Owen Hill

The Toronto Blue Jays have made another high-profile acquisition in an already busy offseason, this time addressing the lineup by signing Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year contract. It’s an exciting deal, but it’s not quite the position player signing Jays fans were expecting or hoping for when this offseason started. It’s been impossible to look into the markets of consensus top free agent Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette without acknowledging the Blue Jays as an obvious fit. While Jays fans should be well practiced at avoiding falling victim to the rumour mill by now, there has been somewhat of an assumption that the Jays will be signing at least one of those guys, even from some industry insiders. Whenever a team makes a big addition – and Okamoto’s four-year, $60 million deal is a big addition – there’s always discourse as to how the move will impact the team's approach to the rest of the market. This signing puts the Blue Jays at an estimated luxury tax payroll of just over $308 million, which is currently the second highest mark in MLB, following only the L.A. Dodgers. It’s impossible to have a take other than that being awesome for Blue Jays fans, but it could very well make it financially impossible for the club to add another nine-figure contract like the ones that Bichette and Tucker seem destined to sign. Or maybe it’s still possible, but it would take a subtraction from the current roster via trade. In that case, Anthony Santander and José Berríos are the obvious names to point at. There’s also a chance that the Blue Jays continue acting like a behemoth organization and are able to sign one of Tucker or Bichette without major money going out the door. Before we predict which route the Jays are going to take when approaching their pursuits of Tucker and Bichette, it’s important to know what they’re getting in Okamoto. He’s put up some eye-popping numbers throughout his 11 seasons in Japan’s NPB, including a stretch of six straight seasons from 2018-23 where he hit at least 30 homers, and he hasn’t posted an OPS below .800 since his age-21 season in 2017. Aside from the obvious fact that Okamoto has been consistently one of Japan’s best hitters throughout his career, it’s not hard to assume that one of the things the Blue Jays liked most about his game is the way he combines that pop with an ability to avoid swing and miss and put the ball in play. It’s an identity shared by so many Blue Jays hitters, and we just watched the Jays ride that identity to a top-five offense in 2025, and to a World Series berth. There aren’t very many questions about Okamoto’s bat. He’s expected to bring a high floor and fit right into an already dynamic lineup with his strong approach. Defensively, the hope is that Okamoto can be an average defensive third baseman and a well-above-average first baseman. There are also a few whispers that he could fit in a corner outfield spot. Looking at the way the Jays roster is currently built, it wouldn’t be hard to assume they’re pretty happy with where it’s at heading into 2026. They will likely be one of the favourites to win the American League again. To be clear, the Blue Jays almost definitely feel like their roster is close to complete and would feel good about their chances of repeating as American League champions without another big-name acquisition. But if they want to get greedy, there’s still space for the Jays to fit either Bichette or Tucker and push the ceiling of this team as high as it’s ever been. As far as Bichette, the likely scenario, if he were to return, is that it would be as a second baseman, with Andrés Giménez sliding over to shortstop, just as we saw in the World Series. Okamoto will likely be the everyday third baseman, which is going to push Addison Barger into a regular role in right field, with Santander getting the majority of the playing time in left. The Tucker fit is maybe a little bit less clear at first glance. Adding Tucker would leave one of Santander or Barger on the outside looking in when it comes to playing time, unless the rumours of Okamoto’s viability in the outfield are true, and the three of them split two positions, as well as the odd appearance as the designated hitter. In this scenario, Ernie Clement is the everyday second baseman. If I had to bet, a Tucker signing doesn’t come without a Santander trade, but a Bichette reunion could allow the Jays to keep the current roster intact. The good news for Jays fans is that early reporting around the topic is that the team isn't being ruled out of either the Tucker or Bichette market despite the Okamoto signing. To tie a bow on this for now, I don’t think that signing Okamoto necessarily helps the Jays’ chances of signing either Bichette or Tucker, but that’s not to say that either scenario outlined above is impossible. All 30 teams in baseball can make room on their roster for either Bichette or Tucker, including the Blue Jays after signing Okamoto. It’s simply going to come down to which teams make the best offers, as well as the choices of the players. If there’s money still available, it’s hard to make a case against Toronto being one of the most attractive destinations in MLB, with a World Series-ready roster already in place. If you’ve read through this whole article and are still feeling like you have no idea if the Jays are still going to be in the Bichette and Tucker markets, welcome to the MLB offseason! Nobody knows anything until a deal is done. View full article

In this video, we break down six hitters, including Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette, that the Blue Jays could sign in MLB free agency. Will Toronto go big with a Tucker or Bichette signing, or will they pursue some of the lesser names listed, like Cody Bellinger or Jorge Polanco? View full video

