sliderguy35

you're definitely right, he hasn't been that unlucky on the contact that he's gotten. i should have been a bit more specific, the .388 babip is because he's been giving up nearly 30% line drives to LHHs since may 1st which is super unsustainable in a small sample size. wOBA - xwOBA is kinda weird in that way, it's just measuring the outcomes of the batted balls based on EV & launch angle, but it doesn't take into account the sustainability of the types of batted balls themselves (which is why its a good large sample metric but a fundamentally misused small sample one). i'd put a lot more stock into the fact that his K-BB% to lefties since may 1st is an elite 24.6% (30.4% - 5.8%) since it stabilizes a lot quicker & tells us more about future performance.

hoffman is definitely elite, you don't luck your way into having a K%-BB% over 27% two years in a row. it feels overly reductive to say that he's been unlucky but there's a lot of research about how pitchers don't really have a ton of control over how many of their flyballs become homeruns in small samples. hoffman's having the 10th worst season by HR/FB rate (21.7%) by any qualified reliever in the last 5 years, and the worst season by HR/FB rate for any pitcher in that timeframe who's contact is primarily dominated by flyballs (40%+). just gotta weather the storm & trust that the regression monster shows itself as the sample size gets larger in higher leverage innings down the line.

i like this move a lot. he didn't have a great april in terms of strike throwing, but since may his first-pitch strike rate has gone back to his career average & the walk rate's stabilized to around 12% (which will absolutely play when you're striking out 32% of hitters). he's also a lot more platoon-neutral than the surface numbers suggest, the splitter wreaks havoc against lefties & he's currently sporting a pretty unlucky .388 babip & sub-65% strand rate vs them. to give a bit of context, his swinging strike rate (top-20 in MLB), k% & bb% since may 1st are all about the same as what andres munoz has done in that time period (although munoz gets a lot more groundballs & manages batted ball contact better). fangraphs had a good point this morning; the jays gave up far less than the mets did for gregory soto for a better pitcher by basically every metric. you're never going to /win/ a rental trade unless you win the WS, but it doesn't feel like too much of a loss to give up a guy who's probably going to be a breaking ball first swingman a few years from now.

he was promoted pretty aggressively by houston so that gives him a little buyback in terms of poor results at AAA. his underlying pitch shapes also looked a lot better in 2025 before he got injured, so it makes sense to hold him and see where he's at post-TJ

if we're talking speculative pieces with years of control that nobody's talking about, the name that comes to my mind is pablo lopez on the twins. he's currently rehabbing from a shoulder strain but has 2 years of control after this season ($21M APY) & is a legitimate #1 when he's pitching. with the jays current starter depth, they wouldn't have to rush his rehab & be able to get a top of the line guy once he's back in action. not to mention all the stuff that's being floated about the blue jays' "financial muscle" + the twins wanting to shed payroll b/c of their TV deal, it just seems like something that would work for both sides.

i like cabrera a lot from a stuff / upside perspective & I think the strike-throwing improvements are real this year. upping his zone rate & first pitch strike rates without losing any whiffs is usually a great sign. BUT i'd be wary about getting someone who's yet to eclipse 100 innings in a full season for the stretch run & playoffs when he's already at 88 innings for the year. he's missed significant time in the last 2 seasons with shoulder impingement issues & has already been on the injury report twice this month with elbow soreness. maybe the fact that the jays have starting pitching depth makes it worth it to go for an upside play, that's the call that atkins is gonna have to make. but all else equal i'd probably feel better about a similar package for alcantara. side note: im kinda bummed the jays weren't able to bring handsome randal back. he's kind of exactly what theyre looking for out of that bench spot

not sure where you're seeing that he's getting hit hard well above MLB average. during the period that i mentioned (june 1st onwards) his HH rate is 42.5% (league average 41%) and he's exactly league average in barrel rate (8.6%). the hr/9 is down but his hr/fb% in that period is 9%, a bit below league average but nothing crazy or unsustainable (the marlins as a whole this season are at 9.5%). FIP isn't my favourite metric but it still does a better job of predicting future ERA then past ERA does. the lack of whiffs is obviously concerning but since the stuff is essentially the same & his command has been coming back, you might be able to get that back with some usage adjustments: against righties in particular, the marlins have been pushing the 4 seam usage (especially when ahead in the count) and it just has not worked at all (4.5% swinging strike rate, real bad damage metrics). backing off that for more breaking ball or offspeed seems like something an acquiring team would try. against lefties, he used to throw nearly 40% changeup when behind in the count & had great results limiting hard contact. this season, the usage is down 20% despite the changeup still having a 45% whiff rate & below average hard hit rate in that situation guys with top shelf stuff & this much team control just do not become available very often. we've been trying to sign top of the rotation guys for the past few offseasons without any luck. now they have a chance to acquire someone who has that ceiling, has already had his major elbow surgery & is going at a slight discount, for some prospects that MIGHT be big leaguers one day. even if they technically lose the trade from a value perspective, taking that kind of risk now is exactly what the team should be doing if they're trying to win

