BlueRocky

I know what I’m watching on Wednesday.

It’s not beyond repair though. Projected Rotation SP1 - Ryu SP 2 - Pearson SP 3 - Shoemaker SP 4 - Roark SP 5 - Anderson SP 6 depth - Thornton Current BP add Hatch, Kay, Borucki, Font, Murphy, Merryweather, SRF and suddenly there’s some variety. Nobody as reliable as Giles, but this BP can work. Romano hopefully emerges as a reliable high leverage guy. Dolis, Font, Yamaguchi, Cole and Gaviglio should not be given high leverage role by default. None of them have earned it.

So Borucki and Font to the bullpen

Someone kindly make a GDT, game is starting @ 6:05 EDT

Here's some preliminaries of gathering info for this draft class, mostly focusing on the top of this crop. This is relevant to our projected 2021 draft pick that could land anywhere from top 5 to mid-1st round. To be frank, the top of this crop is a bit underwhelming on the college side, especially after the ridiculously talented college crop we just saw at 2020. The college pitching still has some easily identifiable studs like Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter (both Vandy products projected to go top 5), but it's difficult to track their progression with a lost season and such small sample of college track record, which is a red flag for all draft scouting in 2021. The college hitting class is average at best. There isn't the Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, or Nick Gonzales caliber hitters or even premium position players like Adley Rutschman, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, or Kris Bryant types. There's no eye popping plus-advanced bats or 60/60 type college hitters you'd like to see at the top of a draft, though with so much lost data it's hard to say one of them won't become that by next spring, I’m looking at McClain and Fabian but if they do breakout like that they definitely won’t be available with our pick. My point is the track record isn't quite there. That said, the college crop is quite strong in the later rounds, which is artificially juiced by a 5 round draft in 2020, leaving many players returning to college for another season. The prep class on the other hand is stronger than last year, and quite honestly more interesting than the college guys to me.There’s some really intriguing bats, especially the middle infield types we didn't see in the 2020 class, as well as your typical crop of high ceiling prep arms. You guys can read the early scouting reports previously posted, but I'd like to highlight names that stand out to me that could fall in our pick range. I'll continue to do this throughout the year, as a primer to prepare for next year's draft. I'd like to bring attention to guys that have real upside and plus tools, rather than names attached to a bunch of safe average/above avg grades. Easy projectability is not exciting to me and I'd avoid picking in the 5-15 range. I want to find potential stars, not bench depth and replacement players. I already mentioned Benny Montgomery, you guys can look him up in my previous post. Here's one college guy you can look at: RHP Gunnar Hoglund 6-4, 220 lbs, L/R Age: 20 School: Ole Miss Conference: SEC Hoglund was taken out of highschool by the Pirates with the 36th overall pick in 2018 and was offered to sign for $1,967,900. He turned it down and went to college, for good reason, as he's possibly a top 10 pick in 2021. The stuff is pretty outstanding as he features three plus pitches with real swinging strike stuff and solid command, an elite slider was added during his time in college. A high-spin FB (2400 RPM+) 90-94 with movement touching 96 as a freshman, two secondary offerings (SL + CU) with elite spin metrics @ 2500 RPM & 1800 RPM. His frame is ideal at 6-4, can still fill-out. Velo has ticked up but has yet to demonstrate the upper-90s velo we see with guys like Hancock & Meyer, but neither has Jack Leiter. Usually velo numbers don't stablize until junior year, but it's promising and trending upwards. I wouldn't be surprise to see him sitting 93-95, T97 by 2021. Though the changeup velo is not the same and it’s hard to project how far his command will polish, the stuff, pitch mix, delivery, and frame reminds me a little bit of Cleveland Indians ace Shane Bieber. In 2020's small sample, Hoglund carved up the SEC in his sophomore year pitching to .205 OBA, 1.16 ERA, 37 K to 4 BB, WHIP 0.943 in 4 starts (23.1 IP). He was completely dominant in all 4 starts as per below, his best start against Xavier where he had 12 K / 2 BB, 0 ER in 6.0 IP. Three straight games he didn’t give up a single ER and pitched 6.0 IP. Baseball America Report from 2018 draft (HS):