On the same day the Jays announced the signing of Dylan Cease to a $210 million deal, GM Ross Atkins was back at it, making another splash in the free agent pitching market, this time signing right-hander Cody Ponce to a three-year, $30 million deal. At first glance, guaranteeing that type of term and money to a 31-year-old that hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2021 is a bit of an eyebrow raiser, but when you take a peek at what Ponce was doing to hitters in the KBO last season, it starts to make some sense. Over 180.2 innings pitched for the Hanwha Eagles, Ponce absolutely dominated. He worked a 1.89 ERA with a strikeout rate of 36.2%. He only gave up 0.5 HR/9 and allowed a hard-hit rate of just 16.7% Those numbers translated to a 17-1 record and led him to win the KBO’s MVP award. Ponce left Major League Baseball for Japan’s NPB after struggling through a pair of seasons in Pittsburgh in 2020 and 2021, but he didn’t immediately flourish overseas. He worked his way through two solid, but not exactly eye-catching, seasons for the NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters with an ERA in the mid-3.00s before signing with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles for the 2024 season. The 2024 season had to have been pretty disappointing for Ponce. Despite his strikeout and walk rates, hard-hit rate, and FIP remaining similar to those from his two previous NPB seasons, his ERA ballooned to 6.72 over 15 appearances and 12 starts. That’s part of what makes his dominant MVP campaign, at 30 years old, in a new league, so surprising. Ponce must have discovered something in his transition between NPB and the KBO. I have to credit Lance Brozdowski and his article dedicated to Ponce for just about all of the data I can provide in this Ponce breakdown, and if you’re interested in in-depth pitching breakdowns, his Substack is a must-read. Now, back to Ponce. The first thing to look at is his fastball velocity. He averaged 95.5 mph on his four-seamer while maxing out at 98.5 in 2025, up over two miles per hour from the previous season. That jump in velo, paired with Ponce’s impressive extension (he’s 6-foot-6), has to make him a pretty uncomfortable at-bat, and immediately makes it more believable that he can be successful in MLB. The other big change Ponce made was adding a change-up. That’s different from a splitter, but it is still the style of pitch we know the Jays have been enamoured with when targeting and developing pitchers. The change-up averaged about 87.5 mph and produced silly whiff and zone whiff rates of 46% and 39%, respectively. Just think about that for just one more second: 39% of the time that KBO hitters swung at Ponce’s change-up in the strike zone, they missed it. Aside from the fastball/change-up combination, Ponce also throws a cutter and a bigger, slower curveball, as well as flashing a sinker. The ridiculous whiff rates are obviously not going to translate directly against MLB hitters, but they don’t have to be quite that big for Ponce to remain effective, especially if he can keep the contact that he does give up on the softer side. It’s still too early to say how the Jays plan to utilize Ponce. He’s been a starter his whole career, and I’d expect that’s what the Jays have in mind for him, but the starting rotation is starting to look pretty full. As it lined up before the Ponce addition, the Jays could have run out a rotation of Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos, with Eric Lauer in a swing-man role. Throwing Ponce into the mix certainly looks like it causes a logjam in that fifth spot in the rotation. Just for fun, here are FanGraphs's 2026 Steamer projections for Ponce, Berríos, and Lauer, the three guys in the mix for that fifth rotation spot: Pitcher 2026 Projected Starts/IP 2026 Projected ERA 2026 Projected WAR Cody Ponce 26/148 4.08 2.2 José Berríos 28/159 4.52 1.5 Eric Lauer 5/65 (38 relief appearances) 4.27 0.3 Interestingly enough, Ponce outperforms Berríos, if only marginally. These things tend to work themselves out, and there’s never been a team that has had too much starting pitching. Even still, it looks like another move may be on the horizon. Could the Jays try to eat some of the approximately $67 million left on the three years of Berríos’s contract, trade him away, and slide Ponce right into that fifth spot? Or do the Jays foresee Ponce playing a similar role to that which Lauer played in 2025? They could use him as a bullpen piece until they inevitably need an extended stretch of starts due to an injury to one of their other starters. Regardless of the role the Jays end up carving out for Ponce in 2026, this move also shores up the team's rotation depth for 2027 and '28. Gausman and Bieber are both free agents after this season, and Berríos has an opt-out – although he’d need to drastically outperform those projections to even consider taking it. Regardless, it’s so much fun to see the Jays moving so quickly and aggressively early in the offseason, addressing what was clearly their number one priority. View full article

