I think the value of Pythagorean wins and run differential is overblown, especially one month into the season. Yeah, good teams win more and tend to have positive run differentials, but a team could run out there with 4 Paul Skenes and a fifth starter that sucks and tanks their run differential (as Bowden did early on last year).
For instance, nearly 20% of the Jays runs currently have been given up by Little, Heineman and Fleming. It's also worth noting the 2025 Jays were 25th in run differential at the end of April.