It's really early to put judgment down on Vlad. The talent is very special, in terms of what he demonstrated in the minors, his pedigree, and the raw power. Yes it's frustrating to watch his growing pains, I totally understand you guys. It's part of the process of developing young players. But if he figures it out we're talking about a generational franchise player. You don't give up on that after just 126 MLB games, at the age of 21. It's very easy to overreact now and start pointing at his faults. That's just how the general public reacts, and it's possibly the best reason why you don't rush prospects up to the majors as fans fully expect immediate results and sour on guys if they don't produce. I don't blame you guys for acting this way, but patience is necessary for times like this. I'm not even going to use the famous Mike Trout example, it's almost comparing apples to oranges. There was a player that was touted as the #4 prospect by Baseball America's Top 100, he debuted as a 21-year-old, played only two games that season. He proceeded his first season as a 22-year-old playing 43 games and hitting .215/.352/.438, OPS .790 and 101 wRC+. That's even worst than Vlad. He struck out 28.9% and had -0.5 fWAR. Even his second season he only played 37 games hitting .165/.212/.297, OPS .509 and 26 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR. Utter disappointment for such a highly-touted prospect. He switched positions from catcher to first base and two years after his debut, he finally got regular playing time as a 24-year-old and hit .270/.353/.490, OPS .843 and 111 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR. He hit 25 home runs and 92 RBI. It was better but still a far cry from his top prospect status, especially now as a first baseman. Most of you would DFA or trade his ass, as you are voicing for now. And this is after THREE SEASONS from his debut, let alone 1 season like Vlad Jr. You're voicing to give up on the guy and just get some value back when you can. He didn't immediately live up to his hype, in fact after 4 seasons he looks above average at best. It's certainly a bit disappointing. Accumulated value for the first 4 seasons: 0.4 fWAR Now, let's look at his next TEN SEASONS: (25) .262/.350/.528, wRC+ 122, 1.8 fWAR, 30 HR (26) .292/.385/.592, wRC+ 145, 5.7 fWAR, 38 HR (27) .272/.377/.571, wRC+ 134, 3.6 fWAR, 44 HR (28) .344/.470/.664, wRC+ 179, 7.4 fWAR, 41 HR <-- first time All-Star, finished 4th in AL MVP voting (29) .279/.408/.540, wRC+ 143, 4.0 fWAR, 39 HR (30) .277/.406/.549, wRC+ 145, 4.3 fWAR, 33 HR (31) .302/.426/.593, wRC+ 159, 5.3 fWAR, 42 HR <-- second time All-Star, quite a travesty tbh. (32) .269/.372/.535, wRC+ 126, 2.4 fWAR, 32 HR (33) .301/.399/.582, wRC+ 152, 3.3 fWAR, 33 HR <-- finally changed teams (34) .265/.361/.548, wRC+ 128, 2.8 fWAR, 38 HR <-- changed teams again Finished career at 37 years old: 44.1 career fWAR. He played for the Blue Jays for 12 seasons, was a 2 x All-Star, 3 x Silver Slugger, hit 473 home runs. He is forever stapled to our level of excellence and his name is Carlos Delgado. This is just one of many examples of guys with slow starts and why you shouldn't give up on young players. Some of the most beloved players to put on a Blue Jays uniform didn't have a great start to their MLB careers, like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Roy Halladay was another example. Patience gets rewarded and the core of this rebuild is just starting to emerge.

The arm strength clearly wasn’t there. Sitting 90-92 for the first 15 pitches and threw all curveballs as he couldn't trust his FB. Walked three guys to start the game. Got up to 93-95 after the 16th pitch. He topped out at 95 and only hit it once or twice, couldn’t throw a reliable fastball for strikes even on pitch 30. Not ideal but the Angels let him keep pitching until the game was 4-0 and he couldn't record an out. Long term Ohtani will be fine, but he could’ve used an extra month of spring training just to build arm strength and shake off the rust.

It’s a weird season. Now Verlander is injured. Pitchers simply don’t ramp up in 2.5 weeks after sitting for 3 months, that’s not how it works.

They should’ve took out Giles during the first mound visit.

100% agree. The offense was alive, there was some really good starting pitching and we could’ve won all 3 games. Outcome was not ideal but it was a very entertaining series.

It’s a very young team, there will be some growing pains.

Nothing we can do about random Giles injury. We had two chances to win it. 13 hits and great piggyback start by Hatch & Kay. Play like this, we’ll win more often than not. Please figure out the BP.

Clenched

Wow Reese just saved the game

Whatever happens, this game has been very entertaining.

Something went our way at the Trop. Bring it home boys.

Can Santiago Espinal stick???

Safer than me on a weekend after 3 rounds

WOW Espinal clutch dodge

Jansen framed that one

Biggio!

Who is this man?