The Blue Jays kicked off their offseason with a bang, agreeing to terms with Dylan Cease last week. So, obviously, it’s about time that I get greedy and start looking at the next way I want them to improve the roster heading into 2026. In light of this recent Jon Morosi tweet suggesting the Jays at least checked in, I think it’s only fitting that I dive into the Diamondbacks’ All-Star second baseman, Ketel Marte. Broadly, in terms of fit, it’s pretty easy to picture Marte as the everyday second baseman for the Jays in 2026. With the starting rotation already addressed, and with Bo Bichette currently out testing the free agent market, one of the two middle infield spots looks to me like the most glaring hole on the roster. Andrés Giménez will factor in on an everyday basis, and there’s no doubt that should Bo walk (and even if he were to re-sign), the Jays would be more than comfortable having Giménez start about 150 games at shortstop. Ernie Clement is essentially the only other name in the middle infield mix at the moment, and he’s a guy whose value comes from his utility and being able to bounce around the infield, not to mention that he was actually a below-average hitter in 2025, finishing the regular season with a 98 wRC+ overall, and just a 75 wRC+ against righties. I would say it’s pretty likely that plan A for the Jays is to just bring back Bichette, but it’s far from a guarantee that that’s what ends up happening. With $210 million committed to Cease already this offseason, the fact that the Jays will be bidding against other teams for Bichette's services, and the uncertainty around where Bo sees himself playing on the diamond, it’s not a bad idea to start formulating backup plans, and it makes sense that the Jays have checked in on Marte. Aside from the obvious positional fit, Marte is as pure a hitter as they come. Since 2023, he has led qualified second basemen in OPS, wRC+, home runs, and fWAR. It’s not very hard to come up with an argument calling him the best offensive second baseman in baseball so far in the 2020s, without even mentioning that he’s a switch-hitter with fairly even splits. It’s almost not worth mentioning the defense when it comes to a hitter this talented, but in Marte’s case, he’s considered about an average defender at second base. I almost feel guilty comparing Marte to Bichette, but looking at results over the past four seasons, it’s pretty easy to see Marte has been the better player. I provide this Stathead player comparison graphic since 2022 understanding the risk it causes to my reputation as a baseball analyst and general ball-knower: Marte has been worth over 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in each of the last three seasons, including 2024, when he was worth 6.4 and finished third in NL MVP voting. Bichette has only finished with more than 4.0 fWAR twice in his career, and not since 2022. There aren’t a ton of directions the Jays could go this offseason that would upgrade their middle infield over what Bichette has provided, but bringing in Marte is probably one of those directions. If you want to talk money, DiamondCentric projects Bichette to make $175 million over seven years this offseason – that's $25 million per season – while Marte has $102.5 million left on his deal (including some deferred money), which runs through 2031, his age-37 campaign. It’s important not to forget that Bichette is a full five years younger than Marte, and re-signing him just about guarantees four or five solid seasons should he stay healthy. Already 32, Marte’s immediate future is a little bit less certain. This article is not meant to be a comparison between Bichette and his potential replacement, but I think it’s important to recognize that Ross Atkins’ goal is to make the 2026 Jays better than the 2025 Jays. Given the term and team-friendly nature of Marte's current deal, the acquisition cost for the Diamondbacks star could get ugly, and we know that the Jays’ system isn’t exactly stacked with blue chip prospects, so it’s hard to say if a trade would even be possible. Still, it’s a lot of fun to imagine Ketel Marte’s bat hitting in front of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the Blue Jays’ lineup. View full article

The Toronto Blue Jays are signing right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease for $210 million over seven years. That’s right, the first big splash of the offseason belongs to the Blue Jays. You don’t have to squint to see what made the Jays so eager to jump the gun on Cease’s market. The 29-year-old has some of the best stuff amongst starting pitchers in the game. His four-seam fastball averaged 97.1 miles per hour in 2025, the sixth-best mark among qualified starters, which factored into his 29.8 strikeout percentage, the third-best among starters. Cease induced a 31 chase percentage and an even more impressive 33.4 whiff percentage. He’ll throw that big heater at the top of and above the zone, while pairing it with a nasty slider down and away to righties, and down-and-in to lefties. Cease is usually looked at as one of the rare two-pitch starting pitchers, as he throws the heater and slider 41% of the time each, but he also mixes in a slower, more 12-6-style curveball, a sinker, a sweeper, and the very occasional change-up. This article is led with talk about stuff for a reason, because it’s hard to believe a starter coming off a season with a 4.55 ERA, just earned a seven-year contract worth over $200 million. The concern for the ERA is somewhat validated by the fact that it was also 4.58 in 2023. The inflated ERA is a little tricky to diagnose, although Cease did walk a pretty high 9.8 percent, and his 1.13 HR/9 allowed were his highest since the shortened 2020 season. It’s also worth noting that the xERA and FIP were in much healthier places last season at 3.46 and 3.56, respectively. None of that scared the Blue Jays, though, as they’ll slide Cease into the Jays’ rotation as the number one starter ahead of a rotation that already includes Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos, which should shape up as one of the more exciting starting fives in baseball. It’s still early to say how getting this deal done will impact the rest of the Blue Jays’ offseason plans, and whether or not the hefty price tag will take them out of or limit them in their pursuit of free agent hitters like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette. Still, the Blue Jays are making a statement early in the offseason, acquiring a premier starting pitcher. The $210 million over seven years is a fair bit above the $145 million over 5 years Cease was projected to make, according to ESPN, although Cease is clearly in the top three or four free-agent starters. Ken Rosenthal is also reporting that the deal does include deferrals. Coming off of their best season in 32 years, the Blue Jays look like their eager to build on the success of 2025. View full article

