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RealAccountant

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Everything posted by RealAccountant

  1. 2/30 is pretty good as is 3/45
  2. Now if we can get Moss and Bautista then thats adding 3-4 WAR
  3. Get it done please
  4. Lol Jaysfan2014 has to be more hated here than me
  5. If we make the right moves at least we will be in the Wild Card mix which will make for an exciting year, at this point i would be surprised if the Redsox weren't at least two times the favourites we are for the AL East. Just looking at the Baseball Futures, they are the favourites to win the AL at +220, we are in the second tier after Boston and Cleveland, its Houston, Toronto, New York, Texas,
  6. Well what do you think teams will do to the Jays, Donaldson wont be seeing much. Last few years he has had Bautista and EE following, now its going to be Morales and Tulo. I dont think a career .780 OPS guy will be putting the fear into pitchers. If I am an opposing pitcher pitching to the Jays, once I get by Donaldson its a pretty easy workaround. Especially late in games.
  7. They have the starters the relievers. Really I dont think they need to worry about the offense, that stadium is a bandbox. Even with major injuries they always have a few surprises. I would expect them to have between 95-100 Wins, and I think even if Shatkins comes through we are looking at 85-90 wins
  8. What has Shapiro done overall?
  9. Well I don't agree with that. I reckon though Redsox are a good 10 wins better. It would be different it our front office was committing to winning.
  10. Morrissey on the Fan heavily criticized Jays front office for signing Morales when they did and giving him 3 years. Says he doesn't understand the urgency and thinks Morales probably still out there Also said similar and better hitters to Morales are available for less. Says it's misestimations on the Jays front office part, and they need to do a better job of communicating with free agents and the Market
  11. No it's from December 21st At the letters Google play
  12. I wouldn't count on it. On the year wrapup At the Letters Davidi mentioned that he thinks the likeliest scenerio will be that the team will sign 2 part time Outfielders.
  13. Based on the fact that he cant play any defence. So much for your stand on how important the corner outfield defence is, Moss is projected to be a worse defender than both Saunders and Bautista
  14. You're in for it buddy she is hard to please in bed
  15. Well I've been talking to your wife and she says the same about your love making ability
  16. Must not watch much basketball then.
  17. Stroman is really really good. I think he might even have his best year next year. The best part is his attitude and how quickly he is able to adjust. People forget how good he was down the stretch.
  18. It’s not an outlandish question to ask. Over the last 30 days, which spans five starts and 32.1 innings, Marcus Stroman has posted the third highest strikeout rate in baseball and the lowest SIERA. Five starts is a tiny sample size, of course, but you can’t fake a high strikeout rate. Let’s go back a little further. Since my cherry-picked date of June 14, he has made 12 starts and has posted a strong 25.2% strikeout rate, low 4.2% walk rate, elite 61.5% GB%, and impressive 2.82 SIERA. You know who else has combined that type of strikeout ability, pinpoint control, and serious ability to induce grounders? Nobody. Felix Hernandez is probably the best comp as he has typically posted ground ball rates in the 50% range, while striking out 20%+ of the hitters he faced. But he has only once posted a ground ball rate above 60% in a season and his walk rate never fell below 5.0%. Ground ball pitchers typically throw sinkers often and are the so-called “pitch to contact” types, hoping their defense converts their balls in play into outs around 30% of the time. Up until this recent streak, Stroman had been that type too. He was toward the upper echelon of strikeout artists given his ground ball rate, but was still no better than league average. Despite flashing an assortment of pitches, they simply didn’t generate the swings and misses you would expect. But with the ground ball foundation and good control already there, the potential was apparent for future stardom. Of course, looking at his season as a whole, you wouldn’t think stardom is on its way. Or even close. He owns a poor 4.47 ERA and he hasn’t been able to keep his fly