2014 MLB Draft: An Early Look

[ace3113]

Baseball America 2014 Draft notes:

 

The top prep righthander in the class, 6-foot-6, 245-pound Tyler Kolek of Shepherd (Texas) High, has gotten off to a blistering start and has reportedly touched 100 mph this spring after touching 99 mph at both the Perfect Game All-American Classic and Under Armour All-American Game. Kolek has started three games and has thrown 16 innings. He hit yet to allow a hit and has allowed only one walk. With 35 strikeouts on the season, Kolek has struck out more than two-thirds of the 52 hitters he has faced.

 

Although the defending state champion and No. 4 ranked team in the country, Owasso (Okla.) High, has a run differential of plus-28 through five games, the Rams lost to Bishop Kelley High (Tulsa, Okla.), 8-4 on March 10. That loss ended the Rams’ 38-game winning streak, which was the fourth-longest in the nation. The last time the Rams lost was in the 2012 state playoffs.

 

Pitching has been the strength of the team in the early going, as the Rams allowed only one run combined in the other four games.

 

Senior righthander Braden Webb has thrown no-hitters in his first two starts. He has struck out 23 against six walks in 12 innings. Webb has also hit a home run in his second start. The South Carolina commit was an Area Code Games participant, where his fastball was 88-91 mph with sink and touched 92. The quick-armed Webb has touched 93 this spring from a high three-quarters arm slot. His curveball shows the makings of an average pitch, and Webb complements the offering with a changeup. The 6-foot-2, 199-pound Webb, who is old for the class and will be 19 on draft day, has a strong, athletic build with long arms.

 

Lefthander Jeb Bargfeldt, a Wichita State commit, threw a two-hit shutout in his first start and allowed only one hit in his second, striking out 12.

 

The Clovis (Calif.) High Cougars are off to a strong start before the team heads to USA Baseball’s National High School Invitational at the end of the month. Clovis returns eight starters and is an offensive ballclub that has outscored its opponents by 76 runs in 13 games. Clovis has a headlining prospect in shortstop Jacob Gatewood, who has arguably as much raw power as any high school player in the class and reportedly hit a 486-foot home run in a victory over Rocklin (Calif.) High.

 

The Fresno area is an amateur talent hotbed with potential first-rounders in Gatewood and Sanger (Calif.) High righthander Luis Ortiz and another potential first-day selection in Buchanan High (Clovis, Calif.) outfielder Trenton Kemp. The Tri-Rivers Athletic Conference also has a number of teams that could factor into the national rankings. Buchanan, off to a 10-0 start, jumped to No. 16 in last week’s national rankings before Clovis handed it its first loss. Clovis also handed Clovis West High its first loss of the season. Clovis West is coached by Kevin Patrick, the son of longtime Clovis head coach James Patrick.

 

The Cougars entered the season looking to replace significant key innings from last year’s team and the pitching has been strong. Clovis has allowed one or two runs in seven of its 13 games and its record stands at 12-1.

 

Archbishop McCarthy High (Southwest Ranches, Fla.) is off to a 13-1 start in its quest for a fifth-straight state championship. With three seniors committed to DI schools in the rotation and an experienced defense, run prevention was expected to be the Mavericks strength and it has proven so in the early stages of the season. In 14 games, the staff has thrown eight shutouts and has allowed one run four times. Archbishop McCarthy’s lone defeat came in an 8-3 loss to Coral Gables High (Miami, Fla.). The Mavericks have outscored their opponents by 110 runs.

 

Archbishop McCarthy defeated a ranked opponent in No. 21 American Heritage (Plantation, Fla.) 5-0 in the first week of March and the two will square off again on Friday.

 

The top team in the Tar Heel state, No. 15 T.C. Roberson (Asheville, N.C.), is off to a 5-0 start with a plus-23 run differential. This sets up a prime matchup on Saturday against the Rams’ biggest threat in the state, North Buncombe (Weaverville, N.C.), which is also off to a 5-0 start. North Buncombe has mashed in the early going, scoring at least 10 runs in its five games, outscoring its opponents by 54 runs and hitting a combined .474/.539/.753 with 25 extra-base hits.

 

The matchup with North Buncombe pits the top pitcher in the state, North Buncombe lefthander Alex Destino (South Carolina), against the best hitter, Roberson first baseman Braxton Davidson (North Carolina), in a tough same-side matchup for the lefthanded-hitting Davidson. This is the Rams’ final game before the start of the National High School Invitational next week.

[ace3113]

More 2014 Draft notes:

 

Obligatory Brandon Finnegan strikeout update: the Texas Christian lefthander struck out 10 of the 23 Dartmouth hitters he faced. Finnegan has struck out more than 10 hitters in four of his five starts, the other being a nine-punchout performance. He ran his fastball up to 96 on Friday and has struck out 40 percent of batters he’s faced, with a nearly 8:1 strikeout-walk ratio.

 

Oregon State’s duo of pitchability lefthanders with four pitches, Ben Wetzler and Jace Fry, continues to perform at a high level. They have combined to allow one earned run (0.26 ERA) and six hits in 34 innings against Utah and Northern Illinois, against whom Fry threw a no-hitter. On the season, they have combined to walk 1.5 per-nine with a 4:1 strikeout-walk ratio. The 6-foot-1, 195-pound Wetzler’s fastball has been in the high 80s this spring to go with multiple offspeed pitches that have average potential.

 

The strong, 6-foot, 197-pound Fry has pitched in the 88-91 mph range, touching 92 with at least average fastball movement. His slider and changeup have average potential, with the slider being the superior offering.

 

Another control-type lefthander, Georgia Southern’s Sam Howard, has demonstrated strong strike-throwing ability. Howard allowed one run in seven innings against Elon and allowed only one walk against eight strikeouts. This season, Howard has a 9.5 strikeout-walk ratio while allowing 1.1 walks per-nine. The long, loose 6-foot-3, 183-pound lefthander sits 88-91 with his fastball and touches 92 to go with a low-80s changeup and breaking ball.

 

Virginia righthander Nick Howard has thrived pitching out of the bullpen this year after starting 12 games last season. Howard’s fastball velocity has continued to climb, running his fastball up to 97 mph in recent weeks. He has struck out 46 percent of all hitters (37) on the season and has not allowed a walk in 10 innings.

 

Four-pitch righthander Colin Welmon continued to limit free passes, not walking any of the 30 hitters he faced against Portland. In 37 innings this season, Welmon has walked only three hitters (0.7 walks per-nine) with a 9:1 strikeout-walk ratio. Welmon creates downhill plane from a high three-quarters arm slot and creates tough angles by pitching from the far third base side of the rubber and throwing across his body. His fastball has sat in the high 80s and touched 92 mph. His curveball and changeup show the makings of average offerings. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound Welmon has a strong lower half a room to get stronger in his upper body.

 

UC Irvine corner infielder Taylor Sparks hit his first two home runs of the year against Nebraska. The strong-bodied 6-foot-4, 215-pound Sparks has plus raw power and entered the year with an isolated slugging of .200. He is hitting .342/.402/.562, but Sparks continues to swing and miss at a high rate without walking much. Sparks has struck out in 26 percent of his plate appearances this season versus a 7-percent walk rate.

[KingKat]

Aiken over Rodon? That's a huge endorsment.

[ace3113]

KLaw

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1380?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_LawBradyAiken&refresh=true

 

That's some pretty heady praise. I don't know how to feel about this though. On the one hand I feel vindicated having rated him so highly since last season, but on the other hand, he may rise out of our pick range. I hope it's just early helium (like what Chris Anderson and Matt Krook got last spring) and that he's still available when we pick. I think if you're uber optimistic he could be a Clayton Kershaw lite or at worst a Tyler Skaggs clone.

 

One other guy who's impressed me this spring is Bradley Zimmer from San Francisco. He's Kyle's brother, and he's loaded with tools.

 

6'4 lefty hitter with plus speed and arm, untapped plus raw power, and a feel to hit. Might be able to handle centerfield, but most likely a right fielder. I'm going to throw a Shawn Green comp on this guy, though he's a little more physical. He pitches too, like his brother. I think he throws low to mid 90s from the mound. I like him more than Fisher, for his hitting ability and defensive value. Here are his stats this year so far:

 

77ab .403/.446/.636 4hr 14rbi 4(2b) 1(3b) 4bb 12so 8sb 3cs

[ace3113]

Nooooo. Please fall to us.

 

 

Brady Aiken, lhp, Cathedral Catholic, San Diego

 

Aiken entered the spring ranked as the top prep lefthander in the class and the second prep pitcher, behind righthander Tyler Kolek. With arguably the best command in the prep ranks, two offspeed pitches that showed at least above-average potential and a clean, easy delivery, Aiken offered everything desirable except for above-average velocity. The Team USA star was mostly 88-91 on the showcase circuit, touching 93 at the Perfect Game All-American Classic. But Aiken has come out strong this spring, running his fastball up to 94-97 mph in a scrimmage and sitting 91-94, touching 95 in his second start.

 

“I think this is what we were all kind of waiting for,” an American League area scout said. “We always knew he could pitch, but he’s just come out with that velocity, sitting in that 92-93 range and has been up to 97. He looks physically stronger. He showed you all three pitches. He also broke out that changeup. He was pitching in and out, down at the knees—it was everything you wanted to see. You just walked away going, ‘geez.’ I would say he’s definitely in the mix for the top five picks.”

 

Although his breaking ball showed plus potential with great shape last summer, his increased hand speed has added power to the offering, which has flashed at least plus potential. Aiken has added strength to his large, angular 6-foot-3 frame. The UCLA commit has struck out 20 of the 31 hitters (65 percent) he has faced in 8 2/3 innings against 2 walks. He ranked No. 8 on BA’s overall Top 30 draft prospects list in our Early Draft Preview in February, and he has managed to improve his already robust stock.

[ace3113]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140318&content_id=69552214&notebook_id=69553420&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

Injuries can change Draft landscape in a snap

 

It's an unavoidable occurrence, both among potential draftees and across baseball: Best laid plans change because of injury.

 

This early spring is no different, with several potential Draft prospects having already landed on the shelf. There have been maladies of all different shapes and sizes. Here are updates on four intriguing Draft prospects.

 

Mac Marshall, ranked No. 34 on MLB.com's Top 50 Draft Prospects list put out last fall, is considered one of the better high school left-handers in the class. The Georgia high schooler was dealing with an ankle sprain early on, but even though he was pitching with a brace, that seemed to have no ill effects, as he struck out 12 two Fridays ago and 10 this past Friday with a fastball that touched 93 mph and a solid-average breaking ball.

 

Derek Fisher came in at No. 15 on that Top 50, the third-highest-ranked college hitter on the list. The University of Virginia outfielder is out four to six weeks after breaking the hamate bone in his right hand against Duke the weekend of March 8. Keep in mind, once Fisher is back, it often takes those with this injury a while to get their power stroke back.

 

"There probably have been a lot of guys who've seen him already," one cross-checker said about how this will impact Fisher, Draft-wise. "The clubs that feel really comfortable with him could see it as a bonus. Those that haven't might be chasing their tails."

 

Colorado high school lefty David Peterson is hoping to be back on the mound at some point pre-Draft. The nearly 6-foot-7 southpaw from Regis High School suffered a broken fibula in his right leg and had surgery to put in a stainless-steel plate and nine screws two weeks ago. Peterson is currently in a boot and is only restricted by what he can tolerate, pain-wise. He's hoping to possibly pitch in the postseason at the end of the spring, though getting healthy will be his first order of business.

 

Chad Sobotka, from the University of South Carolina-Upstate, will not pitch this season thanks to a fractured vertebra in his back. He'll make a full recovery, but not in time to pitch collegiate ball this spring. Upstate head coach Matt Fincher didn't sound like a guy who expected to have his ace back for another year.

 

"He's a professional-quality pitcher who's going to be ready to go, in my opinion, though that'll be a discussion he and his family will have," Fincher said. "Obviously, we'd love to have him back. But I'm appreciative with the way he's handled himself in this program. I want whatever he wants. He's thrown in our tightest situations the last two years, so he has good collegiate experience at this level. It might be time for him to go out and see what he can do."