On the morning of January 17, the Toronto Blue Jays acquired $2 million in international bonus pool money and Myles Straw from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. As this news broke, Blue Jays fans exploded with excitement, but none of that excitement was directed towards Straw. See, at the time, the week leading up to this trade was filled with talk of 23-year-old Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, who was in the process of coming stateside to sign with a major league team as an international amateur. The sweepstakes were long and tedious, but as a decision drew near, it was reported that the Blue Jays were a finalist to sign Sasaki, along with the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. When the news of the Straw deal broke, many fans pointed to the $2 million in bonus pool money that could be handed directly to Sasaki if he were to sign with Toronto and jumped to the conclusion that the Jays knew Sasaki was going to choose them, or at least had a strong belief that the additional $2 million would set them apart from the other finalists. However, Cleveland wasn’t just going to give away bonus pool money to Toronto as a good deed. In return for the bonus pool money, the Blue Jays had to take on Straw and $11 million of his remaining salary for 2025 and 2026. That’s not an insignificant chunk of change, and it was pretty close to being considered dead money, because in 2024, Straw only got into seven major league games. He spent almost the entirety of his age-29 season playing for Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate. In nearly 500 plate appearances, his .651 OPS was well below the Triple-A average, and he hit just three homers. It’s not often you see players on major league contracts spend entire healthy seasons in the minors; this contract looked like it was completely underwater. Cleveland was no doubt elated to get out of the contract, and it’s safe to presume the Jays didn’t love taking it on, but it would easily be worth the price if it helped them acquire a cost-controlled, future superstar starting pitcher in Sasaki. Of course, as we now know, on the evening of the same day that the Blue Jays traded for Straw, disaster struck, and Sasaki announced on his personal social media that he had agreed to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The baseball world once again cracked jokes at the expense of the Blue Jays and their inability to push a high-profile free agent acquisition over the line. Blue Jays fans descended into anger and frustration, having gotten their hopes up for Sasaki and instead being left with Straw. When the dust settled and we evaluated the Blue Jays’ roster outlook heading into spring training, it was hard to even find a spot on the roster for Straw. If it weren't for Daulton Varsho’s delayed start to the season due to a long recovery from shoulder surgery, Straw may have been relegated to starting another season in the minors. The rest of the baseball world didn’t respect it yet, but coming into 2025, the Blue Jays planned on being a serious contender. Not a lot of people saw the vision that included Myles Straw playing a role on a contending team. Well, in 2025, both Straw and the Jays have proved everyone wrong. The Blue Jays have had a stranglehold on the top spot in the American League East for more than a month and look to be cruising back into October, despite so many people counting them out after their disappointing 2024. And Straw is a big reason why. Ask John Schneider how his team has produced some of the best offensive numbers in the game, and how his position player group has come together to lead baseball in FanGraphs WAR, and he’ll talk about the importance, not of one through nine, but one through 13. He’d tell you that every player on the roster has a role to play every day, whether that’s starting at shortstop, laying down a bunt in a key situation, or coming in as a defensive replacement to protect a late lead. Myles Straw has bought into that philosophy and played his role perfectly. He’s top 10 among outfielders with 12 defensive runs saved despite playing an average of about 400 fewer innings than every player above him on the list. His defence has been nothing short of elite this year. It's been the main factor helping him to a 1.6 WAR according to FanGraphs and a 2.3 WAR according to Baseball Reference. That’s a very valuable player! And don’t let the emphasis on his glove let you forget his contributions with the bat. Straw has played an important role for the Jays’ elite offense this year. The overall numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, but his 10 successful sacrifice bunts are the third most in baseball, his baserunning is elite, and his .673 OPS in the majors this season is actually better than his OPS at Triple-A last season. He recently registered his first career multi-homer game against the Texas Rangers, and his four homers this season have tied his career high set in 2021. The overall picture won't blow you away, but Straw has been well worth the $6.4 million (of which Toronto is paying $5 million) he’s making this season. FanGraphs values one WAR at about $8 million, so his 1.6 fWAR this year would already make Straw’s season worth about $12.5 million on the open market. If we use bWAR instead, his 2.3 wins above replacement would have Straw worth more than $18 million. Not only have the Jays broken even on what was expected to be a negative value contract, but Straw has actually provided excess value. To turn the trade from an A to an A+, the Blue Jays recently agreed to sign an exciting 18-year-old Korean pitcher, Seo-jun Moon, to an amateur free agent contract with $1.5 million of their extra $2 million in bonus pool money. Moon was considered one of the top pitching prospects for this year's KBO draft, but he chose to sign with the Blue Jays rather than begin his career in the KBO. There’s still a lot of season left to play, and Myles Straw is still under contract for 2026, but it’s been really fun to watch him turn one of the worst stories of the 2025 Blue Jays into one of the best. View full article

