max silver

Here you are again dazzling us again with your unrelenting sense of optimism. I find myself wondering if there has been a skill change with his control, wouldn't it be hard to fluke your way into a 0.51 BB/9? According the Fangraphs it takes 170 batters faced for walk rates to stabilize, so Hatch has quite a ways to go on that front as he only pitched 35 innings with a whip of 0.76. He likely only faced in the neighbourhood of 75-80 batters total, so there is almost certainly some regression expected here, but even so that's a very impressive walk rate. I am taking the whole narrative about the shoulder inflammation causing the control woes with a bit of a grain of salt as well, but given the arsenal present and nice second half results I would hope for more than middle reliever here.

Sportsnet put up an interesting piece on Thomas Hatch today. It's revealed within that the main reason that his control improved so dramatically after his trade to the Jays was that he was suffering through a pretty severe case of shoulder inflammation for a good part of the season. Once he healed up fully he had a dramatic turnaround in his walk numbers at AA for Toronto. https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-thomas-hatch-finding-success-health-change/ This seems like a guy who is being overlooked by much of the scouting industry. His numbers in New Hampshire are pretty damn impressive, 0.51 BB/9, 2.25 xFIP jump off the page immediately when perusing his numbers. He was hurt a bit by the homerun, but perhaps the 20.8% HR/FB will normalize, previously his high was only 10.4%. It seems he possesses a high spin fastball, effective slider/cutter, and a nice splitter like changeup. What is a realistic ceiling for this guy? I wonder if mid-rotation is attainable by this guy personally, it sounds like he has a lot of good tools at his disposal.

I read that he thinks his new delivery is actually allowing him to utilize his lower half more effectively, and it may have unlocked further velocity for him. The shoulder issue last season was supposedly due to the high frequency of bullpens he was throwing, and just some inflammation without any actual damage, so with that it appears he has been mostly healthy going all the way back to 2016.

When it comes to the Blue Jays the old adage of hoping for the best but expecting the worst in my view is the best way of looking at things. That leads to the possibility of being pleasantly surprised when things go well but not crushed when they inevitably turn to s*** like most years.

I'm hopeful for a good season as well. Our depth starting options this season (Yamaguchi/Kay/Borucki/Murphy/Hatch)are better than most of the actual starting options last year for most of the season. Add in further growth from the young hitters, and a potentially better than expected bullpen, and this team has a good chance to be far better than predicted by the projection systems.

I wouldn't go near something like that if it were up to me. Potentially paying Sale $60 million for the next few seasons for little to no return is incredibly risky. The Jays already have an expensive risky veteran in Ryu on the roster that could easily end up hurt a good chunk of the time, so instead of just tying up $20 million a year for a super variable return, now you have $50 million tied up instead. And there is zero guarantee how Sale would bounce back after surgery either. Makes much more sense to take the money you'd be paying Sale and sign someone with a little less terrifying range out potential outcomes.

No doubt the body composition has to have improved, but the guy should put more effort into dropping some unnecessary weight than seems to have happened up to this point. With his history of knee trouble already continuing to carry around 250+ pounds on his shorter frame really can't be good for his long term well being, regardless of how he's put together. Reports say he didn't change his diet at all, still the same rice and beans diet as before with an increase in strength and conditioning work. The physical work was a good start, but even a few months on a weight loss specific diet would likely do wonders for him.

Mitchell sounds very intriguing, but the diabetes is scary for me. Past diabetics for the Jays include Brandon Morrow and Dustin McGowan, both guys had a hell of a time healing up from even seemingly minor injuries. That certainly adds a layer of risk to this player compared to some other guys that will be available.

It's been a good news bad news kind of off-season for new managerial hire Ron Roenicke. Good news is getting hired in the first place, but it's the result of a cheating scandal, not exactly because you earned a managerial spot after an extensive hiring process. And the bad news has come in spades, with the Red Sox trading away their best player plus one of their better rotation options, and now with the potential long term loss of Sale things look even more bleak.

You could almost substitute Dalton Pompey into your story. At the end he would end up with a concussion after the stack of dimmer switches falls onto his head.

If the stars were to fully align we could see a game where Anthony Gose pitches to Jose Bautista and vice versa. Gose could actually be an interesting player though, pinch runner, backup outfielder, reliever all rolled into one.

Results look very nice. Any word on what his stuff looked like?

Definitely a cool story, we shall see if there is enough left in his bat for the two way player plan to work out for him.

The guy had exactly one season with the Jays where he wasn't a total f***ing disaster, that was 2015. Take a look at his 2016 numbers and tell me if you still think that's a guy that was a big part of a team: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-goins/9807/stats?position=2B/SS I see a guy that put up a 39!!! WRC+, and managed to be worth an impressive -0.8 WAR in only 196 AB. If both Devon Travis and Tulo weren't made of glass he would have received very few at bats if he still manged to stick with the team

You mean the same Ryan Goins who has had exactly one season where he eclipsed the 0.2 WAR mark? I'm not so sure you should be patting yourself on the back too hard for that one all things considered.