 

California swing offers good looks at prep talent

 

It's a trip many a scouting director will make this spring, a journey down the West Coast to see some of the best high school talent this Draft class has to offer.

 

Last week was a perfect example, when over the course of a few days, a scout could hustle to see Brady Aiken in Southern California on Tuesday, run up north to see Jacob Gatewood in Fresno on Wednesday, then scoot back down south to watch Alex Jackson in action on Thursday.

 

Aiken, No. 9 on the MLB.com Draft Top 50, has already created some early buzz by coming out of the chute throwing well, especially in terms of velocity. He's yet to get completely stretched out, starting with a short relief outing, but on Tuesday, he did get through four innings. Aiken struck out eight and allowed just one hit and one walk in the outing.

 

"He hasn't pitched a full game yet," a scouting director said. "But he has a plus fastball and a plus curveball. Those are two good things to start with, especially coming from a 6-foot-5 left-hander."

 

Aiken has been cranking it up to 96-97 mph at times in these shorter outings, though the scouting director noted that having him sit 91-93 mph with better fastball command and that plus curve over a full game might be something teams would rather see.

 

Many scouts went north to watch Gatewood, the prep shortstop ranked No. 7. While Gatewood has considerable raw tools, most notably his power, there have been some concerns raised about his ability to hit enough to tap into that power, which has gotten a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. There's also the question -- largely because of his size -- of whether he'll be able to play shortstop, but that's something one scouting director said you can get lost worrying about at this juncture.

 

"You could go in there and focus on whether he's a shortstop and lose perspective of what he could be at the next level," the director said. "He has big-time raw power; his BP is pretty electric. There have been guys like that in the past, and they went out and became stars. We need to see him play more."

 

After Gatewood's game, it was time for the trek back south to see Jackson. The No. 3 prospect on the Top 50, Jackson went 3-for-5 on Thursday with a double, triple and home run for Rancho Bernardo High School. It's no surprise that he's off to a good start with the bat. Few question Jackson's ability to be an offensive player at the next level. The question that some will want to try to answer before the Draft: Can he stay behind the plate?

 

"He's a good hitter," the scouting director said. "Is he a catcher? I'm still unsure."

[ace3113]

http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20140314&content_id=69290466&notebook_id=69289964&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

Chavis' bat has high school shortstop on rise

 

Shortstop Michael Chavis, out of Sprayberry High in Marietta, Ga., made a name for himself by winning the home run derby at the Perfect Game All-American Classic last August. He beat out an impressive field that included likely 2014 first-rounders Braxton Davidson, Michael Gettys and Alex Jackson.

 

Though scouts weren't ready to put Chavis in their class as a prospect then, that's changing now. Three different scouting directors cited him as a high schooler who has significantly improved his Draft status this year, with one saying the Clemson recruit could go as high as the early teens in the first round.

 

Chavis has gotten stronger, now carrying 205 pounds on his 6-foot frame, and he's off to a blazing start. Though high school stats carry little weight, it's hard not to admire his .682/.774/1.136 line through eight games, with as many homers as strikeouts (two) in 22 at-bats.

 

"He puts on a power display in batting practice," an area scout said. "Sprayberry is about 350 feet into the gap, and then there's a six-lane highway snug up against left field. He hits balls up and over the highway! You think you're watching a pro guy by the way he takes BP.

 

"When the game's on, any pitch mid-plate in, he hurts the ball. I saw one night where he hit two home runs, and it was eight or nine hundred feet of home runs. Like most high school power hitters, he has a hole away, and that's what people wondered about coming into this year. It's still there some, but last year he missed those pitches, and this year he drives them to the opposite field. If they're up, he'll hit them out."

 

Chavis has solid all-around tools. He's an average runner out of the batter's box but has an extra gear once he gets going. His strong arm allows him to play anywhere on the diamond, and the only real question now is where he'll wind up.

 

He'll definitely move from shortstop at the next level, and scouts are split on whether he can play second base or will have to move to third. The area scout compared him to Jedd Gyorko, offensively and defensively, though Chavis has more athleticism.

 

"You could put Michael at second base, and he'll give you 200 percent," the scout said. "I think he's a little too stiff in his hips and back to play second base, turn the double play. I think you move him to third base. He can throw, his hands are good, he has a live body. He just doesn't have the actions for shortstop or second base around the bag."

 

While Chavis would have more defensive value at second base, he still should provide more than enough offense if he winds up at the hot corner.

 

"He has very fast hands and wrists, and a strong lower body," the scout said. "He has good hitter's makeup. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he goes in the first round. Coming in, I thought we'd have a shot at him in the second or third round, but he's not going to get there."

 

First-round talent on display in Tallahassee

 

From a scout's perspective, games don't get much better than North Carolina State against Florida State on Friday night in Tallahassee, Fla.

 

The Wolfpack, ranked No. 5 in the nation by Baseball America, boast the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 First-Year Player Draft -- left-hander Carlos Rodon -- and likely the first college position player who will be selected -- shortstop Trea Turner. The No. 2 Seminoles will start right-hander Luke Weaver, who projects to go in the second half of the first round.

 

Rodon vs. Weaver may actually take a backseat to Friday night's Vanderbilt-LSU matchup, with Tyler Beede facing Aaron Nola, but plenty of evaluators plan on flocking to Florida State. Rodon is in the mix for few teams because the Astros are expected to grab him with their third straight No. 1 overall choice, but most clubs will be in position to consider Turner and/or Weaver.

 

The fastest runner in the Draft, Turner has fully recovered from a high ankle sprain that bothered him last spring and summer. But while he's doing a great job of making contact, batting .350 with just two strikeouts in 73 plate appearances, he's not hitting the ball with authority. Though he has gap power and top-of-the-line speed, Turner has just one extra-base hit (a double) and is slugging .367.

 

"I'm actually going there to see Turner face a couple of good pitchers," one scouting director said. "I haven't seen Turner yet. We have mixed reports so far, especially on his bat. I didn't love his bat during the summer, but he also was hurt a little bit. Power isn't going to be part of his game, but he's got to hit enough to bat at the top of the order.

 

"He's running better than he was last summer. I've heard mixed reports on his defense, with some guys saying he'll stay at shortstop and others saying he's just average. Like a lot of guys at the top of the Draft, there are a lot of questions with Turner. But to me, the only two shortstops who could go in the first round are Turner and [Florida high schooler] Nick Gordon."

 

The early reports on Weaver are similar to those from his sophomore season. He has gone 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 24 strikeouts in as many innings, showing a 92-93-mph fastball, a quality changeup and fine command. Scouts still wish he was bigger than 6-foot-2, 170 pounds and had a sharper breaking ball.

 

"Luke has been pretty much the same guy," an area scout said. "He has a live arm with a good fastball, but it's straight. You want a better breaking ball but he has a nasty cutter at 86-88 that's going to be his pitch. Some guys worry about his size and strength, but he's going to be a big boy. His best years as far as weight and durability are down the road.

 

"This year, he's kind of paced himself. For me, he's been treating the early season like it's Spring Training. He's been getting ready for Rodon and for everyone else he's got to face in the conference."

 

Likewise, Rodon's stock hasn't changed as he has gone 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30 innings through four starts. His command and consistency have wavered at times, but he's still sitting around 94 mph with his fastball and snapping off some nearly unhittable sliders.

 

"Everybody's talking like he's Stephen Strasburg and David Price, and he's not that for me," the scouting director said. "He's good, he's probably the No. 1 pick in the Draft, but he's just a notch below those guys. He's not burying his competition yet.

 

"I'm interested in seeing him this week. I imagine both these guys will step it up because they're facing each other."

[z3r0s]

Hey Ace, any interest in giving some free advise for this upcoming draft to a DDL member? Tried to PM you but it said your inbox was full.

[z3r0s]

Read through this thread. 8 pages worth of upcoming draft nuggets.

 

I defs have, this is more of a specific question . Can't let the other DDL'ers know my strats

[ace3113]

Bakuaskas just got reclassified for this draft and has some serious helium.

 

The strength of the prep class is the depth of arms, a group that has been bolstered with the reclassification of one of the top 2015 arms. Righthander Jacob Bukauskas has jumped into the mix for the top few rounds of the draft and made his regular season debut on Friday, sitting 93-97 mph over five innings and touching 98.

 

With Bukauskas reclassifying without being seen often by scouts on the showcase circuit, he created a stir among evaluators by running his fastball into the mid-90s during two early-season scrimmages. He was primarily 89-91 this summer at Perfect Game Junior National, and his velocity jumped over the offseason.

 

The Stone Bridge High (Ashburn, Va.) product’s season began against archrival Madison High (Vienna, Va.) and he came out with premium velocity. All but two of his 19 fastballs in the first inning were between 95-97 mph, with the other two at 94. Bukauskas sustained his velocity well, sitting 93-97 on the day and hitting 97 mph in his final inning on his 78th pitch. He has elite arm speed and the ball jumps out of his hand. Bukauskas, who exclusively throws four-seamers, has boring action to his fastball.

 

His best offspeed pitch on the day was an 84-85 mph changeup that he showed good feel for, doubling up on the pitch to the lefthanded-hitting No. 3 hitter.

 

“It was an average pitch on Friday and has a chance to be better in the future, too,” an American League crosschecker said.

 

His feel for the offering improved significantly over the offseason.

 

“Over this winter I threw the changeup a lot and it has become probably my best pitch,” Bukauskas said. “It has a lot of down-and-in movement to righthanded hitters. I like it. It is a good pitch to lefthanded hitters. I threw it a lot last year but am going to use it a lot more this year.”

 

Bukauskas’ 81-85 mph slider was a below-average offering on the day. He often choked the offering and it did not show much shape, but it did sharpen towards the end of his outing, flashing average.

 

“The breaking ball was not good overall, but if you like him you could project solid-average.” the crosschecker said.

 

Evaluators said that the breaking ball had shown better in previous outings, and it was still the first game of the season. Given his hand speed, it is reasonable to believe the breaking ball has significant room to improve.

 

Bukauskas threw strikes on 61 percent of his pitches and walked two, against 11 strikeouts, which was nearly half (48 percent) of the hitters he faced. His delivery has effort to it with a head snap and rigidity to his front side. Working from the far first-base side of the rubber, Bukauskas also throws slightly across his body and showed a tendency to peel off his fastball early, spinning towards first base. He occasionally got under his fastball, losing plane and causing the pitch to be up and flatten.

 

His delivery also has some drop-and-drive tendencies that Bukauskas and his longtime pitching coach John Pinkman have worked on. The two began working together when Bukauskas was 8 years old.

 

“We worked more on maintaining a more direct approach to the plate as far as dropping and driving,” Pinkman said. “He has made that adjustment really well and it is something we will continue to work on. When he stays in line and better direction and holds his front side longer, he has tremendous command.”

 

Bukauskas, who calls his own game, located his fastball almost exclusively away from hitters, both left and righthanded swingers. He demonstrated that he could pitch effectively to either outer third of the plate, locating primarily to his glove side against a lineup that leaned to the right side.

 

Listed at 6-foot-1, Bukauskas has an athletic, well-proportioned build with sloped shoulders and some room to gain strength in his upper half. He has solid, well-developed legs and a strong rear end that looks built to handle innings. He has gained significant strength over the last year.

 

“I worked on squatting a lot this winter and I attribute most of the velocity to that,” Bukauskas said. “I was 170 pounds last year and I am about 195 now. I have put on about 25 pounds over the last year.”

 

His favorite player is another smaller, well-built righthander from the neighboring state of Tennessee.

 

“I love Sonny Gray because I am not the biggest guy in the world and I am about the same size as him,” Bukauskas said. “We have power fastballs and he has a power breaking ball, which is what I am striving for.”

 

With his increased velocity, Bukauskas is in the mix for the top few rounds after deciding to reclassify last summer with the intent of reaching North Carolina’s campus after three years in high school.

 

“As we went through, we thought ‘why stay stagnant in high school and not progress as a player?’,” Bukauskas said. “The transition from junior to senior year happened when we wanted to improve as a player and didn’t want to stay in high school for another year, honestly. High school baseball you can’t get much better. You can plateau. (North Carolina) coach Forbes is one of the best pitching coaches in the country.”

 

Although scouts would have to do their due diligence on Bukauskas because he entered the spring as a draft-eligible player with whom they had little history, the amount of attention he received changed dramatically over the offseason.