Myles Straw has been one of the most underrated contributors for the Blue Jays all season. Let's take a look at how we felt about his acquisition back in January, and give him some credit for his role on this year's Blue Jays. View full video

In the series opener on Monday night against the Chicago Cubs, the Jays picked up a 5-1 victory, highlighted by a three-run homer off the bat of Ernie Clement in the bottom of the sixth inning. Clement’s three-run bomb ended up bringing in the game-winning run, and was the key play in an otherwise fairly low-scoring affair. The curious thing about the homer, though, is that after the game, John Schneider told the media that Ernie Clement had missed a bunt sign prior to hitting the home run. Now, without even thinking about it, if given the choice, you, me, and the Jays would take the three run homer over a successful sacrifice bunt in every single baseball situation in the history of the sport, so why was Schneider willing to give up a chance for a three run homer – or any other run scoring hit – to willingly give the other team an out? It’s something we’ve seen the Jays do a lot this season, and to their credit, when they do it, it generally goes pretty well. The Jays are 18-6 this season when successfully completing a sacrifice bunt, with nine of those wins coming in games they won by two or less. The choice to attempt a sacrifice bunt is almost always made in close games where a single run will drastically swing the situation in your favour. Hence, the importance of execution always seems to be magnified when it comes to actually getting the bunt down and advancing the runner(s). A failed sacrifice bunt often turns into a disaster; a double play could completely take the pressure off the pitcher, or the runners could be stuck where they started while the defence gets to collect a free out. So, it’s a good thing that the Blue Jays, who have attempted the second-most sacrifice bunts in baseball, are also operating at a 75% success rate, over 10% better than league average. If you feel like the Blue Jays bunt a lot, you’d be correct. Their 40 sac bunt attempts are second only to the San Diego Padres at 48, and nearly twice as many compared to the league average of 22 so far this year. There are so many different ways to win in baseball, and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of correlation between how good a team is and how much they bunt. The Jays and Milwaukee Brewers have the two best records in baseball, and are two of the top four teams in attempted sac bunts. On the other hand, the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies are the next two teams in the standings by record, and both are in the bottom five in attempted sacrifice bunts. Bringing it back to the Jays, I think a big part of the reason they’re so eager to sacrifice to get runners in scoring position is because of how effective they are at scoring those runners. Unfortunately, as far as I can tell, there’s no way for me to tell you which percentage of runners the Jays advance via sacrifice end up coming in to score, at least not without going through game logs and counting them individually. Still, I’ve dug up something similar that’s likely very indicative of our missing stat. The Jays are elite at both cashing runners from third base with less than two outs and from second base with zero outs. With a runner on third and less than two out, the Jays are scoring 55.9% of the time, the second-best mark in baseball, and nearly five percent better than league average. They’re even more efficient when there’s a runner on second base and none out, scoring that runner 60% of the time, which is the best mark in baseball and more than nine percent better than league average. Obviously, a sacrifice bunt cannot lead to a situation with a runner on second and none out, but the overall point that the Jays do an excellent job of executing in run-scoring situations stands. The other key factor in all of this is personnel. The way the bottom of the Blue Jays' lineup is built, they depend a lot on not striking out, putting the ball in play, executing when runners are on, and turning the lineup over for the bigger bats. Myles Straw (despite his recent power outburst against the Rangers) represents this concept perfectly and leads the team with 10 sacrifice bunts. Nathan Lukes and Ernie Clement both have six, Tyler Heineman has three, and five players have one. While all of those guys are exceeding expectations with the bat this season, late in close games against high-leverage relievers, they’re more likely to be overmatched, so a productive out, setting the table for a guy like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, or Bo Bichette, might be the most attainable positive outcome. Ordinarily, I tend to lean towards the side of baseball enthusiasts who dislike the sacrifice bunt. Still, I’m not going to disagree with many of the decisions of the third-best offense in baseball by wRC+. View full article

You're kind of right, he's only made 3 appearances since the trade deadline. But to be fair, his stuff was slipping heading into the deadline as well.

