right now. Over his last six games, the 6’-3”, 205 pound right-hander has gone 15-for-19 (.790) with a double, three triples, six home runs and 18 RBI. For the year, he is now hitting .493/.568/1.080 over 25 games with six doubles, four triples, 10 home runs and six stolen bases. A very good athlete who also stars in football, Casey has tremendous power potential to go along with a strong arm in the outfield. He has a patient approach at the plate and has a lot of upside once he focuses full time on baseball. Committed to Ole Miss.

 

Adam Haseley, LHP/OF, The First Academy (FL)

 

Haseley has seen his share of scouts this year as his teammate Foster Griffin is one of the top southpaws in the 2014 MLB draft and could be a first-round pick. Haseley is a southpaw himself, and there is a lot to like about the Team USA Baseball alumni. At 6’-2” and 180 pounds, he sits 88-91 with his fastball and can touch 93. He adds a slider that shows a lot of potential and his delivery and athleticism bode well for future projection. Over 34.2 shutout innings, he has 56 K/15 BB, allowing just 14 hits. He is also a great hitter and could easily be drafted as an outfielder with above-average speed and power. Through 26 games, he is hitting .463/.586/.776 with four home runs and seven stolen bases. Committed to Virginia.

 

Michael Gettys, OF, Gainesville HS (GA)

 

Gettys is getting red-hot at the right time. Over his last 12 games, he is hitting .421/.532/1.000 with four doubles, six home runs and has stolen seven bases. He has drawn six walks to just four strikeouts as he continues to show his power potential while being more selective at the plate. He already projects to a monster in center field with his plus speed and plus/plus arm that was clocked at 100 mph from the outfield. With his continued display of patience and power, his upside is silly. For the year, he is hitting .380/.479/.798 with six doubles, nine home runs and 15 stolen bases over 26 games. Should go top-20 and I think he has top-10 potential. Committed to Georgia.

 

Greg Deichmann, SS/3B, Brother Martin HS (LA)

 

Like Chavis and Gettys, Deichmann offers huge power potential except his comes from the left side. At 6’-2” and 190 pounds, he uses his excellent bat speed to wait on his pitch and drive it deep to all fields. Through 29 games, he is hitting .408/.580/1.053 with nine doubles, two triples, 12 home runs and 29 walks. He is also an above-average runner, being clocked at 6.72 in the 60, and has stolen 15 bases this year. He has the arm and bat to stick at the hot corner. Should hear his name on day one. Committed to LSU.

 

Justin Twine, SS/RHP, Falls City HS (TX)

 

There are quick-twitch athletes, and then there is Justin Twine. He continues to be a one-man wrecking crew for Falls City. On the mound, he has 46 K/5 BB over 20.1 innings, allowing one run on seven hits. At the plate, he is hitting .537/.678/1.171 over 15 games, with six doubles, four triples, four home runs and 16 walks to five strikeouts. He has also added 18 stolen bases. Built like a running back at 5’-10” and 195 pounds, Twine is a gifted athlete who runs a 6.52/60 and is also a switch-hitter. He has shown his blazing speed this year while also showing his developing power. He has the actions to stick at shortstop but could also play well in centerfield. One of the toolsiest players in the 2014 MLB draft. Committed to TCU.

 

Jeremy Vasquez, 1B, Martin County HS (FL)

 

If you’re going to be a first baseman, there is going to be a lot of pressure put on your bat. For Vasquez, there are zero worries about that. Considered one of the best hitters in his class, the 6’-0”, 200 pound left-hander is known for his excellent bat speed and ability to rarely miss a pitch. He has shown added power this year and his approach hasn’t suffered because of it. Through 26 games, he is hitting .524/.621/.866 with 14 doubles, four home runs and 21 walks to just seven strikeouts. He shows the footwork and glove to be a plus defender at first. Committed to Florida.

[ace3113]

I said I would post these in the blog sub-forum but I can't see why everyone who is taking part in the mock draft shouldn't be able to see them. If there are any complaints from certain publications MODs please move them to the sub forum, for now I suggest anyone who wants these reports should immediately copy and paste them onto a document before that occurs. Cheers.

 

Chris Oliver

Position: RHP

Height: 6-4

Weight: 180

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: July 8, 1993

College: Arkansas

Hometown: Farmington, Ark.

Previously Drafted: Orioles '11 (27)

Projected Draft Round: 1S-2

 

Summer baseball is a very useful scouting tool for evaluating both high school and college players alike. But, keep in mind that it is not by any means the be all and end all. Players change, both for the worse and for the better at this early stage in their careers. Players have breakout summers then slide in the spring. And, then there are players that scouts feel like they have a fully formed evaluation of that turn out to be far better than they realized when the spring rolls around. There’d no greater example of that this spring than Arkansas’s Chris Oliver.The player I scouted in the Cape Cod League last summer was not necessarily different entirely from the pitcher performing at a high level this spring. In fact, he may just be proving things he didn’t have the opportunity to prove last summer or in his first two years at school. And, in the process he’s gone from an intriguing power relief arm to a weekend starter at Arkansas that has steadily pushed his way up draft boards in what has been an outstanding spring season for the Razorbacks.A 27th round pick by the Baltimore Orioles out of Shiloh Christian High School back in 2011, the Arkansas native was essentially a projection case back then. He pitched in Jupiter for the Midland Redskins in the fall of 2010, showing an 86-89 mph fastball as well as a 74 mph curveball. The projectable build was clearly there, and his athleticism and arm action were enough to get him drafted. But, it was also evident that he was more of a follow, and a pitcher that would need to develop at the collegiate level.And, develop he has since he arrived on campus as a freshman in 2012. The 6-foot-4 righthander tossed 16 1/3 innings in 2012, and proved to be a reliable option out of the Razorback bullpen. He posted a 3.86 ERA in that span, and struck out 14 while walking six along the way.Following that strong opening season as a college pitcher, Oliver ascended into a far more prominent role in what was already a very deep Arkansas bullpen. Over the course of 20 innings of work, the big righthander posted a 2.25 ERA, striking out 21 and walking eight along the way. The progression of his raw stuff, as well as his command, was a major reason he earned an invitation to pitch in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2013.Oliver was the most talked about closer early in the summer on the Cape, and for very good reason. He worked consistently at 93-95 mph in most of his outings, reaching as high as 97, showing some late life and aggressiveness in the strike zone. His 85-88 mph slider also showed the potential to be an above average offering, although the bite was inconsistent on some nights. His overall command was very impressive, however, as he walked only three batters in 14 innings, while striking out 16. He finished his summer with the Harwich Mariners with a 2.57 ERA and three saves.The impression Oliver left from his summer on the Cape was indeed a strong one, but also a very different one than he is leaving this spring. He looked like a power arm that could pitch at the end of a big league game, but suddenly this spring he has emerged as highly legitimate candidate to start at the next level. With that development comes a major boost in draft stock.Through his first ten appearances, all of them starts, Oliver has been absolutely outstanding. He has a posted a 2.29 ERA over 59 innings of work, allowing only 43 hits and 18 walks in that span. The strikeout rate could be higher, as he’s fanned 38 batters, but he’s also held hitters to a .213 batting average.Most important, however, is how well Oliver has carried his stuff from the bullpen to his new starting role. Through this spring, he’s carried a 91-95 mph fastball late into his outings, reaching upwards of 97 mph and showing solid command of it. And, in a slight adjustment to the seams of the college baseball, Oliver has supplemented his hard 85-86 mph slider with a slower but equally effective 78-81 mph curveball. He’s also shown no trouble mixing his changeup effectively, a pitch he throws mostly a 80-82 mph. In other words, this is now the arsenal of a starting pitcher. Oliver has also quieted his delivery somewhat from last summer, answering some of the questions about his ability to hold up in a starting role.The moral of the story is that things can change in the world of scouting and the draft. Notions about players can change, and given certain opportunities they can prove themselves in new roles. Chris Oliver had been a reliever for two years at Arkansas and had performed at a high level in that role in the nation’s top collegiate summer league. But, with one strong spring, he’s forced scouts to believe that he’s more than a reliever. In doing that, he’s put himself squarely in position to go in the top 40 overall picks, with a chance to sneak into the back of the first round.

[ace3113]

Zack Shannon

Position: OF/RHP

Height: 6-3

Weight: 220

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: June 22, 1996

High School: Anderson

City, State: Cincinnati, Ohio

Travel Team: Midland Redskins

Commitment: Ohio State

Projected Draft Round: 2-3

 

Zack Shannon does many things very well on the baseball field, but the single most memorable thing he has done at a Perfect Game event was on a pitch he almost never throws.After starting the game at first base for the West team at the 2013 PG All-American Classic, Shannon was brought into the game to close out what was then an 8-5 ball game. The East brought the game a run closer when Michael Gettys doubled and later scored on a wild pitch. Jackie Robinson High School Player of the Year Nick Gordon came up with two outs, and a runner on third base, representing the tying run.With the count 1-1, Gordon fouled off four consecutive fastballs, all registering between 92 and 94 mph. With tensions rising in what was already a great pitcher-hitter battle, Shannon dropped an 84 mph changeup on the lefthanded hitting Gordon. All-American Classic Honorary Chairman Trevor Hoffman couldn’t have thrown a better of changeup from that same mound.Gordon swung over the 80 grade changeup as it dove off the outside corner, ending the game and setting off the now customary two-team dog-pile on the Petco Park mound.That one game captures much of what Shannon is about as a player. He’s a serious position prospect, good enough to start the All-American Classic, but is more highly thought of as a pitching prospect by the majority of the scouting community. He has loads of talent on the mound and the potential for a starter’s arsenal of pitches, but remains relatively unrefined in his experience and overall approach to pitching.Shannon’s loudest tool as a position player is his righthanded power potential. His swing can get long and efforty at times but he has loose hands coming through the zone to contact and outstanding raw bat speed. His big power is to the middle of the field and opposite field at present as he gets his hands extended. The ball comes off Shannon’s bat exceptionally hard and he has the ability to drive the ball out of the park to any fieldShould Shannon play both ways at Ohio State, or go out professionally as a position player, his future position is still wide open. He ran 7.08 and 7.22 seconds in the 60-yard dash at the Perfect Game National Showcase and the East Coast Pro Showcase last summer, but there is some question for scouts about his mobility in right field, where his arm strength is a plus/plus tool with accuracy. Shannon has also played third base at times and shows some natural actions for that position along with the familiar cannon arm. First base is, of course, the fall back option, and while his bat would certainly fit the profile for that position, it would be an unfortunate waste of his arm strength.Shannon developed his prospect reputation primarily as a position player and doesn’t have the development background on the mound that many of his high school age peers – Shannon is actually very young for his class and won’t turn 18 until after the draft. He has pitched at 88-92, touching 93 mph this spring as a starter, with command that comes and goes due to troubles repeating his delivery and release point.As a reliever, though, Shannon has consistently been in the 91-94, touching 95 mph range with lots of late life that overmatches most hitters when he’s in the zone. Shannon’s 78-80 mph curveball has big 11-to-5 depth to go with its power, and he tends to command this pitch better than his fastball. As everyone saw last August, there is a nasty change p in his repertoire should he start to use it more often. So the potential is definitely there for Shannon to develop as a starter with more coaching and repetition. He is too good an athlete not to have that realistic opportunity.What are Shannon’s thoughts on a future as either a pitcher or a hitter? In short, typical of a 17-year old kid. “I enjoy both a lot,” Shannon told Perfect Game's Jeff Dahn before the Classic in San Diego. “I might enjoy pitching a bit more just because I like getting up on the mound and putting the team on my back, but I love hitting.”However, when asked the same question by other writers over the last year, Shannon’s answers have varied from “I like hitting the best” to “I really don’t care, I just like to play.”It’s a good dilemma to have, being talented at that number of things. Especially when you can add a new wrinkle with confidence, like a changeup, at a moment’s notice on national television.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Spencer Adams

Position: RHP

Height: 6-5

Weight: 190

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: April 13, 1996

High School: White County

City, State: Cleveland, Ga.