 

“This is about a month and a half ago that I have a Stalker gun at my facility and it is automatic,” Pinkman said. “Jacob throws it 99. I asked a scout if he wouldn’t mind getting his gun because I don’t think we have seen these numbers on this gun before. He thought that was a great idea and put his gun up. It read 98. That was when the whole world changed for him.”

 

The 17-year-old Bukauskas was slightly old for his junior class but is now one of the youngest prospects in the 2014 class and won’t be 18 until a month after the minor league season.

[GD]

Scrabble 4.0

[ace3113]

Scrabble 4.0

 

At first I thought his name was Jakubauskas like the crappy pitcher from the Mariners/Orioles.

[ace3113]

Some video of Bukauskas.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8VvRhJChF4

[ace3113]

Gareth Morgan

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gza_fhXUiQ

[ace3113]

Stud catching prospect Aramis Garcia.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6h660eKtOI

[ace3113]

[ace3113]

[ace3113]

Some clips of the top prospects from the NHSI.

 

 

[ace3113]

 

[ace3113]

 

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-7-2/

 

Cal Poly lefthander Matt Imhof, who Jim Shonerd profiled in our latest issue, turned in another dominant start, throwing his first career shutout against UC Davis. The tall, lanky lefthander continues to rise up draft boards and wrested the title of NCAA strikeout leader away from Texas Christian lefthander Brandon Finnegan with 13 strikeouts over the weekend. His strikeout rates sit at 13.4 per-nine and 39.5 percent of all hitters faced with a 4.8 strikeout-walk ratio and 1.05 ERA. He has a pair of offspeed offerings that show above-average potential.

 

Sean Newcomb earned run watch: The Hartford lefthander threw seven no-hit innings against Stony Brook, striking out eight against four walks. Newcomb has allowed an unearned run in his 39 2/3 innings. His peripherals have remained fairly constant throughout the season, with 10.4 strikeouts per-nine and a 2.4 strikeout-walk ratio. His next start will come against Maine next weekend.

 

Oregon State outfielder Michael Conforto continues to hit, reaching base in more than half of his plate appearances against Arizona, which is also true for him on the season. The lefthanded-hitting Conforto has plus bat speed and a .389/.548/.544 line in a pitcher’s park (90 park factor). His discerning eye and contact ability have enabled him to walk in 23 percent of his plate appearances against a strikeout rate of 9.5 percent.

 

“He can really hit, there’s no questioning that,” a National League crosschecker said. “He is one of the top hitters in the country, but we will have to wait and see how much power he is going to hit for.”

 

Despite at least plus raw power, Conforto has not hit for as much power this year as he did as a freshman and sophomore, when he combined to hit 24 home runs and 30 combined doubles/triples. Conforto has one home run, though he hit his seventh double over the weekend. He is a below-average runner with an average arm that is likely limited to left field. Multiple teams have indicated Conforto is one of the top three college position players on their boards.

 

As a righthanded-hitting college first baseman, Sacramento State’s Rhys Hoskins is fighting a tough profile, but Hoskins has hit this year and took advantage of the friendly offensive confines at New Mexico State (133 park factor). Hoskins has a .375/.457/.650 line after hitting three doubles and three home runs this weekend with a 16-percent strikeout rate and 12.8 walk rate on the season. He has plus raw power and a swing based more on strength than pure bat speed. At 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, Hoskins is a physical, strong-bodied player with below average speed and a below-average arm.

 

A trio of Indiana position players—catcher Kyle Schwarber, third baseman Dustin DeMuth and first baseman/outfielder Sam Travis—had strong weekends against Ohio State, combining to go 21-for-38 with a pair of home runs. The righthanded-hitting Travis led the charge with eight base knocks on the weekend, although his at least average power potential has yet to emerge in game action. He has eight extra-base hits on the year but zero home runs. Travis, who entered the season with an isolated slugging of .210, has an ISO of .88 this year with a .373/.440/.461 line and more walks than strikeouts. Travis is young for the college class and won’t be 21 until nearly the end of the minor league season.

 

The lefthanded-hitting Schwarber has also controlled the strike zone, walking in 15.8 of his plate appearances against a 7.5 percent strikeout rate. Schwarber, who has plus-plus raw power, hit his fourth home run of the season, giving him a .333/.450/.545 line on the year. Along with Conforto, he is one of the top college bats in the crop and will likely be a first-rounder pick, though scouts question his ability to stick behind the plate.

 

The senior DeMuth, an unsigned eighth-round pick, has a .379/.433/.552 line with eight extra-base hits, but he has been reticent to take free passes like his teammates. DeMuth, who will be 23 during the minor league season, has walked in only 3.1 percent of his plate appearances against a 20.4 percent strikeout rate.

 

Weekend Stats:

 

Tyler Beede, RHP: L 5ip 5h 3er 3bb 4so

Aaron Brown, LHP: W 8.1ip 3h 1er 1bb 8so

Michael Cederoth, RHP: 2sv 2.1ip 2h 0er 0bb 2so

Andrew Chin, LHP: 7.2ip 3h2er 2bb 8so

Sam Conrood, RHP: L 5ip 7h 1er 2bb 11so

Eric Fedde, RHP: W 7ip 4h 2er 2bb 3so

Brandon Finnegan, LHP: W 7ip 5h 1er 3bb 8so

Kyle Freeland, LHP: W 8ip 5h 1er 1bb 10so

Parker French, RHP: W 7ip 6h 1er 2bb 2so

Jace Fry, LHP: W 7ip 1h 0er 2bb 5so

Aaron Garza, RHP: L 8ip 5h 1er 0bb 0so

Daniel Gosset, RHP: W 8ip 8h 1er 1bb 6so

Jeff Hoffman, RHP: W 7ip 6h 2er 1bb 6so

Matt Imhof, LHP: W 9ip 4h 0er 0bb 13so

Jacob Lindgren, LHP: W 4ip 1h 0er 0bb 8so

Daniel Mengden, RHP: 7ip 3h 2er 3bb 10so

Sean Newcomb, W LHP: 7ip 0h 0er 4bb 8so

Aaron Nola, RHP: L 8.2ip 6h 2er 1bb 5so

Jeremy Null, RHP: W 7ip 5h 0er 1bb 8so

AJ Reed, LHP: W 8ip 9h 2er 1bb 7so

Carlos Rodon, LHP: 6ip 4h 1er 3bb 5so

Andrew Suarez, LHP: W 8ip 5h 1er 0bb 3so

AJ Vanegas, RHP: SV 1.2ip 3h 0er 0bb 3so

Luke Weaver, RHP: W 9ip 1h 0er 2bb 4so

Ben Weztler, LHP: L 7.1ip 3h 0er 4bb 6so

 

Michael Conforto, OF: 7-15 1(2b) 3rbi 2so 1bb

Austin Cousino, OF: 5-11 1rbi 1so 1bb 1sb

JD Davis, 1B/3B: 5-12 2(2b) 3rbi 0so 1bb 1sb

Dylan Davis, OF: 7-15 1hr 3(2b) 8rbi 1so 1bb 1sb

Dustin Demuth, 3B: 7-12 2hr 1(2b) 3rbi 2so 0bb

Aramis Garcia, C: 3-12 1(2b) 3so 1bb

Casey Gillaspie, 1B: 5-11 1hr 2rbi 1so 1bb 1sb

Grayson Greiner, C: 7-16 1hr 1(2b) 7rbi 2so 0bb

Rhys Hoskins, 1B: 8-12 3hr 3(2b) 12rbi 1so 3bb

Joey Pankake, 3B: 6-13 3rbi 2so 1bb

Mike Papi, OF: 6-10 2(2b) 3rbi 0so 1bb 1sb

Max Pentecost, C: 8-14 1hr 1(2b) 3rbi 0so 0bb 1sb

Kyle Schwarber, C/1B: 6-12 1hr 2rbi 0so 2bb

Sam Travis, 1B: 8-14 4rbi 1bb 1so 2sb

Trea Turner, SS: 4-13 1(2b) 1rbi 2so 0bb 1sb

Bradley Zimmer, OF: 5-11 1(2b) 1ebi 2so 2bb

[ace3113]

If the Jays end up being as bad this year as some are predicting it might be good to take a look at the 2015 draft list.

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/01/college-baseball-preview-top-30-sophomores-2550680.html

Alex Bregman, SS, LSU

 

Voted Freshman of the Year by many outlets, the 6’-1” right-hander had an outstanding freshman year, hitting .369/.417/.546 over 67 games with 18 doubles, seven triples, six home runs and 16 stolen bases. He drew 24 walks to just 25 strikeouts, showing an advanced approach at the plate. His 104 hits ranked second in the nation. He had a 23-game hitting streak during which he hit .495/.542/.742, and he also reached base in 31 straight games. LSU lost a lot of impact players to the draft and graduation, and Bregman will be the leader of the team, along with staff ace Aaron Nola, in hopes of guiding the Tigers to Omaha again. I got a chance to ask Alex Bregman a couple of questions about the upcoming season. See the interview here.

 

Skye Bolt, OF, North Carolina

 

Like Bregman, Bolt put together an impressive freshman year and also led his team to Omaha, hitting .321/.418/.491 over 54 games with 14 doubles, six home runs, 51 RBI and 10 stolen bases. He also showed an advanced approach at the plate by drawing 32 walks to just 28 strikeouts. The 6’-2”, switch-hitter should develop more power, and his athleticism, strong arm and instincts allow him to play all three outfield spots. A high-character kid with a ton of upside who was also a member of Collegiate Team USA.

 

Thomas Eshelman, RHP, Cal State Fullerton

 

The 6’-3” right-hander put up video-game numbers during his freshman campaign. Over 17 starts, he went 12-3 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and allowed just one home run over 115.2 innings. The most shocking stat may have been his strikeout-to-walk ratio: 83 strikeouts to just three walks. With his simple mechanics, he repeats his delivery well and locates his pitches with pinpoint control. Not a power pitcher, as his fastball sits in the 88-91 mph range, he relies on his ability to mix his pitches well and attacks hitters inside and out. He relied mostly on a fastball/change-up combo and used his curveball and cutter as complementary offerings.

 

Justin Garza, RHP, Cal State Fullerton

 

With a compact delivery, the 5’-11”, 170 pound right-hander gets the most out of his frame. His fastball sits in the 90-94 mph range due to his quick arm, and his change-up shows plus potential with good depth. He put together a monster of a freshman season, going 12-0 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 95 K/17 BB over 115 innings. The Titans are going to be tough to beat with Garza, Eshelman and incoming freshman, Phil Bickford, at the top of the rotation.

 

Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona State

 

A 6’-4”, 215 pound power right-hander, Burr was untouchable his freshman season as opponents hit just .141 against him. Over 31 appearances, he posted a 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and had 60 K/23 BB over 45 innings. Playing for Collegiate Team USA, he was even more impressive, striking out 20 over 9.2 innings, allowing just two hits. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and can touch 97 mph, although he can get wild when he overthrows. He adds a slurve that has plus potential and wipes out hitters when on.

 

D.J. Stewart, OF, Florida State

 

A Freshman All-American by Baseball America, Stewart is built like a tank at 6’-0” and 230 pounds. The left-handed hitter put up a slash line of .364/.469/.560 over 60 games with 25 doubles, five home runs, 59 RBI and eight stolen bases. He has a great approach at the plate as he drew 38 walks to 40 strikeouts. A very good athlete for his size, he has been clocked at 6.84 in the 60 (although that was in high school) and his arm at 90 mph from the outfield. He generates a ton of power from the left side and he should be able to stick in a corner outfield spot, most likely left field.

 

Ryan Kellogg, LHP, Arizona State

 

The 6’-5”, 220 pound southpaw tossed a no-hitter on March 23 against third-ranked Oregon State. For the year, he went 11-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 54 K/17 BB over 103 innings. Not a power pitcher, as his fastball sits in the 88-91 mph range, he relies on his command and ability to mix it up on the mound. He adds a tight curveball that complements his fastball and his change-up is still developing. With his size and easy delivery, there is still projection left.