Towards the end of May, I wrote an article advocating for Yariel Rodríguez to see more high-leverage innings out of the bullpen. Since then, he’s been a key fixture of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, getting some of the biggest outs before the ninth inning in a lot of games, and even picking up a couple of saves when Jeff Hoffman has been unavailable. On the whole, Rodríguez has had an awesome season, especially considering how limited the expectations for him were coming into the year after he struggled as a starter in his first big league campaign. He has a 2.95 ERA in 48 appearances out of the bullpen, with many of those outings longer than the standard one inning for a reliever. Still, the most difficult part of putting together a complete season, like the one Rodríguez has going on, is making it through the grind of 162 games, and the grind seems to be getting to him these days. He’s got just two strikeouts to seven walks in his last nine appearances and has given up runs in three of his last four, including in both of his outings against the Dodgers. The most obvious symptom of Rodríguez’s wavering stuff is that his fastball velocity is down. Over his most recent seven outings, he’s averaging 95.3 mph on his fastball, down from 96.1 mph in his 42 appearances before that. He’s also only touched 97 mph once since July 20, a number we saw from him pretty regularly early on in the season. The dip in fastball velocity is concerning in and of itself, and when you add that to the fact that it correlates perfectly with his walk rate spiking to above 20%, it looks an awful lot like we’re on a fast track towards disaster. As electric as we've seen Rodríguez’s stuff look at times, so much of his success has actually come from inducing soft contact. On the season, his opponents have an average exit velocity of just 86 mph, which is elite and has led to a very solid .187 opponents batting average. Combining that with a strikeout rate of 26.1% over his first 40 appearances made him one of the more effective relievers in the game. Somewhat surprisingly, his ability to limit hard contact has remained despite the rest of his profile taking a stumble. It’s a small sample, and I’d be willing to bet that if he doesn’t get his fastball velocity back and return to limiting walks, these numbers aren’t going to last long, but in his nine most recent outings, his opponents have a hard-hit rate of 33% and an average exit velocity of just 83.1 mph. Those numbers have certainly helped to keep Rodriguez’s head above water as he’s gone through a rough patch. Still, we’re starting to see the results slip, as opposing teams have taken advantage of his lack of command to score seven earned runs in his last four appearances. When a player goes through a slump, it’s easy to say what’s happening, but a lot more difficult to say why it’s happening. As I alluded to earlier, Rodríguez could be feeling the grind of a 162-game season, and his body’s not quite recovering after appearances as well as it was earlier in the season. There’s also a chance he’s dealing with a minor injury that’s impacting his mechanics. Even with the uncertainty around Rodríguez these days, the Jays bullpen is in a really good spot with the additions of Louis Varland and Seranthony Domínguez, as well as Jeff Hoffman, Brendon Little, Mason Fluharty, Tommy Nance, and Braydon Fisher playing some of their best baseball of the season. Since he’s had such a great year, and the rest of the bullpen looks like it’s in good shape, I’m not ready to push the panic button on Yariel Rodríguez yet. But, as crazy as it is to say, the Jays are entering the home stretch of the season, and if they’re going to peak at the right time, they’re going to need to identify and fix whatever’s causing this recent adversity for Rodríguez. View full article

At this point, you’re probably wondering if I have any hotter takes surrounding the Jays’ recent rough stretch of play, and aside from some thoughts about starting pitching meant for a different article, I really don’t. Since July 28, the day on which George Springer left after being hit in the head with a 96-mph sinker from Kade Strowd, the Jays have lost three out of four series, and a lot of momentum seems to have dried up. That’s not to say the sky is falling. The Jays have now won their last two games against the Dodgers and Cubs. They still hold the best record in the American League, and they're flexing a 4.5-game lead over the Red Sox for the top spot in the AL East. As frustrating as it’s been to watch the Jays sputter towards losing eight of their last 15, they’ve only given up two games to the Red Sox, and they’ve actually gained half a game on the Yankees over that stretch. The failure of the Red Sox and Yankees to take advantage of the Blue Jays’ stumble doesn’t excuse the stumble itself, but it certainly makes it a lot easier to come to terms with. In the same breath, the longer the Jays allow this slump to go, the greater the chances of one of those two teams finding their footing and making a push to get past the Jays in the standings, a nightmare scenario considering the randomness of the AL Wild Card landscape. The first thing