Travel Team: Team Elite

Commitment: Georgia

Projected Draft Round: 1S-2

 

Georgia’s fast rising high school righthander Spencer Adams isn’t probably aware of how close he came to being named a Perfect Game All-American and spending four days in San Diego at the PG All-American Classic.There was no doubt the Perfect Game staff saw Adams tremendous potential to take his talent to the next level before the 2014 draft. He was the most discussed player not selected to the game, but the excess of talented arms in the 2014 class and Adams second inning on the mound at the PG National Showcase left him just short.Adams was outstanding in his first inning of work in Minneapolis. He sat at 90-92 mph with his fastball from a short and compact arm action that hid the ball very well. His arm was smooth and liquid coming through to a mid three-quarters release point and the ball left his hand easily and with little effort. It was one of those arm actions that you can’t teach and as a scout you recognize it as something special. Adams’ slider was a second standout pitch, topping out at 86 mph with a big sweeping frisbee break to it that made righthanded hitters reach for the pitch in vain.The second inning was completely different. Adams was forced to work from the stretch and his velocity dropped to 88 mph and his slider flattened out and lost power. As one Perfect Game staff member noted, “Adams might have thrown the best inning of the event and the worst inning back-to-back. Unfortunately, that second inning tends to stick in your mind a bit more.”That outing mirrored what became a pattern throughout the summer in both showcases and in tournaments. Adams would start quickly in the first inning or two, then run out of gas early as his pitch count rose. With the dip in velocity also came a corresponding lessening of slider quality and overall command.In retrospect, it was simply a matter of strength and physical maturity with Adams and his endurance issues. He is listed in the Perfect Game records as 6-foot-5, 190-pounds with a high waist and slender upper body, but is listed in other sources as 6-foot-3, 170-pounds, which might be closer to reality. He has a young basketball player’s body, which is not coincidental as Adams was a four-year letterman at White County High School and his dunking talents might rival Monte Harrison’s as some of the best in the 2014 baseball class. In addition to going straight from basketball to baseball in the spring, Adams also played shortstop in high school when not pitching, hitting .367-4-19 to go along with his 5-4, 1.89 mark in 48 innings on the mound. He was simply tired and worn out by the time summer baseball rolled around.With a year’s more maturity and strength on his frame, Adams has taken a big step forward this spring, one that might put him in consideration for a late first round selection for a team that treasures projectable young high school pitchers. His fastball has been up to 95 mph this spring and he is maintaining low-90s velocity deep into games. Adams' slider has also taken a step forward, with more vertical shape to it to go with the big horizontal break, and is now a second pitch that shows plus on the professional grading scale. Adams has also not shown any hesitation to throw his changeup, another pitch in his repertoire that flashes plus potential at times.It was obvious that level of potential was there last summer, it just wasn’t ready to show itself on the mound yet. The time has arrived, though, for Spencer Adams.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Brett Graves

Position: RHP

Height: 6-1

Weight: 173

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Jan. 30, 1993

College: Missouri

Hometown: St. Charles, Mo.

Previously Drafted: Cardinals '11 (26)

Projected Draft Round: 1S-2

 

The stage a draft prospect gets the opportunity to perform on can often have a lot to do with how highly he ends up being valued by scouts. It can help a player, as it did for Sean Manaea a couple years back, who had his Cape Cod League performance to fall back on preceding an up and down final spring at Indiana State. Had he not had that platform in front of dozens of scouts on a daily basis, things may have worked out very differently for him. Conversely, there are pitchers like Missouri’s Brett Graves, who did not have that Cape or Team USA platform to perform on and has had to work just a bit harder this spring to prove himself as an elite draft prospect.Now, to be clear, Graves pitched for the Newport Gulls in the NECBL, the most storied team in what has been an outstanding league in recent years. The league, however, has come to be identified more as a proving ground for elite players coming off freshman seasons. Pitchers like Mark Appel and Stephen Strasburg played there following their freshman years, and present day sophomore aces like Brett Lilek and Nathan Kirby starred there last summer. The outlier, though, was Brett Graves, who could have easily stood out as a rising junior in the Cape Cod League, but instead was in the NECBL.Graves may be somewhat used to flying under by now though. He was essentially absent from the national tournament scene and did not attend a Perfect Game showcase as a high school player. He was drafted, however, by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 26th round of the 2011 draft. The scouts in the region raved about his two-sport athleticism, as he also a well known commodity as a high school quarterback. Back then he worked mostly at 89-91 mph with his fastball, but scouts in the area seemed to think he projected for more because of that athleticism and loose right arm.I attended the NECBL All-Star game last July and fully expected to be impressed by the young arms like the aforementioned Lilek and Kirby. But, seeing a rising junior like Graves look the way he did was a highly pleasant surprise. Here is what I had to say about the Missouri righthander coming off of that outing.Graves is particularly intriguing because he will also be draft eligible in 2014 as a junior, and looks like someone who we could hear about climbing draft boards next spring if things break right for him. The 6-foot-1, 173-pound righthander worked at 91-94 mph in his All-Star outing, averaging about 93. The velocity came with relative ease, although he didn't have his peak command and sometimes had his fastball flatten out up in the zone. He flashed an 82 mph slider that showed some late biting action, as well as an 85 mph changeup with some solid feel. Command and mechanical consistency will be key for him, but his above average raw stuff will need to be watched very closely.That All-Star performance was no fluke either. Following a spring in which he compiled a 3.80 ERA over 71 innings of work in the Missouri rotation, Graves blossomed in Newport, posting a minuscule 1.00 ERA over 35 2/3 innings pitched, allowing just 20 hits in that span. Many coaches around the league dubbed him the most consistent starting pitcher they saw all summer.Fast forward to this spring, and my inkling about him having the potential to climb draft boards has certainly come to fruition. But, to his credit, he’s also grown in a lot of ways as a pitcher from last summer. His command has improved, and his feel for his breaking ball has continued to steadily improve. Not to mention, his highly publicized SEC showdowns with other elite pitchers in the conference like Chris Ellis have given him that spotlight to perform under. And, so far he’s thrived in that spotlight.Through his first 10 starts in 2014, Graves has done everything he’s needed to do to build off his impressive summer in Newport. The 6-foot-1 righty has posted a 2.66 ERA over 67 2/3 innings of work, and has struck out 51 while walking only 11 batters in that span. Scouts believe he has the stuff to perhaps be missing more bats, but it’s hard to nitpick given the progress he’s made on his secondary pitches. His changeup still is something he’ll need to significantly develop at the next level, but his breaking ball has flashed above average potential this spring. So, there is development to be done, but what he brings to the table is a very live arm that performs at the highest levels and knowledge of how to command his pitches.Aside from a freshman season at Missouri where Graves posted a 6.32 ERA, all he really does is perform in any situation he’s put in. He has a confident demeanor, attacks hitters, and likes his fastball. And, speaking of his fastball, he’s reached as high as 97 mph this spring, living mostly in the 91-95 mph range. He knows how to add and subtract from that fastball as well as add movement. But, that type of track record and steady progression in both stuff and command are factors that are highly enticing to scouts.Entering the spring, Graves look like a very solid bet to go in the top 2-3 rounds of the draft. That has changed and he now looks like one of the safer bets you’ll find to go in the top 50 picks. And, there appear to be teams willing to seriously consider him in the back end of the first round if he continues to throw the way he has in the first half of this spring.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Cameron Varga

Position: RHP

Height: 6-4

Weight: 205

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Aug. 19, 1994

High School: Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy

City, State: Loveland, Ohio

Travel Team: Midland Redskins

Commitment: North Carolina

Projected Draft Round: 1S-2

 

If Perfect Game were the Major Leagues, Cameron Varga would almost have enough service time to test the free agent waters. His PG career started in 2009 coming out of his seventh grade year when he played for the SWFL Yarddawgs at the 16u WWBA Memorial Day Classic and culminated in the 2013 Perfect Game All-American Classic.During that time Varga has switched positions, transferred schools, moved to a different state and even switched college commitments. It’s been a long and winding journey thus far.Part of the reason that Varga was able to get his start into high level baseball so early is that he is almost two years older than most of his peers in the 2014 class and will turn 20 years old in mid-August. In fact, should Varga pass on professional baseball this summer and attend North Carolina, he’d only miss being a draft eligible as a freshman by a month in 2015.Lest some naysayer says that Varga is just another example of parents holding their kid back in school so he can dominate his less physically mature classmates in sports, that is definitely not the case. Varga’s father, Chad, was playing professional basketball in Europe when Cameron reached school age. Instead of enrolling Cameron in school in Europe for part of a year, the Varga’s chose to wait until Chad retired the next year and moved back to the United States to start Cameron’s formal schooling.Varga spent his early high school career playing at the IMG Academy in Florida while playing shortstop and rarely pitching. He was 6-foot-2, 170-pounds when he came to the 2011 PG Junior National Showcase coming off his freshman year and received a PG Grade of 10. Varga’s carrying tool then was his big power potential, generated from a long, easy uppercut swing with very good bat speed. He did take the mound at that event and topped out at 91 mph but was essentially just an arm strength thrower. Varga didn’t throw a breaking ball that day and had an arm action that the event notes indicate is much different than the one he throws with today.When Varga returned to the Junior National Showcase in 2012, it was obvious that he was evolving as a pitcher and could have a future on the mound. He had grown to 6-foot-3, 195-pounds and was now clearly a third baseman as a position prospect. More importantly, he was pitching instead of just throwing when facing hitters. Varga sat in the 91-93 mph range, topping out at 94 mph. He threw a short hand position slider at 79 mph that may not have been a good pitch but indicated a good starting point, and also mixed in a few changeups and cut fastballs. His arm action and release point had lengthened out and he no longer looked like a left side infielder trying to show off his arm strength on the moundAlong with starting to make the conversion from position player to pitcher that summer Varga also switched high schools, moving north to Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy in Ohio, and switched his college commitment from Florida, where he’d committed as a freshman, to North Carolina.Varga came to the Metrodome for the 2013 PG National Showcase as a full-time pitcher and didn’t even take batting practice. There was also no resemblance at all between the Cameron Varga who perhaps reluctantly took the mound in 2011 and the present day 6-foot-4, 205-pound Varga.Varga’s fastball was mostly 93-95 mph over his two innings, with lots of life when he got it down in the zone. His arm action was even longer and faster than it had been previously, while his delivery had grown some effort and energy to it that hadn’t been there before. The most impressive thing, though, was the pitcher who didn’t even have a breaking ball two years before was now throwing a 80 mph hammer curveball that was a present plus pitch.Perfect Game’s Todd Gold had this to say in his scouting notes:Few hitters at this level can touch that curveball even if they know it’s coming, overpowering stuff, just shoving it down hitter’s throatsUnfortunately, Varga strained an oblique muscle during his performance at the National Showcase and was unable to pitch at the WWBA National Championships during July or at the PG All-American Classic in August. The WWBA events would have given scouts a nice opportunity to see Varga stretched out over multiple innings against top level completion to evaluate just how far he had come as a pitcher.Varga has picked up where he left off this spring, though, consistently showing two plus present pitches in a fastball that works at 91-94 mph and will touch higher, plus the nasty curveball that is a next level strikeout pitch. There are concerns among scouts about the effort in his delivery and the occasional command problems that go with it. And no conversation about Varga is complete without some reference to his age, as scouts are well aware that Varga could be a college sophomore.However, if the scouting community wants to treat Varga as a college sophomore they have to realize that means he wasn’t even a real pitcher as a high school senior. His transformation from a position prospect to a pitcher has been a profound one and there is no reason to expect that transformation is complete yet.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Pat Connaughton

