From Enos Sarris:
The Stuff+ model didn’t love Manoah going into the season, projecting a high-threes ERA based on average-ish Stuff+ last season, but it wasn’t alone. Of the four projection systems listed on FanGraphs before the season, three had an ERA projection higher than 3.6, and that was before those systems realized the run environment would be much higher this season. In April, he got a 4.26 ppERA in our projections, but even that has been generous compared to his results.
Even if his movement and velocities didn’t stand out before, they’ve still fallen off this year. It’s multi-faceted. He’s:
[*=left]Lost a tick off the fastball
[*=left]Lost ride on the four-seam and sink on the sinker
[*=left]Lost drop and sweep on the slider
That’s been enough to ding the Stuff+ on all his pitches, but it’s really hurt his slider the most.
He’s improved his sweep before, but that October 2022 number may be a red herring: it’s one start. Otherwise there’s a clear trend towards less sweep over his career, and a lack of a real example of this much trouble with the sweep before recovering. Of the five projection systems at FanGraphs, three have an ERA over 4.18, and ppERA has him with a 4.26 ERA, which is basically league average. It doesn’t look like he’s getting very unlucky with balls in play or strand rate, either, so in leagues where you need to do better than a league average ERA going forward, he’s a sell low.