the start of sandy's season was legitimately bad, but he's been a mid 3's FIP guy for nearly 2 months now (exactly the same as yamamoto since june 1st) & his awful strand rate is kinda masking how much better he's pitched since then. he's still not pitching to his 2022 standard, but the argument that he's a write-off for this year & you're buying for next year feels off base. something i haven't really seen anyone talking about is that from march to june, his arm angle was down a few degrees (31 degrees vs 34/35) & his release height was down 0.1ft, which might have been partially why his command was shakier & his shapes weren't playing as well (sinker / changeup guys usually want to have a higher release height so there's a steeper angle into the zone). in july, his arm angle went back to 33 degrees, and his release height was the same as it was in 2022/2023. lo & behold, he's only walked 5% of hitters & his stuff grades on the sinker are way up. it feels like a no-brainer to go out and get him, i'd give up any of the top guys other than maybe nimmala (TINSTAAPP people!!!) + a pretty healthy package of other guys, especially considering you get him for 2 more years AFTER this.

on fastballs 95+ mph in AAA this year: .551 xWOBA / .816 xSLG 54.5 % hard hit rate / 18.2% barrel rate 17.9% whiff rate 68 pitch sample size, not giant but not nothing either. wheels up!

willing to plant my flag that yohendrick pinango is a top 5 prospect in this system & would be INCREDIBLY bummed if they trade him for anything less than controllable pitching. the combination of frankly elite 90th percentile exit velocity (108.8 EV90 is above the 98th percentile of all hitters!!!) combined with how often he makes contact overall & especially in the zone (over 85%!!!) is incredibly rare. i looked back at the last 5 years in AAA for anyone with over 100 batted balls, under 25 years old who has an EV90 over 108 & in-zone contact rate over 85% & the list is: Junior Caminero (2024) James Wood (2024) Ronny Mauricio (2023) Roman Anthony x2 (2024 & 2025 what a freak) Yohendrick Pinango (2025) that's it!! that's the whole list! plus he doesn't even hit the ball on the ground all that often, he's got about a league average groundball rate this season. there are obviously blemishes in the profile right now: he's a bit too passive with his swing decisions so he doesn't get into his power as often as you'd like he's probably a below average defender he's a lefty & doesn't hit lefties well so he's basically strong side platoon limited for now but the bat is real! & you can project on the swing decisions since he made a major approach change already this year (overall swing rate is down close to 10% from 2024). with a little more in-zone aggression the comps I see are like pint-sized tyler soderstrom or ok-defender wilyer abreu

i'd be shocked if dane myers or harrison bader WASNT on the team after the deadline considering what this team values & how those guys do vs lefties. not to mention the thought of closing out a game with a bader/myers + varsho + straw defensive outfield would probably excite ross in a way that makes mrs. atkins very jealous

my guess would be that sandy's price will be similar to what the marlins got for luzardo (guys with big stuff, coming off down performances) + the additional tax that comes with trading in-season vs the offseason. that rounds out to something like a fringe top 100 guy + a depth piece + a flier on a young up-the-middle guy or pitcher. depending on the marlins' preferences that probably looks something like: yesavage or roden (MAYBE orelvis if they value him highly but those contact rates are yikes) rainer nunez, josh kasevich or yohendrick pinango (i would be VERY bummed if they trade pinango though, he's their next big breakout guy) edward duran, juan sanchez or daniel guerra FWIW I would absolutely do this if I were the jays. guys with his kind of stuff & pedigree at that price w/ years of control barely ever get moved. his command is coming back & there's some immediate pitch mix changes (e.g get back to throwing a lot more changeup behind in count to lefties) that might bring him all the way back.