Position: RHP

Height: 6-5

Weight: 214

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Jan. 6, 1993

College: Notre Dame

Hometown: Arlington, Mass.

Previously Drafted: Padres '11 (38)

Projected Draft Round: 2

 

One of the most fascinating aspects of the draft year after year is monitoring players that not only star on the baseball diamond, but on some other field or court as well. At the extreme levels of that, you have players like 2013 Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston, who will be eligible for the 2015 draft. This year, we have Pat Connaughton, who aside from showing outstanding upside as a righthanded pitcher, also has potential as a next level talent on the basketball court. Situations like his make tracking his draft stock a little more difficult, mainly because of the fact that he truly has options in both sports.When we saw Connaughton stride to the hill at the Perfect Game National Showcase, it surprised no one to hear that he was also a basketball star. He was an extra tall, gangly high school pitcher, and he’s since added significant strength. But, his raw stuff coupled with his projection back then had quite a few scouts more than a little intrigued. It was abundantly clear that he was raw mechanically and was far from a finished product, but you couldn’t help but wonder aloud what the finished product might look like. And, his scouting report from that events reflects that.Tall slender athletic build, wiry strength. Slow paced delivery with long arm circle, mid to low 3/4's release point, not consistent with slot, best stuff from down lower. FB tops out at 91 mph, occ plus running life from lower slot, bat breaker. Big sweeping CB with some depth and spin, tends to drop elbow on change up and aim. Raw mechanics, could become nasty with consistent lower release point. High level D-I basketball prospect, still developing on the mound.To Connaughton’s credit, he has become nasty after a couple years under his belt at Notre Dame. The 6-foot-5 Massachusetts native has known nothing but success for the Irish and that starts with his freshman season back in 2012. Connaughton made 12 appearances as a freshman, ten of which were starts. He posted a 3.18 ERA over a span of 45 1/3 innings pitched, striking out 40 and walking 21 along the way.The results were even better as a sophomore, as Connaughton posted a 1.71 ERA over ten starts for Notre Dame. Over 47 1/3 innings of work, he allowed 49 hits, struck out 29 and walked 28. So, if nothing else, his low ERA shows he became pretty adept at dancing between the raindrops despite all those base runners.What Connaughton’s first two seasons also show with those relatively low inning totals is that he still does not have a significant amount of experience under his belt. Basketball has cut into his time on the baseball diamond and has kept his innings total down. That could be looked at both positively and negative of course. And, the upside is that his arm is very fresh and that some of the command flaws scouts see in him may still be fixable issues as he gains more experience at the next level.In what was also a very brief summer season for Connaughton in 2013, he made a very brief pit stop in the Cape Cod League with only two starts for the Harwich Mariners. But, Connaughton also made a very nice impression in that short amount of time. Reaching 94 mph with his fastball, Connaughton lived consistently at 90-93, and mixed in a sharp 72-75 mph curveball. He’ll vary the speed with it at times and overall needs to be more consistent with his feel and command of it. He also mixed a mid-80s changeup as well, but this will also need further development.Connaughton’s draft stock isn’t as simple to determine as other players in this class, however. There are the natural questions around him as to whether he is going to want to return to Notre Dame for his senior season to finish out his basketball career. And, that appears to be a very real issue that scouts and teams will have to get figured out before June.Through his first five starts in 2014, following his late start due to the basketball season, Connaughton hasn’t quite gotten his legs under him just yet. He has posted a 5.11 ERA over 24 2/3 innings pitched, and he has walked 19 batters while striking out just 17. So, clearly there are adjustments that will need to be made as the spring moves along and scouts begin to watch him closer and closer.The logical deduction to make is that if he has an outstanding remainder of the spring, teams will be more inclined to try to lure him away from his last year at school. But, it could also very easily go the other way. The belief among scouts in the region, though, is that he could be in play in the top two rounds if there’s a strong enough belief that he is indeed signable.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Foster Griffin

Position: LHP

Height: 6-5

Weight: 210

Bats/Throws: R-L

Birthdate: July 27, 1995

High School: The First Academy

City, State: Orlando, Fla.

Travel Team: Orlando Scorpions

Commitment: Mississippi

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

Scouts, and especially veteran scouts, consider projection to be a dangerous but often necessary evaluating tool, to be used sparingly and only with good reason. Project too much and you better start planning to work that new non-baseball job with your father-in-law. Don’t project enough and you won’t get to sign many young and talented prospects.Florida high school lefthander Foster Griffin has had a text book progression of his talents and is a good lesson in understanding how many elements come together in a successful, low risk scouting projection.Griffin has the athletic family background and genetics you want to see in a young prospect. His father, Fred, is a professional golfer, the director of the Grand Cypress Academy of Golf in Orlando and is recognized at one of the top golf instructors in the country. The younger Griffin not surprisingly plays golf in addition to baseball in high school.Early in his high school career, Griffin was as much a first baseman as he was a lefthanded pitcher. He only pitched junior varsity as a sophomore but picked up a handful of varsity at-bats as a position player. When Griffin made his first appearance of the summer with the Orlando Scorpions at the WWBA 18u Memorial Day tournament, he threw 81-83 with a soft 68 mph curveball.Griffin threw at four more events for the Scorpions through the summer and fall, gradually picking up more velocity every time, and finally topped out at 87 mph in October at the WWBA World Championship that year. His curveball was still in the upper-60s but his changeup was showing real progress. Virtually every set of notes from those events referenced Griffin’s “long loose body and arm action,” his “ability to throw strikes with all his pitches” and his “great demeanor on the mound.”Playing on a very talented The First Academy team that featured third round pick and outfielder Ben DeLuzio, as well as two-way standout and fellow junior lefthander/outfielder Adam Haseley, Griffin went 4-2, 1.58 in 35 innings, with 15 walks and 50 strikeouts as a junior. He also hit .347-3-17 while playing first base.When Griffin took the mound in Minneapolis last June at the Perfect Game National Showcase it was obvious he’d taken the next step in his progression. His fastball worked in the 89-91 mph range, touching 92, with lots of arm-side run and sink. Griffin’s curveball had picked up notable power and spin and now peaked at 75 mph with bite instead of roll. His changeup also was a potential plus offering. He’d filled out to 6-foot-5 and at least 200 pounds and was loose and fluid in all his actions.This writer said about Griffin after watching him that day, “That’s a future first round draft pick. If he gets stronger in the next 12 months, it’s out of high school. If it takes another year or two, it’s out of college. But it’s going to happen.”That’s when one feels confident about a projection.Griffin’s raw stuff stayed at that level throughout the summer and he established himself as a high performance pitcher at other events. He was named the Most Valuable Pitcher as the Scorpions won the 2013 WWBA 17u National Championship, throwing six shutout innings with 11 strikeouts against a very talented Marucci Elite team in the semi-finals. Perfect Game National Scouting Director Greg Sabers called that outing the best pitching performance he saw all year.Griffin finished the summer by retiring both hitters he faced at the Perfect Game All-American Classic in San Diego.An obvious key to successfully projecting any athlete is to know when the time for physical improvement is done and future improvement will be achieved by better mechanics and skills. By back tracking Griffin’s very steady physical improvement over the previous 18 months and looking at his build and strength potential, combined with how easily he threw the ball, it certainly didn’t look like Griffin was near the end of his physical projection.That’s what’s proved true this spring. Griffin has come out of the gate throwing steadily in the low-90s and topping out at 94 mph without the loss of command or life on his fastball. His off-speed pitches continue to gain power and quality as well and scouts are beginning to talk about Griffin as a legitimate first round candidate in a draft class that is getting increasingly top heavy in quality arms.There is surely a group of scouts right now thinking about Griffin and wondering, given his steady improvement and ideal projection, if he doesn’t have yet another tier to move up to in the future, the tier that has a pitcher throwing 92-94 and peaking at 96 mph with quality off-speed pitches and command. That’s an impact pitcher at the big league level.And that’s the fun of making optimistic projections on young players. And the danger.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Spencer Turnbull

Position: RHP

Height: 6-3

Weight: 230

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Sept. 18, 1992

College: Alabama

Hometown: Madison, Miss.

