sliderguy35

honestly shocked that loperfido isn't an Angel already, he seems exactly like their type + he can at least fake it out there in center while they figure out an actual solution. would love to see the jays try and get bob steve back, he's unbelievably nasty (when healthy)

my hottest take that I actually kinda believe is that the orioles don't really need to invest heavily in pitching. bradish feels like he's going to come out as a true capital-a Ace this season. both of his fastballs are incredibly weird (complimentary) and the breaking balls get elite movement at premium velocity (they also have great approach angles due to his high release point). I feel pretty confident that he's going to get cy young votes this season (i don't sports bet, but getting him at 35-1 feels like excellent value if you're into that sort of thing). trevor rogers isn't actually as good as his numbers indicated last year, but he's still a lower-end 2 / higher-end 3 kind of arm. dean kremer is doing his best jose berrios impression, cade povich pitched to solid peripherals and they've got a couple of young guys in AAA that fangraphs seems to like. don't get me wrong - it's not a great staff & could use a bit more depth. but if they ended up being the lucas giolito or tyler mahle team & brought in a real lefty reliever (i.e caleb ferguson), that'd probably be enough for them to end up as the 15th-18th best staff. given how this offense is probably going to mash, the pitching only needs to be ok for this team to be pretty good again.

i think miles gets sent back pretty quickly unless they figure out some kind of alternative breaking ball shape for him or he starts sitting 97-98 mph. the sinker shape is good given the velocity and release height but he's kind of just a 1 pitch guy to me, since all the other pitches are pretty stock / uninspiring. would love to see them try and tighten up the curveball to get more of a downer shape in the 83-85 range. about what you'd expect from a rule 5 guy though, especially when you're not picking from the cream of the crop (i really like the guy the rockies took at 1, his changeup is freaky).

the ricciardi jays at least had rios / wells holding it down & then would sprinkle in frank thomas / bengie molina / orlando hudson these o's look like mike elias hand-picked them from the crowd of a zac brown band concert

just an astonishing collection of white guys from the orioles front office. they should really trade basallo and sign j.t realmuto to officially complete the set

i don't really buy this, bad teams aren't really gonna care if he's below average in the field as long as he can hit even a little bit. the data is pretty eye popping as well (108 EV90 with above average zone & overall contact rates, average groundball rate). there aren't a lot of guys his age or younger that can put together that kind of contact data at AAA. i mean the rockies and pirates literally have replacement level projections at left field AND dh. if he ends up being a 1-1.5 WAR, 105-110 wRC+ strong-side platoon option, i'm sure they'd be absolutely thrilled.

the mets are using monopoly money, but they still care about years & roster flexibility. if you assume they're both ~140 wRC+ bats over the next few years, stearns would probably rather pay schwarber a higher AAV but for 2 less years to give him more flexibility down the road. it hasn't been reported at all, but i sneaky also think the mets are probably looking to put a first basemen's mitt in soto's hand sooner rather than later & having pete extended blocks that idea.

first impression: this is an all-time exchange of player names oviedo is interesting. he came back from TJ with a lower arm slot but also somehow picked up 5(!) additional inches of vertical break on his fastball (lowering your arm slot usually has an inverse relationship with vertical break), so now he's got an elite fastball & a plus slider, but he's still got below average command and no real approach against left-handed hitters. i'd bet my house that the red sox give him some kind of split or kick change to help out against left-handers but we're still talking about a guy who's literally been the worst pitcher in MLB at throwing first pitch strikes since 2023. if they can get him even close to league average in that category, he'll be a steal, but if they can't he's probably just a middle reliever.