balls in the park. But things have changed during the season. A couple of weeks ago, Eno Sarris looked into the changes he made to his pitch mix, along with the improvement in velocity, movement, and spin. Like I did with Danny Duffy last week, let’s take a look at Stroman’s season before and after my June 14 cut-off date. Marcus Stroman 2016 Performance Date Range GS FB% FBv SL% SLv CT% CTv CB% CBv CH% CHv LD% GB% FB% IFFB% 4/3 – 6/9 13 59.2% 92.0 10.4% 84.7 12.1% 89.6 9.6% 80.3 8.7% 83.9 20.2% 59.2% 20.6% 3.5% 6/14 – 8/21 12 55.6% 92.7 21.0% 87.4 10.2% 89.7 9.4% 81.9 3.7% 86.3 17.8% 61.5% 20.7% 0.0% I decided to highlight anything that went down in red and anything that went up in yellow. Down isn’t automatically bad (like for pitch selection), but it was easier to identify the trend with so many metrics. As Eno noted in his article, Stroman has gained velocity, and it shows in every one of his pitches except his cutter. More velocity is nearly always a good thing. Of course, velocity tends to across as the season progresses, so this isn’t really too surprising. Still, it’s a good sign, and certainly better than stagnant velocity or even a loss. The next big change was that he has doubled the usage of his slider, at the expense of all his pitches. In his only other full season in 2014, his slider generated the highest SwStk% of any of his pitches. It also induced grounders 61% of the time! Whiffs and ground balls? That’s an elite pitch, folks. So it’s about time Stroman, or perhaps the Blue Jays organization, realized this and he now uses it as his primary non-fastball. Although his SwStk% on the pitch is down marginally from 2014, it’s still above average and the best of his secondary pitches. And yet again, it’s a worm-killer, generating a 57.4% ground ball rate. The only real knock on him is his inability to generate pop-ups. That wasn’t a typo — he is still looking for his first pop-up since June 14. Ground ball pitchers generally have low IFFB% marks, but Stroman’s is frighteningly low and offsetting some of the benefit of his strikeouts. Now let’s check on the results of these pitch changes: Marcus Stroman 2016 Performance Date Range GS Hard% F-Strike% SwStk% K% BB% BABIP LOB% HR/FB ERA SIERA 4/3 – 6/9 13 32.4% 58.8% 8.2% 15.7% 7.1% 0.306 64.1% 12.3% 4.13 4.13 6/14 – 8/21 12 32.3% 62.5% 9.9% 25.2% 4.2% 0.320 74.1% 25.0% 3.94 2.82 So far, throwing the slider more often hasn’t suppressed hard contact at all. If you hop over to the HR/FB rate column, you see that despite a nearly identical Hard%, his HR/FB rate has doubled to a ridiculous level. What the slider seemingly has done (and the velocity bump, I’m sure), is boost his SwStk%, and ultimately, his strikeout rate. He is also throwing more first pitch strikes, which has pushed his walk rate down. You can see in the ERA column that it has been easy to overlook what Stroman has done if you weren’t paying attention. That inflated HR/FB rate, paired with a BABIP well above .300 has ensured that his ERA improve by only a minor amount from his pre-June 14 games, leading to a significant ERA/SIERA gap. The high BABIP isn’t entirely bad luck, as I discussed above his embarassing lack of pop-ups that make for near automatic outs. A high ground ball rate also isn’t great for BABIP and ground balls have a much higher BABIP than fly balls do. I’m sure the pop-up issue improves and he’s probably not a true talent .320 BABIP guy. And he’s definitely not a 25% HR/FB rate guy! So what we have in Stroman is what made us all excited in the first place when he debuted a couple of years ago. He possesses a vast repertoire that he’s still playing around with to find his most effective mix. He induces gobs of ground balls, so even with a high 17.8% HR/FB rate on the season, his HR/9 is still well below the league average. His control has always been good and now all these additional sliders have made him an above average strikeout pitcher too. He may just be the perfect pitcher. The best in baseball? It’s certainly possible, at least while Clayton Kershaw remains sidelined. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/marcus-stroman-best-pitcher-in-baseball/
  19. lol Jalen Rose, Its funny he would say that when a top 5 player and a perennial allstar just reupped for less than Max. Jalen Rose is a f***ing idiot
  20. Why is that? I am assuming to make an statement like that you'd have some backing rather then opinions coming out of your *******
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