Previously Drafted: Never drafted

Projected Draft Round: 1S-3

 

When you are big, strong, righthanded and throw 95 mph, people want to see you miss bats and rack up strikeouts. Of course, the big leagues are littered with pitchers who are not “strikeout” pitchers, but yet that is still what all scouts are seeking at the amateur level. And, it’s something that’s been examined very thoroughly with Alabama righthander Spencer Turnbull. He has those requisite attributes mentioned above, and he’s performed well at the college level, but the question has remained as to whether he can consistent miss bats at the next level, or the college level for that matter. So far in 2014, he’s answering that question fairly emphatically.We got our first look at Spencer Turnbull back in 2010, when he suited up for Marucci Elite in Jupiter. He looked the part of a projectable righthander back then, but did not have the type of high octane velocity we see from him today. In Jupiter, he worked consistently at 88-91 mph from an over the top arm slot. Since that time, Turnbull has added about 20 pounds of strength and about five extra ticks of velocity.The Madison, Mississippi native experienced some understandable growing pains during his freshman season at Alabama. He compiled a 5.60 ERA in 15 appearances, and ten of those appearances came in a starting role. He walked 26 batters and allowed 54 hits over 53 innings of work, but did manage to strike out 45 batters.The Spencer Turnbull that showed up for his sophomore season, however, was a much more schooled and polished pitcher. He became an anchor in the Crimson Tide rotation and tossed 90 innings over the course of his 15 starts. The strikeout-to-walk ratio did raise some questions though, as he walked 38 while striking out 51. However, he was a consistent performer week in and week out nonetheless for Alabama.Turnbull would be one of the more discussed pitchers heading into his summer on the Cape Cod League, as scouts looked to answer some questions about his abilities as a starter. But, it was not an easy summer for Turnbull on the Cape. Despite his solid 3.85 ERA for the Wareham Gatemen, he allowed 37 base runners in 16 1/3 IP, while striking out only nine batters the entire summer. He split time between the rotation and the bullpen, and despite the ups and downs, he still showed many stretches of high level stuff in his arsenal. Working between 91-95 mph and topping as high as 96, Turnbull’s 6-foot-3, 230-pound frame clearly generates a powerful fastball, and the swings hitters have at his fastball are not aggressive ones.It’s his command, and ability to consistently trust in one of his secondary pitches that causes him to run into trouble. His 78-81 mph curveball has the tendency to stay up in the zone, and the rotation was not there consistently for him over the summer. Out of the bullpen, where he could rely heavily on his power fastball, Turnbull found more success. But, his easy power fastball and durable frame still make him an attractive starting candidate at the next level.Following what could be described as a learning experience of a summer, it was clear even during the fall that Turnbull had made positive strides in the right direction. For one, his already plus fastball appears to have found even more life. There have been reports this spring that he has reached as high as 98 mph with his fastball and has more consistently lived at 93-95 mph. That’s a nice bonus, but it’s the progress in the off-speed stuff that teams will be most interested in. His breaking ball has been tighter, more consistent and much more well spotted. It still has a ways to go, but it’s the step we’ve been looking for nonetheless.Turnbull will also have to show scouts he can consistently repeat his mechanics. He had some issues staying back over the rubber last summer, and his over the top arm slot looks to have given him some release point issues in the past. There are no major concerns in there in terms of long term durability, but are things he’ll need to iron out in order to be more consistent with his location.And, so far in 2014, Turnbull has been every bite the ace that Alabama needs him to be. Through his first five starts he has essentially been untouchable. Over 29 innings, he has compiled a 0.31 ERA and struck out 26 batters. Scouts of course would still like to see him miss more bats, but this has definitely been a big step in the right direction. His stuff has begun to translate to the greater dominance scout have long believed he was capable of.A lot of eyes will continue to be on Turnbull as he continues to compete in the talent laden SEC. The progression of his numbers is important, but scouts will be looking for him to sustain this well into May. He has the size, the durability and the fastball to start at the next level. It’s simply a matter of whether his arsenal will continue to develop in that direction, or if he will ultimately suit a reliever profile a little better. Entering the spring, Turnbull was looking like a second to third round draft candidate, but may now find himself as high as the supplemental first round if he keeps this up.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Chris Ellis

Position: RHP

Height: 6-5

Weight: 205

Bats/Throws: L-R

Birthdate: Sept. 22, 1992

College: Mississippi

Hometown: Birmingham, Ala.

Previously Drafted: Dodgers '11 (50)

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

It doesn’t come as a surprise when certain players are dubbed “sleepers” or as “flying under the radar”, as many of them come from less than traditional baseball hot-beds or have a more undervalued skill-set. Then, there are players like Ole Miss righthander, Chris Ellis that shouldn’t surprise anyone, but appears poised to do just that nonetheless.There’s nothing sneaky about Ellis’ raw stuff, his delivery, or where he goes to school. And, he performed at a top notch level in the nation’s elite collegiate summer league on Cape Cod in 2013. But, nevertheless, Ellis has not yet received his full credit for being the potential first round selection that his ability clearly dictates that he may be.Ellis has not had the signature season over his first two years in college baseball to cement himself among the elite. What he has had are glimpses of brilliance and stretches like he had in the Cape Cod League where he looks to be able to stack up with nearly any pitcher in the country.The 6-foot-5, 205-pound righthander was a picture of projection coming out of the high school ranks, sporting a long, gangly look when he pitched in Jupiter back in 2010. Pitching at 84-89 mph with his fastball, Ellis was not the fully formed power pitcher we know him to be today. The Dodgers did draft him in the 50th round of the 2011 draft, but it was clear that he was a pitcher that could benefit from the development that college baseball provides.As it turned out, Ellis was a quick study upon arriving on campus at Ole Miss and immediately put together a solid freshman campaign. Over 31 2/3 innings, mostly out of the bullpen, the righthander compiled a 2.84 ERA, struck out 29 and walked eight batters. His raw stuff had improved, as had his overall command and consistency. And, it would be only natural to suspect a leap to another level in his sophomore campaign.That ascension didn’t happen, however, as Ellis battled the injury bug in the spring of 2013. Important to note, however, is that his issues were not arm related. It was in fact an abdominal strain that plagued him and held him to just 21 innings of work. Ellis posted a disappointing 5.57 ERA in that span. However, if you talked to most scouts in the region, they will point to Ellis as a potential elite draft pick with the type of ability that could explode given an opportunity to blossom in summer baseball.Ellis got that chance in the Cape Cod League, where he helped anchor an outstanding Cotuit Kettleers rotation. Any questions about his ability to start there may have been soon evaporated, as he could easily be identified as one of the league’s most consistent hurlers. The Alabama native posted a 2.38 ERA over 37 2/3 innings of work on the Cape, allowing 32 hits, 10 walks, and striking out 23 in that span.While the consistency and statistical performance were excellent things to see from a development standpoint for Ellis, it’s ultimately going to be the complete package of skills that could make him a first round draft selection. To say that Ellis “checks all the boxes” would be more than a minor understatement. A long, lean, athletic 6-foot-5 righthander, you won’t find many pitchers in the 2014 draft class that looks more like a big league starting pitcher. If you’e looking for a long, clean, fluid arm action, Chris Ellis can give you that and then some.Ellis is a true three-pitch pitcher, and it was his changeup that may have been the biggest difference in his Cape Cod performance last summer. Near the beginning of his summer tour on the Cape, Ellis would live in the 90-93 mph range with his fastball. It was clear that he did not find his best velocity until the middle part of the summer. Seemingly from start one, however, he had his changeup. There were outings where he would not even throw a breaking ball until the third or fourth inning, cruising on the strength of that changeup as his go-to secondary offering. Thrown at 81-84 mph, Ellis matches his plus two-seam fastball movement with very similar diving changeup action. He’s consistently down in the zone and it’s an extremely difficult pitch to see out of his hand. When he’s living in the lower quadrants and below, it is certainly a plus, swing-and-miss offering for him.Entering the summer, there was an awareness of Ellis’ good breaking ball in the scouting world, making the emergence of the changeup all the more impressive. As the end of his summer drew closer, though, his sharp curveball would emerge more and more often. Thrown at 77-80 mph, his 12-to-6 hook shows big depth and he was able to throw it to both sides of the plate. At times, he won’t finish this pitch as aggressively as he could, and he needs to be careful with his north to south location of it.By summer’s end Ellis had indeed developed into a full fledged three-pitch starter. And, in his later outings that 90-93 mph fastball had became a 91-95 mph fastball, reaching those 95s very consistently. With his good extension and big life out of his hand, it’s a fastball with potential to play up. The number one thing for him to prioritize this spring is going to be pitching down in the zone. There are occasions where he is not fully taking advantage of the downward angle he can generate and giving hitters too good of an opportunity with pitches around thigh high. If he can do that, that’s when we’ll begin to see him miss more bats the way a pitcher with his brand of premium stuff should be doing on a regular basis.Draft pundits and observers would like to see a consistent Chris Ellis this spring, and they’d also like to see him fully healthy. But, in fairness, there are a vast number of highly touted draft prospects with the very same questions attached to their names. All we can do at this point is evaluate present talent and future upside, and with his projection, smooth delivery, and three average or better big league offerings, until he does something to prove otherwise, there’s no compelling argument against the Ole Miss righthander landing a spot at least in the top 40 picks in the June draft. And, if he can post an effective and healthy spring, a top 20 selection is well within the realm of possibility.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Kyle Freeland

Position: LHP

Height: 6-3

Weight: 170

Bats/Throws: L-L

Birthdate: May 14, 1993

College: Evansville

Hometown: Denver, Colo.

Previously Drafted: Phillies '11 (35)

Projected Draft Round: 1-2

 