i think if you're looking at bo through an optimistic lens, the comp that you could use is robinson cano. very similar profile to bo: plays everyday / doesn't walk or strike out alot / just hits a ton with some pop. obviously he was a PED guy in his age 35 season but he was still incredibly valuable in his late 20s / early 30s (140 wRC+ as a 33 year old). if you're looking at bo through a negative lens, then you'd look at him as the next xander bogaerts. similar profile to bo heading into free agency (although he was 2 years older), but immediately stopped hitting for power once age caught up to him and is now just a league average guy they have to pay $25M a year for the next decade. if you treat the range of outcomes as a spectrum from bogaerts to cano, i think bo is leaning more towards the cano side of things. the hard hit and barrel rates give me more confidence he'll be able to continue to hit for enough power to be a plus on that side of the ball. that being said, if i have to choose between him and tucker, i'm taking the guy who's basically corey seager if he were a corner outfielder. at that point, they can trade for a luis garcia jr. / jeff mcneil / gavin lux as a cheap stopgap / platoon option with ernie before figuring out a longer term solution next offseason when there's a much better market for 2nd basemen (jazz / brandon lowe / nico hoerner / gleyber).

brian bannister (the CWS pitching director) is the man & one of the smartest pitching people out there. if they saw something they liked, it's probably legit & i'd be shocked if he wasn't at least league average, then flipped at the deadline

knowing about / analyzing what changes should be made based on publicly available information vs. the process of actually taking action to communicate to the players and make these changes are completely different. i can tell you based on what we know of approach angles that a sinker and a slider with more depth would be better for ponce, but i wouldn't know what the correct seam orientations, grip pressure, mental cues, etc that are unique to each player would be needed to actually teach someone how to throw effective ML versions those pitches. not to mention whether the guy would feel comfortable throwing them for strikes, or how difficult it would be to communicate this to a guy who just had one of the best pitching seasons of all time in the KBO & get him to completely buy in on these changes. the teams that are good at making these kinds of arsenal changes for guys have an organizational culture that not only empowers players to have an understanding of what changes are most effective from a data perspective, but also coaching staffs with the ability to easily teach these changes to guys and communicate well enough to get them to buy in. i'm sure that any analyst in the blue jays org that actually looked at the numbers probably came to the same conclusion that i did, but there's so much more to the process than just the data side. iirc in the minor leagues its because the seams are raised and the ball is a bit tackier naturally. there's a really good lance brozdowski video about this that i'll edit into this post later

i know there's a lot of excitement from the twitter bros about ponce, but think i'm lower on him than most. yes, the average fastball velo is up to 95.5 MPH (which is good!) but when you look under the hood at the release height / shape data, it's a lot less impressive of a pitch. the induced vertical break on his fastball in the KBO was 17 inches which is above the ML average (15.8 inches for a right handed starting pitcher). however the ball in the KBO (as well as NPB & below AAA) is slightly different from the ball that is used in MLB, which often inflates pitch shape. realistically, when using a MLB ball, he'll probably be right around league average the kicker of it all is his release height. because ponce is a big guy with mediocre extension, he throws from a 6.3 ft release height which is well above the ML average (5.8 ft). 4 seamers with a flatter approach angles perform the best, but an above average release height with mediocre raw movement means that the approach angle on the fastball isn't what you want. usually, high release point guys who's fastballs perform well usually do so through outlier horizontal movement, outlier velocity, or a combination of the 2 (think dylan cease or cole ragans). ponce's velocity is up, but it's only about 1 mph harder than the average right handed starting pitcher, compared to right handed guys with similar release heights like dylan cease or robert suarez who are living in the upper 90s. it's just not a pitch that a starter would be able to throw 40% of the time and expect good results against ML hitters. that's not to say i'm completely out on him, i think the new changeup is going to be a legitimate ++ pitch. averaging only 2 inches of vertical break from that high of a release point at 88 MPH is going to set stuff models on fire. if he's able to raise his velocity in relief and consistently live in the 96-98 mph range with his fastball combined with that changeup, he's going to be a pretty electric reliever (the cutter & curveball are both pretty mediocre imo). i just don't see him as a starter unless they: drastically increase the sinker usage to the point where both it and the 4 seam fastball are hovering in the 20-25% range get to close to 30% changeup usage (really depthy change-ups are platoon neutral) ditch the cutter and bring back his old gyro slider (another pitch that would play really well from a high release point, think 2023 kevin ginkel) and i don't have a ton of faith in the organization to make big sweeping changes to a guy's arsenal like that. ultimately i do like the deal because of the roster flexibility / injury protection it provides. without any changes, he's probably giving you what berrios would over 130-140 innings for $9M less & if you can't find a berrios trade, he could be a legitimate bullpen guy. i just think people need to pump the brakes on him being anything better than a 5th starter unless they make some changes.