 

Cole Irvin, LHP, Oregon

 

With four pitches in his arsenal, the 6’-4”, 185 pound southpaw relies on his control and ability to mix his pitches well rather than overpowering hitters. His fastball sits in the 88-92 mph range and his change-up is already a plus pitch. He adds a low-80s slider that also shows plus potential, and his curveball is still inconsistent right now but looks to be a quality offering, as well. He was a workhorse his freshman year, going 12-3 over 16 starts with a 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 60 K/22 BB over 116 innings.

 

Andrew Moore, RHP, Oregon State

 

While he may be a bit undersized (5’-11”, 185 pounds) for a frontline starter, the right-hander was a workhorse for the Beavers as a freshman, logging 131 innings and posting a 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 14-2 record, which earned him first-team Freshman All-American honors from Baseball America. He added 72 K/28 BB and opponents hit just .207 against him. With the huge workload he took on as a freshman, it will be interesting to see how he responds his sophomore year.

[ace3113]

Continued.

 

Hunter Virant, LHP, UCLA

 

Coming out of high school, the 6’-4” southpaw was one of the better prep arms available in the 2012 MLB draft. With a strong commitment to UCLA, he fell to round 11 to the Houston Astros but decided to forgo the draft. He features a low-90s fastball but his best pitch may be his change-up, which sits 77-79 mph with great deception. He adds a mid-70s, loopy curveball that has potential to be a very good offering with continued work. He didn’t see much time as a freshman, tossing 3.1 scoreless innings, striking out one to four walks. His command can be an issue but he has a lot of upside due to his size.

 

Cody Poteet, RHP, UCLA

 

Like Virant, Poteet was a big name in high school, impressing at every event he participated in. His strong commitment to UCLA also led him to drop in the draft, ultimately going in round 27 to the Washington Nationals. With a mid-90s fastball that can touch 97 mph, and a plus breaking ball, the 6’-1” right-hander has the stuff. As a midweek starter and reliever for the Bruins last year, he posted a 4.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 56 K/31 BB over 70.2 innings, allowing just 57 hits. A very good athlete, he has been clocked at 6.83 in the 60 and was a great hitter in high school.

 

Trent Thornton, RHP, North Carolina

 

At 6’-0” and 170 pounds, Thornton is a starter now, but some think he will be a reliever at the next level due to his effort in his delivery. The right-hander had a sensational freshman season, going 12-1 with a 1.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 81 K/19 BB over 91.2 innings as a mid-week starter and reliever. His fastball sits in the 90-94 mph range and he adds a power curve, sitting in the upper 70s.

 

Matthew Crownover, LHP, Clemson

 

Fifteen months after having Tommy John surgery, Crownover was named to several Freshman All-American teams after going 7-3 with a 2.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 45 K/17 BB over 70 innings for Clemson. At 6’-0” and 210 pounds, the southpaw has an effortless delivery and just knows how to pitch. His fastball sits in the low 90s and his change-up shows plus potential. He adds a mid-70s curveball and he has great command of all three. A very good athlete who repeats his delivery well and is confident on the mound.

 

C.J. Hinojosa, SS, Texas

 

After a decorated career at Klein Collins HS in Texas, the 5’-11”, 190 pound right-hander was drafted late, in round 26 by the Houston Astros, due to his strong commitment to Texas. A very good athlete, who runs a 6.71/60 and has had his arm clocked at 90 mph from the infield, he has a chance to stick at shortstop but could transition to second base where his future power will play well. As a freshman, he hit .309/.368/.414 over 51 games with 14 extra-base hits and 18 walks to just 26 strikeouts. A solid approach at the plate, as well as the overall game.

 

Riley Ferrell, RHP, TCU

 

The 6’-1”, 200 pound right-hander turned heads when he was hitting 98 mph with his fastball for Collegiate Team USA. He sits in the mid 90s with it and it has nasty life to hit. His secondary offerings are still developing and there are questions if he is a starter or reliever at the next level. Over 32.2 innings of relief as a freshman, he posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP with 39 K/11 BB.

 

P.J. Conlon, LHP, San Diego

 

A 6’-0”, 180 pound southpaw who started the season in the pen and finished as the Friday night starter, Conlon features a low-90s fastball with movement and he adds solid secondaries in a curveball and change-up. He repeats his delivery well and has good command of his stuff because of it. He posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with 71 K/28 BB over 87.1 innings. He was dominant in WCC play, going 6-0 with a 1.28 ERA over 49.1 innings.

 

Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville

 

At 6’-3” and 205 pounds, the right-hander showed an electric fastball at the Cape, hitting 97 mph and sitting 92-94 with life. His slider is a solid offering and his change-up is still developing but some believe he can be a starter due to his frame and easy delivery. Had 21 K/6 BB over 13 innings of relief at the Cape. H was a midweek starter and reliever for Louisville his freshman year, posting a 2.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with 55 K/25 BB over 54.2 innings.

 

Rhett Wiseman, OF, Vanderbilt

 

A very good athlete, the 5’-11”, 190 pound left-handed hitter impressed at the Cape Cod League, hitting .294/.366/.515 with 14 doubles, four home runs and 12 stolen bases over 41 games. He still is considered raw in areas but has the tools to put it all together and can generate good power from the left side. As a freshman for the ‘Dores, he hit .289/.360/.438 over 121 at-bats with three home runs and was 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts. Should be a big part of the offense this year.

 

David Thompson, 3B, Miami

 

The 6’-2”, 210 pound right-hander has tremendous power potential and even broke Alex Rodriguez’ school record for career home runs with 55 at Westminster HS in Florida. He entered his freshman season with the Hurricanes as their clean-up hitter and thrived all year. Over 52 games, he hit .286 with 14 doubles, six home runs and 46 RBI. He reached base in his last 28 games. He did have shoulder surgery for a torn labrum on his throwing arm over the summer but is said to be at 100 percent and should resume his duties at third base. Big-time power potential.

 

Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona

 

The 6’-1“, 175 pound right-hander became the first freshman ever to win the batting title at the Cape Cod League. Over 40 games, he hit .375 and stole 16 bases. As a freshman for the Wildcats, he hit .336/.398/.392 over 55 games with 11 stolen bases and 20 walks to just 13 strikeouts. A very good defender with range, soft hands and a solid arm, Newman should be able to stick at shortstop and he profiles to a top of the order hitter with a great approach and above-average speed. One of those high IQ, fundamentally sound players.

 

Joe McCarthy, OF, Virginia

 

A three-sport star in high school, the 6’-3”, 215 pound left-hander is a terrific athlete and runs a 6.69/60. He has a great approach at the plate and more power will come very soon. Over 60 games as a freshman, he hit .336/.469/.453 with 10 doubles, four home runs, 51 RBI and 11 stolen bases. He also drew 54 walks to just 32 strikeouts and is one of the better hitters in college. His speed, instincts and arm allow him to play all three outfield spots but a corner is where he will likely end up.

 

Steven Duggar, OF, Clemson

 

A great athlete who runs a 6.64/60 and has a very strong arm, Duggar is a 6’-2”, 190 pound left-handed hitter with excellent bat speed. Over 62 games as a freshman, he hit .300/.359/.380 and stole 15 bases. He has a solid approach at the plate, and the bat speed allows him to wait on his pitch and drive the ball to all fields. He recorded nine assists in the outfield and has all the tools to hold down a corner outfield spot, possibly center field. An exciting player with a lot of intangibles.

 

Xavier Turner, 3B, Vanderbilt

 

A mature player with a great approach at the plate, Turner’s bat speed allows him to drive the ball to all fields, although the lack of present power may force him off the hot corner. At 6’-2” and 220 pounds, the power could come but he has the actions and arm to handle second base, or a corner outfield spot where his speed would play well. Over 59 games as a freshman, he hit .324/.387/.370 with 22 stolen bases and drew 19 walks to just 22 strikeouts. He profiles as a top-of-the-order, high-average hitter with good speed.

 

James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA

 

The 6’-4”, 190 pound right-hander should be a weekend starter this year after impressing at the Cape. He showed a 92-94 mph fastball, a 81-84 mph sharp slider and his change-up has developed nicely, rounding out a three-pitch mix. He had 38 K/6 BB over 26 innings at the Cape, including the playoffs. As a freshman, he posted a 1.55 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and allowed just 19 hits over 40.2 innings with 53 K/24 BB. A lot of upside due to his size, easy delivery and stuff.

 

Tate Matheny, OF, Missouri State

 

Drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in round 23 out of high school, his dad is Cardinals skipper Mike Matheny. Tate opted to forgo the draft and the move has already paid off. A second-team Freshman All-American by Baseball America, the 6’-0”, 190 pound right-hander hit .336/.396/.459 over 54 games with 14 doubles, four home runs and drew 22 walks. An aggressive player with a good approach at the plate, he also has a high game IQ having grown up around it.

 

Ian Happ, 2B, Cincinnati

 

A first-team Freshman All-American by Baseball America, the switch-hitter brings speed, power and an advanced approach at the plate with him to the field. He also has a strong arm and even tossed an inning of relief in the Cape, striking out two batters. Over 56 games as a freshman, he hit .322/.451/.483 with six home runs and 25 stolen bases, and he drew a whopping 47 walks to 32 strikeouts. He was named to the Cape Cod League All-Star team after hitting .293/.359/.469 over 39 games with five home runs and 13 stolen bases. A great all-around player who should stick at second base.

 

Landon Lassiter, 3B, North Carolina

 

After playing most of last season at shortstop, the 6’-1”, 170 pound right-hander will man the hot corner this year for the Tar Heels. One of the better hitters in college, he hit .358/.491/.447 over 69 games as a freshman and drew a silly 53 walks. With an advanced and patient approach, Lassiter sprays the ball to all fields and more power should come as he matures. A very good athlete, he has been clocked at 6.89 in the 60.

 

Kyle Twomey, LHP, USC

 

A former third-round pick by the Athletics, Twomey has a lot to like as a prospect. With a smooth, easy delivery, his fastball sits 91-94 mph and there is still room for more in the tank with his minimal effort. He adds a change-up that shows plus potential, and his curveball is heading in the same direction. At 6’-3” and 170 pounds, the right-hander has a projectable frame and a good feel for the mound. Was impressive at the Cape, striking out 31 over 23 innings.

 

Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

Vanderbilt’s likely Sunday starter, Buehler is a 6’-1”, 160 pound right-hander with a lot of projection due to his smooth, effortless delivery, four-pitch mix and ability to throw any of them in any situation. His fastball sits 92-94 mph and can touch 96 with life. His curveball shows plus potential with depth and late bite and both his change-up and slider are still developing. He never rattles and shows great composure and mound presence. Posted a 3.14 ERA, 1.41 WHIP with 57 K/25 BB over 63 innings as a midweek starter and reliever as a freshman.

 

Max Schrock, 2B, South Carolina

 

The 5’-9”, 180 pound left-handed hitter started the season in a funk. Through his first 99 at-bats, he was hitting just .212. He then hit .336 the rest of the way, earning second-team Freshman All-American honors from Baseball America. He runs a 6.86/60 and stole 14 bases as a freshman. He also drew 36 walks to just 23 strikeouts, showing an advanced approach at the plate. He should be able to stick at second base and he has some pop in his bat as he hit six home runs last year.

[ace3113]

Keith Law's Top 5 prospects

 

1. Brady Aiken

H.S. LHP

 

Analysis: He's a 6-foot-4 left-hander who's hitting 95 mph regularly with his fastball, and he complements that with a plus curveball and future-plus changeup along with a good delivery and some projection remaining. He's not Clayton Kershaw, but it's a pretty good version of the Kershaw Starter Kit.

 

2. Tyler Kolek

H.S. RHP

 

Analysis: Kolek is huge: 6-foot-5, 270 pounds. He hits 100 mph and hasn't surrendered a hit all spring.

 

3. Carlos Rodon

N.C. St. LHP

 

Analysis: Rodon came into the year as the consensus No. 1 prospect, but hasn't shown the same stuff he had last spring or summer, sitting with an average fastball, a great but not grade-80 slider and below-average command.

 

4. Tyler Beede

Vandy RHP

 

Analysis: The first-round pick from 2011 who turned down the Blue Jays out of high school seems to have put it all together this spring, with three above-average pitches and finally the command we've all been waiting to see from him.