that needs to happen for the Jays to get back on the right track is that the offense needs to get back to doing its thing. The Jays have built this lead in the AL East on the backs of an elite position player group that leads baseball in fWAR and ranks third in wRC+. For as much time as we spend talking about the Blue Jays’ run prevention, the run scoring has been the greatest strength of this team, and Springer has been a massive part of that since the outset of the season. His 18 bombs have him tied with Addison Barger for the second most on the team, but perhaps the stat that best illustrates the type of season he's having is his 148 wRC+, which ties him with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the lead among Blue Jays (minimum 140 plate appearances) and puts him within the top 10 qualified players in MLB. Take a look at the top 10 and imagine what each player’s team would look like if he were removed from the lineup for an extended period of time. Player Team wRC+ Aaron Judge New York Yankees 202 Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers 174 Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies 159 Ketel Marte Arizona Diamondbacks 158 Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners 157 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays 148 George Springer Toronto Blue Jays 148 Kyle Stowers Miami Marlins 146 Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins 145 Pete Alonso New York Mets 146 Now, you could look at the Jays’ offensive numbers since July 28 – the day of Springer’s last game before hitting the concussion IL– and tell me that they still have the best wRC+ in the AL, the most homers in the AL, and have scored an impressive 6.2 runs per game since then, but obviously a 45-run outburst over three games in Colorado is going to skew those stats pretty heavily. As unfair as it may be, if we take those three games at the Rockies out of the picture, the Jays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game in 11 games since July 28, more than a full run lower than their season average of 4.9. An 11-game sample is hardly even worth writing about, especially when it purposely omits three games in the middle of that stretch, but it’s more than worth keeping an eye on, especially when it lines up perfectly with the loss of one of the team's best offensive players. The Jays' messaging surrounding Springer has been curious, to say the least. He’s supposedly participating in full baseball activities, but is still waiting to clear a final benchmark of MLB’s concussion protocol, and has been for some time now. He’s missed enough time at this point that he’s going to need at least a couple of appearances on a minor league rehab assignment, which will delay his return. Hopefully, John Schneider will be able to pencil George Springer into his lineup again soon, because the Blue Jays are a completely different team when he’s in the game. View full article

Coming into the year, I don’t think many of you would have believed me if I told you that the Blue Jays would finish July with not only a 3.5-game lead in the American League East, but one of the best records in baseball. The Jays went on an absolute tear in July, highlighted by winning six out of seven against the New York Yankees. The Jays' position players led baseball in both the offensive and defensive components of FanGraphs WAR and were worth 7.9 total fWAR, nearly three full wins ahead of baseball’s second-place team, the Chicago Cubs. It’s no surprise that that led to a borderline dominant 18-8 month. A month like this takes contributions from literally every player on the roster, and that’s exactly what the Jays got. Ten out of 13 Blue Jays to get at least 30 plate appearances had a wRC+ over 100, and nine of them had a wRC+ over 120. Most notably, the Jays led baseball with 150 runs in July, The end of the month is the perfect time to shout out the Jays’ biggest offensive contributors, and they certainly made it tough on me to narrow it down to just five names. Honourable Mentions Addison Barger - .284/.387.568, 6 HR, 5 BB, 27 K, 141 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR He’s not quite setting the world on fire at the same pace he was when he broke out in May, but Addison Barger has really settled into the middle of the Blue Jays’ lineup. His walk rate dropped to just 4.9% in July, and his strikeout rate rose to 25.5%, which are concerning numbers, especially for a guy like Barger whose approach has been so closely monitored early on in his career. Fortunately for Barger and the Blue Jays, he’s still been able to get his A-swing off and get to his power. He crushed 14 extra-base hits in July, including six homers, which helped carry him to a .995 OPS. Barger’s left-handed bat completely transforms the Jays’ lineup against right-handed pitching, and he was a huge part of the Blue Jays offence that led baseball in runs this past month. Nathan Lukes - .247/.315/.494, 5 HR, 8 BB, 12 K, 123 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR Admittedly, I wasn’t a huge fan of John Schneider putting Nathan Lukes in the leadoff spot against righties. But in July, he proved me wrong. Lukes kind of