every org is going to do their best to develop their players while keeping them healthy, a lot of why certain orgs seem to have more pitching injuries is just the types of amateur players that teams are looking to acquire. the dodgers love tall, projectable high school arms & hard throwing position player -> pitcher conversion candidates with good fastball traits, and then developing pitch mixes from there. naturally, these kinds of players are guys who end up seeing large, quick velocity spikes and because of that, a higher risk of injury. if these guys manage to stay healthy and click though, that's where you'll start to see elite pitching prospects the guardians love athletic college guys that have less projectable bodies but good command and then train velocity through mechanical efficiency rather than natural growth. so they generally have fewer injuries as an org since the velo ceiling is lower or is developed over time rather raised than in a short period. the overall ceilings on these kind of guys is generally lower (unless you have an outlier with 80 grade command like shane bieber), but they usually stay healthier. the dodgers have so much major league and organizational depth because of their payroll, they can afford to take shots at these higher upside guys even if they burn out. teams like the guardians really want to get the most out of their controllable years from these pitchers, so they're naturally going to be more risk averse in the types of players they look to acquire. that's the general consensus from what i've read / seen over the last couple of years at least

unfortunately if i knew that, i'd probably have a job with a team somewhere instead of just posting online lol my theory is that it's partially a pete walker thing. the teams that are really good at this (yankees / phillies / rays) have pitching coaches that are former players, who are really involved in the data side of things and have been using it since they started coaching. matt blake and caleb cotham both have direct experience working with the driveline guys before they got their current roles. pete's been the pitching coach of the jays since driveline was founded in 2012 lol, that's not to say that pete does a bad job, the jays do a really good job with the mix / count leverage stuff i mentioned earlier, but they also seem to have a good understanding of the bio-mech side of things & keeping guys healthy. it just seems to be a trade-off of prioritizing those aspects over being a clubhouse leader in pitch design it looks like the org is trying to be more proactive about this though. their new minor league pitching coordinator they hired last year Justin Lehr, seems to be a step in the right direction based on everything i've read. unfortunately there's just not as much publicly available data on the minor league side so it's tough to see real change.

pitching stuff dev / mix expansion just isn't something the org is very good at IMO. they aren't like the yankees or the rays where they have an advanced understanding of seam effects to where they can acquire a max fried / edwin uceta give them a new pitch and have it grade out / perform well. when they go dumpster diving and "fix" a pitcher, it's always due to A) the emphasis on count leverage, B) a change in existing pitch mix, or C) a combination of the two. braydon fisher and tommy nance are good examples, they went hunting for guys who already had good stuff numbers, found what pitch they can throw for strikes the easiest (sliders, in both cases) & pushed the early count usage to get ahead of more hitters. that's kinda why i think cease is a good fit for them. generally these high-slot 4-seam carry guys are limited in how much lateral movement they can impart on the baseball, so it limits their mix naturally. maybe a smarter team might be able to get some kinda landon knack kick-change or nick pivetta-esque sweeper from that slot, the jays have just shown time & again that they aren't capable of doing that. (yesavage already had his splitter before he entered the org, but thats another reason why he's a unicorn) so if i'm the blue jays & I know that I can't develop new pitches for my staff like my contemporaries are able too, I might as well acquire a guy who's pretty maxed out stuff-wise & see if I can help him improve in the way that I know we can (mix adjustment / count leverage). that's the way I see it at least it is not but that's my GOAT