 

5. Grant Holmes

H.S. RHP

 

Analysis: Holmes hit 98 mph earlier this spring and works with an above-average to plus fastball regularly, showing great feel and control, and he has a body that's close to ready now.

 

6. Jeff Hoffman

E. Carolina RHP

 

Analysis: Hoffman is very athletic and can hit 97, but the plus breaking ball he showed in the Cape Cod League last summer hasn't been there this spring, and hitters have squared up his fastball too often.

 

7. Alex Jackson

H.S. C

 

Analysis: Jackson might not catch at the next level, but he should hit; he has a strong, simple swing and a long track record of performing in summer events dating back to 2012.

 

8. Luis Ortiz

H.S. RHP

 

Analysis: Ortiz, like Holmes, has a mature body already, and will show an above-average fastball and breaking ball combination, with an improving feel for how to pitch.

 

9. Nick Gordon

H.S. SS

 

Analysis: Son of Tom "Flash" Gordon -- and brother of Dodgers infielder Dee Gordon -- Nick is up to 91 mph off the mound but a better all-around prospect as an above-average defender at short who can hit, and he has added enough muscle to produce at least doubles power.

 

10. Dylan Cease

H.S. RHP

 

Analysis: Cease's status here is tentative, as he missed his most recent start because of a tender elbow. But he had gotten up to 100 mph earlier this spring and had dramatically reduced the violence in his delivery.

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-8-3/

 

Louisville righthander Nick Burdi saw a significant amount of action out of the bullpen over the weekend, throwing nearly five innings and continuing to strike out hitters at a prodigiously high rate against Memphis. He worked 1 2/3 innings on Friday and then the situation aligned for him to throw three full innings on Sunday. The Cardinals rallied from a 7-1 deficit in the eighth inning to tie the game in the ninth, allowing Burdi to take the mound in extra innings. His velocity was 96-100 mph over three innings, hitting 100 multiple times in every frame. Burdi’s 88-92 mph slider was at least a 70-grade offering, according to evaluators. The strong-bodied 6-foot-4, 215 pound Burdi struck out half of the 18 hitters he faced over the weekend. On the season, Burdi has struck out 47.5 percent of all hitters, while walking 8.5 percent. Evaluators believe Burdi, who has an unconventional, if not awkward, delivery, has little chance to start at the professional level, limiting his draft stock. But performances like these help his cause as a potential first-day selection, although the industry has moved away from drafting college closers high over the last five years.

 

Cornell righthander Brent Jones turned in one of the top performances of the weekend, throwing seven scoreless frames against Brown, allowing one hit. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound Jones started on five days’ rest and brandished 92-95 mph velocity with a high-70s curveball that has shown above-average potential. Jones, who faced questions about his strike-throwing ability with effort to his delivery, did not walk any of the 26 hitters he faced, striking out seven.

 

Although North Carolina State lefthander Carlos Rodon did not allow a walk for the first time this season, his strikeout rate continues to be significantly lower than last year’s loud totals after striking out five of the 36 batters he faced against Clemson. His 2.98 walks per-nine is the lowest rate of his career, although the difference is miniscule compared to his career rate of 3.13. But his strikeout rate this season sits at 9.93 per-nine against last year’s 12.51. On a percentage basis, Rodon struck out more than one-third of all hitters last year (33.9 percent) against one-quarter (25 percent) this season. His next start will be against Duke.

 

Sean Newcomb earned run watch: The Hartford lefthander surrendered his first earned run of the season against Maine, ending his stretch of 39 2/3 innings without an earned run to start the season by giving up four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings.

 

The Arkansas pitching duo of Chris Oliver and Jalen Beeks have very different body types and repertoires, though both produced similarly exemplary results against South Carolina, combining to strike out 19 with one run allowed in 17 innings. Oliver, who has an athletic, angular build with long extremities at 6-foot-4, 180 pounds, is a hard-throwing righthander with a slider that shows above-average potential. Beeks, a shorter, more physical lefthander with a strong lower half at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, has a fastball that can reach the low 90s. The two have produced very similar statistical seasons, both averaging 2.2 walks per-nine against with strikeout per-nine ratios between 6.9 and 7.0. Oliver is young for the class and won’t turn 21 until after the draft.

 

After allowing a pair of earned runs last weekend against Florida, Louisiana State righthander Aaron Nola threw eight shutout innings against Mississippi State, marking his sixth start in eight trips to the mound without allowing a run, earned or unearned. Nola lowered his ERA to 0.47 on the season. He has struck out one-third of all hitters this spring with a 6.45 strikeout-walk ratio.

 

Central Michigan righthander Jordan Foley entered the year with questions about his strike-throwing ability in the rotation after walking 5.5 per-nine over 128 innings in his first two years. Foley has effort in his delivery with some funk and a pronounced head snap from a high arm slot. But his control numbers have improved this year, reducing his walk rate to 3.3 per-nine while keeping his strikeout rate at nearly a punchout an inning (8.8 per-nine). Foley has power stuff, highlighted a fastball that regularly touches 95, with a split that has at least average potential and a slider that flashes above-average. He struck out 10 against Buffalo against two walks in nine innings.

 

Kentucky lefthander/first baseman A.J. Reed had another big weekend performance with the bat, hitting a home run in all three games to push his season total to an SEC-high 12. He is hitting .377/.507/.781 with 21 extra-base hits this season despite playing his home games in a pitchers’ park (89 park factor). Reed also has more walks (22) than strikeouts (21). Yet Reed has some length in his swing and some teams still prefer him on the mound, where he limits free passes (2.6 walks per-nine) with a three-pitch mix.

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-evansvilles-kyle-freeland/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlkFxxBAQHw

 

Combining impeccable command with plus stuff, Evansville lefthander Kyle Freeland produced one of the most dominant starts of the college season, striking out nearly half (47 percent) of the 32 Charlotte hitters he faced this past weekend in an economical complete-game effort.

 

“That was as overmatched as I have seen a decent D-1 college team in a long time outside of the upper-echelon pitchers like Stephen Strasburg, David Price and Carlos Rodon, when he is going good,” a National League scout said.

 

He displayed everything evaluators wanted to see, making Freeland a likely first-round pick with the potential to go in the top half of the round. Freeland garnered 22 swinging strikes on the day and retired 19 straight hitters at one point.

 

“I don’t know what more you could have seen on that day, his command and fastball life were really good and the slider was as good as I have seen,” the scout said. “I thought his command was as good as any pitcher I have seen, maybe not even just this year but in a long time.”

 

He was a strike-thrower from the first pitch, and his plus to plus-plus command has become a hallmark for Freeland, who threw strikes on 80 percent of his pitches. He threw 21 straight strikes spanning from the last hitter in the fourth to the second hitter of the seventh inning.

 

Freeland has thrown 71.8 percent strikes this season and more than two-thirds in every start this season. For context, the major league average strike percentage was 63.4 in 2013. No qualified major league starter in the last decade has thrown strikes at a higher clip than Freeland’s 71.8 percent clip (although Freeland’s rate spans just seven starts compared to a full major league season). The closest are Carlos Silva at 71.4 percent in 2005 and Cliff Lee at 71.1 percent in 2009.

 

All three of Freeland’s fastball components (velocity, life and command) were at least plus. Unlike many college starters, he showed the ability to get swings and misses with his fastball, producing six fastball whiffs on the day. His fastball sat 91-93 mph and touched 94-95, and he held that velocity throughout his nine innings and 97 pitches. Using both a two-seamer and four-seamer, Freeland showed varied fastball movement in every direction, featuring explosive cut and glove-side run on his four-seamer and arm-side run on his two-seamer. He produces downhill plane and sink, pitching in the lower half of the zone on both outer-thirds of the plate. Freeland, who works from the far third-base side of the rubber, creates deception in his delivery, and the ball jumps out of his hand. His fastball was very loud, as his high spin rate produced an audible cutting through the air.

 

His life and location produced 10 groundouts on the day without a single flyout to the outfield, although he did allow a hard lineout to an infielder. A soft lineout was the only other out needed on the day. He has a 1.68 groundball-to-flyball ratio on the season.

 

Freeland’s mid-80s slider was at least a plus offering, flashing at least a full grade higher. He complemented his slider with a 79-82 mph curveball that was also an above-average offering. His command of his secondary stuff was superb, as more than 80 percent of his offspeed stuff went for strikes, with 16 swinging strikes, and he located his breaking stuff to both sides of the plate. Freeland, who entered college with both a slider and curveball, used his slider as his out pitch.

 

“It usually depends on the count, but if I have him 0-2 or 1-2, I will probably go to the slider,” Freeland said. “My curveball is a good setup pitch into a changeup or the slider. But the curveball has gotten better and better because I have been constantly working on it. My slider is still my out pitch.”

 

His 86-89 mph changeup has also taken a step forward, and he showed strong feel for the offering.

 

“That was by far the best my changeup has felt all season long,” Freeland said.

 

The first few times Freeland threw the offering some evaluators weren’t completely sure what the offering was because of the velocity range, although it had considerable tumble.

 

“He threw it probably eight times and it had some late life to it, although it was a little firm,” Evansville coach Wes Carroll said. “It is just enough to keep guys off of his firm fastball and firm slider. The velocity will continue to drop on it the more and more he continues to develop it and work on it. With his athleticism, there is no doubt he will have a strong change if it is not there already.”

 

It all adds up to an athletic, polished lefthander with upside and command of a four-pitch mix who has performed in college, as Freeland has struck out 30.3 percent of all hitters against a 2 percent walk rate, a 15-1 strikeout-walk ratio. His strong performance extends beyond this spring and against a higher level of competition. Freeland had the lowest walk rate (0.90 walks per-nine) of any Cape Cod league pitcher with more than 30 innings last summer with a 12-1 strikeout-walk ratio in 40 innings.

 

Freeland is the next in a long line of Colorado pitchers who developed into high draft picks after leaving high school. The Phillies, who drafted Freeland in the 35th round, offered Freeland top-10-round money in 2011 before he landed at Evansville, where he began to capitalize on his projection.

 

“When he came in as a freshman he was 85-87, touching 88,” Carroll said. “He had a thin frame but good shoulders, height and his arm. As recruiting coaches and recruiters you look for arm action, and his arm was so clean, and I knew that the velocity was going to continue to jump as he continued to put on weight, especially with his lower half. That is something he has really made strides in the weight room on is his lower half.”

 

Freeland said he reached campus at 6-foot-3, 170 pounds but now measures at 6-foot-4 and between 190-195 pounds. He has a lean build similar to a surfer with broad shoulders and a V-shaped torso leading to a slim, trim waist and lean legs that will accommodate additional strength gains.

 

He also offers athleticism as a former all-state golfer in high school.

 

“Pitchers sometimes get knocked for not being athletic, but he is very athletic with his footwork and explosiveness, which are pretty impressive,” Evansville pitching coach Cody Fick said. “We will hold conditioning sessions in the winter session on a basketball court. If there is a basketball lying around, it is nothing for him to just go up and dunk it. The athleticism is definitely there. There is some spring in his lower half and some life in his body.”

 

Freeland is also young for the draft class and will turn 21 less than a month before the draft. Some evaluators do have concerns about his delivery, which has some effort and leaves him spinning toward third base from an arm slot that can be a tick below three-quarters. But delivery concerns can be softened by supreme strike-throwing ability.

 

With a chance to be the second first-round pick to come out of Evansville—Andy Benes was the first overall pick by the Padres in 1988—Freeland decided to change his appearance heading into his draft-eligible year.

 

“I had a mullet,” Freeland said. “My senior year in high school, freshman and sophomore years at school I had it. Then after my sophomore year I need to be professional for my draft year and be a grown-up. It is business time, not play time anymore.”

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http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/game-report-marylands-jake-stinnett/

 

 

Although Maryland righthander Jake Stinnett’s statistical line against from his weekend start against Wake Forest may not look impressive, the stuff he showed demonstrated why he is one of the biggest risers on draft boards this spring.

 

A third baseman to start his career, Stinnett began pitching full-time last year as a junior and did not sign after being drafted in the 29th round by the Pirates, but could go in the top three rounds this spring after taking big developmental strides.

 

“The arrow is really pointing up on him as a converted guy that is now dedicated to pitching,” a National League scout said.