Summer collegiate baseball has evolved into a way of evening up the playing field for college players across the country. Players from all corners of the nation and from various conferences, large and small, are on the same field and looking to prove themselves to the very same scouts. The Cape Cod League is the highest level example of that, and Evansville’s Kyle Freeland is among the best examples of what a player can do to take advantage of that platform in recent memory.Area scouts may have been well aware of Freeland’s potential, but a stellar summer on the Cape has him now squarely on the radar of scouting directors as one of the top lefthanders in the 2014 draft class.A native of Denver, Colorado, one could see how Freeland has managed to stay somewhat under the radar until this past year. By no means was he completely unknown, however, as the Philadelphia Phillies drafted him in the 35th round of the 2011 MLB Draft. To say he’s come a long way since then, though, would be more than a significant understatement. Freeland elected to go pitch at the University Evansville, and from there we’d begin to see an evolution from him into the prospect he is today.The best thing that can happen to a “cold weather pitcher” like Freeland is getting an opportunity to rack up innings and experience. He got just that at Evansville in his freshman season, as he was handed a full-time rotation slot and 91 innings of work to go along with it. Not yet the dynamic swing-and-miss pitcher he is today, Freeland struck out 70 batters in that span, while walking 22 and surrendering 92 hits. His 4.55 ERA was a solid, if not pedestrian total, but again it may be the innings that were most important in that freshman campaign.The true coming out party for Freeland in college baseball could likely be traced back to his time spent in the Alaska League following his freshman season. Enjoying a summer season that included a string of over 30 straight scoreless innings, the 6-foot-3 lefthander ended up with a 5-1 record for the Anchorage Glacier Pilots, posting a 1.74 ERA and striking out 37 batters in 41 innings of work. He also earned rave reviews from coaches around the league for his plus slider and fastball that reached as high as 93 mph. Perfect Game’s post-summer Alaska League Top Prospect list named Freeland the league’s No. 6 prospect.It seemed that Freeland had flipped a switch in Alaska, but whatever switch he flipped didn’t quite stay permanently on when he returned to Evansville for his sophomore season. While he continued to eat innings (93 1/3), he allowed 107 hits and posted a solid but not representative of his talent 4.34 ERA. And, the simple issue scouts in the region would point to was simply consistency.Whatever happens to Kyle Freeland when the summer months rolls around, he certainly seems to do his best work there. Following up on his spectacular tour in the Alaska League, Freeland took it up yet another notch by steamrolling Cape Cod League competition in 2013. Suiting up the Hyannis Harbor Hawks, Freeland did not look the part of a pitcher who had just given up 107 hits in 93 innings for Evansville.Freeland was impeccable in nearly every way and in multiple roles for Hyannis. He worked primarily as a starter, but also contributed in some very valuable, high leverage relief outings. Over nine appearances an 40 innings, Freeland fanned 48 batters, allowed 39 hits and walked only four.So, exactly what did Freeland tap into to make the leap from talented but somewhat inconsistent lefthander in the spring to the dominant force he became over the summer? In terms of raw stuff, it’s easy to see how it equates to high levels of success. At his best, Freeland lives consistently at 90-92 mph, consistently topping at 93 mph. Out of the bullpen, he’s capable of sitting at 92-93 mph. And, his gangly frame only figures to add strength, which could lead to some further projection. From his three-quarters arm slot, Freeland generates what amounts to a heavy fastball that is difficult to read out of his hand.Speaking of that arm angle, it’s a key component to both how difficult Freeland can be to hit and what helped him make such strides in the summer of 2013. Upon first viewing Freeland with Hyannis, what I saw was a pitcher of varying arm angles, sometimes down to a more true low three-quarters slot. He was a pitcher that looked like a future reliever in the making, a highly effective one, but a reliever nonetheless. By the end of the summer, Freeland looked a lot less like that pitcher and very much like an arm you could see in a big league rotation. His slot, while still very difficult for hitters, was more consistent, and more repeatable, and his delivery much more under control than I had seen before.That consistency isn’t going to do much to change the lively fastball that put Freeland on the map, but what it does do is allow him to be far more effective in commanding his secondary pitches. There’s a reason the Evansville standout walked just four batters all summer, and that was because he could turn to three different pitches he could throw for strikes.The most notable of that arsenal is clearly his slider, which in a lot of ways acts as multiple pitches for Freeland. He throws it anywhere between 80-87 mph, and yes that is a very wide range. Early in the summer, he’d vary his angle with it, and late in the summer it would simply serve as a wide variation for him. The 80-82 mph variation has a sweeping action and is a pitch he used more frequently against lefthanded batters. He became very adept at spotting the 84-87 mph variation on each side of the plate to righties, and the downward tilt on that offering is that makes it a true plus pitch for Freeland.The icing on the cake for Freeland was the evolution of his changeup. Still a pitch that he only needed to use sparsely on the Cape, it became still a very important weapon to combat righthanded batters. Thrown anywhere from 83-86 mph, this is more of the changeup you’ll see from the likes of CC Sabathia, which is to say it behaves more like a choked version of a two-seamer both in terms of differential and movement. He spots this pitch very well, and it has the look of a big league average offering in the making.The lingering questions will still be in place for Freeland all spring despite all this. Scouts want to see him duplicate one of these superb summers over the course of an entire spring. But, there’s also a strong enough body of evidence in terms of mechanical improvements that Freeland has very likely turned a corner for good this time. If that’s the case, look for him to go off the board in the 25-40 overall range when Junes rolls around.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Brian Anderson

Position: IF/OF

Height: 6-3

Weight: 185

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: May 19, 1993

College: Arkansas

Hometown: Edmond, Okla.

Previously Drafted: Twins '11 (20)

Projected Draft Round: 1S-2

 

It doesn’t always take a breakout summer in terms of staggering stat lines to get a player his proper recognition. The world of top prospects isn’t populated only by players like Max Pentecost and Sean Manaea before him who put themselves in the forefront of the draft picture by shear force of will and dominant results.Sometimes there are players like Arkansas’ Brian Anderson, who from the outside looking in would appear to have had a setback of a summer in the Cape Cod League in 2013. And, while of course, a trying summer season does raise questions, more importantly it was a summer that put Anderson squarely on the national radar and allowed scouts to dream on what he was capable of being.Coming into the summer of 2013, Anderson had already compiled a stellar resume at the University of Arkansas. A former 20th round pick by the Minnesota Twins in the 2011 MLB Draft, Anderson enjoyed a strong freshman season, starting 33 games for the Razorbacks and compiling a .283 batting average. Anderson followed that spring up with a breakout summer in the Northwoods League suiting up for the Lakeshore Chinooks, where he hit .290 with five home runs. That led to him being named PG's No. 22 prospect in the league that summer.A player that seemingly progressively improves the more games he gets under his belt, Anderson turned himself into the most consistent offensive force that Arkansas had to offer in 2013. Starting 59 games as a sophomore, Anderson hit .325 with four home runs, posting a highly impressive .448 on-base percentage in the process. He also stole six bases in seven attempts. It was this version of Anderson – the patient, highly athletic, well rounded player that filled up almost every column in his stat – that scouts were anxious to get more looks at when he suited up for the Hyannis Harbor Hawks in the summer of 2013.Statistically at least, that player never fully arrived in the Cape Cod League. On the contrary, it was a summer of struggles for Anderson at the plate, as he began the summer in a tailspin and never seemed to be able to completely pull out of it. Over 132 at-bats, Anderson hit .227 with just seven extra base hits. But, the moral of this story is not that Anderson’s stock as a draft prospect took a significant hit. The same cannot be said for many players who have difficult stints on the Cape, but Anderson’s campaign there is simply viewed differently in scouts’ eyes.Of course, doubters will arise based off Anderson’ trying summer, and that’s more than fair. He did struggle against the nation’s best collection of college pitching, and he did not perform the way most expected he should. All that said, if you watched Anderson on a day-to-day basis, he had the look of a player who had one of the most uniquely rounded and impressive skill-sets in the country.In terms of pure bat speed, the 6-foot-3, 185 pound Anderson stacks up among the elite in the 2014 draft class. At his best, he stays balanced, gets to his back leg consistently and takes an aggressive, line drive swing. He has no issues with the fastball on the inside part of the plate and covers the outer third as well.So, what happened to that player over the summer? Sometimes those answers are simple ones. Early in the summer, he began to get somewhat heavy on his front side and a little early with his timing in general. There would be stretches where he’d come out of that funk, but for the most part it appeared to plague him for most of the summer season.While a long term struggle obviously can’t be over-simplified to small timing and mechanical issues, it’s worth pointing out that these things (prolonged slumps) can happen and it doesn’t always indicate something dire regarding draft status. What should be seen when you watch Anderson day-to-day is that plus bat speed, as well as his plus foot speed, average big league arm, and above average plate discipline. And, if he returns to his productive ways for Arkansas in 2014, it will make it a lot easier for scouts to acknowledge all those traits and erase the memory of his difficult summer in Cape Cod.Now, there is a question of position on the diamond when it comes to Anderson. He’s a highly capable left fielder with the arm and speed to play there, but it appears that the infield will be his home for Arkansas in 2014. He’s played third base in the past, but second base seems to be where he’ll be headed this time around. The outfield is likely to remain his most likely option as a professional, but if he can prove to be a capable infield option, it should only help his draft stock.Much when it comes to Anderson will hinge on how much he produces this spring and how he rebounds from his summer in 2013. But, assuming he does swing the bat the way he did last spring, look for him to be an option anywhere between the compensation and second round.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Max Pentecost

Position: C

Height: 6-1

Weight: 190

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: March 10, 1993

College: Kennesaw State

Hometown: Winder, Ga.

Previously Drafted: Rangers '11 (7)

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

There are too many stories to count of players who were highly touted out of high school, opted against lucrative professional offers and attended college. There are even more stories of players who were less than household names in the scouting world coming out of the high school ranks who blossomed into top draft picks in college. Kennesaw State’s Max Pentecost falls somewhere in between those two categories. Thought to be a sleeper of sorts coming out the prep ranks, there were teams out there thinking of Pentecost as a potential steal beyond the top five rounds of the draft.One of those clubs that came away particularly intrigued by Pentecost’s skill-set and upside back in 2011 was the Texas Rangers, who ended up drafting him in the seventh round. The athletic backstop had progressed significantly in his senior season from the summer before, when he had shown tools but not the polish of an elite draft selection. The Winder, Georgia native attended the 2010 Perfect Game National Showcase and ended up receiving a grade of 9.5 in his official scouting report. It was pointed out the while he possessed the requisite arm strength and agility behind the plate, many of his fundamentals needed further development.The key words in that report were “projects well.” A young player in need of strength and maturity, Pentecost’s bat was also not nearly at the advanced point back in 2011 that we’ve seen it reach today. But, by the spring of 2011, scouts were beginning to see strong hints of Pentecost evolving into a high level player – and, that’s what led to his seventh round selection. Ultimately, talks broke down between the Rangers and Pentecost, and he of course would end up at Kennesaw State. But, make no mistake, Texas and many other clubs saw the very clear beginnings of Pentecost becoming the elite player he is today.The 6-foot-1, 190-pound backstop held his own as a freshman for the Owls, putting up a .277 batting average in 191 at-bats. His emergence truly began, however, when he arrived in the NECBL to suit up for the Holyoke Blue Sox that summer. There, he hit .303 and began to show more power potential, as he swatted three home runs in 37 games.Doing a good job of building off that performance, Pentecost returned to Kennesaw State in 2013 and put together a solid sophomore season. He hit .302 in 57 games, slugging three home runs and 14 doubles in the process. Perhaps more importantly, he caught 46 percent of the base runners who attempted to steal against him.It’s usually impossible to pinpoint moments in a players’ career as to when they “arrived.” Sometimes though, and this is rare, you can look back at one particular game and say that’s when it all culminated. On July 10th of 2013, Max Pentecost arrived as a first round draft prospect. Sure, he’d been busy obliterating the Cape Cod League for weeks prior, but if you were selling Pentecost as a product, this is the game footage you would want to be shown. He went on to win the league’s MVP honors for the Bourne Braves – as well as PG's summer collegiate Player of the Year – in what was an obvious choice. Pentecost hit .346 with a .424 on-base percentage and six home runs. Couple that with his consistent play behind the plate and he was clearly the league’s most impactful and dynamic talent.But, going back to his signature night, It was a 5-for-5 night at the plate for Pentecost, so even at first glance it was a highly impressive evening. But, the closer you look the more impressed you’ll be. He reached base seven times that night in Orleans, via a hit by pitch, a home run, a single, a walk, another single, a drag bunt single, and a go-ahead home run in the top of the 12th inning to cap it off. Try to find a catcher spending 12 innings behind the dish that has had a better night at the plate than that at any level.July 10th was essentially the perfect Max Pentecost showcase. Everything you need to know to fill out his evaluation card was on display in that game. My two recorded home-to-first times for him that night were 4.18 and 4.25 seconds respectively, showing that he is a different breed when it comes to speed and athleticism for catchers. He gets out of the box exceptionally well and shows undoubted, present 55 speed on the 20-80 scale. As with most catchers, you have to project backwards somewhat on that, but catchers with big league average speed are more than a little difficult to come by. Worth noting that Pentecost has eight stolen bases in his first two years of college baseball, and has never been caught. He stole five bases on the Cape and was caught just twice.Then there are the two home runs Pentecost launched that night. Both shots were directly to his pull side and that’s where you should expect his power to be for the most part. It may be the biggest difference between his present and high school tool set. He’s very quick inside and shows as much trust in his hands as any player in the country. He handles the good fastball, but also proved to be a superb mistake hitter in Cape Cod. A breaking ball with less than perfect location is likely going to turn into a line drive off his bat.Working from a very quiet setup, Pentecost has developed great strength in his wrists, and what results is a low effort looking swing that produces major life off his bat. And, his ability to handle off-speed pitches isn’t all the surprising if you watch the way Pentecost takes batting practice. Despite his game action power, you’ll rarely see Pentecost clear the fence in BP, and instead he’ll focus almost exclusively on hitting line drives to the middle of the field and the other way.When you talk to scouts who saw a lot of Pentecost in high school, they comment as just as much about the progression of his receiving skills as they do his offense. He clearly has the athleticism and arm strength – he consistently produced 1.85 to 1.92 pop times all summer on the Cape – but his hands and side-to-side movement have become a strength in his game as well.In other words, what scouts have for their consideration this spring is a player with the defensive tools and body to be an everyday big league catcher, with present above average speed, the potential for a plus hit tool and 55 power potential. A lot of this hinges on, like many players, his ability to duplicate the type of offensive performance he put together on the Cape. He has to show his power stroke is here to stay and that he is indeed the ultra-consistent line drive hitter that he appeared to be with the Bourne Braves. If that indeed happens, Pentecost will find himself going off the board in the first 20 picks in June.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Kyle Schwarber