love the signing, i was on record a few weeks ago that i thought he was the best guy available by far (not counting trades). guys who routinely post K%-BB% rates close to 20 don't pop up very often. there's also merit to the BABIP regression discussion, last year Cease had a flyball rate 9% higher than league average and a BABIP 10% higher than league average (FB%+ of 109 / BABIP+ of 110). Among the 471 qualified starting pitcher seasons, since 2016 (excluding 2020 due to sample size) only 2 other pitchers have had a BABIP+ of 110 or above and a FB%+ of 109 or above in the same year. it's extremely rare for a pitcher to give up this many flyballs & still have a high BABIP. there's reason to believe the walk rate might come down as well. there's all talk of the pete walker magic when the jays "fixed" robbie ray & eric lauer, but the reality is that both of their First-Pitch Strike %s (FPS%) went up by a significant amount which reduced their walk rates in turn. essentially every significant starting pitching acquisition by the jays in the last 5 years has had their FPS% jump upon initially joining the team (except for kikuchi, but he figured it out by year 3). it's clearly something they prioritize in the organization. cease is currently below average at getting first pitch strikes and pitching with count leverage (60%). the jays probably won't touch his pitching repertoire or mix at all, but i'd bet on cease getting into the ~63% range for FPS% and posting a career low walk rate as well. all that being said, it just feels like there's going to be a lost season & a half somewhere over the lifespan of this contract. i'm just inherently worried about health when you're talking about pitchers getting into their 30s & throwing breaking balls in the upper 80s / low 90s, the jays have avoided major pitching injuries over the last few years, but they've also mostly avoided these kinds of high-velo breaking ball guys. you still always do the contract since it helps you win the world series next year, you just have to hope its more in the gerrit cole / justin verlander age range where the injury happens towards the end of the deal, rather than what happened with corbin burnes / robbie ray

fangraphs has him as a below average defender, likely to move across the diamond relatively soon. his FA is gonna be fascinating, the contact rates are untenable at the big league level, but he's been dealing with injuries the past few years so there's some hope that with that getting better + a swing change, he could tap into his raw power more. if he doesn't though, he just will not make enough contact to become an impact major leaguer. he could realistically end up being the next keston hiura or franmil reyes to potentially a nick kurtz level talent if he's able to make a swing change and put it together. really fascinating player, but i don't see the blue jays being that involved. he screams mariner or padre to me

interesting that atkins made a note about already starting trade discussions for starting pitching in the press conference today. they're not going to sell the farm for 1 year of skubal, that's just not how this FO has ever operated in the off-season, but there are some interesting trade candidates out there: pablo lopez: are the twins really going to want to pay lopez $20M per year for the next 2 seasons after their recent fire sale at the deadline? i think he'll get moved over joe ryan or bailey ober because of that kris bubic: a rental but one that wouldn't cost nearly as much as skubal. pitched like a top of the rotation arm when healthy last season, but doesn't have the same track record. the royals have a ton of upper minors pitching depth but almost nothing in the outfield. the jays have a ton of upper minors OF depth (loperfido / clase / schreck / pinango), seems like a match made in heaven sandy alcantara: not going to re-hash all the discussion had at the trade deadline but the marlins do have a lot of pitching depth & sandy is not on the same timeline as the rest of their staff. looked like an ace again down the stretch as well (11% SwStr, 17.4 K%-BB%, 48% GB rate after August 1st). there's some other guys that I, being a sicko, personally like & have a lot of indicators of breaking out next season that they should target (mitch spence!!! ryan feltner!!! kumar rocker!!!), but would be absolutely shocked if the jays went that way lol