 

Stinnett’s start against Wake Forest began with three hits in the first, including a three-run home run on a slider. He pitched off his 93-95 mph fastball in the opening frame that often finished up in the zone.

 

The premium senior then settled in, sitting down 13 of the next 14 hitters. The lone baserunner, a walk, was erased on a double play. He struck out six during this stretch.

 

In the second, he settled in at 92-94 mph with his fastball and sustained that velocity throughout his seven innings and 111 pitches. Stinnett, using a four-seamer and two-seamer, began pitching down in the zone and throwing quality strikes with plus fastball life, heavy sink and arm-side run.

 

“Once he settled in, his command improved and he started getting some pretty good life,” the scout said. “That was definitely plus life.”

 

Working from the third base side of the rubber, the athletic Stinnett got extension out front and hid the ball well from a three-quarters arm slot.

 

Wake Forest cleanup hitter Matt Conway interrupted Stinnett’s groove in the sixth inning by hitting his second home run of the game on a same-side 89 mph changeup that faded back over the heart of the plate.

 

Stinnett then threw what scouts termed “angry fastballs” for his next 10 heaters in the seventh inning, all but two of which were at least 95, with one hitting 97.

 

He finished with six earned runs (after two inherited runners scored following his departure with no outs in the eighth inning) on five hits in seven innings, striking out nine against two walks.

 

Stinnett was primarily a two-pitch pitcher who relied on his heavy fastball, throwing his heater more than 70 percent of the time with his 79-84 mph slider his favored offspeed offering.

 

The California native often used his fastball in breaking ball counts. Seven times he had a hitter down 0-2 and six times he went to his fastball, although he showed confidence in his breaking ball by tripling up on the pitch twice that flashed average.

 

“His fastball is going to be his strength,” the scout said. “His slider is going to be a pitch that he is going to have to match off of his fastball with its arm-side life and the plus velocity, then kind of expanding the plate with the fastball and the slider. His slider is probably a 40, but when he matches the two together it has a chance to play as average or better.”

 

His breaking ball had slurvy action and three-quarters tilt, varying the shape depending upon the handedness of the hitter.

 

“He has a tendency to throw it a little bit different to lefthanded hitters and righthanded hitters,” Maryland pitching coach Jim Belanger said. “When he throws it to lefthanded hitters it almost has a little hump in it and it is not as tight of a pitch. Whereas when he throws it to righthanded hitters it has more of that sharp, late, power break to it. It is something he is continuing to work on. He is kind of in between right now, but it works right now and it is really improving.”

 

Given Stinnett’s inexperience to pitching full time, he is continuing to gain greater feel for his offspeed stuff.

 

“Last year if I broke out his pitching charts he probably threw 90 percent fastballs,” Belanger said. “The slider was not a pitch that he could throw consistently but now it is a pitch that guys will swing and miss at.”

 

His below-average high-80s changeup was thrown fewer than five times on the day.

 

“It was a little firm but I thought he threw some really good ones to the lefthanded hitters,” Maryland coach John Szefc said. “It is still a work in progress but when it is down in the zone and he gets good extension on it, it has some life to it. It almost has a split-like action where the bottom falls.”

 

Stinnett, who was used out of the bullpen and in the rotation last year, has had a sizable increase in his velocity.

 

“We started to see the velocity improve last fall,” Belanger said. “Last year out of the bullpen he would get it up to 93 and touch 94. But when he would start for us last year he would pitch in that 88-91 range. But when he came back this fall he looked different and it looked different coming out of his hand.”

 

With two plus fastball components in his velocity and life, he has shown heavy groundball tendencies with a groundball-flyball ratio of 2.7. Stinnett’s third fastball component, control, has also taken a step forward.

 

“The biggest thing for him is that he is going from being what I would call a moderate strike-thrower to a consistent strike-thrower,” Szefc said. “His walks have decreased dramatically and he makes you beat him.”

 

Stinnett’s walk rate of 3.4 per-nine last year has decreased by more than 40 percent to 1.9 per nine. Stinnett struck out 6.8 per-nine last year, which pales in comparison to his rate of 10.4 this year with a strikeout-walk rate of 5.5.

 

Stinnett, who has worked with renowned trainer Eric Cressey, has a strong, athletic pitcher’s body at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds with a large frame, physical lower half and strength through his body.

 

“There is not much loose on that body and he definitely passes the eye test as an underwear model-looking guy,” Szefc said.

 

Although Stinnett has demonstrated strike-throwing ability this spring, his delivery has some funk. Stinnett keeps the ball close to his body from his takeaway out of his glove, hiding the ball from the hitter. He has some shoulder tilt and his strike foot occasionally hops back after releasing the ball. This is similar to Braves lefthander Alex Wood, but much less pronounced.

 

“It doesn’t affect his arm strength or his command,” Belanger said. “He just has so much force going through his delivery. It is just his way of slowing his body down. When he lands he almost has another hop where his foot will hop up and move. That is just the way he throws and we haven’t messed around with that.”

 

Although Stinnett will be 22 at draft time, there is projection with his stuff that is not typical of someone his age given how much mound time he has accrued.

 

“Jake is only going to get better,” Belanger said. “You look at most college guys and when they come in they make their velocity jump from their freshman to their sophomore year because they have a full year to get stronger and focus on their routine. Then all of a sudden they make the big jump that next year. This is kind of where Jake is now.”

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Baseball America draft chat rom today:

 

Kevin (Baton Rouge): Is Aaron Nola going to be the quickest player from this draft to reach the big leagues

John Manuel: Hi gang. Thanks for the questions. Nola’s a good answer. A healthy, peak version of Carlos Rodon would also not need much time in the minors, though he probably could use a few months to just not throw his slider and work on basics like locating his fastball better and trusting his changeup more.

 

Brian (Jacksonville, FL): Where do you see Indiana's Kyle Schwarber and Sam Travis being drafted realistically, and Is there any chance Schwarber stays at Catcher in pro ball?

John Manuel: Schwarber is on our list at No. 18, so we see him as a mid-first-round pick. There’s always a chance, and the feedback we’ve gotten on Schwarber this year is as a catcher. He has the physicality for it; mobility, flexibility, his hands, those are the real big keys, and I think scouts see the body and instantly have their doubts. He will have to keep working to prove he can stay back there. Travis has single-digit round interest as well, primarily because he can hit and is hitting. He’s a 3-5 round range guy, a little higher if he keeps hitting.

 

Steve (Dallas): Phillies have their highest pick in a long, long time (at #7). I know they are always ALWAYS associated with the high risk tool heavy HS position player but I'm thinking this year they go pitcher. Thoughts?

John Manuel: Highest pick since 2001, when they took Gavin Floyd. Still a decent amount of the same decision-makers with the Phils, too; I believe Marti Wolever, their current scouting director, was national crosschecker that year. All our info is that scouts expect most of the top 10 picks to be pitchers, but there’s a lot of talk about Nick Gordon, the Orlando SS, going in the first 5-7 picks. That’s a possibility for the toolsy HS position player, even though they just took J.P. Crawford last year. If Alex Jackson were available, I could see him here too, but I don’t see any other HS hitters being worthy of the No. 7 pick at this time. I’ll also throw out that the Phillies drafted LHP Kyle Freeland out of a Denver high school.

 

Mark (Florida): What are your impressions of Touki Toussaint so far this season and an early guess of where he goes in the draft?

John Manuel: We saw Touki up close & personal at NHSI, and he pitched well considering the cold, fairly blustery conditions. He secondary stuff has been better this year, both the breaking ball and the changeup, which stood out at NHSI. I happened to talk to the home-plate ump who had that start, and he thought Touki was throwing a split-finger pitch. He was wrong; that was just his changeup, but that’s how much tumble it had. He’s had some starts where scouts have praised his improved strike-throwing ability as well. He just hasn’t done it all together yet, and he’s seen as a higher-risk pick. I see him going in the 11-15 range, to a team like Toronto or San Francisco.

 

Joe (PA): Who does Brandon Finnegan compare to?

John Manuel: Well, he says he tries to model himself after Scott Kazmir, and they are of similar size, so let’s go with that. I know last year I had a scout discuss him and Billy Wagner, because there are some doubts about whether or not he’s a starter, but he’s progressed well since then. Good piece on him here by our own Aaron Fitt: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/finnegan-has-shown-mental-edge/

 

Greg (Phoenix, AZ): Hey Guys, if Rodon's stock slips, is there still a guy out there strong enough to knock him down from his potential #1 slot? Even if he has an average year, his prior 2 years make him tough to beat. Thoughts? Thanks, Greg

John Manuel: There’s no if; Rodon’s stock has slipped. He just hasn’t been as explosive this year. We believe Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek have nudged past him on this draft board, and if it weren’t for those two prior years, Rodon likely would rank lower. I’ve just had too many scouts tell me they have top men, as Indians Jones fans would say, running back in to see Rodon this time of year because he may be available after the top pick or two, whereas early in the season, scouts were rushing in to see him to “do their due diligence,” thinking he would go 1 or 2 and be off the board and they wouldn’t have to worry about seeing him again. Maybe you didn’t get a chance to view the list. It’s here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

 

Zack (Calgary): Does Aiken have more potential than Rodon after Carlos' recent back to earth performances?

John Manuel: He has plenty of potential; not sure he has more if you believe in Rodon’s knack for pitching and strike-throwing ability. His delivery just makes it a lot harder for him, at this time, to throw quality fastball strikes. If you believe you can get him doing that on a consistent basis, I believe his pitches have higher grades than Aiken. But Aiken has precocious fastball command, impressive work ethic … similar stuff, the body has gotten better and better pitchability.

 

Alan (Chicago): Any inclination towards where the ChiSox are leaning with #3? Heard Hoffman plenty, but any chance they break the trend and go with a prep arm in Aiken/Kolek?

John Manuel: I haven’t really started trying to match up players with teams yet. I know the White Sox love athleticism in their pitchers, and I know they have been here in NC a lot this spring due to Rodon, Hoffman and Trea Turner, so if they took any one of those three guys, it wouldn’t surprise me. I think they would prefer Rodon over Hoffman. If you think a pitcher needs a mechanical tweak, Don Cooper and the White Sox want you.

 

ScottAZ (Phx, AZ): Comp Gordon with another Florida prep SS from a few years ago Lindor. Who rates ahead of who in power/ave/speed/defense/arm?

John Manuel: That’s not fair to Nick Gordon. Scouts like Nick Gordon, and he plays shortstop, but I haven’t spoken to anyone who likes him more than Lindor. He just happens to be in a draft class without shortstops. Lindor was the 8th overall pick in a draft where four of the guys picked ahead of him already have played in the major leagues.

 

Sang (Chicago): Is Beede a future ace or is he closer to a #2 pitcher? Is there a MLB pitcher that he resembles?

John Manuel: Feels like more of a No. 3 type, an A.J. Burnett type in that he has front-line stuff without No. 1 or No. 2 command. I was stunned to learn that his start last Friday at Tennessee was the first time he’s gone 8 innings in three seasons. He was SEC pitcher of the year last year and still never was efficient enough to go more than 7 innings. His control has improved this year but he doesn’t have front-of-the-rotation command.

 

Bill B (Glen Allen, VA): What makes a really good high school pitcher a great pro prospect from a scouts point of view?

John Manuel: Start with the fastball. We’re working on a story for the draft preview and can’t find a high school pitcher who’s gone in the first round in the last decade who didn’t at least hit 92, at least according to our pre-draft writeups. You just don’t see first-round pitchers get picked without a plus fastball, and it helps if it has some life and if the guy throws strikes with it. Body type and athleticism are the next boxes that scouts check, along with arm action and delivery, but it all starts with the fastball.

 

Justin (Tucson, AZ): For position players, does Alex Jackson have the best chance to be an impact major leaguer? If not, who does?

John Manuel: Yes, that’s why he is the top-ranked position player on our list. Scouts seem to be doubting Trea Turner’s ability to make an offensive impact; I’m a Turner believer, but his swing is long and that hampers the scouting grades for his bat. His swing probably needs to change, according to the scouts we’ve talked to. Jacob Gatewood and Michael Gettys have that impact potential but their bats have been iffy for a while. Monte Harrison would be next for his athleticism. I like the college hitters in this draft more as solid regulars rather than as stars, but the whole industry missed on Paul Goldschmidt, so maybe there’s a Goldschmidt in here too.