Sure that's possible, but I'm not sure I would have the appetite for moving out guys like Groshans or Pearson to acquire similar level talent for the outfield. Even the next tier down of guys like Orelvis Martinez and Alek Monoah would sting to send out in trade come to think of it as well. At my core I'm most likely the prospect hoarding type as well apparently.

I'm not so sure Marcell Ozuna is necessarily the best example for proving your case though. Cole and Strasburg are absolute upper echelon level players, while Ozuna has a variable enough set of expected outcomes that the best offer he could muster was in the 3 year $50 million region. I guess I can concede to your argument that position players have been more willing to just accept the top dollar no matter where it is, guys like Harper and Machado were willing to sign with rebuilding clubs. Sure it took obscene levels of money to sign both of these guys, but that's the price you pay for trying to acquire elite talent through free agency.

With the way that organizations horde their prospects nowadays I'm of the mindset that the only reliable way to acquire young elite outfielders is to obtain them as amateurs. Pretty much every trade for prospects now that occurs has the trading team designating a handful of their guys as untouchable. The lack of elite outfield talent in the minor leagues is pretty much the only nitpick that I have with the Jays current rebuild. Otherwise they have taken all the necessary steps to create a championship caliber talent pipeline, but sooner or later this discrepancy needs to be addressed for the organization to maximize their long term potential.

It seems elite players are hard to acquire through free agency and trade no matter what position they play, best to acquire them as amateurs if at all possible all things considered. So few of the truly elite players even seem to reach free agency at desirable ages anymore with the high frequency of pre free agency extensions this day and age. It's stunning in this day and age when the absolute elite players get traded at all, guys like Mookie Betts being traded was almost unheard of anymore.

I wonder what the Jays criteria are for picking the best player available? The lack of impact outfielders in the system compared to all other positions on the diamond leaves me wondering what their priorities are in drafting and international free agent signings. There are obvious impact infielders, catchers and pitchers throughout the system, but unfortunately there are very few exciting outfield prospects comparatively speaking. Perhaps this is a potential side effect of drafting strictly on best player available where you end up heavy in certain areas and light in others depending on how other teams end up choosing around you in the draft. I imagine some of this pitching/catching/infield depth in the minors can eventually be turned into impact outfielders in the future, but it certainly looks at a glance that the Jays aren't placing enough emphasis on obtaining impact outfield talent in their amateur talent acquisition processes.

Typically I would agree with this, but when you have such an obvious organizational weakness such as the Jays have ended up with then I wonder if a slight shift towards drafting for need may work out. Like if two players are deemed to have similar value, perhaps the tie-breaker can go to the outfielder. Obviously if you deem a pitcher as a future 65 value player, and the outfielder is only a 55 you have to go with best player, but if players are subjectively very close in future value perhaps favouring a bat over a pitcher can work out.

I'm a little torn whether I'd prefer the Jays to take a bat or an arm, but no matter what it's looking like the team will end up with an elite talent with their pick. I sort of find myself hoping the Jays end up with an outfielder with their pick though, there is such a lack of impact talent in the outfield right now throughout the organization that prioritizing the outfield might just be required.

Maybe he's intentionally playing like s*** to tank his value so the Orioles don't pick him up when he ends up on waivers

Sleeper: Julian Merryweather: this is the year we finally see the guy stay on the field and get a first hand look at the stuff. Reports last year had his fastball up to 100 MPH, so far in spring he's been reported to be sitting mid-upper 90's in limited action. He might be able to be a nice mid-season bullpen addition after the Jays finally move on from the silly notion of stretching him out as a starter Dasan Brown: the guy had a decent debut in rookie ball putting up a 148 WRC+. He is a player with tools for days, but is super raw at this point. With potentially 80 grade speed if the bat is even average this guy could still be a star. Bust: Joey Murray: Trick pitch guys always leave me skeptical at best. Murray may have two good pitches with his "invisiball" and a decent curveball, but ultra-low velocity guys like this have a very small margin for error with regards to pitch location. His ultimate test will be in AAA if the Jays are able to find room for him in the rotation there, there is a huge logjam of deserving starters that need innings, Murray is just one of many. I have suspicions he is going to end up exposed in AAA and homeruns are going to be an issue. Hopefully he can prove me wrong. New Legit Guy: Riley Adams: The bat looks to be legit with him beginning to unlock his power potential. Reports about his defense are generally positive as well, including a very high caught stealing percentage. If he keeps the strikeouts under control he has potential to be a good MLB starting catcher very soon.

Not to mention s***ing on other legitimate prospects for no good reason. Cavan Biggio being a nothing prospect despite a nice season in AA immediately springs to mind.