Position: C/1B/OF

Height: 6-0

Weight: 240

Bats/Throws: L-R

Birthdate: March 5, 1993

College: Indiana

Hometown: Middletown, Ohio

Previously Drafted: Never drafted

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

When you look around the Major League landscape today, it’s much different than it was only a few few years ago in one very significant way. The days of being able to easily find 30 home run type power hitters are once again gone and lefthanded power in particular is now one of the most valuable commodities in the game. And, this scarcity of course, is of tremendous benefit to draft hopefuls like Indiana’s Kyle Schwarber.Now perhaps the premier lefthanded power bat in the 2014 draft class, it’s important to know where Schwarber has come from to fully understand him now. Some of his elite counterparts in this class like Derek Fisher or Max Pentecost were well known commodities coming out of high school that attracted heavy professional attention. Schwarber was not one of these players. He had yet to fully tap into what we now know is a massive well of power potential and his approach had yet to be fully polished. But, once he arrived at Indiana it just seemed to come together very quickly for him.Schwarber was fantastic as a freshman for the Hoosiers, immediately stepping into an everyday role and hitting .300 with eight home runs in 60 games. Also, in what comes as a small surprise, he stole nine bases in 12 attempts. The absolutely most impressive statistic from the Middletown, Ohio native though was his 42 walks compared to only 24 strikeouts in 230 at-bats. That is rare feat for any player, let alone a freshman and a significant power threat.Although he didn’t quite repeat the feat in the strikeout-to-walk ratio category, Schwarber went on to have a monstrous campaign in the Cape Cod League following his successful freshman season. The lefthand hitting slugger launched eight home runs and posted a .343 batting average in 172 at-bats for Wareham, and mixed in some heroic playoff moments along the way. In what was the final and deciding game of the CCBL Championship series against Yarmouth-Dennis, Schwarber belted two dramatic home runs in the ninth and 10th innings to help seal the title for the Gatemen.Schwarber’s sophomore season ended up being a culmination of all of his accomplishments over his first two years as a college player. He hit 18 home runs and batted a robust .366 in 61 games for the Hoosiers. And, if you look at combined totals, the 6-foot, 240 pound slugger has now homered 37 times over 703 at-bats at school and in the Cape League. That includes his brief stint with Wareham in 2013, which we’ll touch on below.Some players become known as “coaches players” and Schwarber is one of those. His coaches speak of him in glowing terms and there is good reason for it. He earns raves for his dedication to his craft. The slugger spent a large chunk of the summer with the Team USA Collegiate National Team – where he had an impressive stint – and when his run there ended, the logical move would have been for him to pack his bags and head for home. Instead, Schwarber plotted a direct path for Cape Cod to join the Wareham Gatemen.Wareham suffered through a trying season in 2013, losing a number of their star players to everything from innings limits to illness for large portions or the entire summer. The Gatemen owned, far and away, the league’s worst record upon Schwarber’s arrival on July 25th and had nothing tangible to play for. But, Schwarber, without hesitation, returned to them anyway after enjoying his 2012 experience in the league and with the Wareham coaching staff. Like many hitters over the years, Schwarber appeared to grow as a hitter under the tutelage of Gatemen head coach, Cooper Farris, which also appeared to play a part in his return.And, Schwarber clearly didn’t come back to the Cape just to relax, he clearly came to hit. In his 37 at-bats, Schwarber hit .432 with one home run, making a significant impact on what had become an anemic Wareham offense at the time. He displayed what he always does – that he doesn’t give away at-bats and that he’s a pure hitter first and foremost.For those of us who have arrived at a big league ballpark early enough to watch batting practice, the thing you notice is the way the players go about taking their rounds. Generally speaking, it’s not all about how many baseballs they can land in the seats, although of course plenty of power will be on display when the moment is right. But, you’ll see them working on different aspects of their game or trying to perfect something they’ve worked on in their swing mechanics. Kyle Schwarber may be able to lay claim to having the most powerful swing in college baseball, but his batting practice rounds are not simply geared toward seeing how far he can hit the ball.When you look the part the way Schwarber does and hit the ball 450 feet the way he can, your reputation can get over-simplified. The reality is that he’s a student of hitting with an aptitude at the plate that’s difficult to match that just so happens to have elite level power. And, this is what makes watching him prepare for at-bats in the hours preceding a game so interesting. In his early rounds, he focuses even more than most players on shooting line drives to the opposite field and keeping his swing compact and inside the ball. He hits from a wide base, gets into a crouched position and is one of the best in the country at using his incredibly strong lower half to generate power.Eventually though, batting practice does get less cerebral with Schwarber and gets a lot more fun for the lucky viewing public. To put it simply, Schwarber lands baseball in places where baseballs aren’t usually found. That list of places includes the local Chatham Fire Department in Cape Cod, which received multiple visits from baseballs off Schwarber’s bat during batting practice last summer. The fire department sits beyond the right-center field fence in Chatham, and more specifically is across the street and sits atop a steep hill. The doors are typically open as they display their trucks to those watching the games.As someone who has seen years of batting practice take place at this field, baseballs just don’t hit this building and don’t land inside this building, unless it’s on a hop. If they have it’s very rarified territory. And, after Schwarber sent multiple balls into the entrance and off the building one day in Chatham, the typically open fire department garage doors were closed shortly thereafter. Maybe it was a coincidence or maybe they just weren’t use to having their trucks threatened at over 420 feet away from home plate.To make a long story short, Kyle Schwarber forced a local fire department to close their doors.Stories of peppering fire trucks with home run balls are all in good fun and maybe will make for goofy on-air anecdote fodder for broadcasters if Schwarber lives up to his potential, but the more important takeaway is the balanced player he has evolved into. His defense isn’t discussed frequently, and there are two reasons for that. The first reason is that his bat may be prolific enough to carry him regardless of his position. In stance, swing, and offensive profile, Schwarber is highly reminiscent of what Travis Hafner looked like in his prime. His short, whiplike swing is unusual for a player of his strength and power. And, it also allows him to let the ball track deep and be as patient as he is. And, to say that he’s going to be a favorite of sabermetricians out there is an understatement.The second reason for the lack of discussion on Schwarber’s defensive is that he’s simply minimized the issue. He’s not a liability behind the plate, and has shown enough to prove he can handle himself there and has the arm strength to play there. His offensive profile is likely going to make him a primary first baseman, although he also handles himself well in the outfield. He runs fairly well despite his 240-pound frame.Come spring time, when scouts begin to dissect Schwarber’s profile, we’ll hear things about his lack of projection or that his position is a question mark. But, the bottom line is that lefthanded hitters – particularly ones with power – are one of the strongest currencies floating around in baseball. And, on his offensive profile alone, Schwarber challenges for the title of best hitter in the country. With that in mind, it’s difficult to see him getting beyond the top 20 picks in the June draft.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Bradley Zimmer

Position: OF

Height: 6-5

Weight: 205

Bats/Throws: L-R

Birthdate: March 15, 1993

College: San Francisco

Hometown: La Jolla, Calif.

Previously Drafted: Cubs '11 (23)

Projected Draft Round: 1-2

 

If you follow the draft even as a casual observer, you are bound to hear the word “bloodlines” bandied about more than a little bit now and then. Seemingly every year we see the son of a former big leaguer go off the board in the early part of the draft. On rare occasions, we see sets of siblings feature prominently in the draft.This year, Bradley Zimmer presents an especially interesting scenario. Two years ago, his brother, Kyle Zimmer was taken fifth overall in the draft by the Kansas City Royals. The difference, however, is that Kyle was taken as a righthanded pitcher, and Bradley is an outfielder. But, the younger Zimmer may also find himself in that first round draft pick club with his older brother.There’s not many parallels you can draw between a pitcher and an outfielder, but more than anything else Zimmer’s bloodlines simply point is a strong history of high performance in the game and athleticism. And, Zimmer’s skills have been recognized for quite some time, and it probably doesn’t hurt when every scout in the baseball world is familiar with your older brother who attended the same university.The year before Kyle was made the fifth pick in the nation by Kansas City, Bradley was selected in the 23rd round out of high school by the Chicago Cubs. The La Jolla, California native made the logical choice, however, to attend the University of San Francisco, where he would have the opportunity to be teammates with his brother for one season.Zimmer was not an instant success upon his arrival in San Francisco, as hit hit just .242 in his freshman season, and his 31 strikeouts compared to just four walks jumped out as problem areas. However, the turnaround in his sophomore season was stark and swift. He had become a true offensive star worthy of national attention. The sweet swinging outfielder hit .320 with a vastly improved .437 on-base percentage. And, after going homer-less as a freshman, Zimmer turned on the power with seven long balls as well as 12 doubles.As it turned out, the Dons star outfielder was able to carry his momentum from his breakout sophomore campaign right into his summer season. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound outfielder earned a spot on the Collegiate National team after beginning his summer in the Cape Cod League. Zimmer, who impressed the scouts with his advanced hit tool throughout his stint, finished his run with Team USA with a .300 average, with a home run and 11 RBI.Zimmer had two tours of duty with the Cotuit Kettleers on the Cape in the same summer, playing seven games there before departing for Team USA, and then finishing out his summer there with a 15 game stint including the playoffs. Zimmer hit .281 and was one of the team’s most valuable players in that span. He’s a favorite of coaches, who enjoy his game attitude and ability to do the small things to help a team win a game, on top of all of his high upside raw ability. His willingness to come back to the Cape and continue playing after his Team USA tour also speaks volumes.Zimmer has some length to his swing, which is not a surprise given his long, 6-foot-5 frame, but he’s a hitter that disguises it very well with a consistent barrage of line drives in game action. It’s an old cliche but “he just hits” seems to apply to Zimmer. He read breaking balls as well as any player in the Cape League last summer, and uses the opposite field exceptionally well.Lefthanded breaking balls also seemed to have little or no negative impact on him either, as he showed numerous times he was able to hang in with his front side and go the other way. Zimmer is not a major power threat right now, but he has the strength, particularly in his lower half, that will likely allow him to learn to hit the ball out of the park down the line. Zimmer is a step above average in the speed department and gets good breaks in center field. His arm will play in center field as well, and he consistently makes accurate throws.There is bound to be some split on Zimmer among the scouting community. The ones who believe in his upside will frequently compare him to former Yankees’ outfielder, Paul O’Neill. The comparison works well on a number of levels. For one, to be on board with Zimmer as a potential first round selection, you have to be fully on board with his, for lack of a better phrase, knack for hitting. Some scouts will find ways to poke holes in his swing mechanics, but just can’t look past his barrel accuracy, ability to recognize pitches and spray line drives all over the field. And, with his extra large frame, many scouts believe his power will develop as he learns to tap into it.Even if his detractors can point out some of his flaws throughout the spring, there will be be even more who begin to buy into the Paul O’Neill type of profile. And, that’s going to be a profile a team is more than willing to pay first round dollars to.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Luis Ortiz