 

Sal (Chico, CA): Do any of the HS pitchers have clear advantages over Grant Holmes?

John Manuel: Aiken and Kolek do; they have taller, better frames, Aiken is lefthanded and throws more quality strikes, and Kolek throws 100 or better. He’s a bigger, better Holmes in many ways. I like Grant Holmes, always have loved the mini-fro, as well as the stuff. Touki Toussaint vs. Holmes is a tough one; I think Holmes is more conventional, Touki offers more risk, but Touki’s long arms, athleticism and frame are more typical of what scouts look for than Holmes, who is maybe 6-1 (6-8 with the ‘fro for you Fletch fans).

 

Joe LeCates (Easton, MD): John and Clint, thank you guys for the chat today and hope all is well. Of course Derek Fisher's injury is a direct effect on his drop in the Midseason Top 50. My question is, does this become kind of a Pedro Alvarez situation where as long as he comes back this spring he still goes in the top half of the 1st round, or is there a bigger concern because he has never really tapped into his raw power at UVA (now coupled with the broken hamate)?

John Manuel: Yeah, Joe, I don’t think it’s an Alvarez situation. Fisher has been solid but never spectacular, not for me, so I think he has work to do when he gets back just showing a good approach and trying to drive the ball. Power usually takes a little while to return with hamate injuries, as you know. So that’s a reason why he dropped, and it may be tough for him to work his way back up the list.

 

Mick (Chicago): John, If I may ask an non draft question; I was kind of bummed after ready your piece on the lack of baseball interest in Australia. Is it worth the money MLB puts into the academy to continue there, or is it a similar futile attempt like the NFL makes in Europe?

John Manuel: This is a good place for me to exit but also to share MLB’s rebuttal to my column. I am bummed that Australia hasn’t panned out more. I remember an agent who shall remain nameless chastising me for not ranking Luke Hughes in the Twins’ Top 30 prospects, but the Aussie track record scared me away and turned out to be correct. Justin Huber, Hughes, the Australian Pete Rieser (Chris Snelling) … a lot of hitters who haven’t panned out, and most of the pitchers have fallen by the wayside too. It does seem that MLB has spent a lot of money there for not a lot of players. That said, MLB did inform me that the games fared very well on ESPN Australia, that more than 100,000 attended the two games, merchandise sales went very well, etc. So MLB is growing its revenue, and I bet MLB does just as well if not better when it ventures to the Netherlands, I believe that’s next year. And there is much more money to be made in Europe. MLB knows what it’s doing with these ventures; I don’t blame them for doing it. This approach is what has helped turn a $2 billion industry into an $8 billion industry in the last decade.

 

John Vittas (College Park, MD): How much will Tommy John or other major arm surgry diminish a pitcher's draft value? Guys like Mike Compton and Matthew Crownover have been dominant in the ACC this year, but both have had TJ in their recent pasts.

John Manuel: My sense is neither of those guys throws particularly hard, but then neither was really thought of as a power pitcher pre-TJ. Both have come back healthy, they are good college pitchers, and I don’t believe either one is seen as a premium draft prospect. Crownover is the better prospect as a lefty with pitchability and a good changeup.

 

Warren (Texas): Which prospects have the most helium? Who are your favorite sleepers? Who, in your eyes, is the most likely to not live up to their expected draft slot? Thanks for the chat!

John Manuel: Kyle Freeland has helium; the West Coast scouts I have talked to this week had heard the buzz of his outing Friday that Clint and I attended and that Clint chronicled earlier this week. Bukauskas and Spencer Adams were the high school pitchers with the most helium in our calls and contacts this week, with Monte Harrison the other guy moving up. He got some Bubba Starling comparisons, and that was meant as a compliment.

 

phillip (long beach,ca): Will you have a draft podcast anytime soon? thanks

John Manuel: We’ll either do one after this chat or tomorrow a.m.

 

John Manuel: OK, I’m passing the mic now to Clint Longenecker, who wears more fashionable pants than me but types slower. Have at it Clint!

 

Taylor (Tampa): Where do you see Jacob Bukauskas landing?

Clint Longenecker: Thanks for stopping in. The remaining few starts will likely mean as much for JB as any other high school pitcher because evaluators are still running in to see him and getting a feel for him as a prospect. He is tough to peg because of the lack of information on him relative to others in the class, but he will likely be gone by the first or comp round. When I saw him in his first regular season start a few weeks ago, his offspeed stuff left something to be desired. But we have gotten positive reports on the development of his changeup and his slider will likely improve significantly give his hand speed. With a strong finish to the season he could move up into the top 20 picks. 94-97 from a 17 year old is tough to bypass.

 

Richie (Jacksonville, FL): Lots of good HS players in the Jacksonville/Orlando area. Who besides Reid-Foley looks like a top round(s) pick?

Clint Longenecker: The Orlando area is LOADED. Orlando has Nick Gordon, Forest Wall and Foster Griffin, to name a few. All three are in our top 50. Orlando also has a few top 2015 guys as well with LHP Juan Hillman of Olympia and Hagerty High INF Ryan Mountcastle, who was one of the initial 10 invites to the Under Armour All-American Game for August.

 

James (DE): Any prep prospects in Delaware this year?

Clint Longenecker: OF Tyler Hill of the Delaware Military Academy is an athletic, strong-bodied power hitter who has posted average 60-yard dash times with a below-average arm.

 

Steve (Cherry Hill, NJ): I read on Twitter that Scott Blewitt was sitting 89-91 yesterday while Bryan Dobzanski (Delsea, NJ) sat 91-94 the same day. Why Blewitt over Dobzanski, considering both are big physical RHP from the NE, but Dobzanski is the better athlete of the two?

Clint Longenecker: Dobzanski, the NJ state wrestling champ in the 220 lb weight class, is a good athlete but so is Blewett, who has a great body and strong coordination for someone his size. Blewett’s delivery is a little cleaner. This is not to diminish Dobzanski but just to distinguish the two. Blewett’s breaking ball showed better on the showcase circuit and he has also been up to 94 this spring. I believe he was up to 94 in his last start but the velocity fell after that.

 

Sang (Chicago): Could Rodon thrive in the majors with his present stuff? Should the Cubs draft him even if theres a slight chance he loses a bit more on the fb?

Clint Longenecker: It is tough to say that any amateur player could thrive in the majors. To do so in the long run, Rodon’s fastball command will be a point of emphasis, as will pitching off his fastball. His slider is such a strong offering that he is able to pitch off it. But a crosschecker who just saw a recent start said that if Rodon was in pro ball a team would shelve his slider and tell him that he has to learn to pitch off his fastball and locate it to both sides effectively. That and continued development of his changeup will be keys.

 

Craig (Ca.): Thanks for the chat. Just curious as to where you think a couple of Ca. HS players will go in the draft......RHP Mitch Hart (Granite Bay) and OF Trenton Kemp (Buchanan HS).

Clint Longenecker: Hart, an athletic RHP, has not taken the step forward this spring that many expected, according to scouts. His velocity has been in the 80s in some starts, although his fastball has been up to 92 in the last month. He entered the spring as a potential top 3 round pick but evaluators have said he has fallen from that territory. But he could push back up into that territory with a strong finish to the season.

 

ScottAZ (Phx, AZ): Is Phx Brophy product Ryan Castenelli helping his draft stock? Heard he is up in the 94mph range now. What about Tucson's Verdugo? After a lot of attention last summer his name has been quiet

Clint Longenecker: Yes. Castenelli has had a good spring. He had reportedly touched higher than 94 very early in the spring. He has always had the strike-throwing ability, fastball movement and an changeup with above-average potential with a good-looking pitcher’s body. But his breaking ball has reportedly taken a step forward and he is young for the class.

 

Francisco (Atlanta, GA): What round do you see Griffin Helms in the draft? Do you think Chavis could be a good first round pick by the Braves?

Clint Longenecker: We have gotten many questions about which players specific teams may be targeting and many it is too early too put much stock in that. The Northeast, for example, just started high school baseball last week. But Chavis could be a first-rounder as a bat first infielder with a well-rounded skill set. He has plus power and bat speed and has shown the ability to hit in games. His bat stands in contrast to many of the top high school hitters who have not hit as evaluators had hoped this spring.

 

Homeswithhart (New York): Who do you see right now as increasing the most in draft position and who do you see as the biggest drop in position so far this season?

Clint Longenecker: OF Monte Harrison of Missouri has had a strong start to the season. One of the top athletes in the class, Harrison is a three-sport star committed to play WR for Nebraska. Despite his limited time on the baseball field he has shown baseball instincts in addition to his raw physical attributes, plus speed, power and one of the top outfield arms in the class. As far as players who have dropped, there is still plenty of time left for players to improve their status before the draft, but Cobi Johnson’s velocity has not increased as expected. The same can be said about RHP Alex Faedo. But both are athletic pitchers with strike-throwing ability and feel for offspeed stuff.

 

Zach (Maine): Where do you see Sean Newcomb landing, and what is your take on a reasonable ceiling for him?

Clint Longenecker: He could go in the top 20 picks. It is tough to say what his ceiling is because it seems like he has as much projection left (with his stuff, not necessarily his body) as any college pitcher. He could be a very different pitcher in one calendar year. With continued progression of his slider, it could be a very loud package. For more on him check out http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/hartfords-newcomb-is-late-rising-northeasterner/

 

brian (braintree, ma): Who do you feel are the top 3-4 relievers right now for the draft?

Clint Longenecker: The top college reliever for this draft is Louisville RHP Nick Burdi, who regularly touches 100 with a slider that shows plus-plus potential. UVA Nick Howard is another power armed reliever who has touched 97 with better command than most relievers. San Diego State RHP Michael Cederoth is another fireballer that can touch triple-digits but he is walking more than 5 per-nine. College relievers are not a highly coveted demographic.

 

jeff (daytona, FL): Who are the biggest risers on the draft board right now, and are there any prospects from the Northeast that are generating draft buzz?

Clint Longenecker: The Northeast has some interesting high school players. Dobzanski and Blewett were already mentioned. RHP Joey Gatto has been up to 95 this spring with a great pitching body and easy delivery. His rotationmate, LHP Zach Warren, is an athletic strike-thrower wtih a projectable build, fastball movement and command. LHP Devin Smeltzer has a deceptive delivery and feel for a slider. OF Zach Sullivan has a loud set of tools and looks the part in a uniform. RHP Austin DeCarr has been up to 96 with a good breaking ball. MIF Isan Diaz is a smooth defender with hitting ability. There a lot of talent up there.

 

Josh Levasser (Knoxville, TN): First of all thank you for all your coverage. You guys do such a great detailed job covering the entire country. It is refreshing to see the growth of BA and the draft segments. My question is about the state of Tennessee. Who are your top 5-10 guys coming out of the Volunteer state? Have any helped, hurt, or otherwise their stock?

Clint Longenecker: Thank you very much. Tennessee will have a first-rounder with Vandy RHP Tyler Beede. The arms are down from the HS side from last year. But LHP Justus Sheffield is strike-throwing ability and feel for three pitches that could be above-average. OF Lane Thomas,a UT commit, is an athletic player with feel for the bat and above-average speed. The athletic Hunter Tackett has a well-rounded set of tools and projectable build. MIF Dale Burdick is a good player as a contact-oriented bat and scrappy player. RHP Kevin Steen looks the part in a uniform with a projectable build and has a fast arm with good fastball movement.

 

Pete Lunchbox (Handsome City USA): Ti'quan Forbes seems to be one of the most divisive prospects. What is it that kept him out of your top 50? Is there a concern that his hit tool isn't developed, he can't stick at SS, or something else?

Clint Longenecker: He was right on the outskirts and would have been in a top 55. Some evaluators are not confident that he can stay at SS because despite his physical attributes he has an average arm at best and he has a big frame that could really fill out. Sure, his hit tool isnt developed compared to some in the class, but you wouldnt expect for it to be for a three-sport athlete from Miss. who is young for the class. He has bat speed and the strength he will add could make it a solid bat.