embodies what made the Blue Jays so pesky in July. His 13.2% strikeout rate in July was actually up from his season average, and his 8.8% walk rate was actually down, which tells you a lot about the kind of season he’s been having. Putting the analysis to the side for a sentence here, it feels like when Lukes is in the box, he always has a chance to make something happen. Whether it’s getting a groundball down to the right side with a runner on second base, leading off an inning with a hit, or this 14-pitch at-bat in a crucial spot: A big part of Lukes earning this honourable mention was his ability to tap into a little bit more power in July. He hit five homers, doubling his season total heading into the month. He’s a great example of a guy who seems to be punching a bit above his weight class to lead this team to so many victories. 3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - .333/.443/.500, 3 HR, 19 BB, 17 K, 165 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR Through four months of baseball, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the only Blue Jay to have appeared in the top three in all of our Hitter of the Month articles. We’re still waiting for the power explosion to come for Vladdy, but he really has been consistently productive for essentially the entire season, aside from the first two weeks of July, which really says a lot about his production post-All-Star break. In 12 July games before the All-Star break: 238/.373/.286, 0 HR, 19.6 K% In 13 games after the All-Star break: .407/.500/.667, 3 HR, 10.9 K% It says a lot about the type of season the Jays are having that they went 9-3 in those 12 games before the break. Guerrero's wRC+ is now quietly at 142 on the season, and he’s been looking a lot more like himself at the plate since the break. I’m going to start and end with the point that the hope – as it has been all season – is that Vladdy is just around the corner from a big power surge. I’m talking about the kind where we see him go off for 10 extra base hits in a week, and hopefully he can get close to double-digit homers in both August and September. Blue Jays hitters have already been so good this season. Just imagine how many runs they’re going to score when Vlad finally goes on that extended superstar run. I’m happy to rank him third in July, but hopefully, when I write this article at the end of August, I have no choice but to put Guerrero first. 2. Bo Bichette - .357/.400/.541, 2 HR, 6 BB, 14 K, 161 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR Is this honour being bestowed upon Bo Bichette entirely because of a stretch of nine hits in nine straight at-bats? Not quite, but it certainly helped! Thanks to that run, and in part to Aaron Judge being stuck at 129 due to his IL stint, Bichette now leads baseball in hits with 132, which I think is fairly representative of the type of season he’s having on the whole; he looks just like he did in so many seasons before his injury-riddled 2024. The production with runners in scoring position has been well covered all season, but just to reiterate, his .374 average with RISP still ranks among baseball’s leaders and has led to a team-leading 67 RBI on the season. I tend to fall on the side of the fence that says clutch isn’t real, but it’s hard to deny the fact that Bichette has shown a knack for picking up hits at the right time this season. A final note on Bo: His defence at shortstop has been extremely passable this season. He doesn’t exactly grade out well as a shortstop – his -3 FRV is in just the 22nd percentile in baseball – but he’s made only six errors so far this season, and he’s passing my eye test with flying colours. I’m still not sure I’d give him a big bag of money to play shortstop for many seasons beyond this one, especially with his sprint speed having cratered to the 22nd percentile, but the solid defence has been very encouraging. 1. George Springer - .371/.451/.640, 7 HR, 12 BB, 14 K, 204 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR In the spirit of honesty, I’m running out of words to describe George Springer’s season. At 35 years old, he’s gone from a player we were essentially ready to send to an old age home to the MVP of the Blue Jays. If the season ended today, his 147 wRC+ this season would be one of the best marks of his career, second only to the 2019 season, when a juiced baseball aided him to 39 homers. His 18 homers lead the Blue Jays in 2025, and he’s just one away from matching his total from last season, despite having 200 fewer plate appearances. His OPS is 215 points higher than it was just a year ago, and at .889, it leads qualified Blue Jays. I’m having a hard time not writing extremely profane sentences to describe the way the offence looked without him when he missed three games towards the end of the month after being hit in the head with a 96-mph fastball. This team does not have half the July it had without Springer’s efforts, and he was an easy choice to top the Blue Jays Hitters of the Month list for July. View full article

I break down why I think Jhoan Duran, Cade Smith, Ryan Helsley, and JoJo Romero should be top reliever targets for the Blue Jays at the deadline. View full video