Position: RHP

Height: 6-3

Weight: 205

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Dec. 30, 1995

High School: Sanger

City, State: Fresno, Calif.

Travel Team: San Diego Show

Commitment: Fresno State

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

Fresno area Marriott Hotels better be ready for the onslaught of cross-checkers this spring, because there will be a steady stream of high level scouts heading out to the Central Valley. Righthanded pitcher Luis Ortiz from Sanger High School, shortstop Jacob Gatewood from Clovis High School and outfielder Trenton Kemp from Buchanan High School are all Perfect Game All-Americans, while Fresno State righthanded pitcher Jordan Brink is a potential first round college arm.Of that quartet, Ortiz has a strong chance to hear his name called first on draft day.That would have been an unlikely scenario at the beginning of a year ago, as few in the baseball community outside of Fresno had heard of the 6-foot-3, 205-pound Ortiz.A good part of the reason for that is that Ortiz wasn’t ready physically to show his true talents. At his only previous Perfect Game event, the 2010 PG/EvoShield Underclass National Championship, the then freshman was described in the PG scouting notes as “good frame, softer build, thick, pudgy” and only played a position. But before the 2013 high school season, Ortiz lost at least 40 pounds and transformed himself into a high level athlete.For a player who entered the summer as an unknown, Ortiz went on quite a world and national tour. He began at the Perfect Game National Showcase in Minneapolis, moved on to the Tournament of Stars in North Carolina, stopped in Marietta, Georgia to pitch for the San Diego Show at the WWBA 17u and 18u National Championship – he was named the Most Valuable Pitcher at the 18u event – came back to California for the Perfect Game All-American Classic and the Area Code Games, then flew off to Taiwan with the USA 18u National Team.He saved his best work for last, being named the Most Valuable Player at the IBF World Cup, where the United States defeated Japan 3-2 in the Gold Medal game. Ortiz served as a team’s closer, going 1-0 with three saves and striking out the side in the ninth inning of the final game.Of course, being stereotyped as a closer is not a positive thing for an 18-year old pitcher, and while Ortiz has the stuff, makeup and bounce-back arm for that role, he’s far more than a two-pitch hurler.Ortiz’s fastball and slider are certainly noteworthy and are the first things anyone who has scouted Ortiz will remember first. His fastball is regularly in the 92-94 mph range and has topped out at 95 mph for Perfect Game scouts and has reportedly been up to 97 mph elsewhere. Ortiz generates his velocity from a long and smooth arm action and high three-quarters release point and throws with very little effort. His easy arm and sound delivery mechanics give him outstanding command, and he can spot his fastball to both sides of the plate, although he seems to particularly enjoy throwing inside to righthanded hitters.In fact, the combination of Ortiz’s command and difficult-to-hit stuff resulted in some of the shortest innings scouts saw all summer. It wasn’t at all uncommon during Ortiz’s four-month run around the baseball circuit for him to throw 8-10 pitch innings, something that makes scout bear down all the much more, not to mention appreciate.Ortiz’s slider at times was simply the best such pitch in the 2014 class. It is a true power slider in the mid-80s, with sharp, late biting action at the plate and plenty of two-plane depth. He probably had his best slider of the summer at the PG National Showcase and it was frequently a present plus big league pitch.When you have two plus pitches and are getting hitters out quickly on low pitch counts, using the rest of one’s arsenal isn’t always possible let alone necessary. But Ortiz does have two other pitches that scouts who saw him enough already should be developing a feel for.He throws a mid-80s changeup with good arm speed that acts almost like a cutter in its action but is distinctly different than his slider. It’s easy to imagine a pitching coach at the next level working with him on the grip of this pitch to create movement in the other direction to give lefthanded hitters in particular another look. On at least two occasions during the summer Ortiz also unveiled a big breaking mid-70s downer curveball that showed potential but is currently still a developing pitch.All those different factors – a big durable build, solid low effort mechanics, outstanding command, four different pitches and two present plus pitches – all point to an ideal package for a productive and effective starting pitcher.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Michael Gettys

Position: OF

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Oct. 22, 1995

High School: Gainesville

City, State: Gainesville, Ga.

Travel Team: Tigers Baseball

Commitment: Georgia

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

Leading up to the 2014 MLB Draft, Perfect Game’s staff of scouts will roll out 100 profiles of top high school and college prospects, with one each being posted each weekday. Our figurative leadoff hitter for the 2014 Perfect Game Draft Focus series is also appropriately the current No. 1 prospect in the PG Class of 2014 high school rankings, Georgia outfielder Michael Gettys.The first thing to note about the 6-foot-2, 205-pound outfielder in the context of the 2014 class is there has not been a high school draft class in many years that so clearly doesn’t have a consensus top prospect less than six months before the draft. Five different players were seriously discussed by the Perfect Game staff before Gettys was elevated to the lead spot, replacing catcher Alex Jackson, after the 2013 PG All-American Classic. In Jupiter at the WWBA World Championship in late October, at least a half dozen national level scouts, including a couple of scouting directors, asked this writer who he thought was the top player but none had a clear opinion of their own.What puts Gettys at the top spot as of the third week of January is very simple to summarize: He has huge physical tools.Although he more resembles a power hitter physically, it’s Gettys speed that dominates his present game. He ran a 6.43 60-yard dash at the Perfect Game National Showcase and ran 4.03 and 4.05 from the right side on two ground balls at that event. Gettys also plays with a motor that is revved up 100 percent at all times, which makes his plus speed stand out even more. One of the defining plays of the All-American Classic was Gettys' line drive to right center field off a tough slider from righthander Zack Shannon that looked like a routine single but ended up a hustle double.Gettys regularly wreaks havoc on the bases at national level events and did the same thing last spring for Gainesville High School, stealing 29 bases in 30 attempts while hitting .470-3-18.Then there’s Gettys arm, which is a weapon unto itself. He threw an even 100 mph on the radar gun during outfield drills at the PG National Showcase and has the type of rare arm strength that will cause even veteran scouts to pause in conversations to watch him throw in pre-game in/out drills.While Gettys route running and jumps in the outfield still need maturing, an outfielder who is a 70 runner on the pro grading scale with an 80 arm is a potential Gold Glove outfielder every day.Although Gettys has pitched at a dozen Perfect Game events over the years and went 6-0, 0.00 with 63 strikeouts and only eight walks in 38 innings as a high school junior, he isn’t generally considered a potential pitching prospect. He topped out at 94 mph a couple of times last summer with a twisty low-80s slider and a pretty good changeup, so the arm strength definitely translates, but his delivery and breaking ball would need plenty of work to develop into a true two-way prospect.Gettys raw power doesn’t quite measure up to his speed, arm strength and overall defensive potential but it is still a legitimate plus projectable tool. He has easy bat speed and plenty of strength to drive the ball out of any part the ball park.The area where scouts will be focusing on hard this spring will be Gettys hit tool. As mentioned, his bat speed is a plus, as are his strength and quick-twitch hands. But Gettys showed a tendency to get himself out frequently on off-speed pitches due to his aggressive approach at the plate and gave scouts plenty of opportunities to get good home-to-first times by frequently rolling over pitches he could have driven.Ironically, the best scouting report on Gettys might have been crafted by his off-season workout partner, Clint Frazier. Frazier, of course, was the top ranked prospect on the PG Class of 2013 rankings at this same point last winter and ended up being the fifth overall pick to the Cleveland Indians last June.While standing behind the backstop watching a game at the Perfect Game/EvoShield National Championships in September at the Indians minor league facility in Goodyear, Ariz., Frazier summarized his thoughts on Gettys as follows, using himself as a comparison.“Gettys is bigger than me and is just as strong. He’s faster than me and I think he has a better arm than just about anyone out there, it’s just awesome. And he wants to be a Major League player really, really badly, he’s going to out-work everyone to get there. But I think at the same stage I was a better hitter than Gettys. That’s where he’s going to have to improve if he’s going to get picked where I was.”There is no question that the tools are there for Gettys to be a Frazier level draft this June. Hitting tools and skills develop at different rates for different prospects, so Gettys long-term future won’t be determined by how he swings it in 100 at-bats against Georgia high school pitching this spring. But his short-term draft future likely will be.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Tyler Kolek