 

johnny (Austin): Where do you project Parker French, Dillon Peters, Daniel Mengden and Zech Lemond to go in the draft? Want to know how the State of Texas pitching lines up this year

Clint Longenecker: Lemond likely had the highest potential draft stock of all those players. He has run his fastball into the upper-90s out of the rotation but left his last start early. Its wait and see with him but his talent could put him in the top 2 rounds. Those other guys are likely top 5 round talents.

 

Greg (Brea, CA): Where would like class rank in comparison to the last 3 draft classes?

Clint Longenecker: It does not have the athletic, impact high school position players at up the middle positions like the 2012 draft possessed. But it is likely the deepest draft of the 3 in terms of power arms, especially last year’s class.

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-update-change-at-the-top-as-pitchers-dominate/

 

2014 Draft Update: Change At The Top As Pitchers Dominate

 

It’s the kind of thing that’s hard to quantify. It’s not like scouts take attendance at high school baseball games to determine if all the scouting directors are in the bleachers.

 

But a perfect storm of circumstances attracted all 30 scouting directors to Baseball America’s back yard at the end of March. USA Baseball’s National High School Invitational in Cary, N.C., had a half-dozen potential first-round picks in its 16-team field, with games played on a Wednesday and Thursday.

 

That Friday, the two top college pitchers on most teams’ draft boards, North Carolina State’s Carlos Rodon and East Carolina’s Jeff Hoffman, both made home starts in the Old North State, with N.C. State adding shortstop Trea Turner to the buffet of prospects.

 

None of the scouts contacted for this story either in-person at the event or on the phone thereafter could remember a spring event with all 30 directors present. That doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened, but no one could recall it.

 

It all happened two months out from the June draft, making it a great time to take stock of the class. The biggest takeaway so far is that pitching and velocity stand out in what is shaping up as a fairly deep draft. Few position players, either among college or high school ranks, have broken out this spring, and most have lost some momentum and rank behind the pitchers on teams’ draft boards.

 

“The guys stepping forward so far have almost all been pitchers, both high school and some on the college side,” said one scouting director. “We’re still waiting for some hitters to do the same thing.”

 

Added a second director, “I could probably give you 20-25 names who could go in the back of the first round to second-round range. It’s deep in that part (of the draft) this year.”

 

Regime Change

 

The biggest change two months in is the ascent of San Diego prep lefty Brady Aiken to the No. 1 spot, as he and Shepherd (Texas) High righty Tyler Kolek appear to have passed Rodon on most draft boards. Aiken opened the season as a likely top 10 pick and has gotten better, showing improved velocity on his 90-94 mph fastball and better hand speed on his breaking ball to go with his already elite command and knack for pitching. Kolek has hit 100 mph repeatedly and has the best pure arm in the draft.

 

Rodon, meanwhile, has struggled with diminished fastball velocity and command this spring. The less he throws his fastball—more consistently in the 89-92 mph range rather than the 92-96 peak he flashed in each of the last two years—for strikes, the more he comes to rely on his still-plus slider. An ugly start in late March at Maryland raised questions about his ability to handle adversity, as he has allowed as many unearned runs (15) as earned. While his previous track record helps keep him at the top of the college class, he has yet to show the form that put him there.

 

Hoffman has had livelier stuff than Rodon but gets hit as well, and both have fallen back to the college-pitcher pack, with Southeastern Conference righthanders Tyler Beede (Vanderbilt) and Aaron Nola (Louisiana State), UNLV righty Erick Fedde and lefties Brandon Finnegan (Texas Christian) and Kyle Freeland (Evansville) closing the gap. Much of the scouting world was in Nashville in March to see Beede and the Commodores play host to Nola, who has dominated more than any other collegian on the field and works off his fastball more than any other college starter, save Fedde.

 

Pitching remains the strength of the draft class, however, particularly on the high school side. Righthanders Touki Toussaint (Miami), Grant Holmes (Conway, S.C.) and Sean Reid-Foley (Jacksonville, Fla.) have pitched themselves toward the top of the class, as Toussaint has shown improved secondary stuff and control this spring. Holmes and Reid-Foley have run their fastballs into the upper 90s, with Holmes throwing slightly harder.

 

Two of the biggest movers on the prep side have been righthanders, as scouts rushed in to see Virginia prep Jacob Bukauskas, who reclassified to the class of 2014 and has been throwing in the upper 90s; and Georgia athlete Spencer Adams, who came out of basketball season throwing well, with a fastball touching 95 mph to go with a plus slider.

 

The college class also offers pitching depth, especially among lefthanders who had stepped forward to make this perhaps the best class of college southpaws since David Price led the Class of 2007. Freeland and Hartford’s Sean Newcomb have maintained the momentum from their breakout performances last summer in the Cape Cod League and continue to climb up draft boards. Cal Poly ace Matt Imhof (81) and Finnegan (80), who were teammates last summer with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team, ranked 1-2 in Division I in strikeouts.

 

The prep class also has shaped up strong from the left side, despite a down spring by Arizona’s top prospect, two-way player Alex Verdugo (Sahuaro HS, Tucson), who prefers to hit anyway. Georgia’s Mac Marshall and Florida’s Foster Griffin both threw well in the NHSI, while Hawaii’s Kodi Medeiros has had a good spring but remains a divisive prospect due to his low release point, highly unusual for a lefthanded starting pitcher.

 

The Class That Can’t Hit

 

It’s a good thing that most of the top arms in the class have had strong springs, because most of the hitters have not. Prep catcher Alex Jackson has established himself as the top hitting prospect in the draft, with a strong spring to go with a long track record of production. Shortstop Nick Gordon, the son of ex-big league reliever Tom and half-brother of Dodgers infielder Dee, headlines a strong crop of talent in the Orlando area. While Gordon isn’t a consensus choice, scouts report they expect him to be chosen in the first 10 selections for his combination of athleticism, ability to play a premium position and contact ability at the plate.

 

College outfielders Bradley Zimmer (San Francisco) and Michael Conforto (Oregon State) have joined Turner in the top tier of college bats. None of the three collegians has played to type, however. Zimmer, knocked last summer for a flat swing plane, has hit seven home runs during a stunning season, with a .430/.497/.711 line to go with the homers and 14 stolen bases in 19 tries. Turner has had an odd spring, with a recent hot streak pushing him to a .306/.380/.452 line with four home runs while showing improved arm strength and defensive play at shortstop. However, he’s stolen just 10 bases (after swiping 87 in his first two seasons), and scouts still have real questions about his swing mechanics and impact at the plate. Conforto has just two homers this year after hitting a combined 24 in his first two seasons, but he still owned a .383/.531/.551 slash line. Wichita State switch-hitting first baseman Casey Gillaspie (.402/.507/.692, 8 HR) also was moving into first-round consideration.

 

The high school hitters remain more volatile, as evidenced by the NHSI matchup of Clovis (Calif.) High and shortstop Jacob Gatewood with Gainesville (Ga.) High and outfielder Michael Gettys. Two of the toolsiest members of the class combined for two singles in front of a throng of scouts, with little hard contact; one veteran scout, when asked if he’d seen Gatewood hit well this season, replied, “Nope, and neither has my staff. And it’s the same with Gettys.”

 

Gatewood and Gettys could move back up the first round if they make more hard contact as the spring progresses, but Missouri prep outfielder Monte Harrison, a Nebraska football recruit, had opened the spring playing well and was moving past Gettys on the toolsy outfielder front. Bat-first preps such as second baseman Forrest Wall out of Orlando and third baseman Michael Chavis (Marietta, Ga.) were taking advantage of the vacuum and earning first-round consideration.

 

“The class can be summed up more by who hasn’t hit,” another scouting director said, “than by who has hit.”

 

As usual, the first round has some injury wild cards, such as Sanger (Calif.) High righthander Luis Ortiz, who had missed a couple of starts with a hush-hush injury but was expected back in mid-April; and Virginia outfielder Derek Fisher, who was out with a hamate injury in his right hand. Other injured prospects who have volatile draft stock include Georgia prep righty Dylan Cease and Florida prep Cobi Johnson.

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-9-3/

 

 

North Carolina State lefthander Carlos Rodon turned in arguably his best start of the season against Duke, striking out 12 and getting 25 swinging strikes. His fastball sat 93-96 mph in his first two innings, hitting 97 and 98. The offering settled in at 91-95 mph and he hit 94 and 95 on his three final fastballs of the day. Rodon’s slider was at least a plus-plus offering and garnered 20 whiffs on the day. Rodon showed improved feel for his changeup, which showed the makings of a plus offering with considerable tumble. He demonstrated confidence in the offering by throwing a same-side changeup to the inside part of the plate on a 1-2 count against one of Duke’s best hitters, first baseman Chris Marconcini.

 

Rodon threw a season-high 134 pitches and is averaging 113 pitches on the season during games with available pitch counts (all but last week’s outing against Clemson). He averaged 112 pitches last season in 19 starts.

 

Miami’s top two starters, lefthanders Chris Diaz and Andrew Suarez, dominated Pittsburgh, striking out more than one-third of hitters (34.5 percent) with a 9.5 strikeout-walk ratio. Suarez, who had been up to 96 earlier in the season, has reportedly sat in the low 90s in recent starts, touching higher. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound Suarez hides the ball well and produces at least average fastball life, primarily arm-side run and sink. He has shown the makings of above-average control of a four-pitch mix, walking 1.5 per-nine in 64 innings on the year while striking out 6.7.

 

Diaz is a strike-thrower with a sneaky fastball that sat in the high 80s two weeks ago against North Carolina State, touching 90. He has been up to 92 this spring. His best secondary offering is his low 80s changeup, which he compliments with a slider. Although he entered the year with low career strikeout and walk ratios, both rates have increased. He is striking out 8.2 per-nine against 3.4 walks per-nine.

 

Evansville lefthander Kyle Freeland followed up last week’s dominant outing against Charlotte, when he struck out 15, with arguably an even more impressive one against Wichita State. Freeland again struck out 15 without walking a hitter and allowed a lone run on four hits. His fastball sat in the low 90s and touched 94. Freeland, who struck out potential first-rounder Casey Gillaspie twice, continued to fill up the strike zone, as 74 percent of his pitches were strikes and he has a strikeout-to-walk ratio on the year of 18.8.

 

Notre Dame righthander Pat Connaughton, who started every game for the basketball team and was third on the team in scoring (13.8 points per-game) and second in rebounding (7.1 rebounds per-game), had his best start this season since coming in late from the basketball season. The long-limbed, 6-foot-5, 214-pound Connaughton, who has a great pitcher’s body, threw a complete game against Boston College, striking out six. Although he has walked (19) more than he has struck out on the year (17), for a walk rate of 6.9 per-nine, Connaughton issued only one walk against Boston College. His fastball has consistently been in the low 90s this season, touching 94, and his secondary stuff lags behind given how little mound time he has accrued.

 

Pepperdine lefthander/outfielder Aaron Brown, who sustained injuries last season as a draft-eligible sophomore, continues to control the strike zone, walking two of the 28 hitters he faced against Brigham Young over seven innings. He has walked 2.3 per-nine while striking out 8.9 per-nine. The 6-foot-1, 222-pound Brown has strength throughout his large frame and a powerful lower half. Brown, who has a quick arm and four-pitch mix, has mostly pitched with average fastball velocity this season, according to evaluators. The center fielder is also hitting .328/.372/.569 with 18 extra-base hits.

 

San Diego catcher Connor Joe has been a consistent offensive performer since the start of the season. He clubbed another five extra-base hits over the weekend, giving him 23 on the year to go with a triple-slash line of .395/.483/.646. The righthanded hitter has more walks (21) than strikeouts (19). The 6-foot, 205-pound Joe is athletic with a strong, sturdy build and runs well for the position. He can post above-average pop times.

 

A hulking slugger at 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, Texas Christian first baseman Kevin Cron has some of the best raw power in the college class, at least plus-plus, but faced questions about his ability to get to that power after hitting .208/.280/.276 with a 21 percent strikeout rate and 5 percent walk rate last season. While questions about his hitting ability remain, the righthanded-hitting Cron displayed that light-tower power in game action over the weekend, hitting a pair of home runs and a double. His strikeout rate has fallen to 15.7 percent with an increase in his walk rate to 8.5 percent, although his line remains at .266/.379/.453. Cron is a bottom-of-the-scale runner with a below-average arm likely limited to first base or designated hitter.