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=c%2C119%2C13&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&v_cr=202301&team=0&sortcol=2&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Cease xFIP- was 86, 15th among qualified starters, just ahead of joe ryan

i'm not brownie but i am high on cease. the case is basically that his K% - BB% has been elite for 5 seasons in a row & he just posted the highest swinging strike rate of his career. these are the stats that do a better job of indicating future performance than just his ERA. His ERA is higher mainly because he ran a .320 BABIP despite the fact that he mostly induces flyballs (which are the type of batted ball with the lowest BABIP). in fact, in the last 10 years, there's only been 3 qualified pitchers (not counting 2020 due to small sample size) who've had a flyball rate and a BABIP that are both 10% higher than league average: 2022 corey kluber, 2017 rick porcello, & 2025 dylan cease. you're essentially betting on the fact that the things he can control (strikeouts / walks / Stuff numbers) will continue on & the stuff that he can't control (batted ball luck) will regress to at least not being historically bad. if that happens, you're looking at a guy that would be getting down-ballot cy young votes at potentially a slight discount (although mlb teams are a lot smarter than I am so I have to assume that they know this & there won't really be a discount at all). but definitely not someone who would be our 4th starter

ernie was basically the same guy in 2025 as he was in 2024 with the bat, he's always going to outperform his xStats because of how frequently he pulls the ball in the air. that being said, he doesn't have any real pop and swings too much so he's going to be streaky but hover around league average by the end of the season. haven't looked too deep into the FA class yet (definitely will in the coming week) but i'm going to be the first guy to plant my flag on brad keller island. electric stuff since moving to the pen, whiff rates have skyrocketed while still getting a ton of groundballs. he's going to get 75-80% of what guys like devin williams & robert suarez get just because of the lack of name recognition & track record, but i'd be willing to bet that he's more valuable than either of them next season.

yeah but snell's not going to say "man, just poor defense from teo out there that led to the triple" in a press conference, even if he was thinking it. much easier to just cite the exit velo and pass it off as unlucky i don't really think any of what snell said is off-base. he mostly shut the jays down today, just got over-extended because roberts is scared of his own bullpen & out-pitched by an all-time performance from yesavage

part of the reason why yesavage's splitter wasn't really a factor in game 1 is because he was rarely getting count leverage (only 50% first pitch strikes). during his regular season starts, he would only throw it 10% of the time when behind in the count. it'll be interesting to see if the blue jays bump the early count splitter usage first time through the order as a bit of a mixup (similarly to what the dodgers did with yamamoto in game 2).

part of me wonders if bo playing 2nd is specifically because yesavage is on the bump today. yesavage is a guy who generates a ton of whiffs & batted balls to the left side of the diamond so the 2nd baseman has less defensive responsibility when he starts (generally, this is still baseball & anything can happen) here's yesavage's batted ball spray chart for the regular / postseason. here's the same spray chart for his triple A starts wouldnt be surprised if we get bo @ DH later in the series with a different starter

this'll be a fun matchup, they're weirdly pretty similar from a results perspective but they get there in completely different ways. both guys have below average walk & first pitch strike rates but make up for it by getting plus/plus swing and miss and strikeouts. the difference is: yesavage has below average command but is throwing just enough strikes to brute force through hitters with elite Stuff+ numbers (mainly due to the crazy angles combined with the velocity on his splitter / slider from his delivery) snell on the other hand has average stuff but really elite command that lets it play up to get whiffs. it might seem counterintuitive to think of a guy with an above average walk rate as having elite command but snell's a guy who knows where his stuff plays and is willing to nibble at the edges of the zone to avoid taking major damage & make hitters get themselves out. oddly enough, i think both teams' offenses match up really well against the opposing starter. the dodgers aren't going to chase and are going to force yesavage into the zone to beat them. meanwhile the jays love to run up the count (which snell naturally does) and had the 2nd best run value as a team against balls in the shadow zone (the edges of the strike zone) this season. i think it'll be a higher scoring game than most people might think.