Position: RHP

Height: 6-5

Weight: 250

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Dec. 15, 1995

High School: Shepherd

City, State: Shepherd, Texas

Travel Team: Houston Heat

Commitment: Texas Christian

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

In the current high school/travel ball era it takes a special and almost unique set of circumstances to create a buzz and mystery about a prospect. There is too much instant communication and too many Perfect Game events for any player to remain hidden for long.But that’s what essentially happened with Shepherd (Texas) High School righthander Tyler Kolek late last May and early June.Shepherd is a small farming town of about 2,000 residents an hour northeast of Houston on Highway 59. Kolek’s father, Steve, is a manager at a 10,000 acre ranch and Kolek and his younger brother, top 2015 pitching prospect Stephen, are de facto ranch hands for their father. If you’re going to remain hidden as a baseball prospect, living in a small Texas town and working on a ranch is a good place to start.Kolek had only pitched at one Perfect Game event going into last summer, throwing for the Houston Heat at the 2012 16u WWBA National Championship and topping out at 91 mph. So he had a short resume but certainly no national profile.Then Kolek broke his left arm in a collision at first base early last spring and missed almost the entire high school season.The buzz started when Kolek resumed playing for the Heat after his high school season ended in mid-May. There was talk of an oversized junior throwing in the mid- to upper-90s that no one knew about. There was even one picture that circulated of a radar gun held by a college coach that showed 102 for a pitch, a number that multiple pro scouts at the same game said was 98 or 99 mph on their guns.When a scout says a pitch was “only” 99 mph, that’s saying something.The Perfect Game staff was able to get Kolek to the PG National Showcase in mid-June, although even that took some work as there was a crop of hay to get in on the ranch that conflicted with the National dates. Circumstances such as that just further contributed to the buzz surrounding Kolek.Once Kolek took the mound in the Metrodome it was quickly obvious that all the buzz and mystery surrounding the big righthander was entirely justified and worth waiting for. He topped out at 97 mph with his fastball and threw a big breaking low-80s slider and a 12-to-6 downer curveball in the 75-78 mph range. Maybe the most intriguing thing about Kolek’s performance that day is that he started off throwing 92-94 mph in the first inning and steadily added velocity throughout his two frames, finishing up steady in the 95-97 mph range. One got the feeling that if he were to go out to the mound for a few more hitters he might throw the 100 mph heat that everyone was not so secretly hoping for.The rest of Kolek’s summer was consistent with his National Showcase performance. He threw at the Tournament of Stars and the Area Code Games before pitching the second inning for the West team at the PG All-American Classic in San Diego on August 11. There Kolek struck out two hitters while topping out at an All-American record 99 mph to go with an 82 mph slider.From a scouting perspective, Kolek’s two biggest assets are obviously his extreme size and strength and the velocity he’s able to generate from that. The velocity comes fairly easily and he doesn’t have to go hunting for his top velocity numbers at the cost of effort and command. As he gains more experience and repetitions it’s easy to see him developing both plus command and different types of movement on his fastball.Kolek’s slider is more a big sweeping “wipeout” slider than a class short and tight one. It has very tight and hard spin at times, although Kolek’s somewhat cross-body delivery and his tendency to get under the pitch make it inconsistent at times. A pitching coach in the future will likely explore morphing Kolek’s present slider into a more of a power curveball with more vertical shape to it and giving him a shorter cutter/slider in the upper-80s to go with it. Kolek hasn’t thrown a changeup at a national level event yet, something scouts don’t appear to be critical of at the moment.The easiest comparison to make to Kolek is Colorado Rockies top prospect, righthander Jonathan Gray, the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. Gray has a similar 6-foot-4, 240-pound build and the ability to throw strikes with and maintain an elite level velocity fastball over the course of a start. With a solid and healthy spring, Kolek could well find himself landing in just about the same spot as Gray did last year.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Erick Fedde

Position: RHP

Height: 6-4

Weight: 180

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Feb. 25, 1993

College: UNLV

Hometown: Las Vegas, Nev.

Previously Drafted: Padres '11 (24)

Projected Draft Round: 1-2

 

If you were Erick Fedde, you couldn’t have asked for a much better showcase platform than the one he received in 2013. Few players get the opportunity to strut their stuff for both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League in the same summer, but the UNLV righthander had the chance to do just that. And, to say the least, he thrived under those two separate spotlights. By doing, he placed himself squarely in the picture as one of the nation’s elite and most advanced righthanded college starting pitchers.The 6-foot-4, 180-pound righthander has been the epitome of a solid performer for quite some time now actually. Before he ever suited up in red, white and blue or played on the Cape, Fedde was garnering attention in the high schools ranks as well. Also an All-State soccer player at Las Vegas High School, Fedde was a consistent force on the mound and ended up getting drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 24th round of the 2011 draft. Fedde was an interesting curiosity for scouts back then, as they looked at his highly projectable frame and fastball that reached 92 mph and wondered just what he could blossom into.It can’t be said enough that Erick Fedde just seems to be one of those players that can’t help but perform and succeed wherever he goes – even if it’s on the soccer field in high school. So, it probably didn’t surprise too many people when he was an instant success as a freshman at UNLV. And, this was not an stance of just getting the young righthander’s feet wet, he was thrown right into the fire. Fedde tossed 90 innings in 2012, reaching that total in 15 starts. He led the team in those two categories as well as in ERA (3.59), strikeouts (66), and wins (6).Fedde followed that strong freshman campaign with another solid season as a sophomore for the Rebels. The righthander tossed 96 1/3 innings and posted a 3.92 ERA. And, while that ERA was a little elevated, his strikeout to walk ratio was solid with 83 strikeouts and just 28 free passes.Before his unexpected departure for Team USA – a stint we’ll touch on below – Fedde appeared to be well on his way to an Outstanding Pitcher award in the Cape Cod League. He made five starts for the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox, tossing 30 2/3 innings in that short span and proving himself to be one of the circuit’s true workhorses. He posted a 2.34 ERA, walked only eight batters and struck out 26. The optimum word here again is reliable or consistent, that’s what Fedde is start in and start out.The lanky, projectable 6-4 righthander has the stuff to back up those numbers, armed with a 91-94 mph fastball that reached upwards of 96 mph this summer. His best weapon is his 80-84 mph slider, which he will throw to both sides of the plate, and will backdoor to lefty batters. He works from a three-quarters arm angle, and he’ll need to be mindful of keeping his arm angle up late in games. His slider flattened at times late in some of his Cape outings. Fedde is mostly a two-pitch pitcher at the moment, but he did mix in an occasional changeup for Y-D, throwing it at 82-84 mph. It’s a pitch he’ll need to develop further in order to start at the next level. Fedde likes to work quickly on the mound, and does an excellent job of pounding the lower quadrants of the strike zone.As we’ve touched on, Fedde departed the Cape abruptly in mid-July, though, as Team USA came calling. In need of a replacement arm, Fedde, who was mowing down hitters in the nation’s premier summer league, was of course a logical choice. And, not surprisingly, the Las Vegas native picked up right where he left off on the Cape. In two appearances for Team USA, Fedde compiled a 3.18 ERA and struck out eight batters while walking just one in 5 2/3 innings of work.The closer the draft gets and the more quality outings Fedde compiles for UNLV, the more attractive he’s going to look to scouts. There is a lot of fluctuation going on down the stretch toward the draft, and even good players can be inconsistent. Barring unforeseen circumstances, that just isn’t something that talent evaluators should expect from Fedde. You’ll know what you are getting every time he takes the ball, it’s just a matter of how highly you view what he puts on display.The main question teams will try to answer is if Fedde profiles in a starting role or out of the bullpen. And, it’s a valid question. But, it’s also a question he has the ability to put to rest with the right type of performance. Fedde can clearly be a big league starter from a physical standpoint – he’s a highly athletic, lean, and projectable. His arm works clean enough and he flashes two plus big league offerings. He simply needs to prove he can locate a third pitch consistently enough to turn over a professional lineup.Reports out of fall practice indicated that Fedde shows flashes of even higher velocity, topping out as high as 98 mph. This doesn’t change the expectation that he’ll likely always work at 91-94 mph as a starter, but also shows he may be able to crank it up a couple more notches if he does need to work from the bullpen. For now, though, given the feel he’s shown for pitching and ability to eat innings, the money should be put on Fedde being able to start as a professional. If he can convince enough scouts and scouting directors of that, he’s going to be a major factor in the top 40 picks when June rolls around.

 

-PG

[ace3113]

Alex Jackson

Position: C/OF/3B

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Dec. 25, 1995

High School: Rancho Bernardo

City, State: Escondido, Calif.

Travel Team: San Diego Show

Commitment: Oregon

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

Alex Jackson loudly introduced himself to the larger baseball world in 2010, starting for Rancho Bernardo High School (a.k.a. “The Factory), one of the most storied high school programs in the country, as a freshman. He hit .376-5-27 with 15 doubles as a 15 year old in the spring of 2011, then topped that by hitting .400-17-36 as a sophomore in 2012.He stole the show as an underclassman at the 2012 Area Code Games, going 6-for-7 with five extra base hits, the final one a laser triple off the center field fence that hit the cement wall at Blair Field and rebounded half way back to the infield. Yes, the balls were juiced at that event, but Jackson hit the ball as hard as is humanly possible for 16 year old just about every time up.Jackson followed that up a week later by putting on a show in front of the Perfect Game scouts at the PG National Games. He launched the first pitch in batting practice over the batter’s eye at UC San Diego, threw 84 mph and popped a 1.73 in drills, then stood out in the games on both sides of the ball, even playing third base at a high prospect level to show off his athleticism.When Perfect Game re-ordered the class of 2014 top prospect list at the end of that summer, Jackson was the obvious choice to hold down the top overall spot.Fast forward to January of 2014. Jackson now sits in the number three slot behind Georgia outfielder Michael Gettys and Florida shortstop/righthanded pitcher Nicholas Gordon. What happened?In many ways nothing happened. Jackson is still perhaps the most enjoyable player in the country to watch work out. His strength and bat speed enable him to put on a majestic show in batting practice. His tools and athletic awareness in catching drills are unique and his arm strength from the outfield, coupled with his surprising athleticism, make him equally outstanding at that position.In fact, Jackson’s catching drill performance at the 2013 PG National Showcase was one for the ages on multiple levels. He made his first couple of throws for the radar gun and threw absolute lines to second base, one registering an all-time Perfect Game record 91 mph. He then shortened his arm action and release and threw a couple of mid 1.7s on the bag, the lowest being 1.74. That may seem like a simple thing to do in concept but to actually pull it off in a Major League stadium with hundreds of scouts watching at the biggest showcase in baseball is an entirely different matter. It was no problem for Jackson.Jackson also has stood out for his makeup and character on and off the field. He was most impressive for his role with fellow Perfect Game All-Americans Brady Aiken and Sean Bouchard in acting as the “hosts” for the PG All-American Classic in San Diego last August, leading an effort by the trio to raise over $12,000 for Rady Children’s Hospital prior to the game. Jackson handled the entire effort, including the ensuing media attention, with adult maturity.Where Jackson has come up short in what admittedly is an unimportant semantic exercise of ranking players, is that he hasn’t had that single distinguishing at-bat or game or event over the last 18 months that clearly stamps him as “the guy” in the 2014 class. Many scouts feel that his swing has got longer, with the result being less squared up contact to the middle of the field, where Jackson’s power plays the best. He had arguably his worst, taken in context, high school season as a junior, hitting .343-14-37 with 22 strikeouts and rarely drove the ball hard in national level events during the summer and fall.That ability to take his prodigious hitting tools consistently into game situations will be the major thing that scouts will be looking at this spring leading up to the draft.The other thing that could potentially factor in to Jackson’s evaluation is the speculation on his future position. He is being advised by Scott Boras, who famously, and in retrospect very wisely, orchestrated Bryce Harper’s move from the physical demands of catching to the more offensively friendly freedoms of playing the outfield at a similar age.

 

-PG